Core Viewpoint - JPMorgan Chase & Co. is exploring the possibility of offering cryptocurrency trading services to its institutional clients, reflecting a broader trend among major banks to engage more deeply with digital assets [1][2]. Group 1: JPMorgan's Plans - The bank is evaluating potential products and services for its markets division, which may include spot and derivatives trading in cryptocurrencies [2]. - These efforts are in the early stages and are driven by increasing client interest following recent changes in the US regulatory landscape regarding digital assets [3]. Group 2: Regulatory Environment - The evolving regulatory environment, particularly under the current administration, is facilitating banks' roles as intermediaries in the cryptocurrency market [5][6]. - Recent guidance from the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency indicates that US banks can act as intermediaries for crypto transactions, which is a significant shift from previous constraints [6]. Group 3: Industry Trends - Other banks, such as Standard Chartered and Intesa Sanpaolo, have already initiated trading services for institutional clients in cryptocurrencies, indicating a growing acceptance of digital assets within the banking sector [7]. - JPMorgan's shift in attitude towards cryptocurrencies, particularly Bitcoin, is notable given CEO Jamie Dimon's previous skepticism, now adopting a more pragmatic view [6].

Core Insights - Monthly pay ETFs have emerged as a practical innovation in income investing, providing liquidity, yield, and flexibility that traditional dividend stocks and mutual funds often lack [7] Group 1: Monthly Pay ETFs - Monthly pay ETFs are particularly well-suited for baby boomers and Gen X investors nearing retirement, serving as powerful income complements rather than replacements for Treasury bonds [6] - These ETFs allow investors to reinvest monthly dividends, enhancing long-term income potential through dollar-cost averaging [6][17] - The trend of monthly distributions has gained traction over the past decade, with many ETFs now offering this feature, which is significant for retirees and older investors [4][10] Group 2: Specific ETFs Highlighted - BlackRock Science and Technology Trust II (BSTZ) offers a monthly distribution exceeding 11%, appealing to those willing to accept some volatility [1][15] - Gabelli Gold, Natural Resources & Income Trust (GGN) combines gold and energy stocks, paying a monthly dividend above 8%, making it attractive for sector exposure alongside income [2][14] - JPMorgan Equity Premium Income ETF (JEPI) has approximately $30 billion in assets and pays a monthly yield north of 8%, supported by income-focused investors despite some volatility [3][11]

Core Viewpoint - Net Lease Office Properties (NLOP) announced the sale of six office properties for approximately $75.8 million and declared a special cash distribution of $5.10 per common share, totaling around $75.6 million, payable on January 20, 2026 [1][2]. Group 1: Property Sales - NLOP sold six office properties for gross proceeds of approximately $75.8 million [1]. - The properties sold include: - Securitas Electronic Security, Inc. in Plymouth, MN for $5.654 million, with an annual base rent (ABR) of $1.218 million and a size of 182,250 square feet [2]. - JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A. in Tampa, FL for $13.650 million, with an ABR of $1.934 million and a size of 135,733 square feet [2]. - A vacant property in Oak Creek, WI for $2.576 million, previously occupied by Master Lock Company, LLC [2]. - Cohesity Inc. in Roseville, MN for $14.625 million, with an ABR of $2.255 million and a size of 136,125 square feet [2]. - Pioneer Credit Recovery, Inc. in Moorestown, NJ for $6.250 million, with an ABR of $0.931 million and a size of 65,567 square feet [2]. - Another JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A. property in Fort Worth, TX for $33.000 million, with an ABR of $4.850 million and a size of 386,154 square feet [2]. - The total ABR for all properties sold is $11.188 million, with a combined size of 1,026,712 square feet [2]. Group 2: Company Overview - Net Lease Office Properties is a publicly traded real estate investment trust (REIT) that focuses on owning high-quality, primarily single-tenant office properties in the U.S. [3]. - The properties are net leased to corporate tenants across various industries [3].

Group 1 - The U.S. private credit market, once marketed as a "high-dividend safe haven," is now facing severe challenges due to high interest rates, a wave of defaults, and liquidity issues [2] - Blue Owl Capital, managing $180 billion in assets, abruptly withdrew from a $10 billion financing negotiation with Oracle, citing execution risks and Oracle's high leverage, which led to a spike in Oracle's five-year CDS to the highest level since 2009 [2] - The confidence in the "off-balance-sheet financing" model for AI infrastructure has plummeted, jeopardizing the capital expenditure chain of tech giants [2] Group 2 - Business Development Companies (BDCs) targeting retail investors have experienced a "double whammy" this year, with FS KKR Capital's stock price dropping by 33% and BlackRock BDC's default rate rising to 7% [2] - The VanEck BDC ETF has underperformed the S&P 500 by over 20 percentage points this year, indicating significant distress in the sector [2] - BDCs, which once promised monthly dividends, now derive 14% of their income from "payment-in-kind" (PIK), suggesting borrowers are unable to pay cash interest [2] Group 3 - A liquidity trap has emerged, as Blue Owl's attempt to merge private BDCs with public BDCs to alleviate redemption pressure was rejected by shareholders due to a 14% discount to net asset value, resulting in the deal's failure [2] - There is a significant disconnect between public market prices and private valuations, leaving retail investors unable to exit their positions and witnessing the evaporation of their principal [3] - Jamie Dimon's earlier warning about seeing "a cockroach" now appears to be just a glimpse of a larger issue within the $2 trillion private credit market, where retail investors are the last to join but the first to bear the losses [3]

Core Viewpoint - Emerging market bonds and stocks recorded double-digit percentage increases in 2025, with a general positive outlook for 2026 among investors [3][4]. Group 1: Performance of Emerging Markets - Emerging market local currency bonds rose by 18% and stocks increased by 26% in 2025, marking the first time since 2017 that emerging market stocks outperformed U.S. stocks [5]. - The yield spread between emerging market bonds and U.S. Treasury yields narrowed to its lowest level in 11 years [5]. - The Bloomberg Emerging Market Carry Index achieved a return of 16.71% in 2025, the best since 2009 [5]. Group 2: Investor Sentiment - A recent survey by Bank of America involving 300 investors showed a lack of pessimism towards emerging markets, with a significant shift in sentiment [6]. - HSBC's December survey indicated that bearish views on emerging market prospects have completely disappeared, reaching a historical high in net bullish sentiment [6]. - U.S. ETFs focused on emerging market stocks attracted nearly $31 billion in 2025, while emerging market bond funds absorbed over $60 billion [6]. Group 3: Future Outlook for 2026 - Analysts maintain a positive outlook for emerging market assets in 2026, with expectations for high yields and diversification benefits from emerging market bonds [8]. - Focus areas for investment include Central and Eastern Europe, parts of Latin America (like Colombia and Brazil), and Asia (including India, the Philippines, and South Korea) [8]. - The Chinese stock market is expected to see investments in technology sectors and industries with clear advantages, such as the electric vehicle supply chain and renewable energy [8]. Group 4: Economic Context - The global economic growth for developed markets is projected to be around 1% to 1.5%, while emerging markets are expected to show relatively strong growth [10]. - The dollar is anticipated to remain under pressure due to policy divergence and trade tensions, although a short-term rebound is possible [10]. - The investment focus is expected to shift towards global diversification, with emerging markets showing improved fundamentals [10]. Group 5: Currency and Arbitrage Strategies - The trajectory of the U.S. economy is crucial for the sustained strong performance of emerging market currencies [11]. - Investors are advised to consider the potential for continued low volatility in emerging market currencies, which could impact overall returns [13]. - Major financial institutions like JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley predict significant inflows into emerging market bonds due to a weak dollar and the AI investment boom [11].

Core Viewpoint - Emerging market assets are expected to perform well in 2026, with a general consensus among institutions that there is little pessimism regarding these markets [1][4][6]. Group 1: Market Performance - Emerging market local currency bonds have risen by 18% and stocks by 26% in 2025, marking a significant recovery from previous years [3]. - Emerging market stocks have outperformed U.S. stocks for the first time since 2017, and the yield spread between emerging market bonds and U.S. Treasuries has narrowed to its lowest level in 11 years [3]. - The Bloomberg Emerging Market Carry Index has achieved a return of 16.71% this year, the best since 2009 [3]. Group 2: Investor Sentiment - A recent survey by Bank of America involving 300 investors revealed that there is almost no pessimism towards emerging markets [4]. - HSBC's December survey indicated that bearish views on emerging markets have completely disappeared, with net bullish sentiment reaching a historical high [4]. - Strategas estimates that U.S. ETFs focused on emerging market stocks attracted nearly $31 billion in 2025, while emerging market bond funds absorbed over $60 billion [4]. Group 3: Economic Outlook - Emerging markets are expected to benefit from a more accommodative global financial environment and stable internal policies, with growth anticipated to outperform developed economies [6]. - The Asian region is highlighted as a key growth engine, with potential for pro-business governments emerging from elections in Latin America [6]. - Structural trends such as geopolitical reshuffling and supply chain restructuring are expected to favor emerging markets, particularly in Asia [5]. Group 4: Investment Strategies - Emerging market bonds are seen as attractive due to high yields and diversification benefits, with a focus on Central and Eastern Europe, parts of Latin America, and Asia [6]. - Investment in technology sectors and industries with clear advantages, such as the electric vehicle supply chain and renewable energy in China, is recommended [6]. - The outlook for Indian markets is positive, driven by the "Make in India" initiative, which is expected to boost manufacturing and infrastructure [6]. Group 5: Currency and Interest Rate Dynamics - The trajectory of the U.S. economy is crucial for the sustained strong performance of emerging market currencies, with expectations of a slowdown encouraging the Fed to maintain loose monetary policy [9]. - JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley predict that emerging markets will benefit from a weaker dollar and the investment boom in AI [9]. - Emerging market currency volatility is currently low, but there are concerns that unfavorable exchange rate movements could erase gains [11].

证券研究报告 | 行业专题研究 gszqdatemark 2025 12 22 年 月 日 区块链 存款代币：平衡"天才法案"与银行利益 "天才法案"推出后，美国银行家协会公开呼吁修改"天才法案"，认为 "天才法案"框架下挂钩法币的代币会对美国现存的金融系统构成威胁， 银行业担忧代币快速发展可能导致巨额存款外流，推高银行资金成本，削 弱信贷能力，并抬高企业和家庭贷款利率。在此背景下，摩根大通推出存 款代币，在银行流动性管理和代币业务之间做了微妙的平衡。 "天才法案"框架下，会造成银行业的存款流失，甚至"金融脱媒"。某种 程度上，挂钩法币的代币与存款具有类似"法币"的相同特点，但两者的 区别同样明显，这些区别可能对银行业产生一些深远影响。例如，代币对 银行传统信贷业务带来一定冲击，传统银行信贷业务靠息差的盈利模式在 代币发行过程中并不存在，代币发行方获得储备资产的低风险资产收益， 而用户并不会获得任何利息。因此，代币看似避开了信贷风险，但银行发 行代币势必也会失去信贷业务。进而导致的结果是，若将存款转换为代币 的资产储备，将抽走银行体系的存款；若企业长期持有或应用代币，银行 体系也将失去相应的存款（同时失去金融 ...

Core Viewpoint - The SEC's recent decision to allow dual share classes for ETFs and mutual funds marks a significant development in the investment landscape, reflecting the ongoing ETF boom and the increasing adoption of ETFs by traditional money managers [2][4]. Group 1: SEC Announcement - The SEC will permit numerous issuers to offer ETF share classes of mutual funds and vice versa, contingent on no hearings being ordered against the applications [2][6]. - This announcement is the SEC's first on the topic since November, when it approved a proposal from Dimensional Fund Advisors [2]. Group 2: Market Impact - The approval of dual share classes is expected to ignite interest among traditional managers who have not previously engaged in the ETF space, providing them access to new channels [3][4]. - The dual-share-class structure offers benefits such as tax efficiency and liquidity, potentially enhancing mutual fund structures and retirement accounts [4]. Group 3: Operational Challenges - Despite the advantages, traditional managers may face logistical and operational hurdles as they adapt to the ETF model, particularly regarding in-kind custom baskets [4]. - Smaller money managers may need to rely on external expertise to successfully launch their funds, while larger managers may already have the necessary resources [4]. Group 4: Future Considerations - Liquidity will be a critical factor to monitor, as many funds will need to maintain higher cash or liquid asset holdings, which could lead to increased underlying fees [5]. - The SEC's notice applies to 30 asset managers, including major firms like BlackRock, PIMCO, and JPMorgan, with petitions for dual share classes potentially being granted as early as January 12 [6].

美国第二大银行——美国银行(BAC.US)——的股价在12月创下历史新高，终于超过了其在2006年、金 融危机前达到的峰值。美国规模最大的摩根大通(JPM.US)以及第四大的富国银行(WFC.US)的股价目前 也都处在历史高位。花旗集团(C.US)的股价则在七年来首次超过其每股账面价值，但仍较其2000年的历 史峰值低约80%。 一项追踪这些银行及美国另外20家最大放贷机构的关键指数——KBW银行指数(BKX)——今年迄今已 上涨29%，跑赢标普500指数13个百分点。富国银行分析师迈克.梅奥(Mike Mayo)表示："这无疑比我们 年初预期的上涨空间更大。"他补充称："大型银行在2026年将再次跑赢大盘。" 美国最大的银行正在以强势姿态结束2025年——股价创下历史新高，资产负债表规模更大，同时享有过 去15年来前所未有的监管自由度。在未来几年里，这个行业及其头部机构计划把这股势头转化为一段持 续的增长故事。 与此同时，自2025年年初以来，摩根大通的市值已增加约2000亿美元，使其更接近成为全球首家市值达 到1万亿美元的银行。自2019年以来，摩根大通一直向投资者承诺，在整个经济周期中实现17%的 RO ...

Core Viewpoint - Emerging markets are expected to become favored by Wall Street by early 2026, with asset management firms betting on a prolonged inflow cycle that has already begun [1][3] Group 1: Market Performance - Capital inflows into emerging markets this year have reached the best performance since 2009, indicating a shift in investor sentiment towards this previously underperforming asset class [1] - Emerging market stocks have outperformed U.S. stocks for the first time since 2017, and the yield spread between emerging market bonds and U.S. Treasuries has narrowed to the lowest level in 11 years [1] - JPMorgan forecasts that emerging market bond funds could see inflows of up to $50 billion next year, with expectations of price appreciation and yield benefits from local currency bonds [4] Group 2: Investor Sentiment - A recent investment conference by Bank of America revealed that nearly all investors are optimistic about emerging markets, with no significant pessimism reported [3] - AllianceBernstein's Sammy Suzuki noted a shift in perception, stating that questions about the investment value of emerging markets have diminished [3] - Gama Asset Management's Rajeev De Mello believes there is still room for significant over-allocation towards emerging markets [5] Group 3: Global Capital Flows - There is a potential fundamental shift in global capital flows, with portfolio managers eager to diversify away from the U.S. and attracted by progress in debt reduction and inflation control in developing countries [3] - Despite recent rebounds, the overall scale of capital inflows remains relatively small compared to previous outflows, indicating that emerging markets still have insufficient representation in global portfolios [4] Group 4: Risks and Challenges - The recent rebound in emerging markets may mask underlying vulnerabilities, particularly concerning the U.S. dollar, which has declined by 8% this year, providing support for emerging market assets [6] - Citigroup suggests that investors should only buy emerging market assets that can withstand a potential strengthening of the dollar [6] - As of mid-December, emerging market bond funds saw a significant inflow of $4 billion, marking the largest weekly inflow since July [7]