格隆汇2月10日｜摩根大通策略师表示，软件股有望从历史性跌势中反弹，因为市场目前对人工智能带 来的短期颠覆性影响定价过高。由杜布拉夫科·拉科斯-布亚斯领导的团队认为，投资者应增持高质量及 对人工智能具有韧性的软件股，因为"极端的价格走势"可能促使资金轮动重回该板块，至少短期内如 此。"考虑到仓位调整已较充分、市场对AI颠覆软件业的看法过于悲观，以及企业基本面依然稳固，我 们认为风险平衡正日益向反弹倾斜，"该团队在一份报告中写道。该团队表示，目前尚不清楚传统软件 公司长期是否会被人工智能取代，但认为当前市场对颠覆性影响的悲观情绪"目前反应过度"。该团队补 充称，软件公司第四季度财报迄今总体表现积极，分析师预计2026年盈利将增长16.8%。 ...

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs was the leading financial adviser by deal value for construction sector M&A in 2025, advising on deals worth $43.3 billion [1] - Bank of America ranked second with $41.9 billion in construction M&A deals [1] - JPMorgan ranked third by value with $35.5 billion, followed by Morgan Stanley at $28.3 billion and Mizuho Financial Group at $24.4 billion [2] Group 2 - JPMorgan led by volume with 19 transactions, while Bank of America followed with 16 deals, and Goldman Sachs advised on 15 deals [2] - Both JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs saw close to a three-fold increase in deal volume and value in 2025 compared to the previous year, improving their rankings significantly [3] - Goldman Sachs moved from sixth to first by value, while JPMorgan jumped from 22nd to first by volume [3] Group 3 - GlobalData's league tables are based on real-time tracking of various reliable sources, with a dedicated team of analysts monitoring these sources for in-depth deal details [4] - The company also seeks submissions of deals from leading advisers to enhance data robustness [5]

2026年A股市场将如何演绎？投资者应采取何种策略？近日，21世纪经济报道记者专访了摩根大通中国 内地及香港地区股票策略研究主管刘鸣镝。 刘鸣镝表示，若"反内卷"取得实质性成效，2026年A股市场有望迎来一轮上行行情，投资者信心或将发 生根本性转变。其核心驱动力在于企业盈利能力的持续改善，而这将支持资产回报及估值的可持续性。 刘鸣镝以日本股市为例，指出日本东证指数（TOPIX）在过去十二年间上涨了约两倍，但其每股营业额 以美元计价并未显著成长，关键在于企业净利润率从约3%上升到7%。她认为，中国企业正走在相似的 道路上，通过减少无效竞争、优化资本开支、稳定及提升股东回报，以逐步摆脱"增收不增利"的困境。 在行业方面，刘鸣镝重点关注地产、材料与信息技术（IT）。她认为，若年内地产出现更强的企稳信 号，尤其是一线城市政策进一步放宽，可能为市场带来惊喜。材料行业则与全球宏观关联紧密，配置方 向主要包括美元以外的贵金属，以及与新能源相关的重要金属。对于信息技术板块，她短期观点相对谨 慎，主因在于当前A股IT行业估值不低，且2025年第四季度预期较高，或需待预期修正后，寻找布局机 会。 进入2026年，A股市场正站在一 ...

Core Viewpoint - The housing market is expected to see home prices remain flat in 2026, with a 0% growth forecast, as efforts to improve affordability have minimal impact [1] Supply and Demand Dynamics - A slight improvement in demand is anticipated to offset an increase in supply, leading to stable home prices [2] - The Federal Reserve's expected reduction in adjustable-rate mortgages may help buyers, despite the 30-year fixed rate remaining above 6% [2] - Homebuilders are likely to continue offering rate buydowns to reduce mortgage costs and clear unsold inventory [2] Price Trends - Home prices showed a 1.9% increase in November year-over-year, a decline from 4.8% growth in October [3] - Regions with significant supply growth during the pandemic, particularly the West Coast and Sun Belt, are experiencing price declines [4] - Texas home prices have decreased by 2.4% and Florida home prices by 5.1% year-over-year, reflecting market weaknesses [5] Market Supply Analysis - JPMorgan estimates a shortfall of approximately 1.2 million homes in the U.S., although this is lower than the consensus view due to recent supply growth [6] - Historical data indicates that housing completions have generally matched household formation over the past 30 years [6] Policy Impact - President Trump's proposed ban on institutional investors purchasing single-family homes is unlikely to significantly affect the market, as they represent only 1%-3% of transactions [8] - The ban could potentially tighten overall supply by limiting the entry of rental homes into the market [9] - Trump's directive for Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae to purchase up to $200 billion in mortgage-backed securities may only reduce rates by 10-15 basis points, which is minimal compared to the overall $14.5 trillion mortgage market [10] Builder Strategies - Many homebuilders are already offering mortgage rate buydowns of 100 to 200 basis points below prevailing rates, suggesting that further reductions in market rates may not significantly boost demand [11] - Trump's preference for rising home prices indicates a reluctance to implement measures that would lower them, as he believes that increased home values contribute to wealth [12][13]

JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE:JPM) is included among the 10 Most Profitable Undervalued Stocks to Buy HSBC Upgraded JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) to Hold from Reduce and Set a New $319 Price Target On February 5, 2026, HSBC upgraded JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE:JPM) to Hold from Reduce and set a new $319 price target, following suit on other analyst rating upgrades after the stock’s recent weak performance. A few days earlier, on February 3, 2026, Baird analyst David George upgraded JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE:J ...

Core Insights - Equity markets are showing potential for more stocks to join the $1 trillion club, supported by strong fundamentals and market optimism [1][2] Group 1: Eli Lilly (NYSE: LLY) - Eli Lilly is the closest candidate to reach the $1 trillion market capitalization, currently at approximately $948.6 billion, needing a gain of about 5.4% [3] - The growth is driven by increasing demand for its GLP-1 portfolio, particularly Mounjaro for diabetes and Zepbound for obesity, with revenue growth exceeding 40% year over year [3][4] - Management has provided a 2026 revenue guidance of $80 billion to $83 billion, significantly above market expectations, supported by expanded supply and improved manufacturing capacity [4][6] Group 2: JPMorgan Chase (NYSE: JPM) - JPMorgan Chase, with a market capitalization of about $877.7 billion, requires a gain of roughly 14% to reach the $1 trillion milestone, making it a credible contender in the financial sector [7] - The bank's latest earnings reflect strength across investment banking, trading, and consumer businesses, despite increased technology spending and balance sheet adjustments [9] - Management anticipates easing expense pressures and stable revenues, with expectations for U.S. interest-rate cuts later in 2026 alleviating concerns over net interest income volatility [9][10]

中国经济网北京2月9日讯 智通财经网消息《摩根大通减持药明康德(02359)约79.81万股 每股作价约109.15港元》显示，香港联交所最新 资料显示，2月3日，摩根大通减持药明康德(02359.HK)79.8119万股，每股作价109.1481港元，总金额约为8711.32万港元。减持后最新持股 数目约为3524.51万股，最新持股比例为6.90%。 摩根大通2月3日减持套现合计8711.32万港元。 (责任编辑：徐自立) | | | | 公布时间 | 机构 | 持仓类型 | 买入/卖出涉及的股数(股) | 每股平均价 | 变动后数量 | 变动后持股率(%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | (港元) | (股) | | | 2026-02-03 摩根大通公司 | | 好仓 | -798, 119 | 109.1481 | 35, 245, 132 | 6.90 | | 2026-02-02 摩根大通公司 | | 好仓 | 1, 490, 412 | 109. 281 | 36, 043, 251 | 7.06 | 资料显示，摩 ...

Core Viewpoint - The global metal market is entering a consolidation phase after months of upward momentum, but this does not signify the end of the bull market. The current adjustment is seen as a necessary pause in a long-term upward trend, with copper expected to rebound before gold in the second quarter [1][10]. Summary by Sections Gold Market - Recent gold price movements are characterized as a typical short-term pullback rather than the end of a long-term uptrend. Technical indicators show signs of momentum exhaustion, predicting a wide-ranging holding pattern for gold prices in the coming weeks or months [2][4]. - Key resistance levels for gold are identified at $5000 and the $5100-$5150 range, which may limit short-term price rebounds [2]. Copper Market - The recent slowdown in LME copper prices after reaching above $14,000 has raised concerns about whether copper prices have detached from fundamentals [6]. - Analysis indicates that current copper price increases imply a global manufacturing PMI of around 53, while the actual PMI is only about 50.5. This suggests that copper prices may be overly optimistic but reflect a collective bet on a cyclical recovery [7][8]. - The report highlights that the correction in copper prices is more of a technical adjustment rather than a collapse of fundamental expectations [8]. Market Strategy - Morgan Stanley predicts that basic metals will receive more support than precious metals during the consolidation phase. While both require consolidation, the driving forces differ, with gold facing profit-taking pressures and copper benefiting from strong cyclical momentum [10]. - Specific tactical support levels are suggested for investors: for copper, the $12,074-$12,105 range is seen as initial support, while the $11,100-$11,200 range is crucial for maintaining a long-term bullish structure. For gold, key buy zones are identified at $4,500 and the $4,264-$4,381 range [11]. Conclusion - The report concludes that while the metal market is currently in a pause, it is not the end of the upward trend. Investors are advised to focus on manufacturing cycle recovery signals and position themselves in basic metals at technical support levels to capture the next wave of price increases [11].

在经历了数月的单边上扬与狂热追逐后，全球金属市场似乎撞上了"天花板"。 面对近期价格的剧烈波动，华尔街顶级投行摩根大通（J.P. Morgan）在新近发布的技术策略报告中发出明确信号： 金、银、铜等主要金属品种在未来几周都 将进入"盘整期"。 然而， 这并非牛市的终结 。在摩根大通全球市场策略团队分析师Jason Hunter看来， 当前的调整是长期上涨趋势中的必要休整。 他表示，对于精明的交易者而言，关键的博弈点在于"分化"： 相比于黄金典型的"冲高回落"形态，基本金属（尤其是铜）得益于全球制造业周期的支撑，其基 本面逻辑更为坚实，预计将在二季度先于黄金开启反弹。 铜的"预期差"：PMI数据背后的真相 黄金：从"抛物线"到"宽幅震荡" "我们认为近期金价的走势，是典型的短期冲高回落反转，而非长期涨势的终结阶段。"摩根大通技术策略师Jason Hunter在报告中写道。 Hunter表示，技术图表显示，黄金价格在经历了抛物线式的上涨后，动能已出现明显的衰竭迹象。他预测，金价将在未来数周甚至数月内形成一个宽幅震荡 的"持有模式"（Holding pattern）。在此期间，5000美元关口及5100-5150美 ...

金属狂欢暂停，但舞曲未终。在这个"中场休息"阶段，盲目追高黄金可能面临数月的震荡折磨。相反，盯着制造业周期的复苏信号，在技术支撑位布局 基本金属，或许是捕捉下一轮上涨浪潮的最佳策略。 在经历了数月的单边上扬与狂热追逐后，全球金属市场似乎撞上了"天花板"。面对近期价格的剧烈波动，华尔街顶级投行摩根大通（J.P. Morgan）在2 月5日发布的技术策略报告中发出明确信号：金、银、铜等主要金属品种在未来几周都将进入"盘整期"。 然而，这并非牛市的终结。在摩根大通全球市场策略团队分析师Jason Hunter看来，当前的调整是长期上涨趋势中的必要休整。 Hunter表示，技术图表显示，黄金价格在经历了抛物线式的上涨后，动能已出现明显的衰竭迹象。他预测，金价将在未来数周甚至数月内形成一个宽幅 震荡的"持有模式"（Holding pattern）。在此期间，5000美元关口及5100-5150美元区域将构成沉重的阻力，限制金价的短期反弹空间。 尽管短期面临技术性回调，但支撑黄金牛市的核心逻辑——"货币贬值"（Debasement）主题依然完好。报告特别指出，美元指数（DXY）持续在100关 口下方运行，这是一个关键的长 ...