After six weeks of waiting, the Fed delivers its next rate move. Plus, JPMorgan's big spending. ...

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley predicts that Broadcom's AI revenue will exceed $50 billion in fiscal year 2026, driven by the continued ramp-up of Google's TPU and new orders from Meta [1][2][3] Group 1: Short-term Performance - Strong demand for AI networking and custom ASICs is expected to drive Broadcom's revenue for the October quarter and January quarter guidance above market consensus [1][2] - For the upcoming October quarter (F4Q25), revenue is projected to exceed $17.5 billion, with AI revenue expected to reach over $6.6 billion, surpassing the market expectation of $6.2 billion [2][6] - January quarter guidance is anticipated to exceed $19 billion, significantly higher than the market consensus of $18.5 billion, supported by ongoing demand for Google TPU and Meta MTIA projects [2][6] Group 2: Long-term Growth Potential - Broadcom is expected to achieve approximately $20 billion to $21 billion in AI revenue for fiscal year 2025, representing a year-over-year growth of about 60% [3] - The growth is primarily driven by the ongoing iteration of Google's TPU project, with the current TPU v6 3nm (Ironwood) chip in mass production and the next-generation TPU v7 expected to ramp up in mid-2026 [3][5] Group 3: Non-AI Business and Synergies - Broadcom's traditional semiconductor business is gradually improving due to cyclical trends, while VMware's software infrastructure continues to show strong momentum [7] - The report highlights the accelerating revenue synergies from VMware as large enterprise customers renew contracts and upgrade to higher-priced VCF full-stack solutions [7] - Broadcom's strong fundamentals in AI, combined with aggressive synergies in its software business, create a unique investment logic [7] Group 4: Financial Performance and Cash Flow - Broadcom is expected to achieve strong double-digit free cash flow growth, supporting future dividend increases [7] - The company is anticipated to announce a double-digit dividend increase during the earnings call, with strong cash flow also aiding in deleveraging and reducing interest expenses [7]

格隆汇12月10日｜摩根大通首席中国股票策略师表示，预计随着估值正常化以及遏制产能过剩的举措提 振关键行业的盈利能力，MSCI中国指数将进一步反弹。到2026年底，MSCI中国指数将上涨约18%，沪 深300指数将上涨约12%。MSCI香港指数在资本流动和房地产市场情绪最终复苏的支撑下，涨幅可达 18%。她还表示，预计明年三大指数的盈利增长率将在9%至15%之间。另外，汇丰私人银行周二将恒生 指数的目标设定为到2026年底达到31000点，较周二收盘价上涨22%。该行指出，流动性增强和盈利趋 势良好。中国提振内需的举措有望提振企业利润率，而香港企稳的房地产市场、不断扩大的零售活动、 日益活跃的IPO项目以及旅游业的增长，预计将支撑香港的经济复苏。 来源：格隆汇APP ...

Market Overview - US stock market showed cautious trading ahead of the Federal Reserve's last meeting of the year, with the Dow Jones down 0.38%, S&P 500 down 0.09%, and Nasdaq up 0.13% [1] - Market expectations indicate a high probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve, with the FedWatch tool showing a probability of 89.4%, significantly up from less than 67% a month ago [1] Banking Sector - JPMorgan Chase's stock fell 4.66%, marking its largest drop since April, due to higher-than-expected spending projections for 2026 [2] - The financial sector overall faced pressure, with the financial ETF down 0.37% [2] Technology Sector - Performance among major tech stocks was mixed, with the US Tech Giants Index up 0.14% [2] - Notable movements included Tesla and Google rising over 1%, while Meta fell 1.48% and Apple and Nvidia saw slight declines [2][3] Chinese Stocks - Chinese stocks experienced a collective decline, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index down 1.37% [4] - Baidu led the decline with a drop of over 4%, while other companies like Beike and Xinyi Technology also saw significant losses [4][5] Silver Market - Silver prices surged, with spot silver up 4.33% to $60.653 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures rising 4.72%, both reaching historical highs [6] - Factors contributing to this rise include low silver inventories and strong industrial demand, with a projected structural supply gap of approximately 9.5 million ounces by 2025 [6][7] AI Industry Developments - Meta announced a delay in the release of its next-generation AI model, "Avocado," to Q1 2026, potentially shifting to a proprietary model [8] - Major tech companies, including Google, Microsoft, and Amazon, formed the "AI Agent Foundation" to establish open-source standards for AI technology [8] SpaceX IPO Plans - SpaceX is accelerating its IPO plans, aiming to raise over $30 billion with a target valuation of approximately $1.5 trillion, potentially becoming the largest IPO in history [9] - The company expects revenues of $15 billion in 2025, increasing to $22-24 billion in 2026, with its Starlink business as a key growth driver [9] Mining Sector Consolidation - Anglo American and Teck Resources' merger proposal received overwhelming shareholder approval, with 99.2% in favor, aiming to create a $50 billion market cap company focused on copper mining in Chile and Peru [10] Regulatory and Geopolitical Developments - The European Commission has initiated an antitrust investigation into Google regarding its use of online content for AI training [11] - In geopolitical news, Ukraine's President expressed willingness to hold elections and submit a revised peace plan to the US, indicating new developments in the Russia-Ukraine situation [11]

【导读】美股三大股指涨跌不一，摩根大通发出成本预警 隔夜美股三大股指涨跌不一，投资者预计即便美联储本周降息，仍可能释放偏鹰派信号。大型科技股涨跌不一，摩根大通警告2026年支出将大幅增加，拖 累银行股表现，限制大盘涨幅。特朗普在最新访谈中表示，支持立即大幅降息将成为其选择新任美联储主席的关键标准。 道指、标普指数收跌 美东时间12月9日（周二），美股三大指数收盘涨跌不一。截至收盘，道琼斯工业指数下跌0.38%，报47560.29点；纳斯达克指数上涨0.13%，报23576.49 点；标普500指数下跌0.09%，报6840.51点。 美联储周二已启动为期两天的政策会议，尽管通胀率仍高于2%的目标，交易员普遍预计本周将降息25个基点。 近期，一部分官员担忧通胀卷土重来，另一些人则更担忧劳动力市场的健康状况。美国劳工部最新发布的报告显示，10月职位空缺小幅上升，但招聘仍然 疲软；此外，美国独立企业联合会（NFIB）的报告显示，企业计划在未来增加岗位的意愿有所提升。 ClearBridge经济与市场策略主管Jeff Schulze表示，当前市场倾向认为，美联储会因职位空缺数据而略显鹰派。 芝商所FedWatch观察 ...

Market Dynamics - The U.S. government is considering lowering tariffs on certain American goods while emphasizing that the use of import tariffs is attracting investment and revitalizing long-dormant industries such as automotive and semiconductor manufacturing [1] - The White House has indicated that support for significant interest rate cuts will be a key criterion in selecting the new Federal Reserve Chair, with the National Economic Council Director stating that the Fed has "ample room for rate cuts" [1] - U.S. stock indices closed mixed ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, with Morgan Stanley's stock dropping over 4%, impacting the Dow Jones [1] - Silver prices surged, with spot silver reaching $60.641 per ounce, marking a historical high, and COMEX silver futures rising to $61.16 per ounce [1] Company Announcements - Zhongke Shuguang and Haiguang Information announced the termination of their merger and fundraising plans due to the large scale of the transaction and changes in market conditions [3] - China Construction Bank announced the completion of a private placement of approximately 11.589 billion A-shares, increasing its registered capital from RMB 250.011 billion to RMB 261.6 billion [4] - Southbound funds recorded a net purchase of approximately HKD 531 million, with Tencent and Xiaomi receiving significant net inflows [5] Economic Insights - Nearly 200 A-share listed companies have reported "full orders" or "industry prosperity," particularly in machinery, electronics, and power equipment sectors, indicating a new round of industrial prosperity [5] - China Investment Corporation reported a net profit of $140.638 billion for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 30.39%, with investment income rising by 40.84% [5] Industry Developments - The U.S. government will allow NVIDIA to sell its H200 AI chips to China, imposing a 25% fee per chip, which may accelerate domestic AI chip development in China [6] - Google is developing two types of AI glasses to compete with Meta, with the first model expected to launch in 2026 [7] - The Chinese government is promoting new consumption models and scenarios to enhance domestic demand [8] - The CFM flash memory market report indicates a significant supply shortage for server eSSD and DDR5 RDIMM, with prices expected to rise substantially [10]

We start off with today's big reversal in JP Morgan shares plunging into the red midday after the company's consumer banking chief told investors that 2026 expenses will rise to $ 105 billion. That's more than 10% higher than this year, more than what analysts were forecasting. Those comments at the Goldman Sachs Financial Services Conference pulling down other bank names like Bank of America, Wells Fargo, and City.Our Leslie Picker is here on set with more on this. It was a big decline for those comments. ...

周二给投资者带来的震动与2022年的一幕如出一辙，当时该公司的成本指引曾导致股价下跌。随后的强 烈反应促使首席执行官杰米.戴蒙及其团队举行了一次投资者日活动，就其支出计划提供更多说明，最 终安抚了股东。 富国银行分析师迈克.梅奥在周二的一份报告中表示，更高的支出可能有助于这家美国最大的银行加深 其竞争优势，但他警告称，这对整个行业是"负面"消息，因为"其他银行可能需要花费更多来争夺市场 份额，形成多米诺骨牌效应"。 交易业务展望 摩根大通(JPM.US)的玛丽安.莱克表示，该行预计明年的支出将达到1050亿美元，这一展望超出了分析 师的预期，并导致其股价周二下跌。 莱克周二在高盛集团的一次会议上表示，预期成本增长的最大驱动因素是"与业务量和增长相关的支 出"。她还指出了战略投资以及"通胀的结构性影响"。 周二，摩根大通股价在纽约下跌4.7%，至300.51美元，创下八个月来的最大跌幅。这使得该行成为 KBW银行指数中表现最差的成分股。 这一指引甚至高于分析师得出的最高预期，并超过1011亿美元的平均预期。约1050亿美元的成本也将比 分析师对2025年费用的预期高出约9%。该行今年前九个月的非利息支出较202 ...

特朗普突然释放重磅信号。 | $300.51 -14.70 -4.66% | | --- | | 318.80 | 今开:314.95 | 成交量：1790.52万股 | 换手:0.66% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 300.02 | 昨收:315.21 | 成交额：54.65亿 | 振幅:5.96% | | 高: 322.25 | 量比： 2.26 | 市盈率(TTM)： 14.10 | 市净率： 2.27 | | 任: 202.16 | 委比： -66.67% | 市盈率(静)：13.99 | 市销率:3.09 | | 益: 21.32 | 股息(TTM)：5.63 | 包手股数:1 | 总市值:8180.67 | | 资产： 124.96 | 股息率(TTM)：1.78% | 最小价差：0.01 | 总股本： 27.22亿 | | 设: -- | Beta: -- | 空头回补天数： -- | 货币单位：USD | 特朗普最新发声 当地时间12月9日，美国政治新闻网站Politico报道，特朗普明确表示，支持大幅降息将成为他挑选下一任美联储主席的决定性因素。 在最新的采访 ...

Market Overview - The three major indices showed mixed performance as the market awaits the upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate decision, with a rate cut expected but concerns about hawkish guidance lingering [1] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 179.03 points, a decrease of 0.38%, closing at 47,560.29 points; the Nasdaq rose by 30.58 points, an increase of 0.13%, closing at 23,576.49 points; the S&P 500 dropped by 6.00 points, a decrease of 0.09%, closing at 6,840.51 points [1] - Technology stocks performed relatively well, supporting a slight increase in the Nasdaq, with notable gains from Micron Technology (up over 2%), Adobe, Broadcom, Tesla, and Google (each up over 1%) [1] European and Asian Markets - In Europe, the DAX 30 index rose by 116.64 points, an increase of 0.49%, closing at 24,162.65 points; the FTSE 100 index fell by 3.08 points, a decrease of 0.03%, closing at 9,642.01 points; the CAC 40 index dropped by 55.92 points, a decrease of 0.69%, closing at 8,052.51 points [2] - In Asia, the Nikkei 225 index increased by 0.14%, while the KOSPI index fell by 0.27%, the BSE SENSEX dropped by 0.51%, and the Indonesian Composite index decreased by 0.61% [2] Commodities and Cryptocurrencies - Precious metals saw significant gains, with spot silver breaking the $60 mark, reaching a historic high of $60.67 per ounce, while COMEX gold futures rose by 0.44% to $4,236.45 per ounce [3] - In the cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin increased by 2.28% to $92,708, and Ethereum rose by 6.15% to $3,316.78 [3] Macro Economic Insights - Kevin Hassett, a potential candidate for the next Federal Reserve Chair, indicated that there is "ample space" for further rate cuts, suggesting a possibility of cuts exceeding 25 basis points if inflation remains stable [4] - The demand for the recent auction of 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds was strong, with a high yield of 4.175%, the highest since August, despite the yield remaining near a three-month high [4] Employment Data - The JOLTS report indicated that job vacancies rose to 7.67 million in October, while layoffs reached a two-year high of 1.85 million, primarily in the accommodation and food services sector [5][6] - The report also showed a significant decrease in hiring, with a drop of 218,000 jobs to 5.15 million, indicating a cooling labor market [6] Investment Trends - Investors are increasingly moving into U.S. money market funds, with a net inflow of approximately $104.75 billion, reflecting a defensive stance ahead of the Federal Reserve's policy announcement [7] - U.S. equity funds experienced a net outflow of about $3.52 billion, marking the second consecutive week of withdrawals as investors favor safer assets [7] Company-Specific News - JPMorgan Chase's projected spending for next year is expected to reach $105 billion, exceeding analyst expectations, which led to a 4.7% drop in its stock, the largest single-day decline since April [9] - PepsiCo has reached a strategic reform agreement with activist investor Elliott Management, which includes cutting 20% of its product line in the U.S. and closing three factories to address performance issues [10]