Market Performance - As of February 10, US stock indices showed mixed performance, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising by 0.7% to reach a new high, while the Nasdaq and S&P 500 indices turned positive with increases of 0.09% and 0.2% respectively [1] - The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index experienced a significant drop, falling over 1% at one point, while major tech stocks showed varied performance, with Google down over 2% and Nvidia and Meta also declining, whereas Tesla, Microsoft, and Amazon saw gains [1] Company Specifics - Alphabet, Google's parent company, has initiated its first bond issuance in Swiss Francs, including bonds with maturities of 3, 6, 10, 15, and 25 years, and is also launching its first bond issuance in British Pounds with maturities of 3, 6, 15, 32, and 100 years, both expected to be priced later the same day [3] - In the tech sector, TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company) saw its stock rise by 1.49%, reaching a new high, while other companies like Alibaba and Oracle also reported gains of 1.95% and 3.24% respectively [2][3] Economic Commentary - Former President Trump expressed optimism about the stock market, predicting that the Dow Jones Industrial Average will reach 100,000 points by January 2029, attributing the market's rise to his tariff policies [5] - In contrast, Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, warned of a potential collapse in the US economy, citing significant debt imbalances and suggesting that investors should allocate 5%-15% of their portfolios to gold as a hedge against currency devaluation [6]

标普 500 软件与服务指数自 1 月末以来已下跌约 13%，在截至上周四的一周内，市值蒸发近1 万亿美 元。 安硕科技软件 ETF 今年以来市值已蒸发近20%。 散户投资者借机逢低吸纳大型科技股。万达研究数据显示，上周五亚马逊出现自 2024 年 8 月以来最大 单日散户净买入，规模超过 AI 芯片巨头英伟达。 在上周大幅抛售之后，散户投资者大举买入软件与科技类股票，基本无视人工智能模型进步可能颠覆部 分行业的担忧。 根据万达研究（Vanda Research）数据，截至周一收盘，贝莱德旗下安硕扩展科技软件行业 ETF 在一个 月滚动期内的净流入资金达到创纪录的 1.76 亿美元，这家分析公司称，这一流入规模是 2024 年末峰值 的两倍多。 上周，人工智能公司 Anthropic 为其 Claude Cowork 智能助手推出插件，重新引发市场担忧：快速发展 的人工智能系统可能侵蚀传统软件公司的核心业务，全球市场因此受到冲击。 责任编辑：郭明煜 在上周大幅抛售之后，散户投资者大举买入软件与科技类股票，基本无视人工智能模型进步可能颠覆部 分行业的担忧。 根据万达研究（Vanda Research）数据，截至 ...

据中证报报道，三星电子将于本月下旬，即农历新年假期结束后，开始向英伟达批量供应HBM4高带宽 存储芯片。此举标志着全球范围内HBM4芯片首次实现大规模量产与交付。据行业确认，三星已完成全 部HBM4芯片的认证流程，交付节奏与英伟达新一代人工智能加速器的研发及发布周期高度协同。 中证报指出，新一轮AI硬件升级浪潮不仅推高了先进芯片的需求，也正深刻重塑整个存储产业链的供 需格局。HBM技术的出现，可以说是存储领域的一次革命。AI的火热，令HBM成了紧俏货。 2026年被视为"HBM超级周期"元年，全球HBM3E/HBM4产能已被英伟达、AMD及云厂商预订至2027年 Q1，供需缺口高达50%-60%。数据显示，未来HBM市场将以每年42%的速度增长，将从2023年的40亿 美元增长到2033年的1300亿美元。到2033年，HBM将占据整个DRAM市场的一半以上。 *风险提示：股市有风险，入市需谨慎 公司方面，据中证报表示，A股相关概念股有飞凯材料、太极实业等。 *免责声明：文章内容仅供参考，不构成投资建议 ...

Market Overview - The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged over 270 points to 50,407, marking a record high, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq experienced slight declines of 0.09% and 0.42% respectively, indicating a rotation into blue-chip and defensive stocks [24][2] - Retail sales for December were flat at $735 billion, significantly below expectations, suggesting a cooling economy and impacting market sentiment [8][25] - The upcoming US jobs report and inflation data are critical for market direction, with expectations that a softer jobs number could reinforce the Dow's leadership [22][24] Sector Performance - The Dow's strength is attributed to its composition, favoring established companies in industrials, consumer staples, healthcare, and dividend payers, which tend to perform well in a slowing growth environment [2][3] - In contrast, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are heavily weighted towards growth and megacap tech stocks, which are more sensitive to rate expectations and earnings visibility [3][2] Commodity Insights - Crude oil prices remained stable, with WTI crude at $64.31 and Brent crude at $67.98, as traders balanced weak demand signals against supply risks [4][24] - Gold prices hovered near historic levels at $5,078, supported by strong central bank buying and risk hedging, while silver prices fell to $81.94 due to profit booking [6][24] Cryptocurrency Market - The cryptocurrency market faced renewed selling pressure, with Bitcoin dropping 2.66% to $68,301 and the Nasdaq Crypto Index declining 3.27%, reflecting broad weakness across major tokens [10][11] - Analysts view the recent pullback in crypto as confidence-driven rather than a structural breakdown [11] Company-Specific Developments - Nvidia's stock remained steady at $190.35, supported by sustained AI demand and strong data-center spending, despite broader tech sentiment cooling [12][24] - Oscar Health's stock surged 12.40% to $14.23 following positive forward guidance and a path toward profitability [13][24] - Snap Inc. rose 2.60% to $5.33 as digital advertising demand showed early signs of stabilization [14][24] - Intel's stock fell 1.31% to $49.58, underperforming peers amid selective investor sentiment in the semiconductor sector [15][24] - Amazon.com slipped 0.64% to $207.38, reflecting a market rotation away from megacap growth stocks [16][24] Earnings Impact - Earnings reports contributed to the Dow's advance, with Coca-Cola reinforcing the appeal of predictable cash flows and CVS Health beating profit expectations while maintaining its full-year outlook [20][24] - Spotify's stock surged after upbeat forecasts, highlighting the importance of company-specific execution even in a softening broader market [21][24]

Group 1 - NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA) is expected to benefit significantly from increased capital expenditures by mega-cap tech companies, which are allocating substantial budgets for AI and computing technologies [1][3] - The stock has seen a notable increase of nearly 8%, marking its best performance since April of the previous year, indicating renewed investor interest [1] - Currently, NVIDIA's stock trades at 24 times earnings, reflecting a strong position with a year-over-year increase of over 55%, outperforming the S&P 500 [3] Group 2 - Jim Cramer describes NVIDIA as a "coiled spring," suggesting that the stock is poised for a significant upward movement despite recent performance challenges [3] - The company develops a range of technologies including GPUs for gaming, AI platforms, cloud services, and automotive technologies, positioning it well within the tech industry [3]

2026.02. 10 本文字数：2009，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 | 第一财经 冯迪凡 有报道称，美国计划在下一轮芯片关税中豁免亚马逊、谷歌和微软等美国科技巨头，原因是这些企业 正竞相建设推动人工智能（AI）热潮的数据中心。知情人士透露，美国商务部计划为美国本土超大规 模企业提供的关税豁免将与台积电（TSMC）的投资承诺挂钩。 哈佛大学肯尼迪政府学院教授福尔曼（Jason Furman）在近期的一场研讨会上对第一财经记者表 示，一方面，特朗普政府以关税威胁为手段，推动更多美国制造业的发展，另一方面，从截至目前的 发展看，特朗普政府取消威胁、增加关税豁免的案例比收紧关税的案例要多。 牛津经济研究院也在近期针对全球商业人士的风险调查报告中发现，尽管存在地缘政治风险的担忧， 但全球商业界对美国贸易政策全球影响的忧虑已有所缓解，总体而言，企业并未察觉全球增长前景出 现明显变化。 分配豁免额度？ 据新华社报道，美国白宫1月14日发布声明说，美国将从15日起对部分进口半导体、半导体制造设 备和衍生品加征25%进口从价关税。根据白宫公布的事实清单，英伟达公司H200芯片和超威半导体 声明称，此次加征关税依据的是《196 ...

摩根大通指出，春节AI推广战背后，是用户习惯向聊天机器人迁移，推动Token消耗进入长期高增长。 预测中国Token消耗量年复合增速将达330%。投资焦点应放在 "二阶赢家"：直接受益的AI基础设施商 及广告业务相关公司。 摩根大通指出，虽然春节期间各大科技巨头掀起了激烈的AI应用推广战，但这只是表面现象。透 过"谁将赢得AI应用大战"的短期博弈，市场应关注更深层的趋势：消费者获取信息和消费内容的方式 正在发生结构性改变，这将推动Token（令牌）消耗量开启一个长达多年的高速增长期。 在2026年春节，腾讯、阿里巴巴和百度将通过数十亿元人民币的补贴争夺用户心智。据追风交易台， 2月6日，摩根大通在最新发布的中国互联网与人工智能行业研报中分析认为，这些大型互联网平台投 入真金白银进行推广，是为加速用户从传统搜索转向聊天机器人，并培养智能体商业习惯。这一进程 实际上推升了推理量，从而加快了Token的消耗速度。目前的GPU算力需求过剩或供不应求的状况将 在未来几年持续。 该行预测，2025年至2030年，中国Token消耗量的年复合增长率将高达330%左右。基于此，摩根大通 认为目前判断AI应用端的胜负为时尚早， ...

Core Argument - The ongoing debate between investing in Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) versus Nvidia (NVDA) highlights Nvidia's significant growth advantage since 2023, with a rise of nearly 1,110% compared to AMD's 209% gain [1] Group 1: Performance Comparison - Since 2025, AMD has outperformed Nvidia with a 65% increase in stock price versus Nvidia's 30% [2] - Nvidia has a strong position in the AI market, primarily through its superior graphics processing units (GPUs), which are essential for processing complex AI workloads [2][3] - AMD has recently improved its product offerings, making it a more competitive option, especially as its products are more affordable than Nvidia's [3] Group 2: Revenue Growth - AMD's data center revenue grew by 39% year over year in Q4, while Nvidia's Q3 data center growth was significantly higher at 66%, with expectations for Q4 growth around 67% [4][5] - Nvidia's overall company growth rate in Q3 was 62%, indicating a robust performance compared to AMD's smaller growth [5] Group 3: Valuation Analysis - Despite AMD's slower growth, it trades at a higher valuation of 30 times forward earnings, while Nvidia trades at 23 times forward earnings, suggesting a price discrepancy [5] - The higher valuation of AMD raises questions about its attractiveness as an investment compared to Nvidia, which is seen as the more favorable option for future performance [7]

Core Viewpoint - Software stocks are expected to rebound from historic lows as the market has overly pessimistic expectations regarding AI's short-term disruption of the software industry, according to JPMorgan strategists [1][5]. Group 1: Market Sentiment and Stock Performance - The software sector has fallen to its lowest level since the market turmoil in April last year [4]. - Concerns over new AI tools potentially disrupting traditional Software as a Service (SaaS) business models have led to sustained pressure on U.S. software stocks [1][5]. - The recent sell-off did not differentiate between companies with AI partnerships or proprietary data assets, affecting nearly all related software companies equally [1]. Group 2: Company Resilience and Long-term Outlook - Companies like Microsoft and CrowdStrike are highlighted as resilient players in the AI space, likely to benefit from AI-enhanced workflow efficiencies [5]. - The high switching costs and long-term contracts in enterprise software provide a buffer against short-term disruptions [5]. - The long-term fate of traditional software companies in the face of AI remains uncertain, but current market pessimism appears to be an overreaction [5]. Group 3: Analyst Perspectives - Analysts from Morgan Stanley believe that U.S. tech stocks still have room for further gains, and the decline in software stocks has created an attractive entry point [5]. - Wedbush analysts argue that the market's reaction to AI risks is excessive, suggesting that the current sell-off implies an extreme assumption of widespread AI disruption, which is not feasible [6]. - The caution of enterprise clients regarding AI migration is emphasized, as many are reluctant to expose core data to immature new platforms [6]. Group 4: AI Integration and Market Dynamics - The narrative that AI will replace entire enterprise software stacks is overly simplistic; the value density of enterprise software lies in proprietary data and compliance structures [8][9]. - AI is more likely to integrate as embedded tools within existing software platforms rather than completely replacing them [6][9]. - The current sell-off reflects a market response to the question of how much profit pools in SaaS will be redistributed due to AI [10]. Group 5: Future Indicators and Investment Strategy - The rebound in software stocks may depend on two hard indicators: the speed of real deployment and payment expansion by enterprises, and the elasticity of SaaS companies' AI-related product revenues [10]. - Companies with strong data assets and solid fundamentals, such as Microsoft, MongoDB, Snowflake, Palantir, and SAP, are likely to experience a robust rebound post-panic [10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the domestic computing power industry chain, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in this sector [2]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes that AI inference is leading innovation, with a focus on demand-driven Opex-related areas, specifically storage, power, ASIC, and supernodes [2][28]. - It highlights the expected growth in the domestic storage industry, driven by new products from Yangtze Memory Technologies and Changxin Memory Technologies, alongside a rapid increase in demand for SSDs and HBM [2][29]. - The report anticipates a significant expansion year for storage production, suggesting investors pay close attention to the overall opportunities within the domestic storage industry chain [29]. - The power industry is also highlighted, with a focus on new technologies on both the supply and demand sides, including companies like Sanhua Group and Zhongfu Circuit [30]. - The ASIC segment is expected to see an increase in market share, with a focus on major CSP manufacturers [30]. - The report predicts an evolution in cabinet models, with growth in demand for high-speed interconnects, cabinet OEM, liquid cooling, and PCB [30]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.27%, while the Shenzhen Component Index dropped by 2.11%, and the overall Shenwan Electronics Index decreased by 5.23% [1][13]. - Year-to-date, the Shenwan Electronics Index has declined by 4.73%, ranking 14th out of 31 sectors [1][13]. Weekly Focus - Nvidia's upcoming Arm architecture-based N1X + N1 processor is discussed, indicating a strategic move into the AI PC and laptop market, competing directly with AMD and Intel [26][27]. - The report notes that Nvidia's new processors will utilize TSMC's 3nm process technology, enhancing performance while maintaining low power consumption [26][27]. Related Research - Previous reports have consistently highlighted the positive outlook for the domestic computing power industry chain, including price increases in semiconductor packaging and storage chips [4][6][5].