上周五，一则关于数据中心建设可能延迟的消息，让数据库巨头甲骨文的股价在持续下跌中再次受挫， 也进一步加深了投资者对AI泡沫的担忧。 比股价波动更值得玩味的，是公司声明的文字游戏：它只否认了"合同规定必须完成的时间节点"有延 迟，却对公众更关心的"整体项目时间表"是否推迟避而不谈。 在资本一头热地追捧未来故事，而技术落地艰难、商业回报存疑之间，一道天堑正在显现。 01 不寻常的信号 过去两年，任何与"AI算力"沾边的公司，都能轻松从资本市场获得惊人的高估值。 甲骨文就是其中的"代表"：它与OpenAI达成的价值千亿美元级别的基础设施合作协议，曾一度将其市 值推高数千亿美元，并使创始人拉里·埃里森短暂成为世界首富。 股票投资者似乎买下了一个确定的未来：AI需求无限，算力就是力量，投资核心基础设施就等于投资 新时代的"卖水人"。 然而，就在股票市场沉醉于转型故事的同时，离风险更近的信用市场，却发出了截然不同的警告。 在甲骨文延迟传闻发酵的一周内，为其债务违约提供保险的信用违约互换价格飙升至五年新高。CDS市 场的交易员，素有"金融世界金丝雀"之称，他们凭借对结构性风险的敏锐嗅觉，曾在2008年金融危机前 率先行动。 ...

Market Overview - Concerns over AI have led to a significant decline in U.S. stock markets, with the Nasdaq dropping nearly 2% and the S&P 500 falling over 1%, although the Dow Jones still managed to gain over 1% for the week [1] - Semiconductor and AI stocks faced heavy losses, with Nvidia down over 3% and Broadcom dropping 11% after its earnings call, while Oracle's stock fell nearly 15% over two days following reports of data center delays [1][2] - Tesla saw a counter-trend rebound of nearly 3%, while cannabis stocks surged, with Canopy Growth rising 54% [1] Economic Indicators - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index fell by 0.30%, with notable declines in Chinese companies such as JinkoSolar down over 52% and Canadian Solar down 10% [2] - Long-term U.S. Treasury bonds declined, with the 10-year yield approaching a three-month high, while the U.S. dollar index ended a three-week losing streak [2] - Offshore RMB fell below 7.05, moving away from a 14-month high, but still gained over 100 points for the week [2] AI and Energy Sector - Oracle's CDS rose to its highest level since 2009 due to concerns over data center delays, although Oracle denied any delays in its contracts [2] - Nvidia is set to hold a closed-door summit focused on power issues related to data centers in the AI era, highlighting the energy crisis as a critical bottleneck for AI business expansion in the U.S. [10] Domestic Policy and Economic Measures - Multiple Chinese ministries responded to the Central Economic Work Conference, with the central bank emphasizing flexible monetary policy tools to stimulate consumption and investment [3][4] - In November, China saw new social financing of 2.49 trillion yuan and new RMB loans of 390 billion yuan, with the central bank continuing to implement a moderately loose monetary policy [5] Industry Developments - The China Photovoltaic Industry Association announced the establishment of a "polysilicon production capacity integration acquisition platform" to address excessive competition in the photovoltaic industry [12] - The platform aims to resolve debt crises and stabilize polysilicon prices through a dual-track model of "debt acquisition + flexible capacity reduction" [12][13] Consumer Sector Initiatives - The Ministry of Commerce and the People's Bank of China issued a notice to enhance business and financial collaboration to boost consumption, particularly in rural areas [14] - The notice includes measures to support durable consumer goods and digital product financing, indicating a focus on rural consumption growth [14]

Group 1: Company Performance - Huayi Brothers has reported a cumulative loss of 8.2 billion yuan over the past seven years, with its current market value being less than one-tenth of its peak [3] - In Q3, Huayi Brothers achieved a revenue of 62.6 million yuan, a year-on-year decline of 31.61%, and a net loss attributable to shareholders of 39.5 million yuan [3] - Lululemon's stock price has dropped by 46.40% this year, resulting in a market value loss of approximately 25 billion USD, leading to the resignation of CEO Calvin McDonald [8] Group 2: Industry Developments - The average age of the labor force in China has reached 39.66 years, indicating a gradual maturity in the aging process of the population [2] - The global largest automotive safety testing center has been put into operation in Ningbo, Zhejiang, featuring multiple Guinness World Records [6] - The National Market Supervision Administration has issued guidelines prohibiting car manufacturers from selling vehicles at a loss, aiming to enhance price compliance in the automotive industry [4] Group 3: Strategic Moves - Kweichow Moutai has introduced a volume control policy to alleviate financial pressure on distributors, halting product distribution until January 1, 2026 [4] - SpaceX is reportedly seeking to go public with a target valuation of approximately 1.5 trillion USD, which could make Elon Musk the world's first trillionaire [2] - OpenAI has adjusted its compensation policy to prevent talent outflow by removing the "vesting cliff" for stock options [11]

查看最新行情 甲骨文在上周末提交的证券文件中披露，截至11月的三个月内，公司签订了价值约1500亿美元的数据中 心租赁承诺。这一举措表明，甲骨文正为承接OpenAI等客户与其达成的云业务合作做准备。 责任编辑：刘明亮 甲骨文在上周末提交的证券文件中披露，截至11月的三个月内，公司签订了价值约1500亿美元的数据中 心租赁承诺。这一举措表明，甲骨文正为承接OpenAI等客户与其达成的云业务合作做准备。 文件显示，截至11月30日，甲骨文拥有2480亿美元的租赁承诺，"基本全部与数据中心及云算力相关安 排有关"。这些租赁承诺将在即日起至2028财年期间生效，且尚未计入资产负债表。根据甲骨文今年夏 季提交的文件，截至8月31日，该公司新增租赁承诺为998亿美元；而截至5月，这一数字仅为434亿美 元。 同样截至11月30日，甲骨文的客户承诺总额达5230亿美元，期限跨度超过五年。甲骨文在证券文件中表 示，其中10%的承诺预计将在未来12个月内确认，另有65%将在未来五年内确认。 责任编辑：刘明亮 文件显示，截至11月30日，甲骨文拥有2480亿美元的租赁承诺，"基本全部与数据中心及云算力相关安 排有关"。这些租赁承 ...

华见早安之声 请各位听众升级为见闻最新版APP，以便成功收听以下音频。 市场概述 上周五，AI担忧加剧压垮美股，纳指收跌近2%、标普跌超1%，全周均转跌，道指跌落纪录高位，全周仍涨超1%、连涨三周；芯片和AI股重挫，英伟达跌 超3%、领跌科技巨头，芯片指数跌超5%，博通业绩电话会后跌11%，传出数据中心延期的甲骨文跌4.5%、财报后两日跌近15%；特斯拉逆市反弹近3%； 大麻股高涨，Canopy Growth涨54%。 长期美债跌，十年期美债收益率逼近三个月高位。美元指数暂别近八周低位，连跌三周；离岸人民币失守7.05、跌离14个月高位、但全周涨超百点；加密货 币齐跌，比特币盘中跌近4%，以太坊一度跌超6%。 黄金连创逾七周新高，盘中涨近2%后曾转跌；银铜创新高后跳水，期银一度跌超5%，伦铜跌3%、全周转跌；原油两连跌、全周回落超4%，美油收创七个 月新低。 亚洲时段，A股探底回升，创业板涨0.97%，可控核聚变、商业航天领涨，电网设备走强，港股高开高走，恒指、恒科指涨超1%，科技股普涨，有色强势。 要闻 中国11月新增社融2.49万亿元，新增人民币贷款3900亿元，M2-M1剪刀差扩大。 何立峰：2026年 ...

Core Viewpoint - Oracle Corporation is highlighted as a significant AI stock for investors, with a recent price target adjustment by UBS analyst Karl Keirstead from $380.00 to $325.00 while maintaining a "Buy" rating, reflecting confidence in the company's substantial $523 billion backlog conversion despite mixed earnings results [1][2]. Financial Performance - Oracle's earnings report on December 11 showed a 13% year-over-year revenue growth and a 66% growth in cloud infrastructure, although these results fell slightly short of investor expectations [3][4]. - The company experienced a $68 billion increase in remaining performance obligations during the quarter, attributed to deals with Meta and Nvidia, indicating strong demand [3]. Investor Sentiment - Investors are currently focused on the conversion of backlog and capital expenditures into revenue, with the total revenue growth of 13% aligning with previous year figures but cloud infrastructure growth of 66% being slightly below expectations [4]. - The guidance for 3Q/Feb cloud revenue growth of 37-41% was also below the analyst's estimate of 42%, contributing to cautious investor sentiment [4].

Core Insights - The article discusses the potential pitfalls of impulsive spending and investment strategies in light of anticipated $2,000 stimulus checks from the Trump administration, emphasizing the importance of strategic financial planning rather than hasty decisions driven by FOMO [5][4]. Investment Strategies - Investors are cautioned against chasing quick gains in AI stocks like Nvidia and Oracle, as the market may be experiencing an overinflated bubble [1][6]. - A balanced investment approach is recommended, including strengthening emergency funds and paying off high-interest debt, rather than concentrating all funds into volatile stocks [6][7]. Financial Planning - The article advises treating the potential stimulus as a budgetary windfall rather than discretionary spending until the details are finalized [2][4]. - It highlights the importance of not mentally spending the anticipated funds before they are received, as this can lead to financial strain if plans change [3][4]. Debt Management - High-interest debt should be prioritized, as credit card interest rates are nearing 24%, and using part of the stimulus to reduce this burden can provide long-term financial benefits [8][10]. - The article emphasizes the necessity of establishing or replenishing an emergency fund, as 24% of Americans lack any emergency savings, which can lead to reliance on high-interest credit cards during unexpected expenses [10][9]. Tax Considerations - While federal stimulus payments are not taxable, individuals should remain aware of other upcoming financial obligations such as property taxes and insurance renewals, which can create financial pressure if not planned for [11][12].

Core Insights - Oracle's stock is currently trading 43% below its recent highs, despite accelerating demand for AI cloud services [1][2] - The company's remaining performance obligations increased by 15% over the previous quarter and grew 438% year-over-year, indicating strong future revenue growth [4] Financial Performance - Oracle's contracted revenue expected to be realized in the next 12 months increased by 40% year-over-year, suggesting accelerating revenue growth in upcoming quarters [4] - The current market capitalization of Oracle is $542 billion, with shares trading at 28 times forward earnings estimates, which is considered reasonable given the expected high-double-digit growth rates [6] Market Position - Oracle is well-positioned in the cloud services market due to its leadership in database management and enterprise applications, attracting businesses to its offerings [6] - Analysts project Oracle's revenue to grow at an annualized rate of 31% through fiscal 2030, which is expected to lead to significant earnings per share growth and returns for investors [7]

Market Overview - Major stock indexes are higher, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average and Russell 2000 Index reaching all-time highs, driven by the Federal Reserve's interest-rate cut and expectations for further cuts, lower tax rates, and decreasing oil prices [1][3] - The Standard & Poor's 500 Index is down 0.6% for the week but up 16.1% year-to-date, while the Nasdaq Composite Index is down 1.62% for the week and up 20% for the year [7] Economic Factors - Interest rates have slightly decreased following the Federal Reserve's recent rate-cut decision [1] - The economy has faced challenges, particularly from tariffs, but remains resilient [1] AI Industry Concerns - There are significant concerns regarding the sustainability of the artificial intelligence boom and its impact on tech company valuations [4] - Oracle's stock fell 12.7% for the week due to worries about its revenue dependency on OpenAI, which has a $300 billion data center deal with Oracle [5] - Broadcom's stock dropped 11.4% on Friday and 7.8% for the week, amid concerns over lower gross margins in its AI business compared to other segments [6] Company Performance - Despite recent declines, Oracle is still up 14% year-to-date, although it has fallen 45% since hitting a 52-week high of $345.72 on September 10 [6] - Broadcom remains up 55% for the year despite recent losses [6]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing fluctuations influenced by significant macroeconomic events, including inflation and foreign trade data releases, as well as the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance on interest rates. The Shanghai Composite Index has fallen below 3900 points this week [1]. Semiconductor Industry - Intel is testing chip manufacturing tools from a well-connected equipment manufacturer, which may be used for its advanced chip manufacturing process expected to begin production in 2027 [1]. - The semiconductor sector saw a sudden rise on Friday, although the reasons for this increase remain unclear [1]. Financial Data - In November, China's social financing increased by 24,885 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1,597 billion yuan, marking a return to positive growth after three months of decline [6]. - New RMB loans amounted to 3,900 billion yuan in November, a year-on-year decrease of 1,900 billion yuan, with a notable drop in household loans [7]. Market Trends - The technology sector is expected to see a rebound as geopolitical risks ease and policy expectations improve, with a focus on AI and semiconductor industries [6]. - The stock market is currently in a cautious phase, with significant net selling observed in sectors such as computing, pharmaceuticals, and basic chemicals [32]. Investment Opportunities - The upcoming economic policies and data releases are anticipated to create investment opportunities, particularly in technology and cyclical sectors [6]. - The semiconductor and AI sectors are highlighted as areas of potential growth, with specific attention to the TPU industry chain and related technologies [6]. Industry Insights - The photovoltaic equipment sector is expected to see advancements with the emergence of new technologies, such as silicon-based and perovskite solar cells [11]. - The commercial aerospace sector is preparing for significant IPOs, with SpaceX planning to raise over $30 billion [12]. Consumer Sector - The Chinese government is implementing measures to boost consumer spending, including adjustments to personal consumption loan policies [16]. - Guizhou Moutai is expected to introduce a volume control policy, impacting the production and pricing of its products [16].