Core Viewpoint - Renowned investor Duan Yongping expressed skepticism about Pop Mart's business model, questioning the long-term demand for its products and suggesting that if investors believe in sustained demand, it could be a good investment opportunity [1][3][9] Company Performance - As of January 12, 2026, Pop Mart's stock price was HKD 197.00 per share, with a total market capitalization of HKD 264.56 billion, down from a peak of HKD 335.40 per share and a market cap exceeding HKD 450 billion in August 2025 [3][11] - The stock has declined over 41% in less than five months, resulting in a market value loss of approximately HKD 185.8 billion [6][14] Financial Results - For Q3 2025, Pop Mart reported a revenue increase of 245% to 250% year-on-year, with Chinese market revenue growing by 185% to 190% and overseas market revenue increasing by 365% to 370% [8][16] - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved revenue of CNY 13.88 billion, a year-on-year growth of 204.4%, and an adjusted net profit of CNY 4.71 billion, up 362.8% [8][16] - The founder, Wang Ning, projected full-year revenue for 2025 to be no less than CNY 30 billion, emphasizing the importance of sustainable growth and data management [8][16] Market Sentiment - The market sentiment has been shaken by the declining market premium of core IPs like Labubu and short-selling pressures, despite ongoing overseas expansion and expected strong net profits for 2025 [6][14] - Morgan Stanley reported that Pop Mart is transitioning from explosive growth to sustainable growth, predicting a significant slowdown in revenue growth for Labubu in 2026 [8][16]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that Pop Mart is collaborating with a well-known smartphone brand, Honor, to launch a co-branded "trendy toy phone" featuring its IP "Molly," rather than developing its own smartphone [2][3] - The collaboration will involve deep co-creation in product definition, with the phone based on Honor's mid-range 500 series, which has a starting price of 2,699 yuan [2] - The co-branded phone will include full-chain customization from ID design to packaging, and will come with a gift box featuring a Molly figurine and a custom phone case [2] Group 2 - Pop Mart's latest financial data shows a revenue growth of 245%-250% year-on-year for Q3 2025, with overseas market growth reaching 365%-370% [3] - Despite strong financial performance, Pop Mart faces challenges in the secondary market, where some new blind boxes have seen price drops, indicating a compression of premium space [3] - The collaboration with Honor is seen as a potential strategy for Pop Mart to find a second growth curve beyond blind boxes, with the success of this partnership to be evaluated after the product launch on January 19 [3]

Group 1 - The core message is that Pop Mart is not developing a mobile phone but will collaborate with a well-known mobile brand for an IP co-branding project [1] - Morgan Stanley reports that Pop Mart is transitioning from a phase of explosive growth to sustainable growth, predicting a significant slowdown in revenue growth for Labubu by 2026, with diversification beyond a single hit product [3] - The latest financial report indicates that in Q3 2025, Pop Mart's overall revenue increased by 245% to 250%, with a 185% to 190% increase in the Chinese market and a 365% to 370% increase in overseas markets [3] Group 2 - For the first half of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 13.88 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 204.4%, with adjusted net profit reaching 4.71 billion yuan, up 362.8%, and profit attributable to shareholders at 4.574 billion yuan, a 396.5% increase [3] - The founder of Pop Mart, Wang Ning, stated that the company expects full-year revenue for 2025 to be no less than 30 billion yuan, emphasizing the importance of growth health and the details behind big data growth [3]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the China IP retail and toy industry, specifically highlighting companies such as Pop Mart, Miniso, and Bloks [7][8][9]. Pop Mart - **Sales Performance**: Pop Mart's online sales growth in China decelerated in December due to disciplined supply release, but an acceleration in supply was noted in January, which is expected to support growth [11][12]. - **New Product Launches**: The "Have a Good Run" plush toy series launched in January sold out quickly with a disciplined volume release of approximately 30,000 units on Tmall and Douyin [10][11]. - **Secondary Market Performance**: The secondary market price performance for non-secret SKUs showed mixed results, with premiums ranging from -30% to +50% [10][11]. - **US Market Trends**: In the US, credit card sales growth decelerated to approximately 300% in December from 500% in November, indicating a slowdown in growth [21][30]. Miniso - **Sales Growth**: Miniso's sales growth in Q4 is on track with management's expectations, showing solid performance in both China and the US. The company anticipates a positive outlook for the Chinese New Year (CNY) and Q1 2026 due to enhanced holiday operations and a relatively low base [8][27]. - **Product Launches**: New products under the Want Want IP were launched in late December, targeting the New Year season [10][11]. - **US Credit Card Sales**: Miniso's US credit card sales growth was approximately 75% in December, up from 60% in November, indicating strong holiday performance [27][29]. Bloks - **Product Launches**: Bloks accelerated new product launches in December, introducing over 30 product series, including new series for existing large IPs like Transformers and Kamen Rider [15][19]. - **Sales Performance**: Initial performance of new products, such as Kamen Rider's Legend version, has been positive, achieving over 10,000 sales volume on Tmall [15][19]. Market Trends and Outlook - **US Retail Sales**: The US holiday retail sales growth was reported at 3.9% from November 1 to December 21, showing slight improvement compared to the previous year [20]. - **Consumer Sentiment**: Easing comparisons and tax refund tailwinds are expected to support discretionary demand in the upcoming months [20]. - **Secondary Market Trends**: The secondary market prices for various IPs have shown stabilization, although some products continue to experience price declines due to increased supply [10][26]. Additional Insights - **Management's Outlook**: Both Pop Mart and Miniso management expressed a positive outlook for the upcoming CNY and Q1 2026, citing solid performance and operational preparations [10][27]. - **Risks**: There are concerns regarding the potential underestimation of revenue estimates for Pop Mart in North America due to changes in presale dynamics [47]. This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call, providing insights into the performance and outlook of the companies within the China IP retail and toy industry.

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that while the investment value of Pop Mart is recognized, there are concerns regarding the long-term sustainability of its core demand [2][3] - Investor Duan Yongping acknowledges Pop Mart's impressive business performance and its successful creation of popular IPs like Labubu and Starry People, targeting young female consumers [3] - The blind box model employed by Pop Mart is attractive due to its gambling-like nature, encouraging repeat purchases as consumers seek desired items from a selection of 12 blind boxes [3] Group 2 - Duan Yongping expresses skepticism about the long-term necessity of Pop Mart's products, questioning the potential decline in demand over time [3] - He compares Pop Mart's products to luxury and art items, suggesting that their demand is based on emotional consumption, which is difficult to quantify and subject to trend changes [3] - Concerns are raised about the limitations of the blind box model, indicating that not all products can successfully adopt this approach, hinting at the dependency of Pop Mart's success on its IP and blind box strategy [3] Group 3 - Regulatory scrutiny has increased around the blind box model due to concerns over inducing excessive consumption, leading to tighter industry regulations [3] - The lifecycle of IPs is unpredictable, and while Pop Mart has developed a multi-IP strategy, its ability to continuously create new hits remains uncertain [3] - Duan Yongping emphasizes the need for Pop Mart to demonstrate its capability to navigate through "trend cycles" to become a long-term quality investment [3]

Core Viewpoint - Pop Mart has denied rumors of developing a mobile phone, stating that it will collaborate with a well-known mobile brand for an IP co-branded product targeting young consumers [1]. Group 1: Product Development and Collaborations - Pop Mart has no plans to develop a mobile phone but will launch an IP co-branded product with a popular mobile brand [1]. - The upcoming product is expected to combine elements of trendy toys with smart device functionalities, aimed at young consumers [1]. - Pop Mart's jewelry brand, POPOP, is set to officially open in September 2025, featuring products themed around its popular IP BabyMolly [1]. Group 2: Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, Pop Mart reported a 245% to 250% year-on-year increase in overall revenue, with China revenue growing by 185% to 190% and overseas revenue increasing by 365% to 370% [1]. - Revenue from offline channels in China grew by 130% to 135%, while online channels saw a growth of 300% to 305% [1]. - In the first half of 2025, the IP THE MONSTERS, including Labubu, generated revenue of 4.81 billion yuan, marking a 668% year-on-year increase and accounting for 34.7% of total revenue [2]. Group 3: Market Performance - As of January 12, Pop Mart's stock price decreased by 0.2%, trading at 196.6 HKD per share [3].

Core Viewpoint - The discussion around Pop Mart highlights a mix of admiration for its business model and skepticism about its long-term sustainability, emphasizing the importance of understanding consumer demand for its products [2][5]. Group 1: Company Insights - The company Pop Mart is recognized for its ability to create products with emotional value, which is seen as a significant achievement rather than mere luck [2][5]. - There is uncertainty regarding the future demand for Pop Mart's products, with concerns that consumer interest may wane in the coming years [2][5]. Group 2: Investment Perspective - The investment potential in Pop Mart is contingent on the belief that consumer demand will remain strong over time, which could lead to continued business growth [2][5]. - An investment decision should consider whether one would be willing to buy the company at its market value, which encourages a long-term perspective on the investment [2][5].

Core Viewpoint - Pop Mart is launching a collaboration with Honor, a leading smartphone brand, to create a trendy toy-themed smartphone, which has generated significant interest in both the toy and tech communities [2][4]. Group 1: Collaboration Details - The collaboration is not a self-developed phone by Pop Mart but an IP co-branding partnership with Honor [2]. - The specific collaboration model between Honor and Pop Mart has not been disclosed yet, but it could range from lightweight branding to deep customization across the product lifecycle [4]. - Pop Mart is known for its "IP + blind box" model, successfully creating and operating several popular IPs, including MOLLY and SKULLPANDA, and has established three core business segments: consumer products, service experiences, and entertainment [4]. Group 2: Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, Pop Mart reported revenue of 13.88 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 204.4%, and an adjusted net profit of 4.71 billion yuan, up 362.8% [5]. - The THE MONSTERS series, which includes the LABUBU IP, generated revenue of 4.81 billion yuan, marking a 668% increase and accounting for 34.7% of total revenue [5]. - Other IPs like MOLLY, SKULLPANDA, CRYBABY, and DIMOO also surpassed 1 billion yuan in revenue [5][6]. Group 3: Market Context - Honor, originally a sub-brand of Huawei, has become a leading smartphone brand in China, holding a market share of 19.5% in Q2 2022, 19.4% in Q3 2023, and 17.1% in Q1 2024 [6]. - The Chinese smartphone market is experiencing intense competition, with Honor facing challenges from brands like vivo, Apple, and Huawei, which have recently outperformed it in terms of shipment volumes [7][8]. - The overall smartphone market in China saw a slight decline in shipments, with a total of approximately 68.5 million units shipped in Q3 2025, down 0.5% year-on-year [8][9].

Group 1 - The core point of the article is the collaboration between HONOR and POP MART for an IP co-branding initiative, targeting the young and trendy market with the HONOR 500 series [1] Group 2 - The collaboration aims to leverage both brands' appeal to young consumers, enhancing product visibility and market reach [1] - The HONOR 500 series is positioned to attract a youthful demographic, aligning with current market trends in consumer electronics [1] - This partnership reflects a growing trend in the industry where tech companies collaborate with lifestyle brands to create unique product offerings [1]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that Honor is collaborating with Pop Mart to launch the Honor 500 series as the first trendy toy phone, set to be unveiled on January 19 [1] - The collaboration involves comprehensive co-creation, including ID design, packaging, system themes, and exclusive accessories, rather than just simple graphics [1] - The special edition phone will feature a Molly theme, including dedicated icons, boot animations, and ringtones, along with a gift box containing the phone, a limited Molly figurine, a custom phone case, and stickers [1] Group 2 - In a highly competitive mid-range market, simply focusing on hardware specifications is no longer sufficient to attract consumers, making this collaboration a strategy to emphasize "emotional value" [2] - Previous successful collaborations in the industry, such as OnePlus's partnership with the game "Genshin Impact," have shown that limited edition phones can command high prices in the second-hand market, sometimes being referred to as "investment products" [2] - Other brands like Redmi and Realme have also engaged in successful IP collaborations, indicating a trend where such partnerships can lead to significant consumer demand and sales [2][3] Group 3 - Analysts note that IP collaborations have become a key strategy for mobile manufacturers seeking differentiation in the market [3] - However, there is a risk that if the collaboration lacks depth, such as simple logo overlays or color changes without meaningful customization, it may face criticism and potentially impact sales negatively [3]