2024 年 02 月 26 日 公司研究 评级：买入 (维持 ) 研究所： [Table_Title] 利润超预期，关注出境游及全球 业务发展 证券分析师： 陈梦竹 S0350521090003 OTA chenmz@ghzq.com.cn 证券分析师： 张娟娟 S0350523110004 ——携程集团 （ ） 财报点评 -S 9961.HK 2023Q4 zhangjj02@ghzq.com.cn 联系人 ： 罗婉琦 S0350122040042 luowq@ghzq.com.cn 最近一年走势 事件 : 2024 年 2 月 22 日公司公告 2023Q4 财报，整体实现净收入 103 亿元 （YoY+105%），归母净利润13亿元（2022年同期21亿元），Non-GAAP 归母净利润27 亿元（YoY+437%）。其中交通票务实现净收入41 亿元 （YoY+86%），住宿预订实现净收入39亿元（YoY+131%），旅游度假 实现净收入 7.04 亿元（YoY+329%），商旅管理实现净收入 6.34 亿元 （YoY+129%）。2023.9截至2024.2.22公告日，公司已回购约680万股 美国 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - In Q4 2023, the company achieved a net operating income of 10.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 105%, and an adjusted net profit of 2.675 billion yuan, up 437.1% year-on-year. For the entire year of 2023, the company reported a net operating income of 44.5 billion yuan, a 122% increase year-on-year, and an adjusted net profit of 13.07 billion yuan, a 910% increase year-on-year [2][3] - Domestic and international travel demand continues to show strong growth, with outbound business expected to drive growth in 2024. In Q4 2023, domestic hotel bookings increased by over 130% year-on-year, and outbound hotel and flight bookings recovered to over 80% of pre-pandemic levels [3] - The company's international business is progressing, with the global OTA platform operating in 39 countries and regions as of Q4 2023, and total bookings on the international OTA platform increasing by over 70% year-on-year. It is expected that the international OTA platform will contribute 15% to 20% of total revenue in the next three to five years [3] - Profit margins are improving due to enhanced marketing efficiency, with a Non-GAAP net profit margin of 25.9% in Q4 2023, an increase of 16 percentage points year-on-year. The board has approved a capital return plan for 2024, increasing the total return amount to 580 million USD, which is expected to boost market confidence [3] - The company is a leader in the OTA sector, with strong domestic demand growth and recovery in outbound tourism and overseas market expansion expected to contribute to incremental growth. Adjusted net profit forecasts for 2024 and 2025 have been raised to 13.57 billion yuan and 16.21 billion yuan, respectively, with expected year-on-year growth of 4% and 19% [3]

携程集团-S（9961.HK）2023年第四季度及全年业绩点评 四季度业绩超预期，看好 2024 年业绩增长 2024年02月24日 事件：2024年2月22日，携程集团（9961.HK/TCOM）发布2023年第四季 推荐 维持评级 度及全年未经审计业绩，23Q4净收入103亿元，yoy+105%（超彭博一致预期 当前价格： 366.40港元 102亿元）；Q4归母净利润13亿元，上年同期21亿元；Q4 Non-Gaap净利 润27亿元，上年同期4.98亿元（超彭博一致预期16亿元）。2023年全年净收 入445亿元，yoy+122%；2023年归母净利润99亿元，上年为14亿元；Non- Gaap净利润131亿元，上年为13亿元。 [T able_Author] ➢ 四季度各业务强势增长，成本管控佳。1）Q4冰雪旅游热度高，携程在传统 旅游淡季下依旧保持良好的增长，分业务来看，Q4 住宿收入 39 亿元， yoy+131%；交通业务收入 41 亿元，yoy+86%；度假业务 7.04 亿元， yoy+329%；商旅收入6.34亿元，yoy+129%。2）成本端毛利率显著恢复，其 他成本管控佳，Q4毛利率8 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2][5][10] Core Views - The company demonstrated strong financial performance in 2023, with a significant increase in revenue and profits compared to 2019 levels. The total revenue reached 44.51 billion RMB, and the net profit was 9.918 billion RMB, marking increases of 25% and 41% respectively [6][9] - The company's Non-GAAP net profit doubled compared to 2019, achieving a record high net profit margin of 29%, which is an increase of 11 percentage points from 2019 [6][9] - The company is expected to benefit from the recovery of outbound tourism, with significant growth in domestic travel bookings during the upcoming Spring Festival [9][10] Financial Forecasts and Key Metrics - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2024E: 52.861 billion RMB (up 18.8% from 2023) - 2025E: 61.373 billion RMB (up 16.1% from 2024) - 2026E: 70.146 billion RMB (up 14.3% from 2025) [3][11] - Net profit forecasts are: - 2024E: 11.226 billion RMB (up 13.2% from 2023) - 2025E: 13.487 billion RMB (up 20.1% from 2024) - 2026E: 15.838 billion RMB (up 17.4% from 2025) [3][11] - Earnings per share (EPS) estimates are: - 2024E: 16.42 RMB - 2025E: 19.73 RMB - 2026E: 23.17 RMB [3][11] Market Trends and Business Performance - The company's core platform GMV surpassed 1.1 trillion RMB, reflecting a 30% increase compared to 2019, indicating improved operational efficiency [6][9] - In Q4 2023, the company reported a revenue of 10.3 billion RMB, with a Non-GAAP net profit of 2.7 billion RMB, showcasing strong performance despite challenges in the outbound travel sector [6][9] - The recovery in outbound tourism is expected to contribute significantly to revenue growth, with bookings for outbound flights and hotels during the Spring Festival surpassing 2019 levels [9][10]

Table_Title Table_BaseInfo 2024 年 02 月 23 日 公司动态分析 携程集团（9961.HK/TCOM.US） 证券研究报告 4 季度利润超预期，2024 年前景明朗 xxxx 在线旅行 携程4季度收入同比增105%，符合市场预期，经调整净利润超市场预期70%，利润 投资评级： xx 买入 率26%，收入延续强劲复苏的同时，运营效率优化亮眼。2023全年交易规模同比增 xx 130%，创新高至1.1万亿元，维持全球第一梯队。看好国内旅游大年及海外业务拓 展背景下业绩稳健增长前景，上调目标价至437港元（9961.HK），维持“买入”。 目标价格： 437 港元 报告摘要 现价 (2024-02-22)： 355.60港元 4 季度业绩延续强劲复苏，营销效率优化带动利润大幅超预期：总收入 103 亿元， 同比/较 19Q4 增 105%/24%，符合市场预期，其中住宿预订/交通票务收入占比 38%/43%，同比增131%/86%，较19Q4增32%/18%，延续前3季度强劲复苏态势。 总市值(百万港元) 226,521 经调整净利润27亿元，大幅超市场预期的16亿元（高70%） ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q4 2023, Trip.com Group reported a net revenue of RMB 10.3 billion, representing a 105% year-over-year increase and a 25% decrease quarter-over-quarter, but still 24% higher than the 2019 level [27] - For the full year of 2023, net revenue reached RMB 44.5 billion, marking a 122% increase year-over-year and a 25% increase from 2019 [27] - Adjusted EBITDA for Q4 was RMB 2.9 billion, reflecting a growth of 899% year-over-year and a 117% increase compared to 2019, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 28% [32] - For the full year of 2023, adjusted EBITDA was RMB 14 billion, representing a growth of 550% year-over-year and an increase of 78% compared to 2019, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 31% [32] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Accommodation reservation revenue for Q4 reached RMB 3.9 billion, a 131% increase year-over-year and a 32% growth compared to 2019 [27] - Transportation ticketing revenue for Q4 was RMB 4.1 billion, representing an 86% increase year-over-year and an 18% growth compared to 2019 [28] - Package tour revenue for Q4 was RMB 704 million, a 329% increase year-over-year, recovering to 88% of the 2019 level [29] - Corporate travel revenue for Q4 was RMB 634 million, a 129% increase year-over-year, which is 70% higher than the 2019 level [29] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q4, the China domestic market saw hotel bookings grow over 130% year-over-year and more than 60% compared to 2019 [9] - Outbound air ticket and hotel bookings recovered to more than 80% of pre-pandemic levels, surpassing the market overall recovery rate of 60% [12] - In the APAC region, total GMV of overseas OTA brands grew by more than 70% year-over-year and increased by over 100% compared to 2019 [12] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to become a leading player in the Asian market and globally within three to five years, focusing on globalization and enhancing product offerings [7][14] - The integration of AI technology, such as the TripGenie assistant, is a key part of the digital strategy to improve user experience and operational efficiency [18] - The company is committed to sustainability and corporate responsibility, focusing on community-friendly, environmental-friendly, and family-friendly initiatives [20][22] Management Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the recovery of the travel market, driven by strong consumer demand and the easing of travel restrictions [35] - The company anticipates stronger year-over-year growth in the first half of Q1 2024, followed by a softer second half due to seasonal factors [42] - The inbound travel market in China is seen as an untapped opportunity, with significant potential for growth as visa policies become more favorable [15][16] Other Important Information - The company has initiated a stock buyback program and approved a capital return program for 2024, reflecting confidence in long-term value [6][34] - The balance of cash and cash equivalents as of December 31, 2023, was RMB 77 billion, or USD 10.9 billion [33] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you elaborate on Trip.com's globalization strategy and achievements? - Management highlighted that the digital strategy focuses on building global products and services, leveraging strong supply chains and technology to enhance user experience [36][38] Question: How has the business performed during the Chinese New Year? - Management noted that domestic hotel and air reservations increased by more than 60% and 50% year-over-year, respectively, with outbound reservations surpassing 2019 levels [40][42] Question: What factors might contribute to the slow recovery of outbound travel? - Management expressed confidence in the recovery, citing strong demand and improving market supply conditions, with expectations for significant growth in outbound travel [44][46] Question: What are the key competitive advantages of Trip.com in international markets? - Management emphasized the user-friendly mobile app, AI-driven personalized recommendations, and strong customer service as key competitive advantages [56][58]

智通财经APP获悉，携程集团-S(09961)早盘涨超4%，截至发稿，涨4.04%，报344.8港元，成交额3.32亿港元。 消息面上，携程集团公布业绩。第四季度，公司净营业收入103亿元人民币，同比增长105%；净利润为13亿元，经调整EBITDA为29亿元，经调整EBITDA利润率为28%。2023年全年实现净营业收入445亿元，同比增长122%；净利润100.02亿元，同比大幅增加631.68%;归属于该集团的净利润99.18亿元，同比增加606.91%。 公告称，2023年第四季度国内外业务继续呈现强劲复苏态势：国内的酒店预订同比增长超过130%；出境酒店和机票预订恢复到2019年疫情前同期水平的80%以上，相比国际航空业客运量恢复至60%；公司国际OTA平台的总预订同比增长超70%。 ...

Revenue Growth - Domestic hotel bookings increased by over 130% year-over-year in Q4 2023[2] - Total bookings on the company's international OTA platform grew by over 70% year-over-year in Q4 2023[2] - Net revenue for Q4 2023 was RMB 10.3 billion (USD 1.5 billion), a 105% increase year-over-year[3] - Full-year net revenue for 2023 was RMB 44.5 billion (USD 6.3 billion), a 122% increase year-over-year[3] - Accommodation booking revenue for Q4 2023 was RMB 3.9 billion (USD 550 million), a 131% increase year-over-year[3] - Transportation ticketing revenue for Q4 2023 was RMB 4.1 billion (USD 578 million), an 86% increase year-over-year[3] - Package tour revenue for Q4 2023 was RMB 704 million (USD 99 million), a 329% increase year-over-year[3] - Total revenue for 2023 reached RMB 44,562 million (USD 6,276 million), a significant increase from RMB 20,055 million in 2022[15] - Accommodation booking revenue grew to RMB 17,257 million (USD 2,431 million) in 2023, up from RMB 7,400 million in 2022[15] - Transportation ticketing revenue increased to RMB 18,443 million (USD 2,598 million) in 2023, compared to RMB 8,253 million in 2022[15] Profitability - Net profit for Q4 2023 was RMB 1.3 billion (USD 189 million)[2] - Adjusted EBITDA for Q4 2023 was RMB 2.9 billion (USD 401 million), with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 28%, compared to 6% in the same period of 2022[2] - Net profit for Q4 2023 was RMB 1.3 billion (USD 189 million), compared to RMB 2.1 billion in the same period of 2022 and RMB 4.6 billion in the previous quarter[5] - Adjusted EBITDA for Q4 2023 was RMB 2.9 billion (USD 401 million), with a margin of 28%, compared to RMB 286 million and a 6% margin in the same period of 2022[5] - Net profit attributable to Trip.com Group shareholders for the full year 2023 was RMB 9.9 billion (USD 1.4 billion), compared to RMB 1.4 billion in 2022[5] - Operating profit for 2023 was RMB 11,324 million (USD 1,595 million), a substantial improvement from RMB 88 million in 2022[15] - Gross profit for 2023 reached RMB 36,389 million (USD 5,125 million), up from RMB 15,526 million in 2022[15] - Net profit for the year ended December 31, 2023, was RMB 10,002 million (USD 1,409 million), a significant increase from RMB 1,367 million in 2022[16] - Adjusted EBITDA for the year ended December 31, 2023, was RMB 13,975 million (USD 1,968 million), with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 31%[17] - Net profit attributable to Trip.com Group Limited for the year ended December 31, 2023, was RMB 9,918 million (USD 1,397 million), compared to RMB 1,403 million in 2022[16] Financial Position - Cash, cash equivalents, restricted cash, short-term investments, and held-to-maturity time deposits and financial products totaled RMB 77.3 billion (USD 10.9 billion) as of December 31, 2023[6] - Total assets increased to RMB 219,137 million (USD 30,865 million) in 2023 from RMB 191,691 million in 2022[13] - Cash, cash equivalents, and restricted cash surged to RMB 43,983 million (USD 6,195 million) in 2023, up from RMB 18,487 million in 2022[13] - Total liabilities rose to RMB 96,131 million (USD 13,540 million) in 2023 from RMB 78,672 million in 2022[14] - Shareholders' equity increased to RMB 123,006 million (USD 17,325 million) in 2023 from RMB 113,019 million in 2022[14] Expenses and Taxes - Corporate income tax expense for the full year 2023 was RMB 1.8 billion (USD 246 million), compared to RMB 682 million in 2022[5] - Total operating expenses for 2023 were RMB 25,065 million (USD 3,530 million), compared to RMB 15,438 million in 2022[15] - Product development expenses for the year ended December 31, 2023, were RMB 870 million (USD 123 million), up from RMB 567 million in 2022[16] - Sales and marketing expenses for the year ended December 31, 2023, were RMB 158 million (USD 22 million), compared to RMB 115 million in 2022[16] - General and administrative expenses for the year ended December 31, 2023, were RMB 806 million (USD 113 million), up from RMB 506 million in 2022[16] Shareholder Returns - The company repurchased approximately 6.8 million ADSs for a total consideration of approximately USD 224 million from September 2023 to the announcement date[7] - The board authorized a strategic capital return plan of up to USD 300 million, which may include annual share repurchases, annual cash dividends, or a combination of both[7] - Diluted earnings per ordinary share and per ADS for the full year 2023 were RMB 14.78 (USD 2.08), and RMB 19.48 (USD 2.74) on a non-GAAP basis[6] - Basic earnings per share for the year ended December 31, 2023, were RMB 15.19 (USD 2.14), up from RMB 2.17 in 2022[16] - Diluted earnings per share (non-GAAP) for the year ended December 31, 2023, were RMB 19.48 (USD 2.74), compared to RMB 1.97 in 2022[18] - The weighted average number of diluted shares outstanding (non-GAAP) for the year ended December 31, 2023, was 671,062,240[18] Exchange Rate - The exchange rate used for conversion was RMB 7.0999 per USD as of December 29, 2023[18] Recovery Metrics - Outbound hotel and air ticket bookings recovered to over 80% of pre-pandemic levels in Q4 2019, compared to 60% recovery in international airline passenger volume[2]

Financial Performance - In Q4 2023, the company's net revenue reached RMB 10.3 billion (USD 1.5 billion), representing a year-on-year increase of over 105%[3] - For the full year 2023, net revenue was RMB 44.5 billion (USD 6.3 billion), a year-on-year increase of 122%[3] - The company's accommodation booking revenue for Q4 2023 was RMB 3.9 billion (USD 550 million), up 131% year-on-year[3] - The travel vacation business revenue in Q4 2023 surged by 329% year-on-year, reaching RMB 707 million (USD 99 million)[3] - Total revenue for the year ending December 31, 2023, reached RMB 44,562 million, a significant increase from RMB 20,055 million in 2022, representing a growth of 122%[15] - The company reported a net income of RMB 10,680 million for the year ending December 31, 2023, compared to RMB 2,635 million in 2022, reflecting a substantial increase of 304%[15] Profitability Metrics - The adjusted EBITDA for Q4 2023 was RMB 2.9 billion (USD 410 million), with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 28%, compared to 6% in the same period of 2022[2] - In 2023, the total net profit was 10 billion RMB (1.4 billion USD), a significant increase from 1.4 billion RMB in 2022[5] - In Q4 2023, the net profit was 1.3 billion RMB (189 million USD), down from 2.1 billion RMB in Q4 2022 and 4.6 billion RMB in Q3 2023[5] - Adjusted EBITDA for Q4 2023 was 2.9 billion RMB (410 million USD), compared to 286 million RMB in Q4 2022 and 4.6 billion RMB in Q3 2023, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 28%[5] - The adjusted net profit attributable to Ctrip Group shareholders for Q4 2023 was 2.7 billion RMB (376 million USD), compared to 498 million RMB in Q4 2022[5] Expenses and Investments - Research and development expenses for Q4 2023 amounted to RMB 2.9 billion (USD 410 million), a 39% increase year-on-year[4] - Sales and marketing expenses in Q4 2023 were RMB 2.3 billion (USD 329 million), reflecting a 103% year-on-year increase[4] - The company plans to continue investing in technology and product innovation to enhance customer service and promote sustainable growth in the travel industry[2] - The company plans to continue expanding its market presence and enhancing its product offerings to drive future growth[15] - The company plans to continue expanding its market presence and investing in new technologies to drive future growth[17] Shareholder Returns - The company repurchased approximately 6.8 million American Depositary Shares for a total consideration of about 224 million USD from September 2023 to the announcement date[7] - A strategic capital return plan of up to 300 million USD was authorized by the board for implementation in 2024, which may include stock buybacks and cash dividends[7] Balance Sheet Highlights - As of December 31, 2023, cash and cash equivalents, restricted cash, short-term investments, and held-to-maturity deposits totaled 77.3 billion RMB (10.9 billion USD)[6] - The total assets of the company as of December 31, 2023, amounted to RMB 219,137 million, compared to RMB 191,691 million at the end of 2022, reflecting an increase of 14.3%[13] - Cash and cash equivalents increased to RMB 43,983 million in 2023 from RMB 18,487 million in 2022, showing a growth of 138%[13] - The total liabilities rose to RMB 96,131 million in 2023, up from RMB 78,672 million in 2022, indicating an increase of 22.2%[14] - The total equity attributable to shareholders increased to RMB 122,184 million in 2023 from RMB 112,283 million in 2022, a growth of 8.4%[14] - The company’s customer prepayments increased to RMB 13,380 million in 2023, up from RMB 8,278 million in 2022, indicating a growth of 61%[14] Earnings Per Share - For the full year 2023, the diluted earnings per share were 14.78 RMB (2.08 USD), increasing from 1.4 RMB in 2022[6] - The diluted earnings per share for the third quarter of 2023 was RMB 6.84, compared to RMB 3.12 in the same quarter of 2022, marking an increase of 119%[16]

Wall Street expects a year-over-year increase in earnings on higher revenues when Trip.com (TCOM) reports results for the quarter ended December 2023. While this widely-known consensus outlook is important in gauging the company's earnings picture, a powerful factor that could impact its near-term stock price is how the actual results compare to these estimates.The earnings report, which is expected to be released on February 21, 2024, might help the stock move higher if these key numbers are better than ex ...