Group 1 - The U.S. Secretary of Commerce, Gina Raimondo, is exploring the possibility of the federal government acquiring equity stakes in chip manufacturers that receive funding under the CHIPS Act for building factories in the U.S. [1] - This initiative extends from previous plans where the U.S. aimed to obtain partial equity in Intel in exchange for cash subsidies [1] - Raimondo is considering how the U.S. can secure stakes in companies like Micron Technology, TSMC, and Samsung while providing them with funding from the CHIPS Act, with most of the funds yet to be disbursed [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent significant sell-off in the U.S. tech stock market, highlighting concerns among traders about a potential repeat of the severe sell-off experienced in April. It emphasizes the growing interest in purchasing "disaster puts" as a hedge against further declines in major tech stocks, which have seen substantial gains since April [1][2][4]. Group 1: Market Trends - Major tech stocks in the U.S. experienced a sharp decline, with companies like Micron Technology dropping over 6%, Oracle and AMD falling over 5%, and others like Nvidia and TSMC ADR decreasing over 3% [1]. - The Nasdaq Composite Index fell by 1.46%, while the S&P 500 Index decreased by 0.59% [1]. - Since April 8, the "Big Seven" tech stocks have surged nearly 50%, raising concerns about potential triggers for a downturn [4]. Group 2: Trader Sentiment - Wall Street traders are increasingly purchasing "disaster puts" for the Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 ETF, indicating heightened anxiety about market declines [2][3]. - The cost of hedging against significant market drops is nearing a three-year high, reflecting traders' fears of a repeat of the April sell-off [2]. Group 3: Economic Indicators - Goldman Sachs economists warn that the slowdown in the U.S. job market is not over and may worsen, with employment growth estimates falling below the necessary levels to maintain full employment [6][7]. - The firm predicts three rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year, with potential further cuts in 2026 if hiring remains weak [7]. Group 4: Political Context - Former President Trump criticized Goldman Sachs for its pessimistic economic forecasts, particularly regarding tariffs and their impact on consumers [8].

他强调，芯片法案原本就是对有钱企业的送礼。「我们对英特尔的态度是，把拜登原本打算白送的钱， 转换成美国人民的股权。是的，对英特尔而言比免费补助糟，但对纳税人来说更有利，这就是特朗普的 思维。」 外界关注英特尔获得大笔银弹支援后，与台积电的竞合关系发展。 美国商务部长卢特尼克接受采访时，批评资金流向台积电，「我们希望英特尔在美国取得成功」，并证 实美方有意通过原以芯片法案补助英特尔的资金，取得英特尔股权。 卢特尼克强调，美国不能依赖中国台湾制造芯片，且美国总统特朗普认为，拜登时期提供英特尔资金， 因此应让联邦政府「获得股权」。至于政府是否会因持有英特尔10%股份而介入公司治理，他则否认： 「不，别想太多。我们只是把拜登时期的补助金，转换成特朗普政府下的股权。这不是治理问题。」 卢特尼克说，在国安考量下，美国必须能在本土制造芯片，不能过度依赖中国台湾。就地理距离来看， 中国台湾距离美国9,500英里，距离中国大陆仅80英里，99%的先进芯片都集中在中国台湾，显然不可 行。 他补充，这也是美日、美韩协议的一部分，要建立足够的基础设施与产能，好让美国有能力制造这些芯 片。 「如果英特尔能够在美国生产芯片节点、推动本土 ...

Group 1 - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index declined by 0.9% on Tuesday [1] - TSMC fell over 3%, while Alibaba, NetEase, JD.com, Baidu, and Bilibili each dropped over 1% [1] - Futu Holdings decreased by more than 2%, and Li Auto fell nearly 1% [1] Group 2 - Xpeng and NIO saw gains of over 4% [1]

Core Insights - Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) is advancing its global manufacturing expansion to meet the demand for advanced process technologies, raising its planned U.S. investment to $165 billion by March 2025 [1][10] - The expansion includes six advanced wafer fabs, two advanced packaging facilities, and a major R&D center in Arizona, aimed at supporting leading-edge customers in smartphones, AI, and HPC applications [1][10] - TSMC is also expanding in Japan with its first Kumamoto specialty fab already in production and a second fab set to begin construction later this year [2] - In Europe, TSMC plans to establish a specialty technology fab in Dresden, Germany [2] - This global expansion strategy is intended to secure leadership in advanced chip manufacturing and address geopolitical concerns through supply chain diversification [3] Financial Performance and Projections - TSMC anticipates a gross margin contraction of 2-3% in 2025, with further dilution expected to widen to 3-4% annually in subsequent years due to the ramp-up of new fabs [3][10] - In Q2 2025, TSMC's gross margin declined by 20 basis points sequentially, with forecasts indicating a further contraction of 210 basis points in Q3 [4] - The company plans to allocate $38-$42 billion in capital expenditures (CapEx) for 2025, emphasizing the importance of execution and cost discipline to protect margins [4] - Despite these challenges, TSMC remains confident in sustaining a long-term gross margin above 53% [4] Competitive Landscape - TSMC leads the global foundry market, but competitors like Intel and GlobalFoundries are increasing their efforts in localized chip manufacturing [5] - Intel is investing $100 billion for new fabs in the U.S. and Europe under its IDM 2.0 strategy, aiming to compete directly with TSMC [6] - GlobalFoundries is expanding capacity in the U.S., Germany, and Singapore to meet demand for automotive, IoT, and industrial chips, positioning itself as a trusted local manufacturing partner [7] Stock Performance and Valuation - TSMC's shares have increased approximately 22.3% year-to-date, outperforming the Zacks Computer and Technology sector's growth of 13.8% [8] - The company trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 23.13, which is lower than the sector's average of 28.19 [12] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for TSMC's earnings in 2025 and 2026 indicates a year-over-year increase of 36.9% and 13.1%, respectively, although estimates have been revised downwards recently [15]

Core Viewpoint - Chip stocks experienced a broad decline on Tuesday, with significant drops in major companies [1] Company Performance - AMD (AMD.US) fell over 4% [1] - NVIDIA (NVDA.US) decreased by more than 1.2% [1] - Broadcom (AVGO.US) dropped over 1.5% [1] - TSMC (TSM.US) declined by more than 1.7% [1] - Super Micro Computer (SMCI.US) saw a decrease of over 2.3% [1] - CoreWeave (CRWV.US) experienced a decline of more than 5.5% [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the electronic industry, indicating expected performance above the market index by more than 10% [1][11]. Core Views - The report emphasizes the continued recommendation of the AI computing chain, domestic multi-phase controllers, and the acceleration of the OCS industry process. The electronic sector is expected to benefit from macro policy cycles, inventory cycles, and AI innovation cycles, leading to a valuation expansion trend in 2025 [1]. - The semiconductor industry remains optimistic, with TSMC raising its revenue growth forecast from approximately 25% to 30% due to strong AI demand and moderate recovery in non-AI demand [1]. - The report highlights the significant growth in the AI server business, with expectations of over 170% year-on-year revenue growth in the third quarter for AI servers [4]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.70%, while the electronic sector increased by 7.02%, with components up by 9.88% and optical electronics up by 2.36% in the past week [12]. - The report notes that the North American computing power surge has driven sentiment in related supply chains, particularly benefiting the switch and server industries [1]. Semiconductor Industry - The report discusses the impact of potential tariffs on chips by the U.S. government, emphasizing the trend towards semiconductor localization and recommending companies with strong reserves in mature processes [2]. - The report also mentions the optimistic outlook for domestic semiconductor manufacturers, with companies like SMIC and Huahong Semiconductor showing strong order demand [1][2]. PCB and Copper Clad Laminate Industry - The report notes a price increase in copper clad laminates due to high raw material costs, which is expected to enhance revenue and profitability for related companies [3]. - The demand for high-end PCBs is expected to surge due to the explosion of AI computing infrastructure, leading to significant growth for companies in this sector [3]. Storage Market - The storage market is showing signs of recovery, with SanDisk reporting a 12% quarter-on-quarter revenue increase and a significant rise in cloud business revenue [5]. - The report highlights the potential for domestic storage manufacturers to gain market share as Micron exits the mobile NAND market [8]. Key Investment Recommendations - The report recommends a focus on companies such as Industrial Fulian, Saiwei Electronics, and Huahong Semiconductor, among others, as part of the investment strategy in the electronic sector [1][10].

智通财经APP获悉，周二，芯片股普跌，截至发稿，AMD(AMD.US)跌超4%，英伟达(NVDA.US)跌超 1.2%，博通(AVGO.US)跌超1.5%，台积电(TSM.US)跌超1.7%，超微电脑(SMCI.US)跌超2.3%， CoreWeave(CRWV.US)跌超5.5%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant advancements and investments made by TSMC in the semiconductor industry, particularly in the United States, and the implications for its profitability and market position [2][4]. Group 1: TSMC's Financial Performance - TSMC reported a substantial after-tax net profit of 398.27 billion NTD in Q2, marking a year-on-year increase of over 60%, with a net profit margin of 42.7% [2]. - The company's investment in U.S. chip factories is showing promising results, with an after-tax net profit of 4.23 billion NTD from U.S. operations, although this is a small fraction of the total profit [2]. Group 2: U.S. Investments and Production Capacity - TSMC's total investment in the U.S. is projected to reach 165 billion USD, which remains significant even after accounting for subsidies from the U.S. CHIPS Act [4]. - The first U.S. factory, producing 4nm chips, has commenced operations with full capacity booked by clients like Apple and AMD [4]. - The second factory, expected to produce 3nm chips, is under construction and is anticipated to begin operations in Q3 of the following year [4]. Group 3: Profitability Milestones - TSMC's Arizona wafer plant, after four years and nearly 40 billion NTD in cumulative losses, is expected to achieve an after-tax net profit of 4.23 billion NTD by Q2 2025, with a total profit of 4.73 billion NTD in the first half of that year [4]. - This milestone indicates a shift towards profitability for TSMC's advanced manufacturing setup in the U.S., contrasting with the ongoing losses at Japan's Kumamoto plant [4].

Core Viewpoint - The competition in the 2nm wafer foundry market is intensifying, with TSMC setting a price of approximately $30,000 per wafer, which is 50-66% higher than the current 3nm process, while Samsung is adopting a lower price strategy to attract customers [1][2]. Group 1: TSMC's Strategy - TSMC plans to start trial production of its 2nm process within 34 months, targeting a monthly capacity of 30,000 to 35,000 wafers, with a long-term goal of reaching 60,000 wafers per month by 2026 [1]. - The initial yield rate for TSMC's 2nm process is around 60%, while the yield for SRAM exceeds 90%, indicating a smooth path to mass production [1]. - TSMC's pricing strategy focuses on maximizing profits by catering to high-performance computing (HPC) and artificial intelligence (AI) customers, such as Apple, NVIDIA, and AMD [1][2]. Group 2: Samsung's Response - Samsung's 2nm process currently has a yield rate of about 40%, and the company is emphasizing its price competitiveness and quick supply response to attract new customers [2][3]. - Samsung has secured a significant contract with Tesla for the production of next-generation AI chips, which is seen as a recognition of its pricing strategy and supply flexibility [2][3]. - The competition in the 2nm era will depend on various factors, including technological strength, pricing, supply speed, and long-term partnerships [3].