周四科技股反弹，台积电重新提振了市场对人工智能需求韧性的信心。金属价格则从历史高位回落，特 朗普暗示暂缓对伊朗采取回应措施，布油跌穿65美元，投资者对避险资产的需求降温。 截至发稿，道指期货涨0.12%，标普500指数期货涨0.39%，纳指期货涨0.80%。 科技板块推动欧洲斯托克600指数上涨0.4%，刷新历史新高，芯片设备制造商领涨板块。ASML控股公 司在阿姆斯特丹上涨逾7%，该公司将台积电视为其最大客户。 在这家"AI风向标"公司表示将把2026年资本支出至少提高四分之一、最高增至560亿美元，并预测营收 增长快于市场预期后，纳斯达克100指数期货从下跌转为上涨0.8%。而标普500指数期货上涨0.4%。 台积电供应商应用材料公司与泛林集团在盘前交易中均上涨逾5%。科技巨头"七巨头"全线上涨，不过 涨幅相对更为温和。 Allspring Global Investments投资组合经理Gary Tan表示："台积电的指引方式暗示市场一致预期仍有上 调空间，并支持较为建设性的前景判断。" Capital.com分析师Kyle Rodda表示："华尔街正在发生板块轮动，这最终拖累了指数表现，但也表明市 场 ...

Market Overview - The major indices showed mixed performance with the ChiNext Index up by 0.56%, Shenzhen Component Index up by 0.41%, Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.33%, STAR Market 50 down by 0.46%, and North Exchange 50 down by 2.28% [1] - The TMT sector led the gains with SW Electronic Chemicals III up by 4.85%, SW Semiconductor Materials up by 4.47%, and SW Semiconductor Equipment up by 4.45% [1] - Conversely, the TMT sector saw declines with SW Marketing Agency down by 8.58%, SW Other Communication Equipment down by 7.14%, and SW Communication Application Value-Added Services down by 5.07% [1] Domestic News - TSMC's revenue for Q4 2025 is projected to reach $33.67 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 25.5% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 5.7%. The 3nm process is expected to account for 28% of Q4 wafer sales revenue, while advanced processes (including 7nm and more advanced) will contribute 77% to the wafer sales revenue [2] - Huixin Laser recently launched a domestically produced 112G VCSEL chip, achieving performance that matches top international products and demonstrating higher yield and reliability [2] - A team from Xi'an University of Electronic Science and Technology has developed a new chip cooling structure that reduces interface thermal resistance to one-third of the traditional "island" structure, significantly enhancing heat dissipation efficiency and overall performance [2] - Zhixing Technology has been selected as a supplier for a Korean automotive group's advanced driver assistance solutions for four vehicle models, with expected sales reaching one million units over the product lifecycle from 2026 to 2033, with nearly half of the products destined for overseas markets [2] International News - The U.S. White House announced a 25% import tariff on certain semiconductor and semiconductor manufacturing equipment starting January 15, 2024, with exemptions for chips imported to support domestic technology supply chain development [3] - Samsung plans to close its 8-inch wafer fab S7 in the second half of this year, reducing its monthly capacity from 250,000 wafers to below 200,000 wafers, focusing resources on more profitable 12-inch wafer fabs [3] - Ankeo will close its Hakodate factory in Japan, which produces general semiconductor packaging for automotive applications, with production of some products ending and others transitioning to different factories by April 2027 [3] - GlobalFoundries has signed an agreement to acquire Synopsys' ARC processor IP solutions business, which will accelerate its roadmap in physical AI and enhance its capabilities in custom chip solutions [3] AI Insights - Google released an update for Veo 3.1, introducing features that enhance video creation from materials, achieving high consistency in dynamic scenes and supporting native vertical screen generation and 4K ultra-high-definition quality [4] - The Qianwen app, launched two months ago, has surpassed 100 million monthly active users and will integrate with Alibaba's ecosystem for AI-driven services like food delivery and ticket booking [4] - Google introduced the MedGemma 1.5 model, which supports three-dimensional medical imaging and improves longitudinal image analysis and medical document understanding [4] - The Artificial Analysis Speech Reasoning leaderboard updated, with Step-Audio-R1.1 model ranking first, evaluating the ability of native speech models to process audio and perform complex logical reasoning [4] Industry Tracking - The Beijing Rocket Street project has completed its construction and is now operational, providing shared services for the commercial aerospace sector [5] - A team from Peking University has achieved a significant speed increase in Fourier transform calculations, enhancing computational speed from approximately 130 billion to 500 billion calculations per second, with energy efficiency improvements exceeding 90 times [5] - A joint team from Southeast University and Zijinshan Laboratory has developed a dynamic configurable mobile communication baseband signal processing ASIC chip, achieving a throughput of 9.6 Gb/s and supporting full-stack protocols for 5G and 6G applications [5] - Star Motion Era and SF Technology have signed a contract to promote the large-scale application of embodied intelligent robots in the supply chain, enhancing efficiency and quality across various operational processes [5]

Core Insights - The article discusses the investment positions held by analysts in companies such as TSM, NVDA, AMD, and INTC, indicating a bullish sentiment towards these stocks [1]. Group 1 - Analysts have a beneficial long position in TSM, NVDA, AMD, and INTC, either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives [1]. - The article expresses personal opinions of the author, emphasizing that no compensation is received for the views presented [1]. - There is no business relationship with any company mentioned in the article, reinforcing the independence of the analysis [1].

记者丨江佩霞 编辑丨张嘉钰 1月15日美股盘前，截至20:45，美国三大股指期货齐涨，纳指期货涨0.77%，标普500指数期 货涨0.34%，道指期货涨0.19%。 | へ 美洲市场(HY) | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | ES | 标普500期货小型 | 6990.00d | 23.75 | 0.34% | | NO | 纳斯达克100期货小型 | 25828.75d | 197.75 | 0.77% | | MNQ | 纳斯达克100期货微型 | 25829.00d | 198.00 | 0.77% | | YM | 道琼斯期货小型 | 49452d | 96 | 0.19% | 美股半导体概念股集体拉升，其中应用材料涨近7%，台积电涨超6%，阿斯麦涨超5%， AMD、博通、英伟达涨超1%。 | NYSE USD 20:04:00 | | | | | | ADR △ + | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 盘前价 | 347.400 涨幅＾＾ | 6.20% | 交生 | 7.64% 120 ...

Market Overview - The regulatory signals have led to market adjustments, with A-shares experiencing significant declines, while Hong Kong stocks saw a minor drop of 0.28% [1] - Ctrip (09961) faced a substantial drop of over 19% due to regulatory scrutiny [1] - The geopolitical situation in Iran is escalating, prompting the U.S. to reposition military assets and leading to increased security measures in Israel [1] Gold Market - Domestic gold jewelry prices have risen, surpassing 1435 CNY per gram, with some brands increasing prices to 1439 CNY [2] - Sixi Group (00590) has successfully leveraged marketing strategies, including collaborations with popular IPs, resulting in a price increase of over 6% [2] - The People's Bank of China announced a 0.25 percentage point reduction in relending and rediscount rates, signaling a potential easing of monetary policy [2] Real Estate Sector - Hong Kong's real estate market is showing strong activity, with a record high of 80,702 property sale agreements registered in 2025 [3] - New World Development (00017) saw a nearly 10% increase in stock price due to acquisition rumors and positive valuation adjustments [3] - Vanke (02202) is proposing differentiated options for bondholders, leading to a nearly 7% increase in its stock price [3] Foreign Investment and Industry Trends - UBS's recent conference reiterated an overweight position on Chinese stocks, citing low valuations and supportive policies for capital inflow [4] - The lithium battery sector is experiencing a surge in demand due to export incentives, with companies like Ganfeng Lithium (01772) and Tianqi Lithium (09696) seeing stock increases of over 6% [4] - Hydrogen fuel technology is gaining traction, with Yihua Tong (02402) reporting successful international deliveries, resulting in a stock increase of over 9% [4] Semiconductor Industry - TSMC reported a 35% profit increase in Q4, exceeding expectations, and plans significant capital expenditures for 2025 and 2026 [5] - Semiconductor companies like Hua Hong Semiconductor (01347) and SMIC (00981) are benefiting from TSMC's performance, with stock increases of over 6% and nearly 2%, respectively [5] Autonomous Driving and Technology - Shanghai's new action plan aims for large-scale implementation of high-level autonomous driving by 2027, positively impacting companies like Zhejiang Shibao (01057) and Baidu (09888) [6] - IDC's report on smartphone market share indicates Apple leading, with plans for innovative products, benefiting supply chain companies like Hong Teng Precision (06088) and others [6] Supply Chain Developments - Reports of tight supply for high-end glass fiber cloth have emerged, with major tech companies seeking new suppliers, benefiting companies like Jiantao Group (00148) [7] Company-Specific Insights - Sunny Optical Technology (02382) is actively repurchasing shares, indicating confidence in its future, while its core products have achieved mass production [8] - The company anticipates significant growth in automotive lens shipments, with a projected increase of 40.3% year-on-year by October 2025 [9] - Sunny Optical is focusing on technological advancements in smart driving and XR applications, positioning itself favorably in the market [9]

TSM reported earnings per share of $3.09, beating the estimated $2.82.The company announced a 35% increase in its fourth-quarter profit, reaching a new record.TSM's financial health is highlighted by a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.19 and a strong liquidity position with a current ratio of approximately 2.69.Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (NYSE: TSM) is a leading player in the semiconductor industry, known for its role as the world's largest contract chipmaker. TSM specializes in producing advan ...

Core Insights - TSMC reported a consolidated revenue of approximately NT$1,460.9 billion for Q4 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 20.5% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.9% [1] - The net profit after tax for the same quarter was approximately NT$505.7 billion, with earnings per share of NT$19.5, both showing a year-on-year increase of 35.0% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 11.8% [1] - The gross margin was 62.3%, and the net profit margin was 48.3% [1] Revenue Breakdown - In Q4 2025, TSMC's revenue from advanced processes (including 7nm and more advanced processes) accounted for 77% of the total wafer sales revenue, with 3nm process shipments contributing 28%, 5nm contributing 35%, and 7nm contributing 14% [1] - High-performance computing (HPC) and smartphones accounted for 55% and 32% of revenue, respectively, while IoT, automotive, data communication equipment (DCE), and others contributed 5%, 5%, 1%, and 2% [2] Future Outlook - TSMC expects capital expenditures to rise to a record high of between $52 billion and $56 billion in 2026, following a total of $40.9 billion in capital expenditures for 2025 [2] - The company maintains over 90% market share in the AI chip market, which is expected to drive revenue growth [2] - According to Morgan Stanley, TSMC's revenue in 2026 is projected to grow by 30% year-on-year when measured in USD [3]

| = US 30 | 49.210.00 | 49,228.30 | 49,049.40 | +60.30 | +0.12% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | = US 500 | 6,954.20 | 6,955.70 | 6,912.20 | +27.20 | +0.39% | | 트 US Tech 100 | 25,669.90 | 25,683.30 | 25,399.10 | +204.00 | +0.80% | 2. 截至发稿，德国DAX指数跌0.23%，英国富时100指数涨0.43%，法国CAC40指数跌0.32%，欧洲斯托克50指数涨0.53%。 盘前市场动向 1. 1月15日(周四)美股盘前，美股三大股指期货齐涨。截至发稿，道指期货涨0.12%，标普500指数期货涨0.39%，纳指期货涨 0.80%。 | 德国DAX30 | 25,257.43 | 25,337.02 | 25,235.00 | -57.44 | -0.23% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 瑞 英国富时100 | 10 ...

Core Insights - Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) reported record profits for Q4, significantly exceeding Wall Street's expectations [1] Financial Performance - TSMC's Q4 earnings showcased a remarkable performance, indicating strong demand and operational efficiency [1] - The company's profits surpassed analyst forecasts, highlighting its competitive position in the semiconductor industry [1] Market Impact - The strong earnings report is likely to influence investor sentiment positively towards TSMC and the broader semiconductor sector [1] - TSMC's performance may set a benchmark for other companies in the industry, reflecting overall market health [1]

Group 1 - Beyond the Wall Investing offers a subscription service that can save investors thousands of dollars annually on equity research reports from banks, providing access to high-quality analysis [1] - Oakoff Investments, leading the investing group Beyond the Wall Investing, focuses on balancing growth and value by sharing proprietary Wall Street information and offers features such as a fundamentals-based portfolio and weekly analysis [2] Group 2 - The investing group provides regular alerts for short-term trade ideas based on technical signals and allows for ticker feedback from readers, fostering community engagement [2]