Group 1 - Dow futures decreased by 0.04%, while S&P 500 futures increased by 0.19% and Nasdaq futures rose by 0.47% [1] - SanDisk stock surged nearly 5% after Bernstein raised its target price from $300 to $580, with Micron Technology and Western Digital also rising over 3% [1] - UBS raised Intel's target price to $49, citing strong demand for personal computers and servers, and maintained a "neutral" rating [1] Group 2 - TSMC reported a 35% year-over-year profit increase in Q4, exceeding expectations and marking the eighth consecutive quarter of profit growth, leading to a stock increase of over 5% [2] - Nokia's stock rose by 4.4% after being selected as the network operations partner for New Zealand's Connexa, covering over 2,500 sites [2] - JPMorgan maintained an "overweight" rating on ASML with a target price of $1,518, expecting Q4 orders to reach €7 billion, surpassing market consensus by about 4%, resulting in a stock increase of over 5% [2] Group 3 - The Swiss Competition Commission has initiated a preliminary investigation into Microsoft's licensing fee increases, following complaints from private enterprises and government agencies regarding significant price hikes that may indicate anti-competitive behavior [3]

Core Insights - The global semiconductor industry is experiencing multiple positive signals, driven by TSMC's better-than-expected performance, the AI-driven storage supercycle, and accelerated domestic self-sufficiency in China [1][6] Group 1: TSMC's Performance - TSMC's Q4 2025 revenue reached NT$1.05 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 20.5%, with a net income per share of NT$19.50 [2] - In USD terms, TSMC's revenue for the quarter was $33.73 billion, up 25.5% year-on-year and 1.9% quarter-on-quarter [2] - TSMC's gross margin rose to 62.3%, and operating margin reached 54.0%, both at historical high levels [2] Group 2: AI-Driven Storage Demand - The AI wave is significantly increasing the demand for storage chips, with HBM becoming a standard for AI servers [3] - According to Counterpoint Research, the storage market has surpassed its historical peak from 2018, with suppliers' bargaining power at an all-time high [3] - Market prices for storage chips are expected to rise by 40% to 50% in Q1 2026, followed by an additional 20% increase in Q2 [3] - The investment in equipment for a 12-inch DRAM production line exceeds 70%, with increasing requirements for precision and capacity due to advancements in HBM technology [3] Group 3: Domestic Self-Sufficiency in China - China's semiconductor industry is moving towards self-sufficiency, with domestic equipment replacement rates increasing from 25% in 2025 to 35% in January 2026 [4] - Core equipment replacement rates, such as etching and deposition equipment, have surpassed 40% [4] - The national fund's accelerated investment and local industry funds are focusing on critical areas like equipment and materials [4][5] Group 4: Investment Opportunities - The semiconductor equipment ETF, E Fund (159558), is gaining attention, with net inflows exceeding 430 million in the last five days and over 1 billion in the last ten days [6] - The ETF provides an efficient tool for investors to gain exposure to this high-growth sector amid market volatility [8]

周四，阿斯麦在阿姆斯特丹股市盘中涨幅一度达 7.6%，今年以来的累计涨幅由此扩大至 24%。阿斯麦 也成为继奢侈品巨头路威酩轩集团和丹麦制药企业诺和诺德之后，第三家市值迈入 5000 亿美元俱乐部 的欧洲企业。 此番阿斯麦市值突破标志性关口，导火索是台积电在周四宣布，2026 年资本支出预算最高将达 560 亿 美元，超出市场预期。这一规划也直观体现出，这家芯片代工巨头正深度受益于全球人工智能热潮。 巴克莱银行策略师伊曼纽尔・科表示："从市场情绪层面来看，这一里程碑意义重大。欧洲市场体量较 小，因此作为龙头股的阿斯麦股价上涨，自然会带动整个大盘走高。同时，阿斯麦的上涨行情也为欧洲 投资者提供了参与人工智能主流赛道的切入点。" 此前人工智能概念股出现波动迹象，而台积电的业绩展望为 2026 年全球人工智能领域持续投入注入了 新的信心。目前，市场已承诺投入数千亿美元，用于建设训练和运行人工智能所需的数据中心，这股热 潮不仅推动了芯片制造商的增长，也惠及了冷水机组生产商等一众相关企业。 来源：环球市场播报 在核心客户台积电发布超预期的 2026 年业绩展望后，荷兰半导体设备制造商阿斯麦控股公司股价飙升 至历史新高， ...

Market Overview - U.S. stock futures rose on Thursday after a decline on Wednesday, with major benchmark indices showing positive movement [1] - The Nasdaq Composite fell 1% on Wednesday due to a 25% tariff on select semiconductor imports, overshadowing U.S. approval for exports to China [1] - The Supreme Court delayed its ruling on the legality of the tariff framework, contributing to ongoing tariff uncertainty [1] Treasury Yields and Market Projections - The 10-year Treasury bond yielded 4.15%, while the two-year bond was at 3.52% [2] - Markets are pricing a 95% likelihood that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged in January [2] Index Performance - Dow Jones increased by 0.11%, S&P 500 by 0.36%, Nasdaq 100 by 0.75%, and Russell 2000 by 0.16% [2] - The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY) rose 0.34% to $692.68, and Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (NASDAQ:QQQ) advanced 0.71% to $623.95 in premarket trading [2] Stocks in Focus - Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (NYSE:GS) was down 0.44% in premarket as analysts expect quarterly earnings of $11.65 per share on revenue of $13.79 billion [5] - Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. Ltd. (NYSE:TSM) gained 4.46% after reporting a 35% profit surge for the fourth quarter, with net profit reaching T$505.7 billion ($16 billion) [5] - Applied Materials Inc. (NASDAQ:AMAT) rose 6% following an upgrade to 'Positive' from 'Neutral' by Susquehanna analyst Mehdi Hosseini, with a new price target of $400 [5] - Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN) increased by 0.67% after AWS launched a new European Sovereign Cloud with a €7.8 billion ($9.1 billion) investment [5] - Calavo Growers Inc. (NASDAQ:CVGW) shares surged 12.93% despite downbeat fourth-quarter results, following Mission Produce's announcement to acquire Calavo at $27 per share [4] Analyst Insights - BlackRock maintains an optimistic outlook for the U.S. market, emphasizing solid economic growth and the transformative potential of artificial intelligence [10] - The firm notes that U.S. corporate earnings strength is broadening beyond the Magnificent 7, supporting their positive stance on equities [10] - BlackRock highlights a unique economic environment where mega forces are driving returns, favoring AI and cyclical sectors like industrials and materials [11] - The labor market is characterized as being in a "no hiring, no firing" stasis, which supports consumption without overheating [11] Upcoming Economic Data - Investors are anticipating initial jobless claims data, delayed U.S. import prices data, and manufacturing surveys [15]

Market Overview - U.S. stock futures rose on Thursday after a decline on Wednesday, with major benchmark indices showing positive movement [1] - The Nasdaq Composite fell 1% on Wednesday due to a 25% tariff on select semiconductor imports, overshadowing U.S. approval for exports to China [1] - The Supreme Court delayed its ruling on the legality of the tariff framework, contributing to ongoing tariff uncertainty [1] Treasury Yields and Market Projections - The 10-year Treasury bond yielded 4.15%, while the two-year bond was at 3.52% [2] - Markets are pricing a 95% likelihood that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged in January [2] Index Performance - Dow Jones increased by 0.11%, S&P 500 by 0.36%, Nasdaq 100 by 0.75%, and Russell 2000 by 0.16% [2] - The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) rose 0.34% to $692.68, and Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (QQQ) advanced 0.71% to $623.95 in premarket trading [2] Stocks in Focus - Goldman Sachs Group Inc. was down 0.44% in premarket as analysts expect earnings of $11.65 per share on revenue of $13.79 billion [5] - Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. Ltd. reported a 35% profit surge for the fourth quarter, with net profit reaching T$505.7 billion ($16 billion), marking its seventh consecutive quarter of double-digit growth [5] - Applied Materials Inc. rose 6% after an upgrade to 'Positive' from 'Neutral', with a new price target of $400 [5] - Amazon.com Inc. increased by 0.67% following the launch of a new European Sovereign Cloud with a €7.8 billion ($9.1 billion) investment [5] - Calavo Growers Inc. shares surged 12.93% despite downbeat fourth-quarter results, following Mission Produce's announcement to acquire Calavo at $27 per share [4] Analyst Insights - BlackRock maintains an optimistic outlook for the U.S. market, emphasizing solid economic growth and the transformative potential of artificial intelligence [10] - The firm notes that U.S. corporate earnings strength is broadening beyond the Magnificent 7, supporting their positive stance on equities [10] - BlackRock highlights a unique economic environment where mega forces are driving returns, favoring AI and cyclical sectors [11] - The labor market is characterized as stable, supporting consumption without overheating [11] - Despite optimism, BlackRock remains cautious about potential wage gains leading to sticky inflation [12] Commodities and Global Markets - Crude oil futures fell by 3.36% to around $59.75 per barrel [14] - Gold Spot price decreased by 0.38% to approximately $4,609.13 per ounce [14] - Bitcoin traded 2.05% higher at $96,927.28 per coin [14]

【导读】台积电业绩"拯救"科技股 中国基金报记者 泰勒 公司 高性能计算（HPC） 业务（涵盖AI与5G应用）在2025年第四季度贡献了 55% 的营收，为最大收入来源； 智能手机相关需求 占 32% 。 台积电表示，本季度 7纳米及以下 的先进芯片占晶圆营收的 77% 。按2025年全年计，这类芯片占营收的 74% ，高于2024年的 69% 。 在半导体技术中，纳米数越小通常代表晶体管设计越紧凑，从而带来更快的处理速度与更高的能效。 公司希望今年进一步扩大其最先进的 2纳米 产品供应能力，此前已在上一季度启动量产。 大家好，关注一下半导体的利好消息！ 1月15日下午，台积电公布最新业绩，2025年第四季度利润同比增长35%，不仅高于市场预期，而且创下新纪录，反映出人工智能 芯片需求依然强劲。 这家全球最大的晶圆代工厂商已连续 八个季度 实现利润同比增长。 与此同时，台积电2025年12月当季营收同比增长20.5%至 超过新台币1万亿元 ，同样高于市场预期。 在财报电话会议上，台积电管理层预计本季营收将达到 346亿至358亿美元 ，环比增长4%；按区间中值计算，同比增幅约为 38%。 台积电财务长黄仁昭在 ...

台积电(TSM.US)盘前大涨超5%，报344美元，开盘势创历史新高。消息面上，台积电公布业绩显示， 第四季度净利润同比大幅增长35%，创下历史新高，且超出市场预期。第四季度毛利率达62.3%，远超 市场预期。台积电还给出2026年营收再增30%的强劲指引。分析人士指出，台积电Q4的强劲业绩及 2026年营收指引，清晰释放出人工智能热潮将持续的信号。 | TSM 台积电 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 327.110 ↓-4.100 -1.24% | | 收盘价 01/14 16:00 美东 | | 344.240 ↑ 17.130 +5.24% | | 盘前价 01/15 04:55 美东 | | 一 % 24 4 8 8 9 目 ♥自选 | | ● 快捷交易 | | 最高价 329.860 | 开盘价 329.860 | 成交量 1121.08万 | | 最低价 324.820 | 昨收价 331.210 | 成交额 36.65亿 | | 平均价 326.922 | 市空率 34.07 | 总市值 1.7万亿(-) | | 振 幅 1.52% | 市盈率(静) 46.23 | 总股 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent trade agreement between Taiwan and the U.S. is perceived as a detrimental exchange that compromises Taiwan's economic and security interests, with concerns that it may lead to increased dependency on the U.S. and potential economic downturns for Taiwan [3][6][10]. Group 1: Trade Agreement Implications - The trade agreement will reduce tariffs on U.S. exports to Taiwan to 15%, while Taiwan's largest chip manufacturer, TSMC, is expected to significantly increase investments in the U.S. [3] - This agreement is viewed as a transaction that trades Taiwan's core interests for economic benefits, raising concerns about Taiwan's autonomy and economic future [3][6]. - The reduction in tariffs is seen as a superficial benefit that may lead to long-term economic challenges, as it pressures Taiwanese industries to relocate to the U.S. [5][6]. Group 2: Economic Dependency and Risks - Taiwan's economy is heavily reliant on exports, and the increasing dependence on trade with the U.S. could jeopardize Taiwan's negotiating power in future dealings [6][10]. - The potential for U.S. demands to escalate poses a risk to Taiwan's economic stability, as the country may find itself with limited options if pressured [6][10]. - The historical context of economic shocks from the 2008 financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic is overshadowed by the current trade dynamics, suggesting that the U.S. may continue to exploit Taiwan's resources [10]. Group 3: Military Purchases and Public Sentiment - The focus on military purchases is criticized as a move that could escalate tensions in the Taiwan Strait, with public sentiment indicating a reluctance to sacrifice lives for independence [8]. - There is a growing discontent among the Taiwanese populace regarding the allocation of resources towards U.S. military equipment, perceived as a betrayal of local interests [8]. - The military procurement strategy is viewed as a misguided approach that prioritizes external alliances over the well-being of Taiwanese citizens [8].

Core Viewpoint - ASML's stock price rose nearly 5% to $1326 in pre-market trading, potentially reaching a historical high, following TSMC's strong Q4 performance and optimistic 2026 outlook [1] Group 1: TSMC Performance - TSMC reported a significant 35% year-on-year increase in net profit for Q4, achieving a record high that exceeded market expectations [1] - The gross margin for TSMC in Q4 reached 62.3%, which was well above market forecasts [1] - TSMC provided a strong revenue guidance for 2026, projecting a further 30% increase [1] Group 2: ASML's Market Position - Morgan Stanley's report indicates that ASML's Q4 order intake is expected to reach €7 billion, surpassing market consensus by approximately 4% due to orders from TSMC and Samsung [1] - The firm maintains an "overweight" rating on ASML's stock with a target price of $1518, suggesting a potential upside of about 20% from the closing price on January 14 [1]

Market Overview - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 2.91 trillion yuan, a decrease of 1.04 trillion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.33%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.41%, and the ChiNext Index increased by 0.56% [1] - The Semiconductor Equipment ETF (159516) saw a significant increase, closing up by 5.32% [1] Semiconductor Equipment ETF Details - The closing price of the Semiconductor Equipment ETF was 1.901, with an opening price of 1.805 and a lowest price of 1.783 [2] - The trading volume was 15.28 million shares, with a turnover rate of 20.50% [2] - The total trading value reached 2.821 billion yuan, with an average price of 1.846 [2] Factors Driving Growth - TSMC's capital expenditure (capex) expectations exceeded forecasts, with projections of 52 to 56 billion USD for 2026, indicating a growth rate of 27% to 37% compared to 2024's 40.9 billion USD [3] - The domestic semiconductor equipment industry is resonating with global computing power demands, as TSMC remains a key player in AI-related manufacturing [3] - The AI boom is expected to drive demand for various components, including PCBs and memory products, further enhancing the semiconductor industry's outlook [3] Storage Market Insights - The current increase in storage prices is attributed to rising demand driven by AI, with the global storage industry entering an expansion phase [4] - The domestic storage sector is benefiting from this price surge, with expectations of increased production capacity [4] Future Outlook - The AI technology wave is unlikely to slow down in the short term, with storage shortages expected to persist until 2026 [5] - The growth rate of storage demand may outpace that of chips, necessitating sufficient storage to match the increasing computational needs [5] - The Semiconductor Equipment ETF (159516) is recommended for continued observation, as ongoing price increases and upcoming product launches are expected to boost the semiconductor equipment sector [5]