Core Viewpoint - ASML's stock price surged to a record high following TSMC's strong 2026 earnings guidance, pushing its market capitalization above $500 billion [1][3] Group 1: ASML's Market Performance - ASML's stock price increased by 7.6% on Thursday, with a year-to-date gain of 24%, making it the third European company to reach a market cap of $500 billion, following LVMH and Novo Nordisk [1] - As of the report, ASML's stock was up over 4% in pre-market trading [1] Group 2: TSMC's Impact on ASML - TSMC's earnings report indicated a significant increase in capital expenditures for 2026, projected to rise from $40.9 billion in 2025 to between $52 billion and $56 billion, exceeding market expectations of $48 billion to $50 billion [3] - This guidance has generated optimism regarding continued growth in global AI spending, benefiting both TSMC and ASML amid strong demand driven by the AI wave [3] Group 3: Analyst Insights - Barclays strategist Emmanuel Cau noted that ASML's milestone is significant for market sentiment, as its rise can positively influence the overall European market [3] - Quilter Cheviot's Ben Barringer stated that the earnings reports provide a positive start to the earnings season for tech giants, aiding in assessing the performance of chip companies and semiconductor equipment suppliers [3] - JPMorgan's recent report anticipates strong order performance for ASML, projecting fourth-quarter orders to reach €7 billion, approximately 4% above the continually revised market consensus [3]

Industry & Operational Situation - In 2025, strong growth in AI-related demand was observed, while non-AI markets showed signs of recovery, with the "Foundry 2.0" industry growing by 16% year-on-year [1] - The "Foundry 2.0" industry is expected to grow by 14% year-on-year in 2026 [1] - AI accelerator business accounted for 15% of TSMC's revenue in 2025, with an upward revision of revenue growth forecast, expecting a CAGR of mid-to-high 50% from 2024 to 2029 [1] - TSMC's overall revenue is projected to have a CAGR of nearly 25% in USD from 2024 to 2029 [1] - The second phase of the Arizona facility has been completed, with production plans being advanced due to strong customer demand, aiming for mass production in the second half of 2027 [1] Financial Performance - Sales revenue reached NT$1,046.09 billion (approximately USD 33.73 billion), with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 5.7% and a year-on-year increase of 20.5% [2][3] - Net profit attributable to shareholders was NT$505.74 billion, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter increase of 11.8% and a year-on-year increase of 35.0% [2][3] - Gross margin was reported at 62.3%, up 2.8 percentage points quarter-on-quarter and 3.3 percentage points year-on-year, benefiting from favorable exchange rates and optimized capacity utilization [2][3] - Earnings per share (EPS) was NT$19.50, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 11.8% and a year-on-year increase of 35.0% [2][3] Capital Expenditure & Guidance - Capital expenditure (CapEx) was NT$356.91 billion, showing a quarter-on-quarter increase of 24.2% but a year-on-year decrease of 1.4% [5] - For Q1 2026, revenue guidance is set between USD 34.6 billion and USD 35.8 billion, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 4% and a year-on-year increase of 38% expected [5] - For the full year 2026, revenue is expected to grow nearly 30% year-on-year in USD, with market consensus at USD 150.44 billion, reflecting a growth of approximately 25% [6] - Long-term gross margin is expected to exceed 56%, with a focus on improving production efficiency and optimizing capacity across nodes [6] Market Dynamics & Customer Insights - TSMC's CEO expressed confidence in the sustainability of AI demand, citing positive feedback from customers regarding AI's impact on their business growth [7][8] - The company is accelerating capacity expansion in both Taiwan and Arizona to meet AI demand, with government support facilitating progress [8] - Despite concerns over rising storage costs, TSMC anticipates continued strong demand for high-end smartphones, which are less sensitive to price fluctuations [12][15] Technology & Competitive Landscape - TSMC's advanced process technologies, particularly in 3nm and upcoming 2nm nodes, are expected to maintain strong demand due to their performance advantages [18][20] - The company is committed to supporting all customers, even as it scales down 8-inch mature process capacity [14] - TSMC does not foresee a significant risk of market share loss to competitors like Intel, emphasizing the complexity and time required to develop advanced technologies [13]

全球半导体产业传出两则大消息！ 一是，得益于人工智能应用相关芯片需求的飙升，全球芯片代工龙头台积电2025年第四季度的利润创出新高； 二是，美国对部分半导体产品加征关税。 受此消息影响，半导体设备股集体拉升。周四美股盘前，应用材料涨近6%，台积电涨超5%，阿斯麦涨超4%， AMD、博通、英伟达涨超1%。 今日午后，A股三大指数探底回升，创业板指率先翻红。从盘面上看，半导体芯片板块午后大幅拉升，提振了 市场人气。该板块收盘时涨幅超过1.5%，矽电股份20%涨停，南大光电、芯源微、上海新阳等纷纷走强。 港股市场午后也探底回升，恒生指数一度逼近翻红；恒生科技指数跌幅也收窄至1%左右，该指数盘中跌幅一 度超过2%。半导体板块尾盘拉升，华虹半导体涨超6%，英诺赛科涨近3%，中芯国际涨近2%。 半导体大消息 1月15日午后，半导体板块大幅拉升，蓝箭电子、矽电股份陆续封死20%涨停，上海新阳、珂玛科技、芯源 微、恒坤新材、南大光电、江波龙、中科飞测、源杰科技、艾森股份、华润微、中微公司等纷纷拉升跟涨。截 至收盘时，半导体板块整体涨幅达到1.56%。 在半导体板块的带动下，PCB、CPO等AI硬件方向也大幅走高。截至收盘时， ...

Core Viewpoint - TSMC is accelerating the construction of advanced factories in the U.S. and Taiwan to meet strong demand for artificial intelligence (AI) and high-performance computing, with capital expenditures expected to reach up to $56 billion by 2026 [1][8]. Financial Performance - TSMC reported a record annual net profit of NT$1.717 trillion (approximately $55.2 billion) for 2025, a 46.4% increase from the previous year, with annual revenue reaching NT$3.809 trillion, up 31.6% from 2024 [1]. - In Q4, TSMC's net profit grew 35% year-on-year to NT$505.74 billion, with revenue of NT$1.046 trillion, reflecting a 20.4% increase, driven by strong demand for advanced chips used in AI computing and high-end processors [5]. Capital Expenditure and Investment Plans - TSMC plans to invest between $52 billion and $56 billion in 2026, a 36.9% increase from $40.9 billion in 2025, continuing a trend of high capital expenditures since 2020, which totaled over $180 billion [1][8]. - The company is focused on expanding its advanced manufacturing capabilities, particularly in Arizona, where it is accelerating the construction of its second factory and planning for a third [1][8]. Market Demand and Growth Projections - TSMC anticipates nearly 30% revenue growth in 2026, surpassing the wafer foundry industry's expected growth of 14% [4][11]. - The high-performance computing segment, including AI applications, accounted for 55% of TSMC's sales in the last quarter, indicating a strong market demand [7]. Challenges and Strategic Focus - TSMC acknowledges potential risks from memory shortages and rising component prices, which could impact consumer electronics and smartphone markets [5][8]. - The company is committed to maintaining a disciplined approach to capacity planning and pricing strategies to ensure sustainable growth and profitability [18][19].

Group 1 - TSMC has informed Nvidia and Broadcom that it cannot meet their large capacity demands due to overwhelming demand from the AI wave [1] - Broadcom has been requesting additional capacity from TSMC, primarily for the production of Google's Tensor Processing Units (TPUs) [1] - TSMC's recent expansion in Arizona will not provide immediate relief as the new facilities will take years to become fully operational [1] Group 2 - Intel's foundry business is becoming increasingly important as TSMC struggles to meet demand [1] - KeyBanc analyst John Vinh noted that while Intel may not challenge TSMC's leadership with its 18A process, it has the opportunity to surpass Samsung Electronics to become the second-largest foundry [1] - Intel's 18A process yield has improved to over 60%, indicating significant progress in its foundry operations [2] Group 3 - Apple is preparing to outsource the manufacturing of low-end processors for MacBook and iPad to Intel starting in 2027 [2] - Discussions are ongoing between Intel and Apple regarding the potential for Intel to manufacture low-end A-series mobile processors for iPhones using its next-generation 14A process by 2029 [2]

来源 | 华尔街见闻 台积电预计2026年资本支出将激增至560亿美元，超出市场预期，凸显其对全球AI繁荣持续性的强烈信心。公司同时预测2026年营收增长将 接近30%，高于分析师平均预期。 这一系列强劲数据反映出AI芯片需求持续旺盛，为台积电带来可观的定价能力和盈利空间，投资者将密切关注这一扩产周期能否持续支撑其 估值水平。 15日，台积电董事长兼首席执行官 C.C. Wei 与财务长 Wendell Huang举行2025 Q4绩后法说会。 台积电公布2026年资本支出计划最高 将达560亿美元，较2025年实际支出409亿美元大幅增长37%，创下该公司历史新高。 这一破纪录的投资规模凸显出全球最大芯片代工厂正 加速扩充产能，以满足人工智能芯片的强劲需求。 该公司同时发布的第一季度业绩指引超出市场预期。 台积电预计本季度营收将达346亿至358亿美元，高于彭博一致预期的332.2亿美元。 毛利率和营业利率指引也明显优于分析师预期，分别为63%-65%和54%-56%，远高于市场预估的59.6%和49.7%。 管理层表示： "未来三年资本支出将显著增加。实现56%及以上长期毛利率是可实现的。……产能非常紧张 ...

TSMC's stock jumps 5% after announcing a stonking set of 4Q numbers that have positive implications the companies it supplies and those who supply it. ...

Group 1 - Dow futures decreased by 0.04%, while S&P 500 futures increased by 0.19% and Nasdaq futures rose by 0.47% [1] - SanDisk stock surged nearly 5% after Bernstein raised its target price from $300 to $580, with Micron Technology and Western Digital also rising over 3% [1] - UBS raised Intel's target price to $49, citing strong demand for personal computers and servers, and maintained a "neutral" rating [1] Group 2 - TSMC reported a 35% year-over-year profit increase in Q4, exceeding expectations and marking the eighth consecutive quarter of profit growth, leading to a stock increase of over 5% [2] - Nokia's stock rose by 4.4% after being selected as the network operations partner for New Zealand's Connexa, covering over 2,500 sites [2] - JPMorgan maintained an "overweight" rating on ASML with a target price of $1,518, expecting Q4 orders to reach €7 billion, surpassing market consensus by about 4%, resulting in a stock increase of over 5% [2] Group 3 - The Swiss Competition Commission has initiated a preliminary investigation into Microsoft's licensing fee increases, following complaints from private enterprises and government agencies regarding significant price hikes that may indicate anti-competitive behavior [3]

Core Insights - The global semiconductor industry is experiencing multiple positive signals, driven by TSMC's better-than-expected performance, the AI-driven storage supercycle, and accelerated domestic self-sufficiency in China [1][6] Group 1: TSMC's Performance - TSMC's Q4 2025 revenue reached NT$1.05 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 20.5%, with a net income per share of NT$19.50 [2] - In USD terms, TSMC's revenue for the quarter was $33.73 billion, up 25.5% year-on-year and 1.9% quarter-on-quarter [2] - TSMC's gross margin rose to 62.3%, and operating margin reached 54.0%, both at historical high levels [2] Group 2: AI-Driven Storage Demand - The AI wave is significantly increasing the demand for storage chips, with HBM becoming a standard for AI servers [3] - According to Counterpoint Research, the storage market has surpassed its historical peak from 2018, with suppliers' bargaining power at an all-time high [3] - Market prices for storage chips are expected to rise by 40% to 50% in Q1 2026, followed by an additional 20% increase in Q2 [3] - The investment in equipment for a 12-inch DRAM production line exceeds 70%, with increasing requirements for precision and capacity due to advancements in HBM technology [3] Group 3: Domestic Self-Sufficiency in China - China's semiconductor industry is moving towards self-sufficiency, with domestic equipment replacement rates increasing from 25% in 2025 to 35% in January 2026 [4] - Core equipment replacement rates, such as etching and deposition equipment, have surpassed 40% [4] - The national fund's accelerated investment and local industry funds are focusing on critical areas like equipment and materials [4][5] Group 4: Investment Opportunities - The semiconductor equipment ETF, E Fund (159558), is gaining attention, with net inflows exceeding 430 million in the last five days and over 1 billion in the last ten days [6] - The ETF provides an efficient tool for investors to gain exposure to this high-growth sector amid market volatility [8]

周四，阿斯麦在阿姆斯特丹股市盘中涨幅一度达 7.6%，今年以来的累计涨幅由此扩大至 24%。阿斯麦 也成为继奢侈品巨头路威酩轩集团和丹麦制药企业诺和诺德之后，第三家市值迈入 5000 亿美元俱乐部 的欧洲企业。 此番阿斯麦市值突破标志性关口，导火索是台积电在周四宣布，2026 年资本支出预算最高将达 560 亿 美元，超出市场预期。这一规划也直观体现出，这家芯片代工巨头正深度受益于全球人工智能热潮。 巴克莱银行策略师伊曼纽尔・科表示："从市场情绪层面来看，这一里程碑意义重大。欧洲市场体量较 小，因此作为龙头股的阿斯麦股价上涨，自然会带动整个大盘走高。同时，阿斯麦的上涨行情也为欧洲 投资者提供了参与人工智能主流赛道的切入点。" 此前人工智能概念股出现波动迹象，而台积电的业绩展望为 2026 年全球人工智能领域持续投入注入了 新的信心。目前，市场已承诺投入数千亿美元，用于建设训练和运行人工智能所需的数据中心，这股热 潮不仅推动了芯片制造商的增长，也惠及了冷水机组生产商等一众相关企业。 来源：环球市场播报 在核心客户台积电发布超预期的 2026 年业绩展望后，荷兰半导体设备制造商阿斯麦控股公司股价飙升 至历史新高， ...