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ETF策略指数跟踪周报-20250728
HWABAO SECURITIES· 2025-07-28 03:58
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints The report presents several ETF strategy indices developed by Huabao Research, aiming to help investors convert quantitative models or subjective views into practical investment strategies. It tracks the performance and positions of these indices on a weekly basis, providing data on their excess returns over different time - frames [4][5][6]. 3. Summary by Directory 1. ETF Strategy Index Tracking - **ETF Strategy Index Last Week's Performance**: - The table shows the last week's performance of six ETF strategy indices, including their returns, benchmark returns, and excess returns. For example, the Huabao Research Size Rotation ETF Strategy Index had a last - week return of 1.78%, a benchmark (CSI 800) return of 2.10%, and an excess return of - 0.33% [13]. 1.1. Huabao Research Size Rotation ETF Strategy Index - **Strategy Principle**: It uses multi - dimensional technical indicator factors and a machine - learning model to predict the return difference between the Shenwan Large - Cap Index and the Shenwan Small - Cap Index. The model outputs weekly signals to determine positions and obtain excess returns [4][14]. - **Performance**: As of July 25, 2025, the excess return since 2024 was 17.92%, the recent one - month excess return was 0.16%, and the recent one - week excess return was - 0.33% [4][14]. - **Position**: As of July 25, 2025, it held 100% of the CSI 300 ETF [18]. 1.2. Huabao Research SmartBeta Enhanced ETF Strategy Index - **Strategy Principle**: It uses price - volume indicators to time self - built Barra factors and maps timing signals to ETFs based on their exposures to 9 Barra factors to obtain excess returns. The selected ETFs cover mainstream broad - based index ETFs and some style and strategy ETFs [4]. - **Performance**: As of July 25, 2025, the excess return since 2024 was 15.29%, the recent one - month excess return was - 1.20%, and the recent one - week excess return was 0.25% [4]. - **Position**: As of July 25, 2025, it held multiple ETFs such as the Value 100ETF, CSI 2000ETF, etc. [23]. 1.3. Huabao Research Quantitative Cyclone ETF Strategy Index - **Strategy Principle**: It starts from a multi - factor perspective, including the grasp of medium - and long - term fundamental dimensions, the tracking of short - term market trends, and the analysis of the behavior of various market participants. It uses valuation and crowding signals to indicate industry risks and multi - dimensionally digs out potential sectors to obtain excess returns [5][22]. - **Performance**: As of July 25, 2025, the excess return since 2024 was 8.22%, the recent one - month excess return was 4.29%, and the recent one - week excess return was 2.67% [5][22]. - **Position**: As of July 25, 2025, it held ETFs like the Building Materials ETF, Non - Ferrous Metals 60ETF, etc. [26]. 1.4. Huabao Research Quantitative Balance ETF Strategy Index - **Strategy Principle**: It uses a multi - factor system including economic fundamentals, liquidity, technical aspects, and investor behavior to build a quantitative timing system for equity market trend analysis. It also builds a prediction model for market size styles to adjust equity market position distribution and obtains excess returns through comprehensive timing and rotation [5][26]. - **Performance**: As of July 25, 2025, the excess return since 2024 was - 2.75%, the recent one - month excess return was - 2.91%, and the recent one - week excess return was - 1.03% [5][26]. - **Position**: As of July 25, 2025, it held ETFs such as the 10 - Year Treasury Bond ETF, CSI 1000ETF, etc. [30]. 1.5. Huabao Research Hot - Spot Tracking ETF Strategy Index - **Strategy Principle**: It tracks and mines hot - spot index target products in a timely manner based on strategies such as market sentiment analysis, industry event tracking, investor sentiment and professional views, policy and regulatory changes, and historical deduction. It constructs an ETF portfolio that can capture market hot - spots in time to provide investors with short - term market trend references [6][30]. - **Performance**: As of July 25, 2025, the recent one - month excess return was - 0.38%, and the recent one - week excess return was 1.48% [6][30]. - **Position**: As of July 25, 2025, it held ETFs such as the Non - Ferrous Metals 50ETF, Hong Kong Stock Consumption ETF, etc. [33]. 1.6. Huabao Research Bond ETF Duration Strategy Index - **Strategy Principle**: It uses bond market liquidity and price - volume indicators to screen effective timing factors and predicts bond yields through machine - learning methods. When the expected yield is below a certain threshold, it reduces the long - duration positions in the bond investment portfolio to improve long - term returns and drawdown control ability [6][33]. - **Performance**: As of July 25, 2025, the recent one - month excess return was 0.19%, and the recent one - week excess return was 0.12% [6][33]. - **Position**: As of July 25, 2025, it held ETFs such as the 10 - Year Treasury Bond ETF, Treasury Bond ETF 5 - 10 Years, etc. [38].
2025Q2泛固收类基金季报点评:如何进行资产配置?
HWABAO SECURITIES· 2025-07-25 12:03
1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In Q2 2025, A - shares and Hong Kong stocks showed different performances, with the overall market - value style in A - shares being dominant, and the bond market slightly recovered in June after fluctuations from April to May. REITs and convertible bond funds led the performance, and "fixed - income +" funds performed well driven by the equity market [4]. - Most fund managers expect the economy to continue a weak recovery in Q3 2025, with monetary policy remaining loose but limited room for interest - rate decline. Strategies focus on coupon income from medium - short - duration, medium - high - grade urban investment bonds and financial bonds, and the overall tone is prudent and flexible [40]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 固收型公募基金2025Q2季报数据解读 Performance - In Q2 2025, in the context of weak economic recovery, gradually restored equity sentiment, and intensified long - short game and fluctuations in the bond market, REITs and convertible bond funds led the performance, and "fixed - income +" funds performed well driven by the equity market. Pure - bond fund net values generally recovered [4]. - The top - performing funds in terms of Q2 2025 compounded unit net - value growth rate (%) were REITs funds (8.07%), convertible bond funds (3.49%), and QDII bond - type funds (1.38) [5]. Scale - By the end of Q2 2025, passive index - type bond funds received significant capital inflows and had the fastest scale growth [8]. Leverage - As of June 30, 2025, compared with March 31, 2025, the overall fund leverage showed an upward trend [11]. Duration - As of June 30, 2025, compared with March 31, 2025, the fitted durations of pure - bond funds all showed an upward trend [14]. Weighted Position Changes of Fixed - Income + Funds - By the end of Q2 2025, the convertible - bond positions of different types of fixed - income + funds were basically the same as in the previous quarter, while the stock positions all showed a downward trend [17]. - The top five industries for stock increase were non - bank finance, banking, communications, electronics, and medicine; the top five industries for stock reduction were food and beverage, automobiles, coal, basic chemicals, and home appliances [28]. Individual Stock Positions of Fixed - Income + Funds - The top ten stocks with the highest market value of holdings in Q2 2025 were Zijin Mining, Tencent Holdings, Yangtze Power, Contemporary Amperex Technology, China Merchants Bank, Midea Group, Kweichow Moutai, Alibaba - W, SF Holdings, and Haier Smart Home [30]. - The top ten stocks with the largest increase in market value of holdings in Q2 2025 were New H3C Technologies, Inphi Corporation, AVIC Shenyang Aircraft, Bank of Hangzhou, China Minsheng Bank, Yunnan Aluminum Co., Ltd., Zhaojin Mining Industry, China Merchants Bank, Zhongjin Gold, and SF Holdings [32]. - The top ten stocks with the largest decrease in market value of holdings in Q2 2025 were Wuliangye, Midea Group, Kweichow Moutai, Wanhua Chemical, Zijin Mining, Honglu Steel Structure, Hunan Gold, BYD, Shunxin Agriculture, and Luzhou Laojiao [34]. 3.2 固收型重点基金2025Q2后市展望观点汇总 Key Short - Term Bond Fund Managers' Views - Most short - term bond fund managers expect the bond market to continue the volatile market with high winning probability but low odds, and the bond - market trend is mainly determined by the liability side and policy orientation [39]. - Strategies focus on coupon income from medium - short - duration, medium - high - grade urban investment bonds and financial bonds, and the overall tone is prudent and flexible [40]. Key Medium - and Long - Term Bond Fund Managers' Views - Most medium - and long - term bond fund managers expect the bond market to continue the volatile pattern, with loose monetary policy continuing to support the bond market, while domestic demand is weak and the real - estate market is weakening marginally [41]. - Some managers suggest actively participating in interest - rate bond band trading, while others believe that the space for credit - spread compression is limited. Most still focus on medium - high - grade credit bonds [41]. Equity - Linked Fixed - Income Fund Managers' Views - For stock assets, most managers are relatively optimistic about the medium - term market outlook. Low - equity - position fixed - income + fund managers are relatively conservative, while some medium - and high - equity - position managers will increase the exploration and allocation in industries with relatively guaranteed short - and medium - term supply - demand environments and reasonable valuations [42]. - For convertible - bond assets, the supply - demand balance in the convertible - bond market remains tight, with overall high valuations and potential increased volatility, but there are still structural opportunities. Some managers will maintain a neutral - to - low position and shift to equity - oriented and balanced varieties [42]. - For pure - bond assets, managers generally maintain a neutral view, expecting the central - bank policy to remain consistent, the capital market to remain loose, and limited upward space for interest rates [42]. Key High - Position Convertible - Bond Enhanced Fund Managers' Views - Managers will maintain a relatively positive position, seize structural opportunities, and pay attention to the layout opportunities in technology self - controllability and the allocation opportunities after the sentiment of new consumption and innovative drugs cools down [45]. - They believe that the convertible - bond market has a relatively high valuation, with short - term cost - effectiveness and fault - tolerance rate reduced, but there are still structural opportunities, especially in equity - oriented convertible bonds [45]. QDII Bond - Fund Managers' Views - The global market in Q2 2025 was still dominated by policy. The impact of Trump's tariff policy continued to push up inflation expectations, and there were differences in the market's pricing of the Fed's interest - rate cut [46]. - In the future, although the probability of a US recession is relatively low, attention should be paid to the recurrence of tariff policies, and the US bond market may fluctuate bidirectionally in the short term [46][47]. REITs Fund Managers' Views - In Q2 2025, the performance of different types of REITs varied. The performance of rental - protection REITs was stable, the industrial - park REITs were under pressure, the consumer - infrastructure REITs performed steadily, the transportation REITs showed growth driven by traffic flow, the warehousing - logistics REITs were under pressure in terms of revenue, and the energy and environmental - protection REITs showed different performances [50][51][52].
期权策略详解(中):如何构建期权交易策略
HWABAO SECURITIES· 2025-07-25 11:41
Report Overview - Report Title: How to Construct Option Trading Strategies - Option Strategy Details (Part Two) [1] - Report Date: July 25, 2025 [1] - Analysts: Cheng Bingzhe, Zhang Shuai [2] Core Viewpoint - The real charm of options lies in constructing diverse trading strategies through combining different contracts, precisely expressing specific views on the market, and controlling risks and returns within a preset range [3][9]. - All option strategies are based on processing basic option positions to adapt to different market environments and manage risks. Understanding the option structure behind these strategies is the key to identifying their real risk and return sources [3][17]. Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report. Summary by Directory 1. On - site Option Strategies - Single - leg trading, which involves directly buying or selling call or put options, is the cornerstone of complex trading. Buying call options is suitable for bullish markets with limited cost and unlimited theoretical returns, while buying put options is for bearish markets. Selling options aims to earn stable cash flow but bears the risk of exercise. The covered call strategy, which combines with the underlying asset, is a relatively stable return - enhancement strategy [10]. - When investors have more refined views on the market, they can use combination strategies. Directional combinations like bull spreads are suitable for moderately bullish markets, and bear spreads for moderately bearish markets. Butterfly spreads are used for markets with narrow - range fluctuations. Volatility strategies such as straddle combinations are for markets with significant but uncertain - direction fluctuations. Calendar spreads use the time - value difference between different - maturity contracts and are suitable for stable or moderately volatile markets [11][13] 2. Off - site Option Strategies - Off - site options are customized agreements between financial institutions and customers to meet special risk - management needs. The "Snowball" product is well - known. Investors can get high coupons in a moderately rising or volatile market but face principal - loss risks in a sharp - falling market. The Dynamic Coupon Note (DCN) is a more flexible "Snowball - like" product. It optimizes cash flow and meets regulatory requirements but still has risks, such as one - time principal loss at maturity and dependence on the futures discount environment [15][16]
新股发行及今日交易提示-20250725
HWABAO SECURITIES· 2025-07-25 09:49
New Stock Issuance - HanSang Technology (301491) issued at a price of 28.91 on July 25, 2025[1] - ST Kelly (300326) has a tender offer period from July 17 to August 15, 2025[1] - ST Zitian (300280) reported significant fluctuations on July 21, 2025[1] Market Alerts - Deepwater Regulation Institute (301038) reported severe abnormal fluctuations on July 24, 2025[1] - Guangsheng Tang (300436) announced significant market activity on July 17, 2025[1] - Huayin Power (600744) has been flagged for unusual trading patterns on July 15, 2025[1] Other Notable Stocks - Jiangnan Chemical (002226) reported trading activity on July 23, 2025[3] - China Electric Power Construction (601669) had a trading update on July 25, 2025[3] - Tibet Tourism (600749) reported significant trading activity on July 25, 2025[3]
2025Q2主动权益型基金季报点评:主动权益基金经理在关注哪些方向?
HWABAO SECURITIES· 2025-07-24 10:20
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2025Q2, the A-share market showed a volatile upward trend with significant structural differentiation and style rotation. The median return of active equity funds was 1.90%, outperforming major indices such as the CSI 300 and CSI 500. Nearly 70% of stocks in the whole market recorded positive returns [3]. - As of the end of Q2 2025, the total scale of active equity funds was 3.29 trillion yuan, a decrease of 0.04 trillion yuan from the previous quarter. In Q1 2025, there was a net outflow of 113.407 billion yuan from active equity funds [6]. - Different - style and theme fund managers had diverse investment strategies and outlooks. For example, value - style fund managers focused on undervalued traditional assets and looked for opportunities in some consumer and cyclical sectors; growth - style fund managers concentrated on long - term growth companies and adopted a "boom - mining + balanced allocation" strategy [21][23]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Active Equity - Type Fund 2025 Second - Quarter Report Data Review 3.1.1 Performance Review - In Q2 2025, the A - share market was volatile. After a brief decline in early April due to US tariff policies, it stabilized from mid - April to mid - May and saw theme rotations since June. The Guozheng 2000 and ChiNext 50 recorded relatively high positive returns of 4.41% and 3.19% respectively. The median return of active equity funds was 1.90%, and the median stock price change was 5.39% [3]. 3.1.2 Scale and Fund Flow - As of the end of Q2 2025, the total scale of active equity funds was 3.29 trillion yuan, down from 3.33 trillion yuan in the previous quarter. In Q1 2025, there was a net outflow of 113.407 billion yuan from active equity funds. Funds with a fund - flow change ratio < - 1% accounted for 74.34%, while those with a net inflow ≥ 1% accounted for only 16.51% [6]. 3.1.3 Position Change - As of Q2 2025, the average stock position of active equity funds was 87.23%, with an average position change of 1.15%. The average active position change was 1.18%, and the average natural position change was - 0.04%. 39.57% of funds adjusted their active positions by 0 - 5%, and 33.76% adjusted by - 5% - 0 [9]. 3.1.4 Industry Allocation - The top five industries for increased holdings were communication, medicine, non - bank finance, banking, and national defense and military industry. The top five industries for reduced holdings were food and beverage, automobile, commerce and retail, power equipment and new energy, and machinery. Five industries had over - allocation reductions, and nine industries had under - allocation increases [12]. 3.1.5 Individual Stock Heavy - Holdings - The top ten heavy - holding stocks by market value included Tencent Holdings, CATL, Kweichow Moutai, etc. The top ten heavy - holding stocks by the number of holding funds included CATL, Tencent Holdings, Zijin Mining, etc. The stocks with the largest increase in market value of heavy - holdings included Zhongji Innolight, New H3C Semiconductor Technology, etc., while those with the largest decrease included BYD, Alibaba - W, etc. [15][16][18] 3.2 Second - Quarter Report Fund Manager Views Summary 3.2.1 Value Style - Since 2022, value - style funds have attracted more attention. In 2025, they faced headwinds. Many value - style fund managers believed that undervalued stocks were still worth buying. In terms of position structure, most did not significantly adjust their allocations and focused on traditional undervalued assets, while also looking for opportunities in some consumer and cyclical sectors [21]. 3.2.2 Growth Style - Affected by overseas uncertainties and domestic policies, the market was volatile. Growth - style fund managers adhered to selecting long - term growth companies and adopted a "boom - mining + balanced allocation" strategy. They focused on AI, innovation drugs, and some emerging consumption sectors [23]. 3.2.3 Balanced Style - Balanced - style fund managers selected stocks from multiple dimensions and controlled portfolio risks through diversification. In the context of increased market risk appetite, many reduced holdings in traditional industries and high - dividend consumer stocks and increased holdings in growth stocks and booming industries [25]. 3.2.4 Consumption Theme - Traditional consumption showed differentiation and repair. New consumption had structural opportunities, but the sustainability and space of consumption trends needed to be judged. Some fund managers made structural adjustments in traditional consumption and increased investment in new consumption [27]. 3.2.5 Medicine Theme - Innovation drugs became a consensus. Some fund managers also looked for investment targets with low growth this year, such as innovative medical devices, CXO, and pharmacies [29]. 3.2.6 TMT Theme - The AI industry chain developed rapidly. TMT - theme fund managers continued to focus on AI - related companies and also paid attention to other technology sectors such as robotics and semiconductors [31]. 3.2.7 High - End Manufacturing - The attention to the military industry increased. High - end manufacturing showed competitive advantages, and some fund managers expected the recovery of some electro - new energy sectors [33]. 3.2.8 Cycle Theme - Resource sectors had long - term investment logic. Dividend - type cycle assets had allocation significance, and banks were still the core of the dividend sector [35]. 3.2.9 Hong Kong Stock Theme - Most fund managers were relatively optimistic about Hong Kong stocks. Some adjusted their positions from crowded sectors to the technology sector with lower valuations and expected performance growth [37].
新股发行及今日交易提示-20250724
HWABAO SECURITIES· 2025-07-24 09:14
New Stock Issuance - Multiple companies are scheduled for new stock issuance on July 24, 2025, including *ST Zitian (300280) and ST Nanzhi (002305) [1] - Significant announcements were made for companies like Guosheng Tang (300436) and Huayin Power (600744) on July 17 and July 15, respectively [1] Trading Alerts - Companies such as Gaoguan Min Explosive (002827) and Zhongyan Dadi (003001) have recent trading alerts as of July 24, 2025 [1] - A total of 50 companies have been flagged for abnormal trading fluctuations, indicating potential market volatility [2] Market Trends - The report highlights a trend of increased market activity with numerous companies announcing significant changes in stock status [1] - The presence of multiple *ST (Special Treatment) companies suggests heightened scrutiny and potential risk for investors [1] Regulatory Compliance - Companies are required to disclose significant announcements to ensure transparency in trading activities [1] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring announcements to assess market conditions and investment risks [1]
新股发行及今日交易提示-20250723
HWABAO SECURITIES· 2025-07-23 09:32
New Stock Listings - Tech Source Group issued shares at a price of 10.88 CNY[1] - Shanda Power issued shares at a price of 14.66 CNY[1] Market Alerts - ST Zitian reported an equity date on July 21, 2025, with a link to the announcement[1] - Guangshengtang experienced severe abnormal fluctuations, with an announcement on July 17, 2025[1] - Huayin Power had an announcement on July 15, 2025, regarding market conditions[1] - Multiple companies including Shangwei New Materials, China Power Construction, and Jiangnan Chemical had announcements on July 23, 2025, regarding market activities[1] Abnormal Fluctuations - Companies such as ST Weier and ST Huadong reported significant fluctuations with announcements on July 21, 2025[2] - ST Jinyi and ST Yundong also reported abnormal fluctuations with announcements on July 17, 2025[2]
ETF及指数产品网格策略周报-20250722
HWABAO SECURITIES· 2025-07-22 13:01
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report emphasizes the grid trading strategy as a method to profit from price fluctuations without predicting market trends, making it suitable for volatile markets [4][13] - The report identifies key characteristics for suitable grid trading targets, including low trading costs, good liquidity, and significant volatility, suggesting that equity ETFs are appropriate for this strategy [4][13] Group 2 - The report highlights specific ETFs for grid trading, starting with the Asia-Pacific Selected ETF (159687.SZ), which tracks the FTSE Russell Asia Low Carbon Selected Index and covers major companies in sectors like semiconductors and internet [4][14] - The New Economy ETF (159822.SZ) is noted for capturing new growth drivers in China's economy, holding leading companies across various high-growth sectors such as AI and biotechnology [5][18] - The Germany ETF (159561.SZ) tracks the DAX index, benefiting from Germany's economic stimulus policies, with a focus on high-end manufacturing and technology sectors [6][20] - The Sci-Tech Chip ETF (588200.SH) is highlighted for its potential driven by domestic substitution and AI computing demand, with significant growth expected in AI-related device shipments [7][21]
公募基金量化遴选类策略指数跟踪周报(2025.07.20):市场情绪回暖风偏提升,股基增强策略指数持续新高-20250722
HWABAO SECURITIES· 2025-07-22 12:08
Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The A-share equity market continues to be strong, while the US equity market shows a high-level consolidation trend. The dividend low-volatility strategy index remains stable, and the equity fund enhancement strategy index shows high elasticity [4]. - The recommended order of quantitative strategy allocation is: equity fund enhancement strategy > evergreen low-volatility strategy > overseas equity strategy [5]. - The report is relatively optimistic about the A-share market. The equity fund enhancement portfolio may have more room, and the evergreen low-volatility strategy can be used as a base allocation. The overseas market has short-term high-level correction risks, but long-term investment value remains [5][6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Toolized Fund Portfolio Performance Tracking - **Evergreen Low-Volatility Fund Portfolio**: It has maintained low volatility characteristics, with significantly better volatility and maximum drawdown than the CSI Active Equity Fund Index. Since the strategy started on July 31, 2023, it has achieved significant excess returns and has both defensive and offensive capabilities [15]. - **Equity Fund Enhancement Fund Portfolio**: The strategy has been running for a short time, and its performance is close to the CSI Active Equity Fund Index. It is expected to have stronger elasticity after the market environment improves [18]. - **Cash Enhancement Fund Portfolio**: After double screening, it continuously outperforms the benchmark. Since the strategy started at the end of July 2023, the excess return has been continuously accumulated, providing a reference for cash management [19]. - **Overseas Equity Allocation Fund Portfolio**: Since July 31, 2023, it has accumulated high excess returns, and global allocation can increase the returns of the equity investment portfolio [23]. 3.2 Toolized Fund Portfolio Construction Ideas - **Evergreen Low-Volatility Fund Portfolio**: The goal is to select funds with long-term stable returns from high-equity position actively managed funds. By adding restrictions on fund valuation levels, a low-volatility active equity fund portfolio is constructed [28]. - **Equity Fund Enhancement Fund Portfolio**: The goal is to meet the needs of equity fund investors with different risk preferences. It configures funds managed by fund managers with strong Alpha mining capabilities, and the portfolio shows excellent holding-period win rates [29]. - **Cash Enhancement Fund Portfolio**: A money fund selection system is constructed by comprehensively considering various money fund factors to help investors obtain higher returns and reduce return volatility risks [30]. - **Overseas Equity Allocation Fund Portfolio**: Based on overseas equity market indices, it selects QDII funds corresponding to indices with good upward momentum to construct a portfolio, providing an auxiliary tool for global investment [31].
新股发行及今日交易提示-20250722
HWABAO SECURITIES· 2025-07-22 08:03
New Stock Issuance - New stock issued by Dingjia Precision at a price of 11.16 on July 22, 2025[1] - ST Kelly's tender offer period is from July 17 to August 15, 2025[1] - ST Zitian and other companies have also announced new stock issuances[1] Market Alerts - Significant abnormal fluctuations reported for several stocks including Guangshengtang and Huayin Power[1] - Multiple companies have disclosed announcements regarding stock performance and market activities[1] - The report includes links to detailed announcements for various stocks, indicating ongoing market monitoring[1]