Investment Rating - The report assigns a **Buy** rating to Shandong Publishing with a target price of **15.60 RMB** based on a 2025 P/E multiple of 15x [3][109] Core Views - Shandong Publishing is a leading publishing and distribution company in Shandong Province, with a core focus on textbook and supplementary materials, while actively exploring diversified business layouts [2][3] - The company has a complete industry chain covering publishing, distribution, printing, and material trade, with innovative businesses such as digital publishing, study tourism, smart education, and media integration [2][32] - From 2019 to 2023, the company's revenue grew from **9.767 billion RMB** to **12.154 billion RMB**, with a CAGR of **5.62%**, while net profit attributable to shareholders increased from **1.544 billion RMB** to **2.376 billion RMB**, with a CAGR of **11.37%** [2][40] Business Performance Textbook and Supplementary Materials - The textbook and supplementary materials business has shown steady growth, with publishing revenue CAGR of **10.55%** and distribution revenue CAGR of **7.18%** from 2019 to 2023 [2][75] - The student population in Shandong Province is stable, with **101 million** permanent residents in 2023, ranking second in China, which supports the growth of the textbook business [2][52] - The proportion of middle and high school students in the K12 population increased from **41.1%** in 2016 to **43.6%** in 2022, which is expected to drive demand for supplementary materials [2][54] General Books - The general book market has been relatively weak, with a CAGR of **-2.8%** from 2019 to 2023, but the company's general book publishing and distribution business grew at a CAGR of **3.45%** during the same period [2][88] - In 2023, the company's market share in book retail was **1.39%**, and it has been actively promoting online sales through digital transformation [2][116] New Business Layouts - The study tourism business grew rapidly, with revenue increasing by over **60%** in the first half of 2024 [2][119] - The company is developing smart education projects, such as the "Homework + Learning Diagnosis Big Data Feedback" project, which integrates textbook publishing with big data technology [2][123] - The company is also exploring new service scenarios in bookstores, such as "Senior Citizen University" and "Xinhua Study Room" [97][126] Financial Performance - From 2019 to 2023, the company's gross margin remained stable at **36%-39%**, while the net margin increased from **15.8%** to **19.5%** [68][70] - The company has consistently increased cash dividends, with the dividend payout ratio rising from **43.25%** in 2019 to **49.19%** in 2023 [45][73] Future Outlook - The company is expected to achieve net profits of **1.957 billion RMB**, **2.177 billion RMB**, and **2.314 billion RMB** in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with EPS of **0.94 RMB**, **1.04 RMB**, and **1.11 RMB** [3][25] - Revenue is projected to grow at a CAGR of **6.9%**, **4.3%**, and **4.2%** from 2024 to 2026, with gross margins remaining stable at around **37.6%-37.8%** [106][108]

孙怡萱 sunyixuan@orientsec.com.cn | --- | --- | |----------------------------|------------| | | | | | | | 居民购房更加关注实得面积 | 2024-12-23 | | 中央经济工作会议强调稳楼市 | 2024-12-17 | | 上海政策效果持续性强 | 2024-12-10 | 房地产行业 行业研究 | 行业周报 核心观点 ⚫ 第 52周房地产板块指数弱于沪深 300 指数，弱于创业板指。房地产板块较沪深 300 指数相对收益为-4.9%。沪深 300 指数报收 3981.03，周度涨幅为 1.4%；创业板指 数报收 2204.90，周度涨幅-0.2%；房地产指数（申万）报收 2225.78，周度涨幅为 -3.5%。 ⚫ 中央政策方面。全国住房城乡建设工作会议提出 2025 年要大力实施城市更新谋划 实施一批城市更新改造项目。地方政策方面。桂林、淮南市、北海市等对住房公积 金政策进行了优化，包括取消异地购房提取限制、提高租房提取额度、降低首付比 例等；襄阳市、成都双流区等提供了购房补贴；太原市出台措施规范房地产 ...

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乘联会预估 12 月行业销量同环比继续增 长，问界 M9 大定突破 20 万辆 核心观点 ⚫ 投资建议与投资标的 从投资策略上看，近期较多车企及重点新能源车型销量表现亮眼，预计后续汽车以旧换 新政策对车市的拉动效果将持续释放；2025 年具备竞争力的自主品牌及在智驾技术方面 领先的新势力企业将继续扩大市场份额；预计部分央国企通过自身改革及加强对外合作 等，实现困境反转。建议持续关注部分汽车行业央国企及华为产业链、小米产业链、T 链、智驾产业链及机器人产业链公司。 建议关注：上汽集团、江淮汽车、比亚迪、长安汽车、中国重汽、广汽集团、宇通客 车；新泉股份、银轮股份、岱美股份、拓普集团、经纬恒润、爱柯迪、保隆科技、精锻 科技、贝斯特、瑞鹄模具、上声电子、双林股份、华阳集团、华域汽车、伯特利、德赛 西威、科博达、星宇股份、三花智控、继峰股份、上海沿浦、福耀玻璃等。 宏观经济下行影响汽车需求、上游原材料价格波动影响、车企价格战压力。 | --- | --- | |--------------|-------------------------------| | | | | | 中性 （维持） | | 国家 / 地区 | ...

400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 2012/022012/062012/102013/032013/072013/112014/042014/082014/122015/052015/092016/022016/062016/102017/032017/072017/112018/042018/082018/122019/052019/092020/022020/062020/102021/032021/072021/112022/042022/082022/122023/052023/092024/022024/062024/10 造纸及纸制品业:产成品存货（亿元） 机制纸及纸板制造:产成品存货（万吨）（右轴） ⚫ 宏观经济增速放缓、终端需求下滑幅度超预期的风险：若欧美或国内宏观经济增速发生较大 波动，则木浆需求将受到较大影响，木浆价格具备下跌风险；若终端需求下滑幅度超预期， 则成品纸价也将存在下跌风险，造纸企业盈利存在大幅波动的风险。 Tabl e_Disclai mer 分析师申明 买 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the computer industry, indicating optimism about future growth prospects [41]. Core Insights - The computer industry is experiencing a rebound in sentiment, with the AI application landscape showing strong user growth and commercial viability. The report highlights that AI applications are becoming essential for users, particularly in practical scenarios, and that the commercialization of AI is accelerating in both domestic and international markets [67][23]. - The demand for AI computing power is robust, driving the need for domestic alternatives in AI chips and EDA software, especially in light of increasing restrictions from the U.S. on China's access to advanced computing capabilities [67][19]. - The report emphasizes the importance of self-sufficiency in technology, particularly in the context of ongoing geopolitical tensions, and notes that the development of the HarmonyOS ecosystem is gaining momentum [67][19]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Overview and Future Outlook - The computer industry index has shown volatility in 2024, with a significant rebound following a downturn in Q1. The overall sentiment in the industry is improving due to macroeconomic policy adjustments [53][67]. - The report notes that the computer sector's revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 reached 784.17 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.6%, while net profit saw a significant decline of 50% [54][67]. 2. AI Product Usage and Commercialization - Global AI product usage continues to rise, with significant performance from U.S. AI application companies. The report highlights that practical tools and vertical applications are becoming essential for users, driving the acceleration of commercialization [60][67]. - The report identifies that AI Agents are emerging as a new wave of technology with substantial potential for monetization, gaining traction in both consumer and business markets [67][10]. 3. AI Computing Power and Domestic Alternatives - The demand for AI computing power remains strong, with ongoing investments in intelligent computing centers across China. The report indicates that over 250 intelligent computing centers are currently established or under construction [26][67]. - The report discusses the challenges and opportunities in the EDA sector, noting that domestic companies are accelerating their development efforts in response to U.S. export controls [67][19]. 4. Self-Sufficiency and Ecosystem Development - The report emphasizes the trend towards self-sufficiency in technology, particularly in response to U.S. sanctions. The development of the HarmonyOS ecosystem is highlighted as a significant advancement, with a growing number of devices and applications [67][19]. - The report suggests that companies involved in the domestic software and hardware ecosystem are likely to benefit from these trends, particularly in the context of national support for self-reliance in technology [67][19].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 1721.90 CNY per share [27][31]. Core Insights - The company is expected to increase the supply of its 1000ml Moutai liquor, reinforcing its position as a key product in its portfolio. The sales volume for Moutai liquor is projected to see a slight increase in 2025 [24]. - The company aims for a sales growth rate of no less than 15% for its Moutai sauce-flavored liquor in 2025, with a significant increase in marketing expenses to strengthen brand recognition [24]. - The company is likely to benefit from macroeconomic policies aimed at boosting domestic demand, with a current valuation at a low point and a generous dividend yield of 3.3%, providing a strong margin of safety for investors [24]. Financial Projections - The forecasted earnings per share (EPS) for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 67.48 CNY, 73.25 CNY, and 81.50 CNY respectively, reflecting a slight downward adjustment from previous estimates [25][31]. - The company's revenue for 2024 is projected at 170,836 million CNY, with a year-on-year growth rate of 15.7% [26]. - The company's operating profit for 2024 is expected to be 116,708 million CNY, with a growth rate of 12.5% [26]. Valuation Metrics - The company's weighted average cost of capital (WACC) is calculated to be 10.00% [31]. - The estimated enterprise value is 2,106,192 million CNY, with an equity value of 2,163,046 million CNY [2].

| --- | --- | |--------|-------------------------------| | | | | 李雪君 | 021-63325888*6069 | | | lixuejun@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号： S0860517020001 | | | 香港证监会牌照： BSW124 | | 谢雨辰 | xieyuchen@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号： S0860524090001 | 1.1 二级市场表现： 2024 年轻工制造板块表现弱于大盘，造纸、家居细分板块龙头表现相 对较好................................................................................................................................5 1.2 行业基本面回顾：需求相对疲软，基本面表现前高后低...............................................6 3 地产后周期产业链：以旧换新补 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 33.24 HKD for 2025 [8][18]. Core Insights - The company is a global small molecule innovative pharmaceutical enterprise, established in 2000, focusing on oncology with three commercialized products and several late-stage clinical drugs. It has achieved a revenue CAGR of 23.1% from 2017 to 2023 and recorded its first profit of 101 million USD in 2023 [17][59]. - The company is expanding its innovative products into international markets, with significant progress in the commercialization of its drugs, particularly focusing on the colorectal cancer indication for Furquintinib and the EGFR-TKI resistant market for Savolitinib [17][63]. Financial Summary - The company’s revenue for 2023 is projected at 426.41 million USD, with a year-on-year growth of 96.52%. The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 100.78 million USD, marking a 127.93% increase [7]. - Forecasted revenues for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 680.01 million USD, 844.08 million USD, and 1000.34 million USD, respectively, with corresponding growth rates of -18.85%, 24.13%, and 18.51% [7][18]. Product Pipeline and Market Strategy - The company has a robust pipeline with several products in various stages of development. Furquintinib is being marketed for gastrointestinal tumors and has recently been launched in major markets including the US, EU, and Japan. Savolitinib targets the EGFR-TKI resistant market and is expected to submit an NDA in the US soon [17][40][63]. - The company is also focusing on autoimmune diseases and hematological malignancies, with innovative products like Syk inhibitor Sogrolimab and IDH1/2 dual inhibitors for AML [17][60]. Management and Corporate Structure - The company is backed by a stable management team with extensive experience in drug discovery, development, and commercialization. The largest shareholder is Cheung Kong Holdings, holding 38.16% of the shares [54][56].

宏观经济 | 动态跟踪 鹰派联储风险定价更进一步 研究结论 风险提示 美国经济硬着陆风险。再通胀风险。假设条件变化影响测算结果的风险。 | --- | --- | --- | |----------------------------------------------|-------|------------| | | | | | | | | | 烧灯续昼： 2025 年海外宏观展望 | | 2024-12-19 | | 强美元步入间歇窗口期：——海外宏观札 记 1209 | | 2024-12-10 | | 紧缩交易压力加码：——海外宏观札记 1118 | | 2024-11-20 | | 大选交易惯性运行：——海外宏观札记 1111 | | 2024-11-18 | 宏观经济 | 动态跟踪 —— 鹰派联储风险定价更进一步 市场表现（20241215-202412022） 油价格波动延续。黄金价格维持震荡。比特币价格波动加剧。 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------------------|-------|----------|--------| | | WTD | 近 ...