业绩高增，扩表提速 ——杭州银行 2024 年年报点评 核心观点 ⚫ 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 结合财报数据，适度上调规模增速、不良生成等假设，预测公司 25/26/27 年归母净 利润同比增速为 16.5%/15.1%/15.7%，BVPS 为 19.87/22.75/26.09 元（25/26 年前 预测值 20.26/23.25 元）。相比可比公司维持 20%估值溢价，对应 25 年 0.83 倍 PB，目标价 16.48 元/股，维持"买入"评级。 风险提示 经济复苏不及预期；信贷需求不及预期；资产质量恶化。 资料来源：公司数据. 东方证券研究所预测. 每股收益使用最新股本全面摊薄计算. 杭州银行 600926.SH 公司研究 | 年报点评 | | 买入（维持） | | --- | --- | | 股价（2025年04月11日） | 14.43 元 | | 目标价格 | 16.48 元 | | 52 周最高价/最低价 | 15.06/10.61 元 | | 总股本/流通 A 股（万股） | 631,236/580,828 | | A 股市值（百万元） | 91,087 | | 国家/地区 | 中国 | ...

业绩超预期，分红创新高 ——久立特材 2024 年报点评 核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 由于公司高端产品持续发力，无缝管、管件等产品毛利率超预期，我们预测公司 2025-2027 年每股收益为 1.75、1.93 和 2.14 元（原 2025-2026 年每股收益的预测值 为 1.67、1.84 元）。以 DCF 法进行估值，目标价 32.04 元，维持买入评级。 风险提示 下募投项目进度不及预期风险、产品升级不及预期风险、宏观经济增速放缓、能源价格 大幅波动风险。 公司主要财务信息 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 8,568 | 10,918 | 13,106 | 13,729 | 14,554 | | 同比增长 (%) | 31.1% | 27.4% | 20.0% | 4.8% | 6.0% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 1,734 | 1,813 | 2,036 | 2,239 | 2,491 | | 同比增长 (%) | 24.8% ...

核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 根据 24 年年报调整营收增速、毛利率和费用率，下调 25、26 年归母净利润为 5.84、7.69 亿元（前值为 8.44、10.41 亿元），新增 27 年归母净利润为 9.62 亿元， 参考可比公司 25 年 67 倍 PE，给予目标价 65.66 元，维持买入评级。 风险提示：下游需求不及预期；终端射频芯片业务开拓进度不及预期。 公司主要财务信息 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 3,567 | 2,591 | 3,352 | 4,321 | 5,386 | | 同比增长 (%) | 3.1% | -27.4% | 29.4% | 28.9% | 24.6% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 654 | 514 | 621 | 817 | 1,021 | | 同比增长 (%) | 17.3% | -21.4% | 20.8% | 31.6% | 25.0% | | 归属母公司净利润(百万元) | 606 | 485 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Hangzhou Bank with a target price of 16.48 CNY per share, reflecting a 20% valuation premium compared to comparable companies [3][6]. Core Insights - The report predicts a steady growth in net profit for Hangzhou Bank, with expected year-on-year growth rates of 16.5%, 15.1%, and 15.7% for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively. The book value per share (BVPS) is projected to be 19.87, 22.75, and 26.09 CNY for the same years [3][10]. - The bank's revenue and profit growth rates are positioned within the top tier of the industry, with a notable increase in net interest income and non-interest income contributing to overall performance [10]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue**: The bank's revenue is projected to grow from 35,016 million CNY in 2023 to 46,845 million CNY by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 8.2% [5][13]. - **Net Profit**: The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to rise from 14,383 million CNY in 2023 to 26,354 million CNY in 2027, reflecting a CAGR of about 15.7% [5][13]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: EPS is forecasted to increase from 2.31 CNY in 2023 to 4.17 CNY in 2027 [5][13]. - **Return on Assets (ROA)**: The bank's ROA is expected to stabilize around 0.9% from 2025 to 2027 [5][13]. - **Return on Equity (ROE)**: The average ROE is projected to improve from 15.6% in 2023 to 17.1% in 2027 [5][13]. Asset and Liability Management - **Loan Growth**: Total loans are expected to increase significantly, from 807,096 million CNY in 2023 to 1,401,129 million CNY by 2027, indicating a strong demand for credit [13]. - **Deposit Growth**: Total deposits are projected to grow from 1,058,308 million CNY in 2023 to 2,030,151 million CNY in 2027, reflecting a robust deposit base [13]. - **Asset Quality**: The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio is expected to remain stable at 0.76% over the forecast period, indicating effective asset quality management [10][13]. Valuation Metrics - **Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratio**: The P/E ratio is projected to decrease from 6.25 in 2023 to 3.46 in 2027, suggesting an attractive valuation relative to earnings growth [5][13]. - **Price-to-Book (P/B) Ratio**: The P/B ratio is expected to decline from 0.92 in 2023 to 0.55 in 2027, indicating potential undervaluation [5][13].

业绩超预期，分红创新高 ——久立特材 2024 年报点评 核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 由于公司高端产品持续发力，无缝管、管件等产品毛利率超预期，我们预测公司 2025-2027 年每股收益为 1.75、1.93 和 2.14 元（原 2025-2026 年每股收益的预测值 为 1.67、1.84 元）。以 DCF 法进行估值，目标价 32.04 元，维持买入评级。 风险提示 下募投项目进度不及预期风险、产品升级不及预期风险、宏观经济增速放缓、能源价格 大幅波动风险。 公司主要财务信息 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 8,568 | 10,918 | 13,106 | 13,729 | 14,554 | | 同比增长 (%) | 31.1% | 27.4% | 20.0% | 4.8% | 6.0% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 1,734 | 1,813 | 2,036 | 2,239 | 2,491 | | 同比增长 (%) | 24.8% ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a neutral investment rating for the automotive and parts industry [5] Core Insights - The automotive market is benefiting from policies supporting vehicle scrappage and replacement, as well as advancements in intelligent driving technology, leading to strong growth in both overall and new energy vehicle sales [12][30] - The new tariff policies announced by Trump are expected to benefit companies that establish factories in North America, particularly those in the parts sector [13] - The report suggests continued focus on humanoid robotics and competitive domestic brands in the automotive sector, with expectations for market share expansion among leading new energy vehicle companies [3][14] Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations and Targets - The report recommends focusing on humanoid robotics and companies within the Huawei, Xiaomi, T chain, and intelligent driving sectors, anticipating profit and valuation increases [3][14] - Suggested companies for investment include SAIC Motor, JAC Motors, BYD, Changan Automobile, China National Heavy Duty Truck Group, GAC Group, Yutong Bus, and several parts manufacturers such as Newquay, Silver Wheel, and Top Group [3][15] Market Performance - The automotive sector's performance this week showed a decline of 5.4%, underperforming compared to the CSI 300 index, which fell by 2.9% [16] - The parts sector experienced a significant drop of 8.30%, while the automotive sales and service sector fell by 8.73% [16] Sales Tracking - In March, the wholesale sales of narrow-sense passenger vehicles reached 2.412 million units, a year-on-year increase of 8.9% and a month-on-month increase of 36.4% [12][24] - New energy passenger vehicle sales in March were particularly strong, with wholesale sales of 1.128 million units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 35.5% [28][30] Industry News - The report highlights the launch of new models such as the BYD Han L and BYD Tang L, which are expected to enhance sales performance [33][34] - The report also notes the anticipated performance of companies like Changan Automobile and BYD in the upcoming quarters, with significant profit growth expected [39][42]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 65.66 CNY, based on a projected PE of 67 times for 2025 [2][4]. Core Views - The company experienced a revenue decline in 2024, with total revenue of 2.591 billion CNY, down 27.36% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 485 million CNY, down 20.06% [8]. - Despite the revenue drop, the company's gross margin improved to 38.59%, up 6.31 percentage points, indicating enhanced profitability [8]. - The company is focusing on expanding into new fields, particularly in military and civilian applications, positioning itself as a leader in T/R components and benefiting from advancements in military information technology [8]. Financial Summary - **Revenue Forecasts**: - 2023: 3,567 million CNY - 2024: 2,591 million CNY (down 27.4%) - 2025: 3,352 million CNY (up 29.4%) - 2026: 4,321 million CNY (up 28.9%) - 2027: 5,386 million CNY (up 24.6%) [3] - **Net Profit Forecasts**: - 2023: 606 million CNY - 2024: 485 million CNY (down 20.1%) - 2025: 584 million CNY (up 20.6%) - 2026: 769 million CNY (up 31.6%) - 2027: 962 million CNY (up 25.1%) [3] - **Key Financial Ratios**: - Gross Margin: - 2023: 32.3% - 2024: 38.6% - 2025: 34.7% - 2026: 32.9% - 2027: 31.6% [3] - Net Margin: - 2023: 17.0% - 2024: 18.7% - 2025: 17.4% - 2026: 17.8% - 2027: 17.9% [3] - **Earnings Per Share**: - 2023: 1.02 CNY - 2024: 0.81 CNY - 2025: 0.98 CNY - 2026: 1.29 CNY - 2027: 1.61 CNY [3]

| ESG 建设提速，机遇与挑战并存：—— | 2024-12-25 | | --- | --- | | 2025 年度 ESG 展望 | | | 谷歌推出全木结构办公室，国泰航空等推 | 2024-12-14 | | 动香港应用可持续航空燃料：——ESG 企 | | | 业动态双周报第二十二期 | | | 赋能绿色金融深化发展，基于 ESG 评分等 | 2024-12-14 | | 探索创新金融产品：——东方证券 ESG 双 | | | 周报第六十一期 | | 财政部成功发行首笔人民币绿色主权债券 ——ESG 企业动态双周报第二十九期 卷首语 ⚫ 2023 年 12 月 21 日，中证协国际合作专业委员会全体会议中强调，在党中央扩大高 水平对外开放的部署下，如何帮助中国优秀企业走出去，吸引国际长期资金投资中 国，是证券公司跨境展业需要探讨的课题和工作重点，证券公司应重视推进国际传 播能力建设，讲好中国故事，传播好中国声音，提升国际投资者对中国的信心。 ESG 是全球企业的通用标准，与高质量发展在内核方面有着重要的一致性。ESG 对 于中国优秀企业来说，是其提升竞争力和可持续发展的重要驱动力，与其发展目标 相 ...

汽车与零部件行业 行业研究 | 行业周报 特朗普关税政策下在北美建厂公司将受 益，继续关注华为链 ——汽车行业周报（0407-0413） 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 从投资策略上看，继续关注人形机器人链汽零投资机会，相关公司有望盈利和估值双 升；2025 年具备竞争力的自主品牌及在智驾技术方面领先的新势力企业将继续扩大市场 份额；预计部分央国企通过自身改革及加强对外合作等，实现困境反转。建议持续关注 部分汽车行业央国企及人形机器人链、华为产业链、小米产业链、T 链、智驾产业链公 司。 建议关注：上汽集团、江淮汽车、比亚迪、长安汽车、中国重汽、广汽集团、宇通客 车；新泉股份、银轮股份、岱美股份、拓普集团、经纬恒润、爱柯迪、保隆科技、精锻 科技、贝斯特、瑞鹄模具、上声电子、双林股份、华阳集团、华域汽车、伯特利、德赛 西威、科博达、星宇股份、三花智控、继峰股份、上海沿浦、福耀玻璃、浙江荣泰等。 风险提示 宏观经济下行影响汽车需求、上游原材料价格波动影响、车企价格战压力。 国家/地区 中国 行业 汽车与零部件行业 报告发布日期 2025 年 04 月 13 日 中性（维持） | 姜雪晴 | jiangxueqing ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3][7]. Core Views - The company has exceeded dividend expectations, indicating potential for sustainable growth in the future [1]. - The revenue for 2024 is projected to be 24.01 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.4%, with a net profit of 3.84 billion yuan, up 20% year-on-year [6]. - The company is expanding its production capacity with new factories in Vietnam and Indonesia, which are expected to enhance operational efficiency [6]. Financial Forecasts and Investment Recommendations - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2027 are forecasted to be 3.71, 4.22, and 4.83 yuan respectively, with a target price of 66.51 yuan based on an 18x PE valuation for 2025 [2][7]. - The company’s revenue is expected to grow from 20.11 billion yuan in 2023 to 35.46 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 12.6% [2][10]. - The gross profit margin is projected to remain stable, with slight fluctuations, indicating consistent profitability [2][10]. Key Financial Metrics - The company’s operating profit for 2024 is expected to be 4.97 billion yuan, with a net profit margin of 16% [6][10]. - The return on equity (ROE) is projected to decline slightly from 22.6% in 2023 to 19.1% in 2027, reflecting a stable but slightly decreasing profitability trend [10]. - The company’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to decrease from 20.5 in 2023 to 11.6 in 2027, indicating potential undervaluation as earnings grow [10].