2025 年 12 月 11 日 晨会速递 分析师点评 市场数据 总量研究 【宏观】CPI 涨势能否延续？——2025 年 11 月价格数据点评 11 月 CPI 同比涨幅扩大，主因低基数效应下，鲜菜价格超季节性上涨；核心 CPI 同 比增速走平，其中金价上涨影响继续扩大，但"以旧换新"对耐用品价格支撑减弱， 节后出行需求回落导致服务价格涨势放缓。PPI 环比继续上涨，但受上年基数影响， 同比降幅略有扩大。结构来看，上游煤炭和有色价格领涨，中游设备制造价格有所好 转，下游消费制造价格企稳，"反内卷"效果持续显现。 行业研究 【医药】医保和商保目录并轨，扩容与提质并重，支持创新药高质量发展——2025 年版医保目录调整政策点评(增持) | | A 股市场 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 收盘 | 涨跌% | | 上证综指 | 3900.5 | -0.23 | | 沪深 300 | 4591.83 | -0.14 | | 深证成指 | 13316.42 | 0.29 | | 中小板指 | 8030.8 | 0.31 | | 创业板指 | 3209 | -0.02 | | | 股指期货 | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Add" for the non-ferrous metals sector [5] Core Views - The report highlights a continuous increase in the prices of praseodymium and neodymium oxide, as well as electrolytic cobalt, indicating a positive trend in the metal new materials sector [1][4] - The report suggests focusing on companies with cost advantages and resource expansion potential in the lithium mining sector, as lithium prices have reached approximately 92,000 yuan per ton [4] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring price ratios between electrolytic cobalt and cobalt powder, as well as between electrolytic cobalt and cobalt sulfate, to gauge the relative health of the military and new energy vehicle sectors [10][11] Summary by Sections Military New Materials - The price of electrolytic cobalt is reported at 408,000 yuan per ton, with a week-on-week increase of 2.0% [1] - The price ratio of electrolytic cobalt to cobalt powder is 0.78, up by 1.5% week-on-week, while the ratio to cobalt sulfate is 4.44, up by 1.2% [11] - Carbon fiber prices remain stable at 83.8 yuan per kilogram, with a gross profit of -9.53 yuan per kilogram [1][22] New Energy Vehicle Materials - The price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide is reported at 582.72 yuan per kilogram, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 2.8% [1] - The prices of battery-grade lithium hydroxide and lithium iron phosphate are reported at 82,400 yuan per ton and 39,100 yuan per ton, respectively, with slight changes [1][39] - The report notes that the production of new energy vehicles reached 1.7718 million units in October 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 21.1% [24] Photovoltaic New Materials - The price of EVA has decreased to 9,900 yuan per ton, marking a 2.0% decline and remaining at a low level since 2013 [2] - The price of photovoltaic-grade polysilicon is stable at 6.50 USD per kilogram [2] Other Materials - The report indicates that the price of platinum has increased by 2.9%, while rhodium has decreased by 3.4% [3] - The price of high-purity gallium and indium remains stable, while silicon carbide has seen a significant drop of 6.9% [3]

Group 1: CPI Analysis - In November 2025, the CPI increased by 0.7% year-on-year, up from 0.2% in the previous month, aligning with market expectations[2] - The main driver for the CPI increase was the turnaround in food prices, particularly fresh vegetable prices, which rose by 14.5% year-on-year, compared to a decline of 7.3% in the previous month[4][5] - Core CPI remained stable at 1.2% year-on-year, with gold prices contributing significantly to this stability, while service prices showed a slowdown due to seasonal demand[6] Group 2: PPI Analysis - The PPI decreased by 2.2% year-on-year in November, slightly worse than the previous month's decline of 2.1%, primarily due to a high base effect from the previous year[8] - PPI showed a month-on-month increase of 0.1%, marking the second consecutive month of growth, driven by rising prices in the coal and non-ferrous metal sectors[8][9] - The "anti-involution" effect is evident as downstream consumer goods prices stabilize, while upstream coal and metal prices continue to rise[11] Group 3: Future Outlook - The CPI is expected to maintain its upward trend in December, supported by low base effects and rising food prices, with a projected average CPI growth rate of 0.7% for the coming year[10] - The PPI's year-on-year decline is anticipated to narrow, influenced by global manufacturing recovery and domestic supply-demand adjustments, although the timing for a return to positive growth remains uncertain[11] - The recovery of domestic demand and the potential for a rebound in pork prices are critical factors that could influence CPI trends in the upcoming months[10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry [1] Core Insights - The 2025 National Medical Insurance Directory has been adjusted, increasing the total number of drugs from 3,159 to 3,253, with a notable success rate of 88% for negotiations, the highest in seven years [3][4] - The first version of the Commercial Health Insurance Innovative Drug Directory includes 19 drugs, with a success rate of 79% for price negotiations, highlighting a focus on innovative treatments for critical diseases [3][5] - The adjustment emphasizes both expansion and quality improvement of the medical insurance directory, with a high renewal rate of 75% for drugs under negotiation [4] Summary by Sections Medical Insurance Directory Adjustments - The new directory includes 114 new drugs, with 29 drugs removed due to replacement or long-term supply issues [4] - A total of 535 drugs underwent formal review, with a pass rate of 41.48% for those outside the directory [4] Commercial Health Insurance Directory - The first version of the directory includes 24 drugs, focusing on high-value drugs not covered by basic insurance but with significant clinical value [5][29] - The directory supports "true innovation" and "differentiated innovation," encouraging the inclusion of innovative drugs in both basic and commercial insurance [5] Drug Categories and Success Rates - The newly added drugs primarily target cancer, infectious diseases, chronic diseases, and rare diseases, with 50 classified as first-class new drugs [3][15] - The success rate for negotiations of drugs outside the directory has significantly improved, indicating a more favorable environment for innovative drug development [6][21]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a target price of 804.64 HKD, indicating a strong potential for growth in the coming years [5][7][15]. Core Insights - The company, Laopu Gold, is a pioneer and leader in the ancient gold concept in China, focusing on high-end products and continuously achieving record-breaking performance due to rising gold prices and increasing consumer demand for gold as a store of value [1][23]. - The market for ancient gold is experiencing significant growth, with its market share expected to rise from 30% in 2023 to 52% by 2028, reflecting a shift in consumer preferences towards younger demographics and fashion-oriented gold products [2][13]. - Laopu Gold differentiates itself through unique product designs and craftsmanship, leading to higher profit margins compared to competitors, with a gross margin of 38.1% and a net margin of 18.4% in the first half of 2025 [3][39]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Laopu Gold is recognized as the first brand to promote ancient gold in China, establishing a strong brand presence and achieving high sales performance in premium markets [24][25]. - The founder, Xu Gaoming, has extensive experience in the industry and personally oversees product design, contributing to the brand's innovative edge [34]. Market Trends - The gold jewelry market is evolving, with a notable shift towards younger consumers who value design and emotional significance in their purchases, moving beyond traditional gifting occasions [2][13]. - The ancient gold segment is projected to grow significantly, with its market size expected to reach 421.4 billion RMB by 2028 [2][26]. Competitive Advantage - Laopu Gold's differentiation strategy allows it to avoid the intense competition faced by traditional gold brands, achieving a high overlap rate with luxury brands like LV and Cartier [3][39]. - The company maintains a robust brand moat due to its unique craftsmanship and high-end positioning, which competitors find difficult to replicate [3][39]. Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for Laopu Gold indicate substantial growth, with expected revenues of 267.44 billion RMB in 2025, 361.68 billion RMB in 2026, and 460.94 billion RMB in 2027, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 214.4%, 35.2%, and 27.4% respectively [5][6]. - The company's net profit is projected to reach 47.63 billion RMB in 2025, with a growth rate of 223.3% [5][6]. Growth Drivers - The company's growth is supported by both internal product innovation and external market expansion, including international market penetration [14][15]. - The online sales channel is expected to grow rapidly, with a projected increase of 490% in 2025, driven by younger consumers seeking convenient purchasing options [12][14].

2025 年 12 月 10 日 晨会速递 | | 商品市场 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 收盘 | 涨跌% | | SHFESHFE 黄金 | 951.54 | -0.75 | | SHFESHFE 燃油 | 2418 | -3.59 | | SHFESHFE 铜 | 91090 | -2.02 | | SHFESHFE 锌 | 23070 | -0.92 | | SHFESHFE 铝 | 21775 | -2.24 | | SHFESHFE 镍 | 117350 | -0.58 | | | 海外市场 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 收盘 | 涨跌% | | 恒生指数 | 25434.23 | -1.29 | | 国企指数 | 8936.41 | -1.62 | | 道琼斯 | 47560.29 | -0.38 | | 标普 500 | 6840.51 | -0.09 | | 纳斯达克 | 23576.49 | 0.13 | | 德国 DAX | 24153.30 | 0.45 | | 法国 CAC | 8052.51 | -0.69 | | 日经 225 ...

- The report does not contain any quantitative models or factors related to quantitative analysis[1][2][3]

2025 年 12 月 9 日 总量研究 积极有为，实现"十五五"良好开局 ——2025 年 12 月政治局会议精神学习 作者 要点 事件： 12 月 8 日，中共中央政治局召开会议，分析研究 2026 年经济工作。 核心观点： 12 月政治局会议对明年宏观政策和经济工作进行了提纲挈领的部署。具体来说， 相较于 2024 年 12 月政治局会议， 一是，在对当前形势的判断上，本次会议最大的变化在于认为当前重点领域风险化 解取得积极进展； 二是，对于明年经济目标，依然以内需作为首要任务，着力点落于"四稳"之上； 三是，对于明年政策基调，在延续更加积极的政策总基调之余，重提"跨周期"， 强调平衡短期经济刺激与长期结构性改革和政策可持续性的空间，注重提升前期已 落地政策的实质性效力； 四是，对于明年具体的工作任务，内需、创新、改革、开放依然是核心的主旋律， 风险化解的排序降至最后一位。 一、对当前整体形势的判断：重点领域风险化解取得积极进展 2025 年 12 月政治局会议，肯定了当前经济的向好势头，并就风险化解的进展做 出了积极定调。会议提出"经济社会发展主要目标将顺利实现"，并就当前经济几 方面的形势做出重要定 ...

Macro Analysis - In November 2025, China's exports increased by 5.9% year-on-year, primarily due to the fading high base effect and sustained overseas demand [1] - Looking ahead, December's export growth may face high base effects, but optimism remains for next year's overseas demand due to global fiscal expansion and improved China-US trade relations [1] Real Estate Industry - As of December 7, 2025, new home transactions in 20 cities totaled 720,000 units, a decrease of 13.9% year-on-year; Beijing saw 37,000 units (-19%), Shanghai 95,000 units (-5%), and Shenzhen 25,000 units (-33%) [2] - In the secondary housing market, transactions in 10 cities reached 711,000 units, an increase of 1.5% year-on-year; Beijing recorded 160,000 units (+1%), Shanghai 236,000 units (+8%), and Shenzhen 64,000 units (+9%) [2] Company Research - For Anjins Food (603345.SH), the forecasted net profit for 2025-2027 is 1.391 billion, 1.513 billion, and 1.672 billion yuan, translating to EPS of 4.17, 4.54, and 5.02 yuan, with current P/E ratios of 19, 18, and 16 times respectively [3] - The company's short-term operations are improving, with a gradual recovery in profitability expected as industry price competition eases; if the consumption environment improves next year, performance elasticity is anticipated [3] - New products and channel strategies are actively evolving, with expected positive outcomes in the future, maintaining a "buy" rating [3]

Export Data - In November 2025, China's exports reached $330.35 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 5.9%, significantly higher than the expected 3.0% and the previous month's decline of 1.1%[2][3][4] - The increase in exports is attributed to the fading high base effect and strong overseas demand, particularly in integrated circuits and automobiles, while the drag from labor-intensive products has lessened[3][4][14][16] Import Data - Imports in November 2025 totaled $218.67 billion, showing a year-on-year increase of 1.9%, up from 1.0% in October[2][18] - The rise in imports is driven by robust export-related intermediate goods demand and a low base effect from the previous year, with significant increases in copper and iron ore imports of 35.3% and 15.9%, respectively[18] Trade Balance - The trade surplus for November 2025 was $111.68 billion, an increase from the previous month's surplus of $90.07 billion[2] Regional Export Performance - Exports to the EU, Africa, and Latin America saw notable increases, with the EU experiencing a year-on-year growth of 14.8%[5][4] - In contrast, exports to the US declined by 28.6%, indicating ongoing challenges in US-China trade relations[5] Future Outlook - December's export growth may face challenges due to high base effects, but optimism remains for 2026 driven by global fiscal expansion and improved US-China trade relations[3][21] - The expected reduction in tariffs on certain products and potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve could further support China's exports to the US[21]