受惠 关税战降温 澳元上 https://www.takungpao.com/finance/236135/2025/0521/1088324.html 字号 自今年年初以来,澳元表现较为疲软。今年第一季度澳元兑美元基本于50天线约0.62至0. 64区间上落整固,与欧元英镑等欧洲货币相比缺乏明显上升动力,相信与其商品货币特质与3 税战相关性较大有关。 首页 > 财经 > 港股 > 正文 能言汇说/受惠关税战降温 澳元上望0.66 2025-05-21 05:01:51 大公报 不过，澳元自今年4月9日以来则迎来一轮新的上升趋势，由低位0.5915大幅反弹，连升7 个交易日并成功突破并企稳50天线。之后于5月7日高见0.6515，不过未能成功突破250天 线,执笔之时暂时回落至0.642水平。 澳洲央行再减息0.25厘 澳洲央行自今年2月开启减息步伐,随后4月议息会议则按兵不动,唯本周议息会议再减息 0.25厘，将央行现金利率下调至3.85厘。唯澳洲最新公布的数据显示通胀仍然较预期顽固，第 一季度消费者物价指数按年升2.4%，与前值相同，但略高于市场预期的升2.3%。 除此之外，环球贸易方面持续有好消息传来。 ...

2025 年 5 月 21 日 公司研究 分红派息保持稳定，投资开工相对谨慎 ——华发股份（600325.SH）动态跟踪 要点 事件： 5 月 20 日，公司发布 2024 年度权益分配实施公告。 点评：分红派息相对稳定，Q1 毛利率下降明显，投资开工相对谨慎。 分红派息相对稳定：2024 年公司派发每股现金红利 0.104 元，剔除回购股份后 共计派发现金红利 2.85 亿元，约占 2024 年归母净利润的 30.0%。近年来公司 分红派息比例保持相对稳定，2020/2021/2022/2023/2024 分别占归母净利润的 32.8%、30.5%、30.4%、55.4%、30.0%，预计后续公司的分红派息策略将保 持相对稳定。 Q1 毛利率下降明显：2025 年一季度，公司实现营业收入 184.8 亿元，单季毛利 率约为 8.8%（2024 年全年约为 14.3%）下降明显，继续计提信用减值损失 3725 万元，对合联营企业的投资亏损 2830 万元，实现归母净利润 1.9 亿元（归母净 利润率约为 1.0%）；2025 年一季度公司实现销售金额 294.9 亿元（同比增加 45%），销售面积 108.2 ...

2025 年 5 月 21 日 行业研究 餐饮行业有望复苏，关注供应链相关标的 ——餐饮链板块跟踪报告 要点 25Q1 餐饮市场热度相较 24 年全年呈现缓慢复苏态势，门店数量有所增加。根 据章鱼小数据统计的餐饮热度均值，25Q1 餐饮市场相较 24 年全年呈现缓慢复 苏态势。分季度看，24 年前三季度餐饮市场消费相对疲软，24Q4 市场热度明显 提升，或受益于各地陆续发放餐饮消费券，同时节假日消费较为活跃。25Q1 餐 饮景气度环比略有回落，估计与春节假期影响有关，但对比 24 年全年仍处于修 复通道。结合社零数据来看，24 年春节后在前一年高基数下，全国餐饮收入同 比增速明显回落，25 年以来增速有所抬升，3 月社零餐饮收入/限额以上餐饮收 入同比分别为+5.6%/+6.8%、较 1-2 月亦有提速。从门店端来看，24 年前三季 度门店数量较为平稳，24Q4 开始餐饮门店数量有所提升，24Q4/25Q1 门店数 量环比增加 1.5%/1.8%，行业内部竞争依旧激烈。 25Q1 一线城市餐饮热度环比有所提升，政策刺激有望带动需求改善，门店端竞 争淘汰加剧。从不同层级城市来看，一线城市餐饮热度自 24Q4 以 ...

2025 年 5 月 21 日 行业研究 新消费下的包装升级，持续看好 MXD6 产业链 ——石化化工交运行业日报第 66 期（20250520） 要点 我国内需呈现出较高的韧性，我们看好新消费下的包装升级发展机遇。根据 国家统计局发布社消数据，2025 年 4 月社会消费品零售总额为 3.72 万亿 元，同比增长 5.1%，增速比 3 月下降 0.8 个百分点。1-4 月，社会消费品零 售总额为 16.18 万亿元，同比增长 4.7%，增速比上年同期上升 0.6 个百分 点。我国内需呈现出较高的韧性，叠加近期我国持续出台多项提振消费等政 策，我们看好新消费细分赛道的发展机遇。在中国消费结构加速升级的大背 景下，产品包装也在持续升级革新。受包装材料轻量化和高性能化趋势驱 动，高阻隔包装薄膜以其有效实现阻隔氧气和水等物质的功能，延长产品的 保质期和基本性能，在食品、医药、精密仪器及精细化学制品等领域应用广 泛。其中，24 年食品和饮料领域占据阻隔包装材料下游市场的最大份额，占 比约为 48.13%，医药领域的市场份额约为 24.35%。 2030 年全球高阻隔包装薄膜市场规模有望突破千亿元，PVDC、EVOH、 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for future performance [5]. Core Views - The company has a stable dividend policy, distributing a cash dividend of 0.104 yuan per share for 2024, totaling approximately 285 million yuan, which represents about 30% of the projected net profit [1][3]. - The gross profit margin has significantly declined in Q1 2025, with a margin of approximately 8.8%, down from 14.3% for the entire year of 2024 [2][3]. - The company is exercising caution in its investment and construction activities, with no new projects started in Q1 2025 and a total construction area of approximately 7.68 million square meters as of the end of Q1 2025 [2][3]. Summary by Sections Dividend Distribution - The company has consistently maintained a stable dividend payout ratio over the years, with ratios of 32.8%, 30.5%, 30.4%, 55.4%, and 30.0% for the years 2020 to 2024 respectively [1]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company reported revenues of 18.48 billion yuan, with a net profit of 190 million yuan, reflecting a net profit margin of approximately 1.0% [2]. - The sales amount reached 29.49 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 45%, while the average selling price decreased by 8.3% to approximately 27,255 yuan per square meter [2]. Investment and Construction - The company acquired 37,787 square meters of land in Q1 2025, with no new projects initiated during this period [2]. - The total area under construction was approximately 7.68 million square meters, with rental income from properties amounting to about 188 million yuan in Q1 2025 [2]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report forecasts the company's net profit for 2025 at 820 million yuan, with downward adjustments for 2026 and 2027 to 960 million yuan and 1.12 billion yuan respectively [3]. - The current stock price corresponds to price-to-earnings ratios of 17, 15, and 12 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [3].

Group 1: Industry Fundamental Situation Supply Side - In 2024, domestic advanced coal production capacity was released in an orderly manner, with production increasing in Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia and decreasing in Shanxi. The annual coal supply was sufficient, with a national raw coal output of 4.759 billion tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.3%. In 2025, major production areas like Shanxi and Xinjiang are expected to increase production, but the output growth rate will be low [1][12]. - In 2024, China's coal imports remained at a high level, with an import volume of 543 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 14.4%. In 2025, imported coal is expected to support supply, but the growth rate will slow down [1][17]. - In 2024, coal inventories in major production areas increased, and coal inventories at nine ports in the Bohai Rim and power plants were at high levels. In 2025, coal inventories are expected to remain high [1][29]. Demand Side - In 2024, power consumption continued to grow, and thermal power still played an important role in ensuring supply. However, new energy power generation replaced thermal power, and coal demand in the building materials industry was restricted. In 2025, thermal coal demand for power generation is expected to support overall coal demand, and the decline in coal demand for cement production may narrow [2][73]. - In 2024, the demand for coking coal was restricted by the weak demand in the steel industry, with a national coking coal consumption of 588 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 0.58%. In 2025, the steel industry's weak demand pattern is expected to continue [2][59]. - In 2024, the demand for coal in the chemical industry was supported by the increase in production of urea and methanol, but the overall demand was still low. In 2025, the scale of coal demand in the chemical industry is expected to remain small [69][72]. Price Side - In 2024, the prices of thermal coal and coking coal fluctuated downward, and the coal price center shifted downward. In 2025, coal prices are expected to remain under pressure, but long - term agreements will still support coal prices [2][74]. Group 2: 2024 Coal Credit Bond Market Review - In 2024, the issuance scale of coal industry bonds increased significantly year - on - year, with an issuance amount of 383.1 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 80.20%. The issuing entities were mainly local and central state - owned enterprises, and the issuance terms were mainly within 3 years [80]. - As of December 31, 2024, the outstanding bonds in the coal industry were 721.852 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 6.98%. The industry will be in a debt repayment peak in the next three years [3]. - In 2024, the credit spread of the coal industry compressed and was at a relatively low level. The coal industry bond market was generally stable, and the market recognition improved [86]. Group 3: Financial Performance of Coal Enterprises Profitability - In 2024, the operating income and net profit of coal enterprises decreased due to the decline in coal prices. Among the 40 sample enterprises, most had a decline in operating income, net profit, and gross profit margin. In 2025, coal enterprise profitability is expected to be restricted by weak terminal demand and prices, but there will still be support [92][95]. Cash Flow - In 2024, the operating net cash flow of coal enterprises decreased, the net outflow of investment cash flow remained large, and the financing cash flow remained in a net outflow state but with a reduced scale. In 2025, the operating net cash flow is expected to be relatively abundant, the net outflow of investment cash flow will remain rigid but with a reduced scale, and the net outflow of financing cash flow will further narrow [98][103]. Debt Burden and Solvency - In 2024, coal enterprises had a high leverage level and an increasing debt scale, but the overall solvency was still strong. In 2025, the debt scale is expected to rise, the debt structure will continue to optimize, and the overall credit risk is expected to be relatively controllable [105][108].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the power equipment and new energy sector, indicating an expected investment return exceeding 15% over the next 6-12 months compared to the market benchmark index [3][6]. Core Insights - Vertiv plans to launch an 800 VDC power product series in the second half of 2026, aligning with NVIDIA's AI development roadmap, which will support the next-generation AI data center infrastructure [1]. - The HVDC technology is expected to gradually replace UPS systems due to its efficiency in power delivery, especially as server rack power requirements increase beyond 300kW, leading to reduced material usage and operational costs [2]. - The announcement by Vertiv further validates the trend towards HVDC solutions in AI data centers, suggesting a sustained increase in HVDC penetration rates in the future [2]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The HVDC technology is anticipated to become more prevalent in AI data centers, driven by the increasing demand for efficient power solutions as AI technology evolves [2]. Company Developments - Vertiv's collaboration with NVIDIA is a strategic move to ensure that their 800 VDC power solutions are ready to support NVIDIA's upcoming platforms, maintaining a competitive edge in the market [1]. - Other companies mentioned include: - Zhongheng Electric, a leading domestic HVDC enterprise with deep collaboration with Alibaba [5] - Hewei Electric, known for its mature power electronics technology [5] - Sifang Co., which has solid-state transformer products compatible with HVDC solutions [5] - Magpowr, which announced an 800 VDC power solution at the GTC 2025 conference [5] - Kehua Data and Keda, both possessing HVDC technology reserves [5].

Group 1: Banking Sector - The report highlights a systematic decline in interest rates since May, driven by a series of monetary easing policies, with an expected improvement in industry net interest margins by over 5 basis points [2] - The report emphasizes the importance of managing funding costs to alleviate pressure on net interest margins, with a focus on the potential for further policy measures to enhance banks' cost management [2] - The overall outlook for bank stocks is optimistic, supported by stable operational fundamentals and increased attention from policymakers on financial stability and risk prevention [2] Group 2: Chemical Industry - The report maintains a positive outlook on undervalued, high-dividend, and well-performing companies in the "three major oil" and oil service sectors, recommending companies such as China Petroleum, China Petrochemical, and China National Offshore Oil [3] - It also highlights the potential benefits for domestic semiconductor and panel material companies due to the trend of domestic substitution, suggesting companies like Jingrui Electric Materials and Tongcheng New Materials [3] - The report expresses confidence in the pesticide, fertilizer, and private refining sectors, recommending companies such as Wanhua Chemical and Hualu Hengsheng [3] Group 3: Real Estate Sector - The report indicates that New城控股 (New City Holdings) has a strong commercial operation advantage, projecting a revenue of 12.03 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 13.2% [4] - However, it notes a significant decline in real estate sales, forecasting a total sales amount of 40.17 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 47.1% [4] - The report mentions that the company has relatively tight cash on hand, with a projected non-restricted cash to short-term debt ratio of approximately 0.55 by the end of 2024 [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the mechanical industry [1] Core Views - The mechanical industry is experiencing a recovery in demand, particularly in the humanoid robotics sector, with significant collaborations and investments being made to enhance technology and applications [1][2][3] - The humanoid robot industry is expected to see a breakthrough in 2025, with mass production reaching the scale of thousands, which will drive efficiency and practical applications [5] - The engineering machinery sector is witnessing a continuous recovery, with excavator sales showing a year-on-year increase of 17.6% in April 2025 [12] Summary by Relevant Sections Humanoid Robotics - Huawei and UBTECH signed a comprehensive cooperation agreement to enhance humanoid robotics technology and applications [1] - The partnership aims to leverage Huawei's AI infrastructure and UBTECH's robotics technology to accelerate commercialization [1] - The focus will be on developing household service humanoid robots and creating demonstration projects for "humanoid robots + smart factories" [1] Engineering Machinery - The engineering machinery industry is seeing a sustained recovery, with excavator sales in April 2025 reaching 22,142 units, a 17.6% increase year-on-year [12] - Domestic sales accounted for 12,547 units, up 16.4%, while exports reached 9,595 units, increasing by 19.3% [12] - The report suggests that infrastructure investment will remain high, supporting demand for engineering machinery [12] Agricultural Machinery - The agricultural machinery market's sentiment index was reported at 47.9% in April 2025, indicating a decline [7] - The report highlights a long-term positive outlook for agricultural machinery demand, particularly in the context of the Belt and Road Initiative [8] Robotics and Automation - The report emphasizes the importance of technological advancements in robotics, with significant investments in humanoid robotics and automation solutions [2][3] - Companies like Magic Atom and Self-Variable Robot have secured substantial funding to enhance their core technologies and accelerate market entry [3] Market Trends - The report notes a shift in the agricultural machinery subsidy policy towards market-oriented competition, which is expected to benefit leading companies in the sector [8] - The mechanical industry is also adapting to international trade dynamics, with a focus on exports and technological upgrades in response to changing tariffs [9][11] Key Data Tracking - The report includes various data points, such as a 51.5% year-on-year increase in industrial robot production in April 2025 [28] - It also highlights the growth in metal cutting machine tool production, which saw a 20.5% increase year-on-year in the first quarter of 2025 [6]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a "Buy" rating for several companies, including Honglu Steel Structure, China Jushi, and Puyang Refractories, among others [2][14]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the 65 public REITs listed have shown an average increase of 7.23% on their first trading day, with the highest increase in rental housing REITs at 18.6% and the lowest in transportation infrastructure REITs at 1.7% [2][4]. - It emphasizes the importance of the difference between the risk-free rate on the assessment benchmark date and the listing date in determining the listing price increase potential of new REITs [2][4]. - The report notes that since December 2024, the overall risk-free rate has remained low, and as this rate difference narrows, the expected returns from new public REITs are likely to decrease unless there are significant changes in the operational fundamentals of the listed products [2][4]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Topic: Analysis of Public REITs Listing Increase Potential - The report discusses the performance of public REITs on their first trading day, with a focus on the factors influencing their price movements [2][4]. - It provides a detailed table of various REITs, their listing dates, underlying asset types, and their respective price changes on the first day [4][10]. 2. Major Covered Companies' Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The report includes earnings forecasts and valuations for several companies, indicating expected EPS and P/E ratios for 2025 to 2027, along with investment ratings [14][15]. - Companies such as Hainan Huatie and Puyang Refractories are highlighted with specific EPS and P/E projections, reinforcing their investment appeal [14][15]. 3. Weekly Market Review - The report reviews the weekly performance of the construction and building materials sectors, providing insights into the top gainers and losers within these industries [18][24]. - It includes graphical representations of the weekly performance of various sub-sectors, showcasing the overall market trends [19][22]. 4. Total Data Tracking - The report tracks total data relevant to the construction and building materials sectors, providing a comprehensive overview of market dynamics [18][24]. 5. High-Frequency Data Tracking - The report includes high-frequency data tracking to monitor real-time market movements and trends within the industry [18][24].