英大证券研究所证券研究报告 金 点 策 略 晨 报 2025 年 5 月 9 日 缩量上涨释放何种信号？后市将如何演绎？乐观情绪与谨慎态度并存 总量视角 【A 股大势研判】 周三，央行、证监会、金融监管总局联合推出"一揽子金融政策"，虽然周 三沪深三大指数集体上涨，但涨幅一般。周四沪深三大指数继续集体上涨，但两 市成交额较前一日出现萎缩。缩量上涨释放出何种信号？一是政策利好已被部分 消化，场外资金仍处于观望状态，尚未大规模入场；二是板块轮动节奏加快。周 三人工智能及半导体等科技股下跌，周四银行等板块表现不错。这表明市场对高 估值品种的担忧依然存在，低估值板块则出现资金回流的现象。 另外，缩量上涨之下市场将如何演绎？一方面，短期或震荡蓄势，等待政策 效果验证。从整体来看，政策组合拳对流动性的中长期利好尚未完全释放，降准 释放的 1 万亿元资金将逐步流入实体经济和资本市场，有望为市场带来提振。不 过，市场走势还需密切关注经济数据表现。另一方面，政策加码预期或推动二次 冲高。在一揽子政策框架下，更多政策细则有望逐步出台。如果后续政策超预期， 可能吸引增量资金入场，推动指数继续上冲。不过，市场也存在阶段的技术性调 整 ...

Group 1 - The report highlights a series of favorable policies announced by the central bank and regulatory authorities, including interest rate cuts and increased liquidity measures, which have led to a mixed performance in the A-share market [2][8][9] - The market's reaction to these policies has been subdued, attributed to factors such as prior anticipation of these measures, external geopolitical tensions, and a shift in investor sentiment towards defensive sectors like military and real estate [3][9][10] - The report suggests that the market may enter a period of observation regarding the effectiveness of these policies, with key variables including the pace of liquidity release and developments in US-China trade negotiations [3][10] Group 2 - The military sector has shown significant gains, driven by geopolitical tensions and government support for defense modernization, with expectations of continued policy backing and a stable increase in defense budgets from 2020 to 2025 [6][7] - The real estate sector is also highlighted as active, with recent policy measures aimed at stabilizing the housing market, including a reduction in housing loan rates, which may provide short-term boosts to the industry [7][8] - The report emphasizes the importance of selecting quality companies within the military and real estate sectors, particularly those with strong fundamentals and growth potential, while being cautious of broader market risks [6][7][10]

A 股走出独立行情，后市上行仍面临压力，采取防守叠加进攻的平衡策 略 观点： 总量视角 【A 股大势研判】 周二 A 股延续反弹态势，沪指盘中一度收复 3300 点整数关口，但尾盘未能 守住。A 股在政策预期强化、内资护盘及部分行业景气度回升的支撑下走出独立 行情。不过，近期两市成交额在万亿附近，仍属于阶段地量水平。 英大证券研究所证券研究报告 金 点 策 略 晨 报 2025 年 4 月 23 日 后市上行仍面临压力。建议投资者不要盲目追涨，在此期间，仍可采取防守 叠加进攻的平衡策略。防御方向，可关注高股息、消费等方向。而进攻还是成长 主线，逢低可继续关注半导体、AI 算力及政策受益的新质生产力方向。 后市密切关注贸易谈判的情况。若双方能够通过谈判缓解紧张局势，市场信 心将得到较大提振，反之则可能继续承压。后续还要关注国内政策的对冲力度。 投资者普遍等待 4 月底重要会议对经济形势的研判及政策部署，其中对经济以及 对资本市场的进一步政策预期，或成为中期行情的催化剂。 请务必阅读最后一页的免责条款 1 分析师：惠祥凤 执业证书编号：S0990513100001 电话：0755-83007028 邮箱：huix ...

Market Overview - The A-share market saw a collective rise in the three major indices, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a new high in this round of rebound, despite a trading volume just above 1 trillion, indicating a low level of activity [2][4][9] - Factors contributing to the market's resilience include policy support and capital backing, with state-owned funds increasing their holdings in ETFs, alleviating liquidity concerns among investors [2][9] - Market sentiment is recovering, with structural differentiation observed, as sectors like domestic consumption (duty-free, food and beverage), defensive sectors (banking, gold), and self-sufficient fields (military industry, semiconductors) attract investor interest [2][9] Sector Performance - The precious metals sector experienced significant gains, driven by heightened market risk aversion due to global tariff issues, prompting investors to seek safe-haven assets like gold [6] - Digital economy stocks were active, with sectors such as remote work and digital taxation showing promise, as China's digital economy is expected to grow rapidly in the coming years [6] - The robotics industry also saw substantial growth, with notable increases in stock prices since early January, supported by strong internal growth momentum and favorable government policies [7] Future Outlook - The report suggests that investors should focus on three main lines for low-cost positioning: self-sufficient fields (semiconductors, AI computing), domestic consumption (pharmaceuticals, food and beverage), and high-dividend sectors (state-owned enterprises, public utilities) [10] - The upcoming important meetings at the end of April are anticipated to provide further policy direction, which could act as a catalyst for mid-term market trends [4][10] - Despite the current rebound, the sustainability of this trend is questioned due to insufficient trading volume and the potential for adjustments in stocks lacking performance support during the earnings disclosure period [3][9]

2025 年 4 月 21 日 市场成交萎缩，在观望和等待 分析师：惠祥凤 执业证书编号：S0990513100001 电话：0755-83007028 邮箱：huixf@ydzq.sgcc.com.cn 观点： 总量视角 英大证券研究所证券研究报告 【A 股大势研判】 上周五晨报提醒，尽管沪指 8 连阳，但资金观望情绪依旧浓厚，成交持续萎 缩下，市场量价背离。市场走势如我们预期，上周五上午市场下跌，盘面上，6G 等概念股大涨。午后券商及地产股拉升，带动指数回升。收盘三大指数涨跌不一， 全天维持缩量震荡的格局。 上周指数出现分化，沪指周涨幅 1.19%，而深成指、创指周跌幅分别为 0.54 %、 0.64%。主要原因可能是银行等板块持续护盘，带动沪指上涨，而题材股大面积 下跌，成为拖累深市指数的主因。 两市成交额连续两天跌破万亿大关，说明市场观望情绪较浓。市场究竟在担 忧什么？又在等待什么呢？ 一方面，国外方面，市场依旧担忧关税政策的扰动。美国关税政策反复，政 策不确定性仍压制风险偏好。而近期美股科技股持续波动，成长股估值有压力， 或给国内创业板等带来承压预期。 另外，国内主要是国内业绩验证与政策博弈。4 月 ...

英大证券研究所证券研究报告 金 点 策 略 晨 报 总量视角 2025 年 4 月 18 日 大盘 8 连阳伴随成交萎缩，市场在担忧等待什么？ 分析师：惠祥凤 执业证书编号：S0990513100001 电话：0755-83007028 邮箱：huixf@ydzq.sgcc.com.cn 观点： 【A 股大势研判】 周四晨报提醒，周三沪指成功翻红实现 7 连阳，而深成指、创业板指跌幅收 窄。尽管周三尾盘市场强势拉升，但此前修复性行情之后，两市全天成交维持低 位，板块个股分化，市场分歧明显，不排除后市仍有再次震荡幅回踩的可能。对 于投资者来说，可逢低布局三条主线：一是自主可控领域；二是内需消费；三是 高股息板块。 市场走势如我们预期， 周四市场窄幅震荡，沪深三大指数涨跌不一，两市 成交进一步萎缩并跌破万亿大关，显示市场交投热情相对低迷。盘面上看，内需 和自主可控成为 A 股表现最强的两大主线。内需主线方面，旅游酒店板块大涨， 地产链、食品饮料等板块也大涨；自主可控主线方面，光刻机及半导体板块大涨。 整体看，尽管沪指 8 连阳，但资金观望情绪依旧浓厚，成交持续萎缩下，市 场量价的背离，观望情绪较浓。市场究竟在担忧 ...

Core Views - The A-share market is experiencing mixed performance with shrinking trading volume, indicating potential volatility ahead, particularly due to liquidity tightening affecting high-valuation sectors [3][9][10] - Despite overall market weakness, certain sectors are showing resilience, particularly consumer stocks, banking, and companies with positive earnings forecasts for Q1 [3][9][10] - The unpredictable nature of the Trump administration's tariff policies is creating uncertainty for the A-share market and economic fundamentals, necessitating close monitoring of trade negotiations [3][10] Market Overview - On Tuesday, the three major indices in the A-share market showed mixed results, with total trading volume falling below 1.1 trillion yuan. The market sentiment is generally weak, with a notable decrease in trading activity during the recent rebound [5][6] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3267.66 points, up 0.15%, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.27% to 9858.10 points. The ChiNext Index also saw a slight decline of 0.13% [6][11] Sector Performance - Consumer stocks, particularly in the beauty, cosmetics, and food and beverage sectors, are showing strong performance, driven by government initiatives to boost domestic consumption [7][9] - Banking stocks are providing support to the index, with expectations of interest rate cuts and increased capital inflows enhancing their appeal as stable dividend-paying investments [8][9] - The report highlights the potential for agricultural stocks to benefit from rising prices due to tariff policies, suggesting a focus on this sector moving forward [7] Investment Strategies - Investors are advised to consider three main lines for low-cost positioning: self-sufficient sectors (semiconductors, AI computing), domestic consumption (pharmaceuticals, food and beverages), and high-dividend sectors (state-owned enterprises, public utilities) [3][10] - The report anticipates increased fiscal and monetary policy support in response to the economic targets set for 2025, which may bolster market confidence in the medium term [4][10]

英大证券研究所证券研究报告 金 点 策 略 晨 报 2025 年 4 月 15 日 美国关税反复无常，逢低布局三条主线 分析师：惠祥凤 执业证书编号：S0990513100001 电话：0755-83007028 邮箱：huixf@ydzq.sgcc.com.cn 观点： 总量视角 【A 股大势研判】 周一沪深三大指数继续反弹，板块个股涨多跌少，盘面上看，海南概念股、 体育产业等领涨。市场情绪延续回暖趋势，但成交额整体萎缩下，回升情绪也在 边际递减。当前关税的实质性影响以及市场基本面仍有隐忧。 特朗普政府在关税问题上的反复无常也令人头疼。短期对 A 股市场及经济基 本面造成扰动及不确定性，预计国内政策加码对冲的力度也会加大。后市密切关 注贸易谈判的情况。若双方能够通过谈判缓解紧张局势，市场信心将得到较大提 振，反之则可能继续承压。对于投资者来说，可逢低布局三条主线：一是自主可 控领域（半导体、AI 算力等）；二是内需消费（医药、食品饮料等）；三是高股 息板块（央国企、公用事业等）。 后续还要关注国内政策的对冲力度。考虑两会中设定的 2025 年的经济目标， 预计后续财政、货币政策都会加大刺激力度。中期支撑基础 ...

Core Views - The A-share market has shown a four-day rally since April 8, following a significant drop on April 7, driven by state intervention and policy releases that alleviated liquidity pressure [1][14] - The temporary suspension of "reciprocal tariffs" by the Trump administration has improved global market sentiment, contributing to the recovery of A-shares [1][14] - The logic of domestic substitution has been reinforced, with accelerated progress in self-sufficiency in key industries, particularly in the semiconductor sector [1][14] Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a significant drop of 3.11% for the Shanghai Composite Index and 5.13% for the Shenzhen Component Index in the previous week, but has since rebounded [7] - The semiconductor sector has been a standout performer, with strong gains driven by new policies and market dynamics [9][10] - The overall market sentiment has improved, with a total trading volume of 13,487 billion yuan, indicating active trading conditions [6] Sector Performance - The semiconductor sector has seen substantial growth, supported by national policies and the establishment of the National Integrated Circuit Industry Investment Fund [9] - Precious metals have also surged as investors seek safe-haven assets amid global uncertainties, with gold prices rising significantly [10] - Consumer stocks have shown resilience, particularly in the food and beverage sectors, as domestic consumption is expected to drive economic recovery [11] Future Outlook - The report anticipates continued support from domestic policies, with expectations of increased fiscal and monetary stimulus to bolster the economy [3][15] - Close attention should be paid to trade negotiations, as successful outcomes could lead to a rebound in export-oriented industries [15] - The semiconductor and AI sectors are expected to receive more policy support, making them attractive for investors looking for opportunities [15]

Core Views - The recent collective rise of the A-share market indices is attributed to the temporary suspension of "reciprocal tariffs" by the Trump administration, which has improved global market sentiment [2][8] - The market has recovered above 3200 points, indicating a potential end to the recent downward trend driven by emotional short-term selling [2][9] - Despite the positive sentiment, concerns remain regarding the substantial impact of tariffs and the overall market fundamentals, as corporate earnings have not yet fully improved [2][9] Market Overview - On Thursday, the A-share market indices continued to rebound, supported by several favorable factors including state intervention, a wave of stock buybacks by listed companies, and expectations of interest rate cuts [4][5] - The trading volume reached 16,095 billion, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3,223.64 points, up 1.16%, and the Shenzhen Component Index rising 2.25% [5] - The precious metals sector saw significant activity, driven by increased demand for safe-haven assets amid global tariff tensions [6] Sector Performance - The precious metals and consumer sectors, including dairy, food and beverage, and retail, showed strong performance, indicating a shift towards domestic consumption as a key driver for economic recovery in 2025 [7][8] - The recent announcement by the State Taxation Administration to promote "immediate refund" services for overseas travelers has boosted the performance of duty-free and tax refund concept stocks [6][7] Future Market Outlook - Continued attention is required on trade negotiations, as successful outcomes could lead to a rebound in industries with strong export recovery expectations [9] - The report anticipates increased fiscal and monetary policy support in response to the economic goals set during the Two Sessions, which is expected to bolster market sentiment in the medium term [3][9]