Market Overview - The market experienced a volatile pattern last week, with the Shanghai Composite Index fluctuating around the 3400 point mark before retreating again [2][3][16] - Key factors contributing to the market's short-term decline include heightened geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, which increased risk aversion among investors [2][16] - The 3400 point level has historically been a strong resistance zone, with significant selling pressure from trapped investors, leading to insufficient buying momentum to break through [2][16] - Economic recovery remains weak, with May's PMI in contraction territory and ongoing deflationary pressures in PPI, despite favorable policy measures aimed at boosting consumption [2][16] Mid-term Outlook - Despite the short-term setbacks, the mid-term outlook for the market remains positive, supported by clear domestic policy directions and coordinated fiscal and monetary policies [3][17] - The overall market valuation is still considered reasonable, suggesting that any market corrections could present opportunities for investors to accumulate quality stocks [3][17] Sector Performance - The oil and gas sector saw significant gains, driven by geopolitical events that pushed international oil prices higher [9][10] - Precious metals also experienced a rally, influenced by ongoing geopolitical tensions and lower-than-expected inflation data in the U.S., which increased expectations for potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [10][11] - Aerospace and military-related stocks performed well, with ongoing government support for defense spending and geopolitical risks potentially acting as catalysts for future growth [11] - The rare earth permanent magnet sector showed strong activity, buoyed by government export control measures that are expected to enhance pricing and profitability [12] Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to avoid impulsive trading strategies and consider a high sell-low buy approach, particularly for stocks that have seen significant price increases [4][18] - Focus areas for future investments include sectors such as brokerage firms, high-dividend stocks, and consumer sectors, particularly those catering to the aging population and younger consumers [4][18] - Growth sectors like robotics, semiconductors, AI, and digital economy are also recommended for attention during market dips [4][18] - The report suggests monitoring potential mergers and acquisitions as a theme for investment, particularly in companies with anticipated restructuring news [4][18]

Core Views - The A-share market is currently experiencing a tug-of-war around the 3400-point level, with the index showing volatility and a lack of strong upward momentum due to insufficient trading volume and weak economic fundamentals [2][3][8] - A breakthrough above 3400 points may require a combination of policy signals, industry alignment, and increased capital inflow, particularly if external conditions improve [3][9] Market Overview - On Thursday, the Shanghai Composite Index opened lower but rebounded, fluctuating around the 3400-point mark, ultimately closing at 3402.66 points, a slight increase of 0.01% [5] - The overall market sentiment remains subdued, with a total trading volume of 12,718 billion, indicating a general lack of strong buying interest [5] Sector Performance - The cultural media sector saw significant gains, driven by trends in AI applications and the popularity of new entertainment formats, suggesting a positive outlook for the industry [6] - The precious metals sector also experienced a rise, influenced by geopolitical tensions and lower-than-expected inflation data in the U.S., which has increased expectations for potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [7] Future Outlook - The report suggests that the market may continue to face challenges unless there is a clear policy direction supporting new productive forces or domestic demand expansion [3][9] - Investors are advised to adopt a strategy of buying low and selling high, focusing on sectors such as brokerage, high-dividend stocks, and consumer sectors, while also considering growth areas like robotics, semiconductors, and AI [3][9]

3400 点或仍有拉锯，把握结构性机会，高抛低吸或是占优策略 总量视角 【A 股大势研判】 周二午后 A 股突然跳水，周三沪深三大指数高开高走全线走强，成功实现了 对周二下跌的反包，沪指收盘在 3400 点上方。不过，周三量能明显萎缩，这或 许反应出市场的几个主要矛盾：一是信心修复但追高意愿不足；二是利好刺激边 际效应递减。虽有积极消息推动高开，但指数未能借势放量上攻，显示利好对市 场整体做多动能的提振作用有限；三是缩量反包更倾向于对周二下跌的技术性修 复。 英大证券研究所证券研究报告 金 点 策 略 晨 报 2025 年 6 月 12 日 考虑到海外压力犹存、国内经济修复不强及政策预期的博弈窗口，因此，虽 然周三反包形态确实缓和了市场悲观情绪，显示出下方承接力量的存在，使得回 撤风险有所减弱。但由于量能不足，反弹根基并不牢固，同时，在缺乏显著放量 以及强有力的新驱动因素的情况下，市场难以形成一致的单边预期，短期内难以 期待指数出现流畅、大幅的拉升，3400 点附近或仍有拉锯，预计短期 A 股市场将 呈现震荡或震荡上行的概率较大，把握结构性机会。 操作上，避免盲目追涨杀跌，高抛低吸或是占优策略。对前期涨幅较大 ...

Core Views - The report emphasizes that the market is currently in a phase of technical adjustment, with the Shanghai Composite Index struggling to maintain the 3400-point level, indicating a need for sustained volume to break through this resistance [2][3][11] - The report highlights several concerns affecting market sentiment, including weak domestic economic recovery, ongoing overseas pressures, and a lack of clear policy signals, which have led to cautious investor behavior [2][11][12] Market Overview - On Tuesday, the Shanghai Composite Index briefly surpassed 3400 points but fell to a low of 3365 points in the afternoon, reflecting a volatile trading environment [2][10] - The report notes that the market is experiencing structural differentiation, with sectors like banking and innovative pharmaceuticals performing well, while others like aerospace and software development are underperforming [5][6][7] Sector Analysis - The shipping and port sector saw significant gains, driven by increased shipping activities to the U.S. and expectations of a pre-summer inventory buildup [7] - The pharmaceutical sector is highlighted for its resilience, particularly in innovative drugs, which are expected to benefit from a favorable commercialization environment and an aging population [8] - Rare earth permanent magnet stocks are also noted for their upward movement, influenced by government export control measures aimed at maintaining national security [9] Investment Strategy - The report advises investors to avoid impulsive trading strategies and instead focus on high-quality stocks, particularly in sectors such as brokerage, high-dividend stocks, and consumer goods [3][12] - It suggests that investors should consider growth sectors like robotics, semiconductors, AI, and digital economy, as well as potential mergers and acquisitions for thematic investments [3][12]

Core Views - The recent market rebound in A-shares is attributed to external factors, particularly the U.S. court's halt on Trump's trade policy, which has raised questions about the sustainability of this rebound [2][8][10] - Despite the short-term rebound, the overall adjustment trend in the A-share market has not been clearly concluded, suggesting a cautious optimism among investors [3][9] Market Overview - On the day of the report, all three major indices in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets opened higher and experienced a collective rise, with significant gains in sectors such as digital economy and autonomous driving [4][5] - The total trading volume reached 11,854 billion, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3,363.45 points, up 0.70%, and the Shenzhen Component Index closing at 10,127.20 points, up 1.24% [5] Sector Analysis - The digital economy sector saw substantial gains, driven by government initiatives and the ongoing development of data-related policies, with expectations for continued growth in this area [6][7] - The innovative pharmaceutical sector also experienced a surge, with a favorable commercial environment and increasing domestic production capabilities, indicating potential for investment in this field [7] Future Market Outlook - The report suggests that while the current market environment shows signs of recovery, the underlying economic fundamentals remain weak, and the sustainability of the rebound is uncertain [8][9] - Long-term strategies should focus on high-quality stocks with stable performance and reasonable valuations, particularly in technology and consumer sectors, as well as potential mergers and acquisitions [9]

Core Views - The report indicates that the A-share market is experiencing a short-term adjustment due to six factors, including insufficient domestic economic recovery and external uncertainties from U.S. tariff policies and Federal Reserve monetary policy dilemmas [2][7][9] - Despite the short-term downward trend, the report suggests that this may present a mid-term opportunity for low-cost buying and positioning, supported by policies aimed at stabilizing the market and increasing liquidity [2][8] Market Overview - On the day of the report, the A-share market saw a collective decline in the three major indices, with the total trading volume falling below 1 trillion yuan, indicating a lack of market confidence [4][5] - The report highlights that sectors such as food and beverage, as well as certain agricultural stocks, showed resilience and upward movement despite the overall market decline [6][7] Sector Analysis - The pesticide and veterinary drug sectors, particularly glyphosate stocks, experienced significant gains due to rising prices and industry consolidation driven by policy and market pressures [6] - The food and beverage sector is expected to benefit from domestic consumption recovery, with potential growth in areas such as the "silver economy" for the elderly and "self-indulgent consumption" among younger consumers [6][7] Investment Strategy - The report advises against impulsive trading and suggests a strategy of high selling and low buying, focusing on high-quality stocks with stable performance and reasonable valuations [3][8] - It emphasizes the importance of monitoring sectors like technology growth and consumer recovery, particularly in robotics, semiconductors, and AI, as well as potential opportunities in mergers and acquisitions [3][8]

2025 年 5 月 26 日 短期调整趋势或将延续 分析师：惠祥凤 执业证书编号：S0990513100001 电话：0755-83007028 邮箱：huixf@ydzq.sgcc.com.cn 英大证券研究所证券研究报告 每 周 投 资 早 参 观点： 总量视角 【A 股大势研判】 上周五晨报提醒，目前市场依旧面临内外部的压力，外部层面，美国财政困 局逼近推升美债利率上行预期，全球金融系统不确定性增加。内部方面， 4 月公 布的制造业数据重回荣枯线下方，而 4 月人民币贷款不及预期，说明国内经济修 复不强。内忧外患之下，谨防短期调整趋势的延续。市场走势如我们预期，上周 五沪深三大指数集体调整，盘面上看，医药、贵金属等防御性板块走强。 展望后市，短期调整趋势或将延续，当然，这里提到的是短期节奏，若阶段 调整延续，或是中期低吸以及布局的好时机。如果从中期看，政策托底与流动性 宽松仍是主基调。降准释放的万亿资金将逐步流入实体经济，叠加险资入市放宽、 中长期资金引入等政策，市场底部支撑较强，整体向好的趋势相对明显。 操作上，避免盲目追涨杀跌，高抛低吸或是占优策略。对前期涨幅较大的个 股可逐步减持，重点逢低关注业 ...

Core Views - The report indicates that the recent 10 basis points reduction in the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) is expected to stimulate consumption and economic recovery, which is favorable for the A-share market [3][9][11] - The market is experiencing a collective rise, driven by consumer policies and the anticipation of the 618 shopping festival, particularly benefiting sectors like beauty care and retail chains [3][9][10] A-share Market Analysis - On May 20, the LPR was lowered for the first time this year, with both the 1-year and 5-year LPR down by 10 basis points, alongside a reduction in deposit rates by major banks, signaling further liquidity easing [3][9][11] - The market showed collective gains on Tuesday, with significant activity in beauty care and retail sectors, reflecting a positive response to consumption policies [3][9][10] - Despite the overall market rise, there is a divergence in high-priced stocks, indicating potential volatility and a continuation of a fluctuating market pattern [4][10] Sector Performance - The beauty care sector saw substantial gains, driven by ongoing government support for consumption upgrades and increasing consumer demand for beauty products [7][9] - Consumer stocks remain active, with food and beverage sectors continuing to perform well, suggesting that domestic consumption will be a key driver for economic recovery in 2025 [7][9] - The cultural media sector is also on the rise, with advancements in AI technology benefiting downstream applications in gaming and media, indicating a positive outlook for these industries [8][9] Investment Strategy - The report advises caution against blindly chasing high-performing stocks and suggests gradually reducing positions in stocks that have seen significant gains [4][5] - It emphasizes focusing on high-quality stocks with stable performance and reasonable valuations, particularly in sectors like technology growth and consumer recovery [4][10] - The report highlights the potential for mergers and acquisitions as a theme for investment, recommending early positioning in stocks with restructuring expectations [4][10]

金 点 策 略 晨 报 2025 年 5 月 20 日 短期震荡或将延续，避免盲目追涨杀跌 英大证券研究所证券研究报告 分析师：惠祥凤 执业证书编号：S0990513100001 电话：0755-83007028 邮箱：huixf@ydzq.sgcc.com.cn 观点： 首先，成交量略有欠缺及板块轮动较快。近期量能不足叠加板块轮动较快， 缺乏持续性主线，反映出市场信心不足。 其次，外部环境仍有不确定性。虽然中美经贸声明虽远超预期，但并不意味 着关税影响就此终结。事实上，后续关税谈判仍需持续推进，可能还存在诸多变 数。 再次，技术面的压力。3400 点作为前期密集成交区，积累了不少套牢盘，与 此同时，周三大金融拉升下市场成交额并未明显放大，反映出投资者追涨意愿不 足。 最后，当前市场的核心影响因素在于国内基本面。4 月公布的制造业数据重 回荣枯线下方，而 4 月人民币贷款不及预期，1-4 月全国房地产开发投资同比下 降 10.3%，国内基本面修复动能尚需发力。尽管关税有所下调，但目前关税比例 依然较高，对经济仍存在一定影响。若后续经济数据表现平稳，市场有望得到更 好提振；但倘若经济数据平淡，市场压力可能依旧存 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market has successfully recovered from the significant drop caused by the "reciprocal tariff" policy announced in early April 2025, with major indices regaining previous lows by May 14, 2025[3][20] - The recovery was primarily driven by policy stimulus and emotional repair, resulting in a "V-shaped reversal" in the indices, but the market now faces a lack of new catalysts and potential short-term adjustments[3][20] Market Sentiment and Trends - Recent market behavior shows rapid rotation among sectors such as military, shipping, finance, and beauty care, indicating insufficient market confidence and a preference for short-term speculation[4][20] - The external environment remains uncertain, with ongoing tariff negotiations that could introduce further volatility despite recent positive developments in US-China trade relations[4][20] Technical and Economic Factors - The 3400-point level has become a significant resistance area, accumulating many trapped positions, and recent financial sector rallies did not lead to a substantial increase in trading volume, reflecting weak investor enthusiasm[4][22] - Domestic economic indicators, such as the manufacturing PMI dropping to 49% in April and lower-than-expected RMB loans, suggest that economic recovery is not robust, which could continue to exert pressure on the market[4][22] Investment Strategy - The market is entering a traditional "performance vacuum" period, lacking earnings data guidance and facing strong selling pressure from profit-taking and cautious sentiment[5][20] - Investors are advised to avoid blind chasing of price increases and to focus on sector rotation, employing a strategy of buying low and selling high[5][23]