分析师：张刚 登记编码：S0730511010001 资料来源：聚源，中原证券研究所 -16% -10% -5% 0% 6% 11% 16% 22% 2024.04 2024.08 2024.12 2025.04 上证指数 深证成指 | 国内市场表现 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指数名称 | | 昨日收盘价 | 涨跌幅(%) | | 上证指数 | | 3,186.81 | 1.31 | | 深证成指 | | 9,539.89 | 1.22 | | 创业板指 | | 2,022.77 | -0.47 | | 沪深 | 300 | 3,686.79 | 0.99 | | 上证 | 50 | 2,443.97 | -0.52 | | 科创 | 50 | 891.46 | 0.14 | | 创业板 | 50 | 1,924.26 | -0.67 | | 中证 | 100 | 3,529.04 | 0.80 | | 中证 | 500 | 5,439.77 | 2.12 | | 中证 | 1000 | 6,116.76 | 0.33 | | 国证 | 2000 | 7,801. ...

乘用车Ⅱ 分析师：龙羽洁 登记编码：S0730523120001 longyj@ccnew.com 0371-65585753 业绩实现高增，全球化智能化引领增长 ——长城汽车(601633)年报点评 证券研究报告-年报点评 增持(首次) 市场数据(2025-04-08) | 收盘价(元) | 22.95 | | --- | --- | | 一年内最高/最低(元) | 32.03/21.83 | | 沪深 300 指数 | 3,650.76 | | 市净率(倍) | 2.50 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 1,953.65 | | 基础数据(2024-12-31) | | | 每股净资产(元) | 9.19 | | 每股经营现金流(元) | 3.25 | | 毛利率(%) | 19.51 | | 净资产收益率_摊薄(%) | 16.07 | | 资产负债率(%) | 63.64 | | 总股本/流通股(万股) | 856,265.52/851,265.0 | | | 6 | B 股/H 股(万股) 0.00/231,877.60 个股相对沪深 300 指数表现 资料来源：中原证券研究所，聚源 相关报告 -11 ...

Market Overview - On April 9, 2025, the A-share market experienced a slight upward trend after an initial decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3,186.81 points, up 1.31%[8] - The Shenzhen Component Index rose by 1.22%, while the ChiNext Index increased by 0.98%[8] - The total trading volume for both markets reached 17,413 billion yuan, above the median of the past three years[3] Sector Performance - Semiconductor, military, software development, and computer equipment sectors showed strong performance, while banking, insurance, electricity, and pesticide sectors lagged[3] - The defense and military sector led with a gain of 6.48%, followed by comprehensive finance at 5.27%[11] Valuation Metrics - The average price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for the Shanghai Composite and ChiNext indices are 13.42 times and 32.30 times, respectively, indicating a mid-level valuation compared to the past three years[3] - The market is deemed suitable for medium to long-term investment strategies[3] Policy Outlook - The 2025 fiscal policy is expected to be more proactive, with potential interest rate cuts to maintain liquidity and support economic recovery[3] - The central economic work conference has confirmed a "moderately loose monetary policy" and "more proactive fiscal policy" for 2025[3] Investment Recommendations - Investors are advised to focus on structural opportunities while balancing defensive and growth strategies, particularly in technology, military, and software sectors[3] - The upcoming earnings reports in April will shift market focus from expectations to fundamental validations, favoring industry leaders with better-than-expected performance[3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company, indicating a projected relative increase of 5% to 15% compared to the CSI 300 index over the next six months [2][25]. Core Views - The company reported a significant decline in performance, with total revenue of 4.594 billion yuan in 2024, down 30.34% year-on-year, and a net loss of 610 million yuan, a change of -254.52% [6][10]. - The photovoltaic glass industry is experiencing overcapacity, leading to a substantial drop in prices and impacting the company's financial results. The company has implemented measures to optimize production lines and reduce costs to navigate through this challenging period [9][10]. - The company sold 340 million square meters of photovoltaic glass in 2024, a decrease of 6.65% year-on-year, with an average selling price of 13.31 yuan per square meter, down 24.06% [9][10]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company reported a negative operating cash flow of -394 million yuan in 2024, a decline of 374.48% year-on-year, and a basic earnings per share of -0.94 yuan [6][10]. - The gross profit margin was -4.35%, down 16.49 percentage points year-on-year, indicating a challenging cost structure [9][10]. Industry Outlook - The photovoltaic glass industry is entering a phase of sustained capacity reduction, which is expected to gradually improve the supply-demand balance and alleviate some operational pressures [9][10]. - The report anticipates that the company's net profit will improve in 2026 and 2027, with projections of 109 million yuan and 222 million yuan, respectively, corresponding to a diluted EPS of 0.17 yuan and 0.34 yuan [10][11]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is focusing on optimizing production scale and reducing costs through strategic measures such as phasing out older production lines and enhancing operational efficiency [9][10]. - The report highlights the company's strong financial backing from its controlling shareholder, China National Building Material Group, which may support its long-term growth in the photovoltaic glass sector [10].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate (Maintain)" [1] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 35.471 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 5.43%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 10.031 billion yuan, up 27.31% year-on-year [5][8] - The company continues to strengthen its retail customer base and consolidate its traditional advantages, with net income from brokerage business increasing by 12.49% year-on-year [6][12] - The company set a historical record in debt financing, with net income from investment banking business increasing by 10.58% year-on-year [14] - Investment income (including fair value changes) saw a significant increase of 50.20% year-on-year, contributing significantly to the company's performance [20] - The international business maintained a competitive edge, with revenue from international operations increasing by 8.29% year-on-year [26] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a total revenue of 35.471 billion yuan, with a net profit of 10.031 billion yuan and basic earnings per share of 0.81 yuan [5][8] - The weighted average return on equity was 8.30%, an increase of 0.78 percentage points year-on-year [5][8] Business Segments - The brokerage, investment banking, and asset management businesses saw an increase in net income, while interest income and other income decreased [6][9] - The company achieved a net income from brokerage fees of 6.189 billion yuan, up 12.49% year-on-year [12] - The investment income (including fair value changes) accounted for 32.4% of total net income, a significant increase from the previous year [9] Debt and Equity Financing - The company achieved a record in debt financing with a total underwriting amount of 483.343 billion yuan, up 34.65% year-on-year [14] - The company completed one refinancing project with a main underwriting amount of 200 million yuan, a decrease of 94.69% year-on-year [14] Asset Management - The asset management business saw a slight decrease in scale, with net income from asset management fees increasing by 6.13% year-on-year [19] - The total asset management scale was 85.190 billion yuan, down 9.92% year-on-year [19] International Business - The international business revenue reached 2.172 billion yuan, an increase of 8.29% year-on-year, with a strong presence in Southeast Asia [26]

liuran@ccnew.com 021-50586281 食饮行情回暖，要素价格延续回落态势 ——食品饮料行业 3 月月报 发布日期：2025 年 04 月 09 日 ⚫ 2025 年 3 月，食品饮料板块上涨 2.34%，板块连续两个月上涨。啤酒、白酒、 肉制品分别上涨 6.24%、2.68%和 2.08%，零食和调味品下跌 2.8%和 1.19%。同 期，沪深 300 下跌 0.07%，食品饮料板块跑赢大盘。2025 年 1 至 3 月，食饮板 块累计微涨：其中，白酒行情的持续性较好；零食、调味品回调；啤酒随着气 温升高有望持续表现。 证券研究报告-行业月报 同步大市(维持) 食品饮料相对沪深 300 指数表现 相关报告 食品饮料 分析师：刘冉 登记编码：S0730516010001 《食品饮料行业点评报告：提振消费政策有望 持续催化板块行情》 2025-03-18 《食品饮料行业月报：食饮行情回暖，部分要 素价格节后回落》 2025-03-05 《食品饮料行业点评报告：供需正在趋于平 衡，原奶价格有望企稳》 2025-03-03 联系人：李智 本报告版权属于中原证券股份有限公司 www.ccnew.c ...

结构材料 分析师：唐俊男 登记编码：S0730519050003 tangjn@ccnew.com 021-50586738 业绩承压，关注行业产能出清情况 ——凯盛新能(600876)年报点评 证券研究报告-年报点评 增持(维持) 市场数据(2025-04-08) | 收盘价(元) | 8.70 | | --- | --- | | 一年内最高/最低(元) | 13.21/8.14 | | 沪深 300 指数 | 3,650.76 | | 市净率(倍) | 1.40 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 56.17 | | 基础数据(2024-12-31) | | | 每股净资产(元) | | 6.22 | | --- | --- | --- | | 每股经营现金流(元) | | -0.61 | | 毛利率(%) | | -4.35 | | 净资产收益率_摊薄(%) | | -15.18 | | 资产负债率(%) | | 64.45 | | 总股本/流通股(万股) | 64,567.50/64,567.50 | | | B 股/H 股(万股) | 0.00/25,000.00 | | 个股相对沪深 300 指数表现 ...

乘用车Ⅱ 分析师：龙羽洁 登记编码：S0730523120001 longyj@ccnew.com 0371-65585753 业绩实现高增，全球化智能化引领增长 ——长城汽车(601633)年报点评 证券研究报告-年报点评 增持(首次) 市场数据(2025-04-08) | 收盘价(元) | 22.95 | | --- | --- | | 一年内最高/最低(元) | 32.03/21.83 | | 沪深 300 指数 | 3,650.76 | | 市净率(倍) | 2.50 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 1,953.65 | | 基础数据(2024-12-31) | | | 每股净资产(元) | 9.19 | | 每股经营现金流(元) | 3.25 | | 毛利率(%) | 19.51 | | 净资产收益率_摊薄(%) | 16.07 | | 资产负债率(%) | 63.64 | | 总股本/流通股(万股) | 856,265.52/851,265.0 | | | 6 | B 股/H 股(万股) 0.00/231,877.60 个股相对沪深 300 指数表现 资料来源：中原证券研究所，聚源 相关报告 -11 ...

食品饮料 分析师：刘冉 登记编码：S0730516010001 liuran@ccnew.com 021-50586281 食饮行情回暖，要素价格延续回落态势 ——食品饮料行业 3 月月报 发布日期：2025 年 04 月 09 日 ⚫ 2025 年 3 月，食品饮料板块上涨 2.34%，板块连续两个月上涨。啤酒、白酒、 肉制品分别上涨 6.24%、2.68%和 2.08%，零食和调味品下跌 2.8%和 1.19%。同 期，沪深 300 下跌 0.07%，食品饮料板块跑赢大盘。2025 年 1 至 3 月，食饮板 块累计微涨：其中，白酒行情的持续性较好；零食、调味品回调；啤酒随着气 温升高有望持续表现。 证券研究报告-行业月报 同步大市(维持) 食品饮料相对沪深 300 指数表现 相关报告 《食品饮料行业点评报告：提振消费政策有望 持续催化板块行情》 2025-03-18 《食品饮料行业月报：食饮行情回暖，部分要 素价格节后回落》 2025-03-05 《食品饮料行业点评报告：供需正在趋于平 衡，原奶价格有望企稳》 2025-03-03 联系人：李智 本报告版权属于中原证券股份有限公司 www.ccnew.c ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected increase of over 15% relative to the CSI 300 index within the next six months [27]. Core Views - The company, AVIC Shenyang Aircraft Corporation (600760), reported a total revenue of 42.837 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 7.37%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 12.86% to 3.394 billion yuan [3][4]. - The fourth quarter saw a significant recovery in orders, leading to a substantial increase in performance, with a quarterly revenue of 17.54 billion yuan, up 51% year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.58 billion yuan, up 145% [4]. - The company is positioned as a key player in China's aviation industry, with ongoing demand for main models and new products gaining attention, suggesting strong growth potential [11]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company achieved a gross margin of 12.47%, an increase of 1.52 percentage points year-on-year, and a net profit margin of 7.97%, up 1.46 percentage points [7]. - The company’s operating cash flow was negative at -3.742 billion yuan, an improvement from -4.393 billion yuan in the previous year [3][12]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 2.6 yuan per 10 shares to all shareholders [3]. Business Segment Performance - The main subsidiary, Shenyang Aircraft Company, generated revenue of 41.34 billion yuan, down 8.8% year-on-year, while net profit increased by 12.7% to 3.34 billion yuan [5]. - Jihang Company reported a revenue of 1.52 billion yuan, a significant increase of 56.8%, with net profit soaring by 253% to 30 million yuan [5]. Future Outlook and Valuation - Revenue projections for 2025 to 2027 are estimated at 50.965 billion yuan, 58.610 billion yuan, and 65.654 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 4.063 billion yuan, 4.788 billion yuan, and 5.503 billion yuan [12][13]. - The company is expected to maintain a low valuation level historically, with a PE ratio projected to decrease from 28.49X in 2025 to 21.03X in 2027 [12].