国际市场表现 | 指数名称 | | 收盘 | 涨跌幅(%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 道琼斯 | | 30,772.79 | -0.67 | | 标普 | 500 | 3,801.78 | -0.45 | | 纳斯达克 | | 11,247.58 | -0.15 | | 德国 | DAX | 12,756.32 | -1.16 | | 富时 | 100 | 7,156.37 | -0.74 | | 日经 | 225 | 26,643.39 | 0.62 | | 恒生指数 | | 22,941.77 | -0.28 | 资料来源：Wind,中原证券 分析师：张刚 登记编码：S0730511010001 zhanggang@ccnew.com 021-50586990 晨会聚焦 证券研究报告-晨会聚焦 发布日期：2025 年 03 月 05 日 资料来源：Wind,中原证券 -15% -10% -5% 1% 6% 11% 16% 22% 2024.03 2024.07 2024.11 2025.03 上证指数 深证成指 | 国内市场表现 | | | | | | --- | --- ...

分析师：张刚 登记编码：S0730511010001 zhanggang@ccnew.com 021-50586990 军工半导体行业领涨 A 股小幅上行 ——市场分析 相关报告 《市场分析：电池医疗行业领涨 A 股震荡整 固》 2025-03-03 《市场分析：酿酒采掘行业领涨 A 股宽幅震 荡》 2025-02-28 《市场分析：电池消费行业领涨 A 股震荡整 ◼ A 股市场综述 周二（03 月 04 日）A 股市场低开高走、小幅震荡上行，早盘股指低 开后震荡上行，盘中股指在 3327 点附近遭遇阻力，午后股指维持震 荡，盘中航天航空、半导体、汽车零部件以及电子元件等行业表现 较好；电池、能源金属、煤炭以及酿酒等行业表现较弱，沪指全天 基本呈现小幅震荡上扬的运行特征。创业板市场周二震荡上扬，创 业板成分指数全天表现与主板市场基本同步。 ◼ 后市研判及投资建议 固》 2025-02-27 联系人： 李智 电话： 0371-65585629 证券研究报告-市场分析 发布日期：2025 年 03 月 04 日 投资要点： 周二 A 股市场低开高走、小幅震荡上行，早盘股指低开后震荡上 行，盘中股指在 3327 点 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Market Perform" for the light industry manufacturing sector [6]. Core Insights - The light industry manufacturing sector saw a 3.23% increase in February 2025, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.32 percentage points, ranking 17th among 30 primary industries [16][18]. - The report highlights a positive trend in the paper and home furnishing segments, with expectations for price increases in paper products due to rising raw material costs and improved market conditions in real estate [6][69]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Performance Review - The light industry manufacturing index outperformed the market, with a 3.23% increase in February 2025, compared to a 1.91% increase in the CSI 300 index [16]. - Most sub-sectors within light industry manufacturing experienced gains, with "Other Light Industry" leading at 13.10% [18]. - Over 65% of stocks in the sector rose, with notable performers including Qunxing Toys and Yazhen Home [21]. - The sector's PE (TTM) ratio stood at 30.10, indicating a valuation at the 41.42 percentile over the past decade [22]. 2. Key Industry Data Tracking 2.1. Paper Industry - The paper and paper products industry reported a cumulative revenue of 1,456.62 billion yuan in 2024, a 3.9% year-on-year increase [25]. - Prices for waste yellow board paper fell by 5.59% in February 2025, influenced by rising inventories and reduced demand [29]. - The price of imported needle and broadleaf pulps fluctuated, with needle pulp priced at 6,501 yuan/ton and broadleaf pulp at 4,792 yuan/ton as of February 28, 2025 [32]. - The average price for boxboard paper was 3,691 yuan/ton, down 2.24% from the previous month [36]. 2.2. Home Furnishing - The real estate market showed signs of recovery, with new residential sales area increasing by 4.46% year-on-year in December 2024 [74]. - The furniture manufacturing sector's revenue grew by 0.4% in 2024, but profit margins faced pressure, with total profits declining by 0.1% [79]. - The implementation of the "old-for-new" policy has positively impacted sales, with the building materials and home furnishing market showing a good start in 2025 [82].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected increase of over 15% relative to the CSI 300 index within the next six months [1][18]. Core Views - The company is projected to achieve a revenue of 47.426 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 14.32%. Operating profit is expected to reach 7.067 billion yuan, up 31.40% year-on-year, while net profit is forecasted at 6.082 billion yuan, a 26.99% increase year-on-year [3][8]. - The company benefits from a solid cost advantage in the light hydrocarbon sector, with new project capacities contributing to revenue growth. The production of multi-carbon alcohols and ethanol amines is set to enhance business scale and competitiveness [3][7]. - In Q4 2024, the company is expected to report a revenue of 15.151 billion yuan, a 42.87% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 2.389 billion yuan, reflecting a 71.13% year-on-year growth [7][8]. - The company has a robust pipeline of new projects scheduled for production from 2025 to 2027, which will further drive growth and enhance its competitive position in the market [8]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company reported a significant increase in Q4 2024 revenue and net profit, driven by improved product prices and new project contributions [7]. - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 and 2025 are 1.81 yuan and 2.06 yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 11.76 and 10.33 [8][9]. Market Position - The company operates primarily in the C3 and C2 industrial chains, focusing on propylene and ethylene production, benefiting from low raw material costs [3][8]. - The light hydrocarbon processing route offers a significant cost advantage compared to oil-based processes, supported by favorable tariff policies [7][8]. Future Growth - The company has a strong project reserve, with several key projects expected to come online in the coming years, providing a solid foundation for future growth [8].

分析师：张刚 登记编码：S0730511010001 zhanggang@ccnew.com 021-50586990 晨会聚焦 资料来源：聚源，中原证券研究所 -15% -10% -5% 1% 6% 11% 16% 22% 2024.03 2024.07 2024.11 2025.03 上证指数 深证成指 | 国内市场表现 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指数名称 | | 昨日收盘价 | 涨跌幅(%) | | 上证指数 | | 3,316.93 | -0.12 | | 深证成指 | | 10,649.59 | 0.36 | | 创业板指 | | 2,022.77 | -0.47 | | 沪深 | 300 | 3,888.47 | -0.04 | | 上证 | 50 | 2,443.97 | -0.52 | | 科创 | 50 | 891.46 | 0.14 | | 创业板 | 50 | 1,924.26 | -0.67 | | 中证 | 100 | 3,728.44 | 0.02 | | 中证 | 500 | 5,885.77 | 0.44 | | 中证 | 1000 ...

分析师：张刚 登记编码：S0730511010001 zhanggang@ccnew.com 021-50586990 电池医疗行业领涨 A 股震荡整固 ——市场分析 相关报告 《市场分析：酿酒采掘行业领涨 A 股宽幅震 荡》 2025-02-28 《市场分析：电池消费行业领涨 A 股震荡整 固》 2025-02-27 风险提示：海外超预期衰退，影响国内经济复苏进程；国内政 策及经济复苏进度不及预期；宏观经济超预期扰动；政策超预期 变化；国际关系变化带来经济环境变化；海外宏观流动性超预期 收紧；海外波动加剧。 本报告版权属于中原证券股份有限公司 www.ccnew.com 请阅读最后一页各项声明 第1页 / 共7页 《市场分析：汽车机器人行业领涨 A 股震荡 上行》 2025-02-27 联系人： 李智 电话： 0371-65585629 证券研究报告-市场分析 发布日期：2025 年 03 月 03 日 投资要点： ◼ A 股市场综述 周一（03 月 03 日）A 股市场冲高遇阻、小幅震荡整理，早盘股指高 开后震荡上行，盘中股指在 3349 点附近遭遇阻力，午后股指震荡回 落，盘中电池、能源金属、化学制品以 ...

食品饮料 liuran@ccnew.com 021-50586281 供需正在趋于平衡，原奶价格有望企稳 ——食品饮料行业点评报告 证券研究报告-行业点评报告 同步大市(维持) 食品饮料相对沪深 300 指数表现 相关报告 《食品饮料行业点评报告：春江水暖，底部遍 寻，食饮或迎拐点》 2025-02-27 《食品饮料行业月报：春节消费支撑有限，节 后板块下跌较多》 2025-02-11 《食品饮料行业深度分析：国内奢侈品及高档 白酒消费变化》 2025-02-07 联系人：李智 投资要点： 本报告版权属于中原证券股份有限公司 www.ccnew.com 请阅读最后一页各项声明 第1页 / 共6页 分析师：刘冉 登记编码：S0730516010001 根据农业部的监测数据：2024 年奶牛存栏量同比减少 4.5%，原奶 产量同比下降 2.8%。根据 2023 年的情况推算，2024 年的奶牛存栏 量为 630 万头，原奶产量为 4161.13 万吨。2024 年，奶牛存栏和 原奶产量双双减少，为原奶价格企稳创造了条件。我们预计原奶价 格年内有望企稳。 ⚫ 投资建议：原奶上游供需平衡有利于行业整体的发展，乳制品行 ...

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the resilience and potential of China's economy, highlighting the need to balance achievements with challenges, and the importance of transforming positive factors into tangible development results [8][5][4] Domestic Market Performance - The A-share market has shown volatility, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3,320.90, down 1.98%, and the Shenzhen Component Index at 10,611.24, down 2.89% [3] - The average P/E ratios for the Shanghai Composite and ChiNext are at 14.33 and 39.58 respectively, indicating a suitable environment for medium to long-term investments [9][10][12] Economic Indicators - China's official manufacturing PMI for February is reported at 50.2, up from 49.1, while the non-manufacturing PMI is at 50.4, indicating a slight improvement in economic activity [5][8] - The report notes a significant increase in the pet food production sector, with a 9.3% growth in 2024, despite a general decline in the industry [27] Industry Analysis - The new materials sector has outperformed the broader market, with a 12.12% increase in the new materials index compared to a 3.96% rise in the CSI 300 [14][16] - The semiconductor market continues to grow, with global sales reaching $56.97 billion in December 2024, a 17.1% year-on-year increase [15] - The electric equipment sector has also shown strong performance, with an 8.18% increase in the index, driven by advancements in robotics and steady growth in power grid construction [19][21] Investment Recommendations - The report maintains a "stronger than market" rating for the new materials and electric equipment sectors, suggesting that these industries will benefit from ongoing technological advancements and market demand [16][21] - Investors are advised to focus on structural opportunities in sectors such as consumption, mining, and small metals, while also considering defensive growth in technology and renewable energy [11][12][19]

分析师：张刚 登记编码：S0730511010001 zhanggang@ccnew.com 021-50586990 酿酒采掘行业领涨 A 股宽幅震荡 ——市场分析 相关报告 《市场分析：电池消费行业领涨 A 股震荡整 固》 2025-02-27 《市场分析：汽车机器人行业领涨 A 股震荡 上行》 2025-02-27 《市场分析：电子汽车行业领涨 A 股震荡整 理》 2025-02-25 联系人： 李智 电话： 0371-65585629 证券研究报告-市场分析 发布日期：2025 年 02 月 28 日 投资要点： ◼ A 股市场综述 周五（02 月 28 日）A 股市场低开低走、宽幅震荡，早盘股指低开后 震荡上行，盘中股指在 3381 点附近遭遇阻力，午后股指震荡回落， 盘中酿酒、采掘以及化肥等行业表现较好；通信设备、机器人、半 导体以及软件开发等行业表现较弱，沪指全天基本呈现宽幅震荡的 运行特征。创业板市场周五震荡回落，创业板成分指数全天表现弱 于主板市场。 ◼ 后市研判及投资建议 周五 A 股市场低开低走、宽幅震荡，早盘股指低开后震荡上行，盘 中股指在 3381 点附近遭遇阻力，午后股指震荡回落， ...

新材料 shily@ccnew.com 0371-86537085 AI+新材料推动行业创新发展，日本 EDP 公司开发出 30x30mm 金刚石单晶 ——新材料行业月报 证券研究报告-行业月报 强于大市(维持) 资料来源：中原证券研究所，聚源 相关报告 《新材料行业月报：中国团队研发钻石薄膜制 备新技术，力量钻石半导体高功率散热片金刚 石项目建成投产》 2025-01-20 《新材料行业年度策略：赋能制造业，把握国 产替代和自主创新机会》 2024-12-05 《新材料行业月报：商务部等四部门公布两用 物项出口管制清单，10 月中国新能源车零售 同比增长 56.7%》 2024-11-28 联系人：李智 投资要点： 风险提示：技术进展不及预期；上游原材料价格大幅波动；下游需求 不及预期；地缘政治因素影响。 本报告版权属于中原证券股份有限公司 www.ccnew.com 请阅读最后一页各项声明 第1页 / 共21页 发布日期：2025 年 02 月 28 日 分析师：石临源 登记编码：S0730525020001 新材料相对沪深 300 指数表现 -60% -50% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0 ...