Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the coal industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The coal industry is expected to benefit from a recovery in demand and price stabilization, with a focus on the coal-coke-steel value chain [4][5] - The report highlights the potential for price rebounds in coal and coke due to macroeconomic improvements and government policies aimed at boosting domestic demand [4][5] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Data Tracking - **Price Analysis**: The price of thermal coal has decreased, while coking coal prices remain stable. As of March 28, 2025, the Qinhuangdao Q5500 thermal coal price is 665 CNY/ton, down 6 CNY/ton (-0.89%) from the previous week [9][10] - **Supply and Demand Analysis**: There has been an increase in railway input volumes, with Qinhuangdao port's railway input rising by 7.44% to 524,000 tons [36][39] - **Inventory Analysis**: Total coal inventory at major ports has decreased, with southern ports showing a reduction of 2.21% [44][47] 2. Market Performance - The coal sector has outperformed the broader market, with a decline of only 0.1% compared to a 0.4% drop in the Shanghai Composite Index [59] 3. Recent Important Events - The report notes significant developments in the coal sector, including the initiation of a new round of coal mine auctions in India aimed at increasing production capacity [68]

证券研究报告 | 宏观专题 2025年3月28日 | | | ● 核心观点:2025年政府工作报告定调积极,1-2月一般公共预算支出处于历史高 位实现开门红,在此基础上,我们尝试构建省份财政跟踪框架,便于衡量财政数据 的重点任务进展。 · 2025年财政预算报告定调积极 证券分析师 张浩 资格编号: S0120524070001 邮箱:zhanghao3@tebon.com.cn 研究助理 连桐杉 邮箱:liants@tebon.com.cn 相关研究 · 2025年1-2月财政开门红 · 2025年财政主要任务及各省实施进度 请务必阔读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 ● 第一本账:财政收入增速目标设置较为严谨。2025年全国一般公共预算收入增长 0.1%,达2020年疫情外最低收入增速。整体来看,收入增速目标设置较为严谨。 ● 第二本账:对调动广义财政积极性有重要作用。2025年全国政府性基金预算收入 6.2万亿,增长 0.7%。三大逻辑贯穿财政第二本账:一是规模增加;二是支持范围 增加;三是政策效果增加。 ● 赤字率:隐含名义 GDP 增速可能在 5%左右。4%的赤字率对应的赤字为 5.66 万 亿,对应的 ...

Group 1: Overview of the Mar-a-Lago Accord - The "Mar-a-Lago Accord" aims to address the long-term overvaluation of the US dollar, which has led to economic imbalances in the US economy[2] - Proposed tools for a weaker dollar policy include multilateral currency agreements, replacing "century bonds," taxing foreign holdings of US debt, and actively accumulating foreign exchange reserves[2][11] - The concept of the dollar cycle indicates that the current phase is the latter half of the third dollar cycle, with the dollar expected to weaken post-2020, although it has shown strength since 2022[2][23] Group 2: Conditions for Dollar Weakness - A necessary condition for a weaker dollar is a weakening US economy coupled with the emergence of new global growth poles[2][25] - The political and social costs of intentionally weakening the economy may deter the implementation of the Mar-a-Lago Accord[2][26] - The ability of allies to coordinate currency policies is limited compared to the past, making it difficult to replicate the success of the Plaza Accord[2][28] Group 3: Challenges to Implementing the Accord - The "Mar-a-Lago Accord" faces significant challenges, including conflicts of interest with allies regarding tariffs and defense spending[2][39] - The US's focus on domestic issues may force European allies to pursue defense autonomy, complicating cooperation[2][46] - The potential for increased inflation and debt issues in the US could undermine the effectiveness of the proposed policies[2][51]

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 公司点评 三维化学(002469.SZ) 2025 年 03 月 28 日 买入（维持） 所属行业：建筑装饰/专业工程 当前价格(元)：8.94 证券分析师 王华炳 资格编号：S0120524100001 邮箱：wanghb3＠tebon.com.cn 市场表现 -29% 0% 29% 57% 86% 114% 143% 171% 2024-03 2024-07 2024-11 三维化学 沪深300 沪深300对比 1M 2M 3M 绝对涨幅(%) 15.87 20.99 17.74 相对涨幅(%) 16.90 18.74 19.45 资料来源：德邦研究所，聚源数据 相关研究 1.《三维化学（002469.SZ）：正丙醇涨 价带来弹性，新疆煤化工赋予机遇》， 2024.11.15 2.《三维化学（002469.SZ）：工程业务 履约进度放缓拖累业绩，拟中期分红 约 6500 万元》，2024.8.27 三维化学(002469.SZ)：全年业 绩符合预期，分红比例大幅提升 投资要点 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 事件：3 月 26 日，公司发布 2024 年 ...

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 公司点评 三维化学(002469.SZ) 2025 年 03 月 28 日 证券分析师 王华炳 资格编号：S0120524100001 邮箱：wanghb3＠tebon.com.cn 市场表现 -29% 0% 29% 57% 86% 114% 143% 171% 2024-03 2024-07 2024-11 三维化学 沪深300 买入（维持） 沪深300对比 1M 2M 3M 绝对涨幅(%) 15.87 20.99 17.74 相对涨幅(%) 16.90 18.74 19.45 资料来源：德邦研究所，聚源数据 所属行业：建筑装饰/专业工程 当前价格(元)：8.94 相关研究 1.《三维化学（002469.SZ）：正丙醇涨 价带来弹性，新疆煤化工赋予机遇》， 2024.11.15 2 / 4 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 2.《三维化学（002469.SZ）：工程业务 履约进度放缓拖累业绩，拟中期分红 约 6500 万元》，2024.8.27 三维化学(002469.SZ)：全年业 绩符合预期，分红比例大幅提升 投资要点 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [1]. Core Views - The company,卓越新能, is a pioneer in the industrial production of biodiesel in China, focusing on the integrated biomass energy layout and continuously increasing R&D investment [3][10]. - The biodiesel market is expected to maintain a tight balance in supply and demand, with a focus on raw material substitution and overcoming trade barriers [3][4]. - The company is expanding its overseas sales network and enhancing its product offerings in biobased materials, which is expected to bolster its competitive edge [3][4]. Summary by Sections 1. Integrated Biomass Energy Layout -卓越新能 is the largest producer of biodiesel in China, with a production capacity of approximately 500,000 tons as of June 2024, and a biobased materials capacity of 90,000 tons [3][14]. - The company has a strong focus on R&D, enhancing the value-added of its products and the utilization rate of waste oils [10][14]. 2. Tight Supply-Demand Balance in Biodiesel - The report highlights the ongoing tight balance in the biodiesel market, with a projected supply-demand gap of 350,000 tons in 2024, -120,000 tons in 2025, and 770,000 tons in 2026 [3][5]. - The company is expected to benefit from the rising price of waste oils as a raw material, which is becoming increasingly cost-effective compared to traditional vegetable oils [3][40]. 3. Overseas Channels and Biobased Materials -卓越新能 has established subsidiaries in Singapore and the Netherlands to enhance its global trading capabilities and mitigate the impact of trade barriers [3][4]. - The company is also expanding its biobased materials segment, with a new 50,000-ton natural fatty alcohol project expected to contribute significantly to profits [4][14]. 4. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 157 million, 634 million, and 792 million yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, reflecting significant growth rates [5][19]. - The report anticipates that the company's earnings per share (EPS) will reach 1.30, 5.28, and 6.60 yuan for the same years [5][19].

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 公司首次覆盖 卓越新能(688196.SH) 2025 年 03 月 27 日 买入（首次） 所属行业：基础化工/化学制品 当前价格(元)：46.32 证券分析师 王华炳 资格编号：S0120524100001 邮箱：wanghb3＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 王友舜 邮箱：wangys5＠tebon.com.cn 市场表现 投资要点 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 卓越新能：中国生物柴油工业化生产先驱。公司是我国第一家从事废油脂制备生物 柴油的技术研发并率先实现工业化生产的企业，围绕"生物质能化一体化"产业布局 持续加大科研投入，基于废弃油脂和生物柴油开发应用的产业链不断丰富，产品附 加值和废弃油脂的综合利用率不断提升。截至 2024 年 6 月，公司生物柴油产能规 模约 50 万吨，生物基材料产能规模达 9 万吨，生物柴油产量和出口量连续多年位 列国内同类企业前列。 生物柴油紧平衡格局延续，关注原料替代与贸易突围。酯基生物柴油是当前应用最 广泛的生物柴油类型，占比超 85%。原料替代方面，废弃油脂因其减排效益最优， 并不占用耕地面积，且欧美国家已 ...

2025 年 03 月 27 日 宏观点评 证券分析师 张浩 资格编号：S0120524070001 邮箱：zhanghao3＠tebon.com.cn [Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 宏观点评 研究助理 戴琨 邮箱：daikun＠tebon.com.cn 相关研究 政策传导显效，工企补库扩表 2025 年 1-2 月工业企业利润数据点评 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 核心观点：1-2 月份，规模以上工业企业营业收入继续改善，利润降幅较去年 1-12 月收窄。1-2 月工业企业呈现量仍强、价磨底、利润率再度转弱的盈利格局，当前 工企利润主要拖累在于利润率，虽然有春节等季节性因素的影响，但从绝对水平看 当前工企利润率仍位于 2019 年以来同期低位。不过库存周期和企业杠杆率均透露 积极信号，库存增速结束连续 3 个月的回落，工企负债增速进一步上行，后续随着 地产和消费对于经济形成的掣肘逐步减弱，政策发力是否能够带动内需明显回暖 是库存周期上行能否形成的关键，与此同时，伴随着企业微观杠杆率延续同比反 弹，企业端宽信用若能够进一步加力提效，企业加杠杆 ...

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 公司点评 神火股份(000933.SZ) 2025 年 03 月 26 日 买入（维持） 证券分析师 翟堃 资格编号：s0120523050002 邮箱：zhaikun＠tebon.com.cn 所属行业：有色金属/工业金属 当前价格(元)：18.77 高嘉麒 资格编号：S0120523070003 邮箱：gaojq＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 谢佶圆 邮箱：xiejy＠tebon.com.cn 市场表现 -34% -23% -11% 0% 11% 23% 34% 2024-03 2024-07 2024-11 神火股份 沪深300 | 沪深300对比 | 1M | 2M | 3M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对涨幅(%) | 10.14 | 7.46 | 19.34 | | 相对涨幅(%) | 9.97 | 4.87 | 20.68 | | 资料来源：德邦研究所，聚源数据 | | | | 相关研究 1.《神火股份：回购引导信心，盈利能 力或将改善》，2025.1.5 2.《神火股份：业绩符合预期，中期股 利加强投资回报》， ...

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 公司点评 神火股份(000933.SZ) 2025 年 03 月 26 日 资格编号：s0120523050002 邮箱：zhaikun＠tebon.com.cn 买入（维持） 所属行业：有色金属/工业金属 当前价格(元)：18.77 证券分析师 翟堃 高嘉麒 资格编号：S0120523070003 邮箱：gaojq＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 谢佶圆 邮箱：xiejy＠tebon.com.cn 市场表现 -34% -23% -11% 0% 11% 23% 34% 2024-03 2024-07 2024-11 神火股份 沪深300 | 沪深300对比 | 1M | 2M | 3M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对涨幅(%) | 10.14 | 7.46 | 19.34 | | 相对涨幅(%) | 9.97 | 4.87 | 20.68 | | 资料来源：德邦研究所，聚源数据 | | | | 相关研究 1.《神火股份：回购引导信心，盈利能 力或将改善》，2025.1.5 2.《神火股份：业绩符合预期，中期股 利加强投资回报》， ...