Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for the non-ferrous metals industry [2] Core Viewpoints - The recent adjustment in export tax rebate policies is expected to impact domestic aluminum exports significantly, with a potential reduction in price competitiveness for domestic products [6][5] - The policy change may lead to a narrowing of the price gap between domestic and international aluminum prices, with estimates suggesting a maximum adjustment of 1351 RMB per ton [7] - Despite short-term risks of price declines due to the policy changes, the report anticipates a gradual improvement in domestic demand, supporting a strong outlook for aluminum prices in the long term [8] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector has shown varying performance, with a notable decline of 22% from November 2023 to March 2024 compared to the CSI 300 index [3] Policy Changes - The Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation announced the cancellation of export tax rebates for aluminum and copper products, effective December 1, 2024 [4] - The volume of aluminum products affected by the rebate cancellation has been significant, with totals of 540.37 million tons in 2021, 612.60 million tons in 2022, and 523.67 million tons in 2023 [5] Price Impact - As of November 17, 2024, domestic aluminum prices have shown a decline, with Shanghai aluminum at 20,460 RMB per ton, reflecting a 1.63% drop, while London aluminum prices increased by 5.56% to 2,656.5 USD per ton [6] - The report projects that if the current trade levels are to be maintained, the domestic price may need to adjust downward while international prices may rise, leading to a more balanced market [7] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests several companies for investment, including Ming Tai Aluminum, Shenhuo Co., Yunnan Aluminum, China Hongqiao, Nanshan Aluminum, Tianshan Aluminum, and Lizhong Group, indicating a positive outlook for these firms despite short-term price risks [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the basic chemical industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the potential for price increases in chemical products and the development of coal chemical industry in Xinjiang as two main investment themes [1] - The supply-demand tightness combined with smooth pricing trends suggests that the price increase for propanol is likely to continue [5] - The report emphasizes that the leaf acid market is experiencing significant price increases, with expectations for this trend to exceed previous forecasts [6] - The coal chemical industry in Xinjiang is expected to benefit from substantial investments and policy support, positioning it as a key area for future growth [7][8] Summary by Sections 1. Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that recent policies aimed at boosting the economy, particularly in real estate and consumption, are expected to enhance demand for chemical products [31] - It suggests that the chemical industry is entering a new long-term prosperity cycle, driven by improved supply-side conditions and increased global market share [31][32] 2. Overall Performance of the Chemical Sector - The basic chemical industry index decreased by 3.6% during the week, underperforming compared to the Shanghai Composite Index and the ChiNext Index [36] - Year-to-date, the basic chemical industry index has declined by 1.9%, significantly lagging behind the broader market indices [36] 3. Individual Stock Performance in the Chemical Sector - Among 426 stocks in the basic chemical sector, 92 stocks rose while 332 fell during the week [43] - The top gainers included companies like Bofei Electric (+30.9%) and Jiaao Environmental Protection (+25.7%), while the largest decliners included companies like Bluefeng Biochemical (-25.9%) and Yanggu Huatai (-18.7%) [43] 4. Key News and Company Announcements - The report notes that 25 central enterprises are expected to invest approximately 939.57 billion yuan in Xinjiang's coal and chemical sectors by 2028 [4][8] - The price of propanol has increased by 13.7% week-on-week, indicating strong market demand [4] 5. Product Price and Price Difference Analysis - The report details significant price increases for various chemical products, with leaf acid prices rising by 22.2% [9] - It also highlights the price fluctuations of other chemicals, indicating a mixed performance across the sector [9] 6. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on core assets that are entering a long-term value zone, with companies like Baofeng Energy and Wanhua Chemical highlighted for potential recovery [10] - It also emphasizes the importance of supply constraints in certain chemical products, recommending companies like Zhejiang Medicine and New Harmony for their pricing power [10]

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告|行业周报 商贸零售 2024 年 11 月 17 日 商贸零售 优于大市（维持） 证券分析师 易丁依 资格编号：S0120523070004 邮箱：yidy＠tebon.com.cn 市场表现 -0.01 0 0.01 0.02 2023/1…2023/1…2023/1… 商贸 零售 沪深 300 资料来源：聚源数据，德邦研究所 相关研究 1.《中国中免：盈利能力略有下降， 静待客单价复苏》，2024.11.13 2.《——商社周报 11.10-大选落地后 关税担忧升级，出口链影响几何？》， 2024.11.10 3.《——商贸社服周专题 1103-为何 达播主导今年双十一？》，2024.11.3 4.《——商社周报 1026-宠物三季报 总结：板块延续高景气，双十一开售 数据亮眼》，2024.10.26 5.《——商贸社服周报 1020-双十一 首周总结：胶原成分爆发，品牌表现 分化》，2024.10.20 双十一总结：美妆赛道国货领先， 宠食赛道高景气度 ——商贸社服周专题 1117 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 周专题：2024 年双十一结束，平台端 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the non-ferrous metals sector [2]. Core Insights - The core insight of the report highlights the cancellation of export tax rebates for copper and aluminum products starting December 1, 2024, which may impact market dynamics [4]. - The report notes that the price of alumina remains strong, with a recent increase in average domestic prices [5]. Market Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector has shown a decline of 22% compared to the Shanghai Composite Index [3]. - Recent price movements indicate a downward trend in various metals, with copper and aluminum prices decreasing by 4.2% [5][57]. Key Data Points - As of November 15, 2024, the SHFE copper price is 73,860 CNY/ton, down 4.2% week-on-week, while LME copper is at 9,055 USD/ton, down 2.9% [57]. - The average price of domestic alumina is reported at 5,567 CNY/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 5.21% [5]. - The report indicates that the total capacity for electrolytic aluminum in China is 45.01 million tons, with an operating capacity of 43.76 million tons, resulting in a utilization rate of 97.45% [75]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a positive outlook for the non-ferrous metals sector, particularly in precious metals and industrial metals, with specific stock recommendations including Shandong Gold and Zijin Mining for gold and copper respectively [7]. - It emphasizes the potential for price recovery in industrial metals driven by policy support and economic expectations [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for the basic chemical industry [2] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that national policies are strongly promoting the future of coal chemical industry in Xinjiang, with significant investments expected to enhance energy security and support economic development in the region [4][6] - Xinjiang is projected to become a strategic resource base for the country, with coal production expected to increase significantly during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [5] - The report emphasizes the importance of local coal mining and conversion, suggesting that on-site transformation will become mainstream due to tightening approvals for new coal production capacities in other regions [5] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The basic chemical industry has shown a performance trend with fluctuations ranging from -34% to +26% compared to the CSI 300 index from November 2023 to July 2024 [3] Policy and Investment - A total of 183 projects have been signed with an expected investment of 939.57 billion yuan by 2028, focusing on coal, oil, gas, and renewable energy in Xinjiang [4][6] - Key projects include a 170 billion yuan coal-to-oil project and several coal chemical utilization projects, indicating a robust pipeline for coal chemical development in Xinjiang [6] Coal Production and Competitiveness - Xinjiang's coal resources are substantial, with an estimated 2.19 trillion tons of coal available, accounting for about 40% of the national total [5] - The report notes that Xinjiang's coal production has increased by 19.1% year-on-year in the first nine months of 2024, outpacing national growth [5] Recommended Companies - The report suggests focusing on companies involved in coal mining and chemical production in Xinjiang, including Guanghui Energy, Baofeng Energy, and Hubei Yihua, as well as engineering and service firms supporting Xinjiang's development [7][8]

证券分析师 [Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 行业点评 基础化工 2024 年 11 月 17 日 | --- | --- | --- | |------------------|----------------------------------|-------| | | | | | 基础化工 | 叶酸价格大幅上涨，本轮行情有望超 | | | | | | | 优于大市（维持） | 预期 | | [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 事件：据百川盈孚，11 月 15 日，叶酸主流接单价上涨 5-15 元/公斤至 205-215 元 /公斤，部分高位报价上调至 220-230 元/公斤。本轮涨价之前市场主流接单价在 172-176 元/公斤左右，前期市场库存量较低，叶酸经销商市场报价大幅提升。 点评： 叶酸用途相对刚性，下游需求稳定增长。叶酸（又称维生素 B9）是生物健康所必 须的水溶性维生素，对包括细胞生长和发育、DNA 合成和红细胞生成等多种功能 至关重要，需求具备相对刚性。从需求结构来看，饲料行业是叶酸最大的下游应用 领域，占比约 43%，2019-2023 年，我国饲料产量从 2.17 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the communication industry [2]. Core Insights - The report highlights the intensifying competition in the technology sector between the US and China, particularly in high-tech areas such as semiconductors and AI, with potential implications for investment strategies [29]. - It notes that China's commercial space industry is catching up, with significant advancements in satellite launches and reduced costs expected in the near future [30]. - The report emphasizes the continuous breakthroughs in domestic supply chains and the establishment of overseas operations by major Chinese tech companies [31]. Summary by Sections Investment Strategy - The report discusses the potential impact of Trump's re-election on US-China relations, particularly regarding technology sanctions and the focus on high-tech sectors like commercial space and AI [29]. - It mentions that SpaceX has launched 6,700 satellites, with over 4,700 currently operational, highlighting the US's lead in low Earth orbit satellite deployment [30]. - The report indicates that China's satellite internet construction is entering a phase of regular launches, with significant improvements in launch capabilities and cost reductions anticipated [30][31]. Industry News - The Long March 8 rocket has completed its transition exercises and is set for its first launch at the Hainan commercial launch site, which will enhance China's launch capabilities [33]. - China Satcom has introduced a satellite internet product aimed at the consumer market, significantly lowering the barrier for satellite communication access [34]. - The deployment of drone stations on communication towers in Anhui province has shown promising results, supporting the development of low-altitude economy infrastructure [35]. - The Zhuhai Airshow showcased various products supporting commercial space and low-altitude economy, indicating strong industry growth [38]. Weekly Review and Recommended Portfolio - The communication sector experienced a decline of 2.37% this week, with a focus on investment opportunities in domestic computing power, satellite internet, and low-altitude economy sectors [39]. - The report suggests monitoring companies involved in domestic computing power, satellite internet, and low-altitude economy for potential investment opportunities [43].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the power equipment industry [2] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the importance of overall market value enhancement opportunities and the improvement of fundamentals in the photovoltaic sector [2] - The photovoltaic industry has experienced a significant increase in new installations, with a total of 160.88 GW added in the first nine months of 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 24.77% [3][15] - The report highlights the decline in prices across the photovoltaic supply chain, indicating a phase of bottoming out [6][8] Summary by Sections 1. Domestic and International Demand Review and Outlook - In the first nine months of 2024, domestic photovoltaic installations maintained growth, with 20.89 GW added in September alone, marking a 32.38% year-on-year increase [3][15] - The total new power generation capacity added in China during the same period was 242.58 GW, with photovoltaic installations accounting for 66.32% of this total [3][15] 2. Supply Side: Capacity Growth and Profit Decline - The report notes that the capacity across various segments of the photovoltaic supply chain continues to grow, with polysilicon production increasing by approximately 60.6% year-on-year [6] - Prices across the supply chain have been declining, with significant drops in polysilicon and solar cell prices, indicating a potential bottoming phase [6][7] 3. Valuation: PB at Bottom, High Margin of Safety - The report states that the photovoltaic sector's price-to-book (PB) ratio is currently at 2.28, which is at the lower end of the historical range, suggesting a high margin of safety for investors [9] 4. Policy: Supply and Demand Efforts to Stabilize Fundamentals - The report discusses recent policy initiatives aimed at preventing "involution" and promoting healthy competition within the photovoltaic industry, which are expected to support the sector's recovery [9][10] 5. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading companies with relatively high earnings certainty, such as Sungrow Power Supply, Longi Green Energy, and Trina Solar, as well as companies in the inverter segment [10]

Group 1: Financial Data Overview - In October, M2 growth rebounded to 7.5%, an increase of 0.7 percentage points from the previous month[19] - M1 decreased by 6.1%, but the decline narrowed by 1.3 percentage points compared to the previous month[19] - New social financing in October was 1.4 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 448.3 billion yuan[15] Group 2: Loan and Financing Trends - New RMB loans in October amounted to 500 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 238.4 billion yuan[11] - Corporate short-term loans decreased by 190 billion yuan, while medium to long-term loans increased by 170 billion yuan, reflecting weak corporate financing demand[13] - Residential loans increased, with short-term loans up by 490 billion yuan and medium to long-term loans up by 1.1 trillion yuan, indicating improved housing market sentiment[12] Group 3: Debt Management and Economic Impact - The government debt net financing in October was 1.05 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 514.2 billion yuan, indicating limited growth in government financing[15] - Debt management policies are expected to support government investment expansion and improve corporate cash flow through debt replacement[17] - The upcoming 2 trillion yuan local government debt limit is anticipated to enhance local debt issuance and support M1 growth[21]

Group 1: Social Financing and Government Debt - In October, the new social financing scale was 1,395.8 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 448.3 billion CNY, with a growth rate of 7.80%, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous month[1] - Government bond financing decreased year-on-year due to the high base effect from last year's special refinancing bond issuance, with an increase of 1,049.6 billion CNY in October, down 514.2 billion CNY year-on-year[9] - The expected issuance of 2 trillion CNY for hidden debt replacement may begin at the end of the year, providing support for social financing[9] Group 2: Consumer and Corporate Lending - The credit balance growth rate for October fell by 0.1 percentage points to 8.00%, with a total increase of 500 billion CNY in new loans, down 238.4 billion CNY year-on-year[20] - Consumer lending showed signs of recovery, with short-term loans increasing by 49 billion CNY and medium to long-term loans increasing by 110 billion CNY, while corporate lending remained weak[20] - Corporate short-term and medium to long-term loans both underperformed seasonally, reflecting weak financing demand from enterprises[20] Group 3: Monetary Supply and Market Trends - M1 growth rate reversed its downward trend, rising to -6.10%, while M2 growth rate increased to 7.50%, up 0.7 percentage points from the previous month[30] - The M2-M1 growth rate difference narrowed for the first time since April, indicating a potential shift in monetary dynamics[30] - The increase in non-bank deposits and fiscal deposits contributed to the rise in M2 growth, reflecting a shift in asset allocation preferences towards capital markets[31] Group 4: Market Outlook and Risks - Despite positive changes in the monetary environment, social financing growth has not stabilized, indicating a lag in policy transmission to financial stability[35] - The central bank may further lower the reserve requirement ratio by 0.25-0.5 percentage points, depending on market liquidity conditions[35] - Risks include potential tightening of monetary policy beyond expectations and significant market volatility due to large-scale redemption of wealth management products[36]