Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the building materials industry [1] Core Views - The short-term economic downturn is causing the real estate chain to hover at the bottom, but the overall direction remains positive with expectations for recovery in the home improvement sector by Q3 2025 [3][4] - The cement market is experiencing a slight price decline, with a national average price of 387.7 RMB/ton, down 3.2 RMB/ton from last week, but up 29.7 RMB/ton year-on-year [3][19] - The report highlights the potential for recovery in demand for building materials, driven by government policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate market and boosting domestic consumption [15] Summary by Sections 1. Sector Overview - The building materials sector saw a decline of 2.14% this week, underperforming the CSI 300 index, which fell by 0.43% [3] - The report emphasizes the importance of low-valuation leading companies and expansion-oriented firms, recommending companies like Beixin Building Materials and SanKeTree [3][4] 2. Bulk Building Materials Fundamentals and High-Frequency Data 2.1 Cement - The national cement market price has decreased by 0.8% this week, with regional price fluctuations observed [18] - The average cement inventory level is at 61.7%, down 0.1 percentage points from last week, while the average shipment rate is 49.5%, up 2.1 percentage points week-on-week [27] - The report anticipates a weak and fluctuating price trend in the near future due to weak market demand [18][19] 2.2 Glass Fiber - The glass fiber industry is expected to see a gradual recovery in profitability, with demand in wind power and thermoplastics continuing to grow [12] - The report notes that leading companies are likely to benefit from structural advantages in product offerings [12] 2.3 Glass - The glass industry is currently facing a weak balance between supply and demand, with slow inventory depletion [13] - The report suggests that the profitability of the glass sector remains at a low point, but may improve with supply adjustments [14] 3. Industry Dynamics Tracking - The report discusses the impact of external uncertainties such as tariffs and trade tensions, which are expected to enhance domestic demand expectations [15] - It highlights the government's commitment to stabilizing the real estate market and the anticipated positive effects of new policies on home improvement consumption [15] 4. Weekly Market Review - The report provides a detailed analysis of price changes in the cement market, with specific regional price movements noted [20] - It also includes a summary of the performance of various companies within the building materials sector, emphasizing the potential for valuation recovery [16][17]

- The "Reclaiming Confidence 2.0" RCP factor is based on the behavioral finance concept of overconfidence bias, using the time gap between rapid price increases and decreases as a proxy variable to construct the first-generation CP factor. The second-generation RCP factor is derived by orthogonalizing the CP factor with intraday returns and using the residuals to account for potential overcorrections in price adjustments[7][8] - The RCP factor was further refined by replacing sorting values with standardized factor values to retain more factor information, resulting in improved performance after purification[8] - The RCP factor's performance from February 2014 to April 2025 includes an annualized return of 18.84%, annualized volatility of 7.71%, an IR of 2.44, a monthly win rate of 79.26%, and a maximum drawdown of 5.89%[2][8][11] - During April 2025, the RCP factor's 10-group long portfolio had a return of -1.62%, the short portfolio had a return of -2.45%, and the long-short hedged portfolio achieved a return of 0.84%[2][11]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is upgraded to "Accumulate" [8] Core Views - The company is expected to face profit pressure in 2024, with a projected net profit of 0.42 billion yuan, a decrease of 65% year-on-year [8] - The first quarter of 2025 shows a slight recovery in losses, with a net profit of -0.03 billion yuan, indicating a 110% decrease quarter-on-quarter but an 88% increase year-on-year [8] - The company’s revenue for 2024 is forecasted to be 2.67 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 23% [8] Financial Forecasts - Total revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: 2.175 billion yuan - 2024: 2.673 billion yuan - 2025: 2.828 billion yuan - 2026: 3.250 billion yuan - 2027: 3.736 billion yuan - Year-on-year growth rates for total revenue are projected at 74.39% for 2023, 22.91% for 2024, 5.81% for 2025, 14.92% for 2026, and 14.93% for 2027 [8][9] - The net profit forecast for the company is as follows: - 2024: 0.4229 billion yuan - 2025: 0.3290 billion yuan - 2026: 0.5212 billion yuan - 2027: 0.6842 billion yuan - Year-on-year changes in net profit are projected at 139.99% for 2023, -64.90% for 2024, -22.19% for 2025, 58.41% for 2026, and 31.27% for 2027 [8][9] Market Data - The closing price of the company's stock is 19.36 yuan, with a market capitalization of 2.12391 billion yuan [5] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to be 47.97 for 2024, 61.65 for 2025, 38.92 for 2026, and 29.65 for 2027 [8][9]

Quantitative Models and Construction 1. Model Name: RPV (Renewed Correlation of Price and Volume) - **Model Construction Idea**: The RPV factor integrates intraday and overnight price-volume correlations. It identifies the best representatives for intraday and overnight correlations, combining their information to enhance the factor's effectiveness. The model leverages the reversal and momentum effects in price-volume relationships, incorporating turnover data to strengthen these effects [6][7]. - **Model Construction Process**: - The RPV factor is derived by combining the intraday price-volume correlation (CCOIV) and the overnight price-volume correlation (COV). - Intraday correlations enhance reversal effects, while overnight correlations capture momentum effects through the "mismatch" in time dimensions, where "yesterday's volume" strengthens overnight returns. - These components are harmonized to serve a unified goal, resulting in the RPV factor [6]. - **Model Evaluation**: The RPV factor is described as "novel and effective," capable of capturing both reversal and momentum effects in price-volume relationships [6]. 2. Model Name: SRV (Smart Renewed Correlation of Price and Volume) - **Model Construction Idea**: The SRV factor refines the RPV factor by introducing "smart" metrics. It splits intraday price movements into morning and afternoon segments, identifying informed trading periods. It also replaces turnover with a higher-informed trading proportion for overnight correlations, combining the improved intraday and overnight factors [6][7]. - **Model Construction Process**: - Intraday price movements are divided into morning and afternoon segments. The "smart" metric identifies the top 20% most informed trading minutes in the afternoon (24 minutes). - The afternoon "smart" turnover rate is correlated with afternoon price movements. - For overnight correlations, the turnover rate is replaced with the turnover from the last 30 minutes of the previous day, which has a higher proportion of informed trading. - The improved intraday and overnight correlations are combined to form the SRV factor [6][7]. - **Model Evaluation**: The SRV factor is considered superior to the RPV factor, with better performance metrics and lower maximum drawdown [6][7]. --- Model Backtesting Results 1. RPV Model - **Annualized Return**: 14.97% - **Annualized Volatility**: 7.72% - **Information Ratio (IR)**: 1.94 - **Monthly Win Rate**: 73.33% - **Maximum Drawdown**: 10.63% [7][10] 2. SRV Model - **Annualized Return**: 17.84% - **Annualized Volatility**: 6.44% - **Information Ratio (IR)**: 2.77 - **Monthly Win Rate**: 76.30% - **Maximum Drawdown**: 3.74% [7][10] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction 1. Factor Name: RPV (Renewed Correlation of Price and Volume) - **Factor Construction Idea**: The RPV factor combines intraday and overnight price-volume correlations to capture reversal and momentum effects. It incorporates turnover data to enhance these effects [6][7]. - **Factor Construction Process**: - Intraday price-volume correlation (CCOIV) strengthens reversal effects. - Overnight price-volume correlation (COV) captures momentum effects through time-dimension mismatches. - These components are combined to form the RPV factor [6]. - **Factor Evaluation**: The RPV factor is described as "novel and effective," capable of leveraging both reversal and momentum effects [6]. 2. Factor Name: SRV (Smart Renewed Correlation of Price and Volume) - **Factor Construction Idea**: The SRV factor enhances the RPV factor by introducing "smart" metrics for intraday and overnight correlations, improving its ability to capture informed trading signals [6][7]. - **Factor Construction Process**: - Intraday price movements are split into morning and afternoon segments. - The "smart" metric identifies the top 20% most informed trading minutes in the afternoon. - The afternoon "smart" turnover rate is correlated with afternoon price movements. - For overnight correlations, the turnover rate is replaced with the turnover from the last 30 minutes of the previous day. - The improved intraday and overnight correlations are combined to form the SRV factor [6][7]. - **Factor Evaluation**: The SRV factor is considered superior to the RPV factor, with better performance metrics and lower maximum drawdown [6][7]. --- Factor Backtesting Results 1. RPV Factor - **Annualized Return**: 14.97% - **Annualized Volatility**: 7.72% - **Information Ratio (IR)**: 1.94 - **Monthly Win Rate**: 73.33% - **Maximum Drawdown**: 10.63% [7][10] 2. SRV Factor - **Annualized Return**: 17.84% - **Annualized Volatility**: 6.44% - **Information Ratio (IR)**: 2.77 - **Monthly Win Rate**: 76.30% - **Maximum Drawdown**: 3.74% [7][10]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company achieved a total revenue of 22.36 billion yuan in 2024, a slight decrease of 0.36% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 519 million yuan, down 44.13% year-on-year [7] - The Torch Project has effectively improved gross profit margins, with a gross margin of 33.17% in 2024, an increase of 0.62 percentage points [7] - The company continues to expand steadily, focusing on advantageous markets, with a total of 15,252 stores as of Q1 2025, a net increase of 1,703 stores in 2024 [7] Financial Forecasts and Valuation - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025 and 2026 has been adjusted to 9.31 billion yuan and 10.92 billion yuan, respectively, with an expected net profit of 12.56 billion yuan in 2027 [7] - The current price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) is projected to be 16/14/12 times for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [7] - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is expected to be 1.22 yuan in 2025, 1.44 yuan in 2026, and 1.65 yuan in 2027 [1][8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's performance in 2024 met expectations, with total revenue reaching 24.06 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.53%, and net profit attributable to shareholders at 1.53 billion yuan, up 8.26% year-on-year [7] - The company is focusing on refined management to continuously enhance profitability [1] - The first quarter of 2025 showed a slight revenue increase of 0.64% to 6.01 billion yuan, with net profit attributable to shareholders rising by 10.51% to 449 million yuan [7] Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue projections for the company are as follows: 2023A: 22.59 billion yuan, 2024A: 24.06 billion yuan, 2025E: 26.92 billion yuan, 2026E: 29.61 billion yuan, 2027E: 32.57 billion yuan [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to grow from 1.41 billion yuan in 2023A to 2.34 billion yuan in 2027E, reflecting a compound annual growth rate [1] - The company's earnings per share (EPS) is expected to increase from 1.16 yuan in 2023A to 1.93 yuan in 2027E [1] Operational Insights - The company achieved a sales gross margin of 40.12% in 2024, with a slight increase in net profit margin to 6.87% [7] - The total number of stores reached 14,694 by the first quarter of 2025, with a net increase of 1,434 stores in 2024 [7] - The company is focusing on regional expansion and improving operational efficiency, with a significant increase in non-pharmaceutical gross margins [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Hainan Airport is "Accumulate" (maintained) [1] Core Views - Hainan Airport plans to acquire a controlling stake in Meilan Airport through self-raised funds, aiming to establish itself as the air gateway for Hainan Free Trade Port [8] - The integration of Meilan Airport's revenue into Hainan Airport's financial statements is expected to enhance overall income from outbound passenger traffic [8] - The company is positioned to benefit from the growth in tourism and the favorable policies associated with the Hainan Free Trade Port [8] Financial Forecasts - Total revenue is projected to reach CNY 6,762 million in 2023, with a significant increase to CNY 8,799 million by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 9.38% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to decline to CNY 458.50 million in 2024, before recovering to CNY 1,372.90 million by 2027, indicating a strong rebound in profitability [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to grow from CNY 0.04 in 2024 to CNY 0.12 in 2027, showcasing an improving earnings trajectory [1] Market Data - The closing price of Hainan Airport's stock is CNY 3.51, with a market capitalization of CNY 40,102.84 million [5] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 87.47 in 2024 to 29.21 in 2027, indicating a more attractive valuation over time [1] Operational Insights - Hainan Airport is in a growth phase, with both Sanya Phoenix Airport and Haikou Meilan Airport undergoing capacity expansion, which is expected to drive future revenue growth [8] - The company aims to fully consolidate the revenues from three airports in Hainan, enhancing its market position and operational efficiency [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for future performance [1][8]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 356.33 million yuan for 2024, a decrease of 9.99% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 8.48 million yuan, down 72.73% year-on-year, which aligns with market expectations [2][8]. - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 30 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.17%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was a loss of 24 million yuan, which is a 20.08% increase in loss year-on-year, also meeting market expectations [2][8]. - The company aims to expand its "Digital Wind Tunnel" product market and focus on emerging safety scenarios, integrating its products with new industries such as robotics and intelligent driving [8]. Financial Summary - The total revenue forecast for 2025 is 484.23 million yuan, with a projected year-on-year growth of 35.90% [1][9]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to rise significantly to 65.14 million yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 667.95% [1][9]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be 0.64 yuan for 2025, increasing to 1.18 yuan by 2027 [1][9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the building materials industry [1] Core Views - The short-term economic downturn is causing the real estate chain to hover at the bottom, but the overall direction remains positive with expectations for recovery in the home improvement sector by Q3 2025 [3][4] - The cement market is experiencing a slight price decline, with the national average price at 387.7 RMB/ton, down 3.2 RMB/ton from last week but up 29.7 RMB/ton year-on-year [3][19] - The report highlights the potential for recovery in demand for building materials, driven by government policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate market and boosting domestic consumption [15] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The building materials sector saw a decline of 2.14% this week, underperforming the CSI 300 index, which fell by 0.43% [3] - The report emphasizes the importance of low-valuation leading companies and expansion-oriented firms as key investment targets [3][4] 2. Bulk Building Materials Fundamentals and High-Frequency Data 2.1 Cement - The national cement market price has decreased by 0.8% this week, with regional variations noted [18] - The average cement inventory level is at 61.7%, down 0.1 percentage points from last week [27] - The report anticipates a weak but stable price trend moving forward due to ongoing supply-demand adjustments [4][18] 2.2 Glass Fiber - The glass fiber industry is expected to see a gradual recovery in profitability, with demand from wind power and thermoplastics sectors continuing to grow [12] - The report suggests that leading companies may benefit from structural advantages and cost efficiencies [12] 2.3 Glass - The glass industry is currently facing a weak balance between supply and demand, with slow inventory depletion [13] - The report indicates that rising costs from petroleum coke may impact profitability, but leading companies are expected to maintain competitive advantages [14] 3. Industry Dynamics Tracking - The report notes that government policies are increasingly focused on stimulating domestic demand and stabilizing the real estate market, which is expected to positively impact the building materials sector [15] - The anticipated implementation of "old-for-new" policies in 2025 is expected to further boost demand for home improvement materials [15] 4. Weekly Market Review - The report provides a detailed analysis of price changes in the cement market, highlighting significant regional differences [20] - It also includes a summary of the performance of various building materials companies, emphasizing those with strong growth potential and competitive advantages [16][17]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company has achieved its national expansion strategy, significantly enhancing its regional market capabilities. It has completed strategic layouts in 16 key cities and covers over 100 cities across 26 provinces/municipalities, becoming the first private enterprise in the public construction sector to achieve nationwide coverage [8] - The company's revenue for 2024 is projected to be 3.39 billion yuan, representing an 8.3% year-on-year growth, while the net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to decline by 29.0% to 113.78 million yuan due to various factors affecting profit margins [8] - The company has consistently increased its cash dividend payout ratio since its listing in 2019, with a proposed total cash dividend of 64.08 million yuan for 2024, reflecting a 16.3 percentage point increase in the dividend payout ratio to 56.3% [8] Financial Forecasts and Valuation - Revenue and profit forecasts indicate a steady growth trajectory, with total revenue expected to reach 4.11 billion yuan by 2027, while net profit is projected to recover to 144 million yuan by the same year [1][9] - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be 0.63 yuan by 2027, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios decreasing from 19.43 in 2024 to 15.40 in 2027, indicating potential value appreciation [1][9] - The company maintains a strong financial position with a projected asset-liability ratio of around 39.63% by 2027, reflecting prudent financial management [9]