证券研究报告·海外公司点评·计算机 微软（MSFT） FY25Q3 业绩点评：业绩好于预期，继续看 好云业务快速增长 买入（维持） | Table_EPS] [盈利预测与估值 | FY2023A | FY2024A | FY2025E | FY2026E | FY2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万美元） | 211,915 | 245,122 | 278,960 | 314,772 | 355,067 | | 同比（%） | 6.88 | 15.67 | 13.80 | 12.84 | 12.80 | | 归母净利润（百万美元） | 72,361 | 88,136 | 99,117 | 117,414 | 135,259 | | 同比（%） | -0.52 | 21.80 | 12.46 | 18.46 | 15.20 | | EPS-最新摊薄（美元/股） | 9.73 | 11.86 | 13.33 | 15.79 | 18.19 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 44.72 | 36.71 | 32.65 | 27.56 | ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from domestic substitution and AI sequencing, leading to increased demand [1] - The company's revenue for 2024 is projected to be 3.013 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.48%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be -600.83 million yuan, indicating a reduction in losses [1] - The company has a strong competitive position as the only domestic and one of the few global full-product sequencing instrument manufacturers [1] Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is 2.911 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 31.19% [1] - For 2024, the revenue is expected to increase to 3.013 billion yuan, with a projected growth of 24.66% in 2025, reaching 3.756 billion yuan [1] - The net profit for 2024 is forecasted at -600.83 million yuan, improving to -170.21 million yuan in 2025, and turning positive in 2026 with a net profit of 100.09 million yuan [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to improve from -1.46 yuan in 2023 to -1.44 yuan in 2024, and then to -0.41 yuan in 2025 [1] Business Segment Performance - The gene sequencing instrument business is expected to maintain high growth, with revenue of 2.348 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 2.5% [1] - Domestic revenue for the gene sequencing instrument business is projected to be 1.607 billion yuan, reflecting an increase of 11.4%, while overseas revenue is expected to be 741 million yuan, a decrease of 12.7% [1] - The company has established nine global R&D centers and seven production bases, indicating a strong commitment to international expansion [1] Market Position and Strategy - The company has increased its market share in domestic sales of sequencing instruments to 63.8% in 2024, with a global market share of 28.2% [1] - The introduction of AI technology in products, such as the AIO intelligent control software, is expected to enhance sequencing efficiency and expand application scenarios [1] - The company is actively pursuing opportunities for domestic substitution, particularly as its main competitor, Illumina, faces limitations in the domestic market [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a stable revenue growth with a year-on-year increase of 1.6% in Q1 2025, achieving total revenue of 142.736 billion yuan. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 12.0% year-on-year to 2.636 billion yuan, indicating continued pressure on profitability due to declining gross margins [7] - The company has shown good expense control, with stable expense ratios across various categories. The comprehensive gross margin for Q1 2025 was 10.8%, down by 1.0 percentage points year-on-year [7] - New signed contracts decreased by 9.6% year-on-year to 299.3 billion yuan in Q1 2025, with notable performance in hydropower and wind power sectors, which saw increases of 20.2% and 67.3% respectively [7] - The company is expected to benefit from increased domestic investment in major water conservancy and hydropower infrastructure, as well as the ongoing expansion of its renewable energy investment and operation business [7] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 609.844 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 6.50%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 12.949 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 13.24% [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2023 is estimated at 0.75 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 6.28 [1] Revenue and Profit Forecast - Revenue is forecasted to grow to 634.552 billion yuan in 2024, 648.864 billion yuan in 2025, and 675.132 billion yuan in 2026, with corresponding net profits of 12.015 billion yuan, 12.490 billion yuan, and 13.220 billion yuan respectively [1][8] - The projected EPS for 2025 is 0.73 yuan, with a P/E ratio of 6.51 [1] Market Data - The closing price of the stock is 4.74 yuan, with a market capitalization of approximately 81.652 billion yuan [5] - The company has a price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.58 and a debt-to-asset ratio of 79.61% [6]

证券研究报告·公司点评报告·航空装备Ⅱ 2025 年 05 月 06 日 证券分析师 苏立赞 执业证书：S0600521110001 sulz@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 许牧 执业证书：S0600523060002 三角防务（300775） 2024 年报点评：募投项目稳定建设，国产大 飞机有望打开更大空间 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 2,271 | 1,590 | 2,299 | 2,622 | 4,003 | | 同比 | 21.05 | (30.02) | 44.63 | 14.07 | 52.64 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 747.01 | 380.05 | 571.53 | 697.12 | 974.29 | | 同比 | 19.58 | (49.12) | 50.38 | 21.97 | 39.76 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 1.36 | 0.69 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company experienced a decline in revenue and profit due to industry demand slowdown, with a focus on expanding into new fields such as nuclear power to find new growth points [7] - The company is increasing its R&D efforts to broaden its application in downstream sectors, including nuclear energy, new energy, and semiconductors, which are expected to contribute to future growth [7] Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 was 740.18 million, projected to decline to 523.44 million in 2024, with a year-on-year change of -29.28% [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders for 2023 was 88.85 million, expected to decrease to 60.71 million in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year decline of -31.66% [1] - The latest diluted EPS for 2023 was 0.82, projected to drop to 0.56 in 2024 [1] - The company’s revenue from titanium metal composite materials in 2024 is expected to be 370 million, down 18.4% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 23.6% [7] - The company’s total assets are projected to grow from 655 million in 2024 to 891 million by 2027 [8] - The company’s net profit is forecasted to be 58.43 million in 2025, with a growth of 11% expected in 2026 and 15% in 2027 [7]

◼ FY2025Q3 PBP、IC 和 MPC 业务均好于预期： 证券研究报告·海外公司点评·计算机 微软（MSFT） FY25Q3 业绩点评：业绩好于预期，继续看 好云业务快速增长 买入（维持） | Table_EPS] [盈利预测与估值 | FY2023A | FY2024A | FY2025E | FY2026E | FY2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万美元） | 211,915 | 245,122 | 278,960 | 314,772 | 355,067 | | 同比（%） | 6.88 | 15.67 | 13.80 | 12.84 | 12.80 | | 归母净利润（百万美元） | 72,361 | 88,136 | 99,117 | 117,414 | 135,259 | | 同比（%） | -0.52 | 21.80 | 12.46 | 18.46 | 15.20 | | EPS-最新摊薄（美元/股） | 9.73 | 11.86 | 13.33 | 15.79 | 18.19 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 1.59 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 30.02%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 380 million yuan, down 49.12% year-on-year [1][8] - The decline in revenue and profit is attributed to reduced product delivery quantities and amounts following a concentrated demand release in 2023, along with rising raw material costs and longer production cycles [8] - The company has made significant advancements in technology and product development, including breakthroughs in high-temperature alloy turbine disc forging technology and large-scale titanium alloy rotor systems for helicopters, enhancing its market position in high-end forgings [8] - Future growth is expected to be driven by continued investment in defense equipment, rapid development in aerospace and high-tech industries, and improvements in the company's technology, market, and management capabilities [8] Financial Summary - For 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 1.59 billion yuan, with a projected revenue increase to 2.30 billion yuan in 2025 and 2.62 billion yuan in 2026, reaching 4.00 billion yuan by 2027 [1][9] - The net profit forecast for 2025 is 572 million yuan, increasing to 697 million yuan in 2026 and 974 million yuan in 2027 [1][9] - The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to rise from 0.69 yuan in 2024 to 1.77 yuan in 2027, with corresponding P/E ratios decreasing from 35.76 to 13.95 over the same period [1][9] - The company's total assets are projected to grow from 91.52 billion yuan in 2024 to 158.87 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting ongoing investment in projects and construction [9]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a stable revenue growth with a year-on-year increase of 1.6% in Q1 2025, but the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 12.0% year-on-year [7] - The gross margin has come under pressure, declining by 1.0 percentage points to 10.8% [7] - The company is expected to benefit from increased domestic investment in major water conservancy and hydropower infrastructure, as well as the continuous expansion of its new energy investment and operation business [7] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved total revenue of 142.736 billion yuan and a net profit of 2.636 billion yuan [7] - The operating cash flow showed a net outflow of 40.519 billion yuan, which is an increase in outflow compared to the previous year [7] - The asset-liability ratio stood at 79.6%, reflecting a slight increase of 1.4 percentage points year-on-year [7] Order Intake - New contracts signed in Q1 2025 amounted to 299.3 billion yuan, a decrease of 9.6% year-on-year [7] - The energy and water resource sectors showed strong performance, with new contracts in hydropower and wind power increasing by 20.2% and 67.3% respectively [7] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2026 is 12.5 billion yuan and 13.2 billion yuan respectively, with a P/E ratio of 6.5 and 6.2 times [7] - The company is expected to maintain a "Buy" rating due to the formation of a second growth curve from its new energy investment and operation business [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company continues to face pressure on revenue and profit, with a notable decline in domestic business, while overseas new contracts remain strong [7] - The report highlights that the company achieved a total revenue of 249.283 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 6.2%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 6.025 billion yuan, down 19.5% year-on-year [7] - The report anticipates that fiscal policy support and improvements in financing will gradually manifest in investment and physical volume, with expectations for increased infrastructure investment and policy support in key regions [7] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q1 2025, the company reported a total revenue of 249.283 billion yuan, down 6.2% year-on-year, and a net profit of 6.025 billion yuan, down 19.5% year-on-year [7] - The gross margin remained stable at 8.5%, with a slight year-on-year decline of 0.1 percentage points [7] - The company’s financial expense ratio increased to 4.9%, primarily due to a rise in financial expenses [7] Business Segments - Revenue from various business segments in Q1 included: infrastructure construction (216.8 billion yuan, -8.0% YoY), design consulting (4.7 billion yuan, -2.2% YoY), equipment manufacturing (6.2 billion yuan, -5.8% YoY), real estate development (6.7 billion yuan, +59.5% YoY), and other businesses (14.9 billion yuan, +3.2% YoY) [7] - The report indicates that traditional infrastructure business is under pressure, but the share of higher-margin design consulting and real estate development has increased [7] Order Book and Future Outlook - The company signed new contracts worth 560.1 billion yuan in Q1, a decrease of 9.9% year-on-year, with significant contributions from overseas contracts [7] - The backlog of orders stood at 7,234.1 billion yuan at the end of Q1, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 16.0% [7] - The report projects net profits for 2025-2026 to be 28.0 billion yuan and 28.5 billion yuan respectively, with a new forecast for 2027 at 29.1 billion yuan [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company's performance in 2024 is under pressure, with total revenue of 3.173 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 11.65%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 228 million yuan, down 26.11% [2][3] - The decline in performance is attributed to product price fluctuations and market factors, leading to a decrease in gross margins for certain products [2] - The company has made significant product accumulations and technological breakthroughs in various fields, particularly in underwater electronic defense and special electronic industries, which are expected to support future business expansion [3] - Future development plans focus on ensuring quality and quantity in defense research and production, enhancing innovation resources, and expanding into electronic information industries [3] - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026, now expecting net profits of 295 million yuan and 367 million yuan respectively, with a new forecast for 2027 at 463 million yuan [3] Financial Summary - In 2024, the company reported total revenue of 3.173 billion yuan and a net profit of 228 million yuan, with significant increases in accounts receivable and inventory, indicating pressure on sales collection and inventory management [2] - The average return on equity decreased by 1.08 percentage points to 2.80% [2] - The company's earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is projected at 0.32 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 86.49 [1][10]