巨[Ta星ble农_Sto牧ckN（ameRptType] 603477） 公司点评 [Table_Title] 商品猪出栏规划逾 400 万头，养殖成本持续回落 | [T投a资ble评_R级an：k]买入（维持） | | | --- | --- | | 报告日期： | 2025-03-24 | | [收Ta盘bl价e_（Ba元se）Data] | 19.49 | | 近 12 个月最高/最低（元） | 37.49/15.48 | | | 同比上升 2 个百分点。 | | 总股本（百万股） | 510 | | 流通股本（百万股） | 510 | | 流通股比例（%） | 100 | | 总市值（亿元） | 99 | | 流通市值（亿元） | 99 | 主要观点： [T2a0b2le4_S年um实m现a归ry]母净利 5.19 亿元，同比扭亏为盈 公司公布年报：2024 年实现收入 60.8 亿元，同比增长 50.4%，实现归 母净利润 5.19 亿元，同比扭亏为盈；2024 年末，公司资产负债率 61.9%， 同比上升 2 个百分点。 2025 年商品猪计划出栏逾 400 万头，完全成本目标 13 元/公斤以 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - This week, the sentiment of both sellers and buyers in the market has generally recovered, with a significant decrease in the number of institutions holding bearish views. From February 24th to March 24th, the number of institutions with bullish views decreased to 3, those with bearish views decreased to 2, and those with neutral views increased to 14. Among them, 16% of institutions held bullish views, 74% held neutral views, and 10% held bearish views [2]. - The overall view of fixed - income buyers is neutral to bullish. Currently, 4 institutions are bullish and 18 are neutral. 18% of institutions hold bullish views, and 82% hold neutral views [3]. - The turnover rate of interest - rate bonds has decreased. There are positive arbitrage opportunities in the TS contract, the yield curve can still be steepened, and the inter - delivery spread of the TL contract is relatively low [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Seller and Buyer Markets 1.1 Seller Market Sentiment Index and Interest - Rate Bonds - This week, the tracked weighted index of seller sentiment was 0.12, with a neutral - to - bullish market view, up 0.16 from last week. Currently, institutions generally hold a neutral - to - bullish view, with 3 bullish, 14 neutral, and 2 bearish. 16% of institutions are bullish, 74% are neutral, and 10% are bearish [12]. 1.2 Buyer Market Sentiment Index and Interest - Rate Bonds - This week, the tracked buyer sentiment index was 0.17, with a neutral - to - bullish market view, up 0.17 from last week. Currently, institutions generally hold a neutral - to - bullish view, with 4 bullish and 18 neutral. 18% of institutions are bullish, and 82% are neutral [13]. 1.3 Credit Bonds - Market hot topics include changes in wealth - management scale and tight balance of funds. Wealth - management products still face certain pressure of funds flowing back to banks next week, which will disrupt the credit - bond market. The decline in fund interest rates drives down credit - bond interest rates [14][15][18]. 1.4 Convertible Bonds - This week, institutions generally hold a neutral - to - bullish view, with 2 bullish, 6 neutral, and 1 bearish. 22% of institutions are bullish, 67% are neutral, and 11% are bearish [21]. 2. Treasury Futures Tracking 2.1 Futures Trading - Except for a slight increase in the price of the TS contract, the prices of other futures contracts decreased. As of March 21st, the prices of the TS/TF/T/TL contracts were 102.36 yuan, 105.39 yuan, 107.42 yuan, and 115.09 yuan respectively, with changes of +0.01 yuan, - 0.11 yuan, - 0.16 yuan, and - 0.26 yuan from last Friday. - Except for a decrease in the position of the TL contract, the positions of other futures contracts increased. As of March 21st, the positions of the TS/TF/T/TL contracts were 95,000 lots, 145,000 lots, 176,000 lots, and 106,000 lots respectively. - Except for an increase in the trading volume of the TS contract, the trading volumes of other futures contracts decreased. As of March 21st, from a 5 - day moving average perspective, the trading volumes of the TS/TF/T/TL contracts were 87.7 billion yuan, 67.3 billion yuan, 95.2 billion yuan, and 162.4 billion yuan respectively. - Except for an increase in the trading - to - position ratio of the TS contract, the trading - to - position ratios of other futures contracts decreased. As of March 21st, from a 5 - day moving average perspective, the trading - to - position ratios of the TS/TF/T/TL contracts were 0.46, 0.47, 0.54, and 1.51 respectively [25][26]. 2.2 Spot Bond Trading - The turnover rate of 30 - year treasury bonds decreased. On March 21st, the turnover rate was 3.61%, down 0.44 percentage points from last Friday and 0.50 percentage points from Monday, with a weekly average turnover rate of 4.07%. The turnover rate of interest - rate bonds decreased. On March 21st, it was 0.97%, down 0.06 percentage points from last Friday and 0.12 percentage points from Monday. The turnover rate of 10 - year China Development Bank bonds increased, reaching 7.07% on March 21st, up 0.10 percentage points from last Friday and 0.07 percentage points from Monday [36]. 2.3 Basis Trading - The basis of the main contracts of treasury futures has narrowed. As of March 21st, the basis (CTD) of the TS/TF/T/TL main contracts was - 0.25 yuan, - 0.08 yuan, +0.14 yuan, and +0.20 yuan respectively. - In terms of net basis, the net basis of the TS contract narrowed, that of the T/TL contracts widened, and that of the TF contract remained unchanged. As of March 21st, the net basis (CTD) of the TS/TF/T/TL main contracts was - 0.09 yuan, - 0.10 yuan, - 0.06 yuan, and - 0.15 yuan respectively. - In terms of IRR, the IRR of the TS/TF contracts decreased, and that of the T/TL contracts increased. As of March 21st, the IRR (CTD) of the TS/TF/T/TL main contracts was 2.14%, 2.18%, 2.05%, and 2.22% respectively. The TS main contract's basis was negative this week, and the weekly average IRR was 2.22%, at a relatively high level. With the overall phased easing of the capital market this week, positive arbitrage strategies for the TS contract can be considered [43][44]. 2.4 Inter - Delivery and Inter - Product Spreads - The inter - delivery spreads have generally narrowed. As of March 21st, the near - to - far spreads of the TS/TF/T/TL contracts were - 0.04 yuan, - 0.02 yuan, +0.06 yuan, and - 0.13 yuan respectively. - In terms of inter - product spreads, the spreads of 2*TS - TF and 4*TS - T widened, while the others narrowed. As of March 21st, 2*TS - TF, 2*TF - T, 4*TS - T, and 3*T - TL were 99.32 yuan, 103.38 yuan, 302.01 yuan, and 207.19 yuan respectively. It is recommended to continue to focus on the strategy of going long on short - term and short on long - term to steepen the yield curve [54].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - On March 20, the company launched new portable projectors Play6e and Play6, which are expected to enhance domestic market share and profitability [5] - The Play6 series has been upgraded with better performance and pricing, which is anticipated to drive sales and improve margins [15] Summary by Relevant Sections - **Product Launch**: The new Play6e is priced at ¥1,799 (¥1,529 after national subsidy) and offers significant upgrades over its predecessor, including higher brightness and improved portability features [11] - **Competitive Advantage**: Compared to competitors, the Play6e has superior product capabilities and price performance, making it a strong contender in the entry-level portable projector market [7] - **Sales Growth**: The company’s online sales in February increased by 46% year-on-year, indicating a recovery in market share [15] - **Financial Forecast**: Projected revenues for 2024-2026 are ¥34.1 billion, ¥41.1 billion, and ¥48.1 billion respectively, with net profits expected to rise significantly in 2025 and 2026 [15][17] - **Market Position**: The company is expected to capture a larger share of the domestic market, with the Play6 series contributing significantly to sales and margin improvements [15]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company's product structure is continuously upgrading, leading the consumption upgrade trend within the province. The company is gradually exploring an expansion model through sample markets outside the province, steadily developing the surrounding Gansu northern market [9] - Revenue for Q4 2024 reached 693 million yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 31.1%. The total revenue for 2024 was 3.021 billion yuan, up 18.6% year-on-year [10] - The company has maintained a steady investment in expenses, with a net profit margin of 7.5% for Q4 2024, down 2.7 percentage points year-on-year [10] Revenue and Profitability - For Q4 2024, the company's revenue from products priced above 300 yuan, between 100-300 yuan, and below 100 yuan increased by 29.3%, 17.2%, and 23.8% year-on-year, respectively. The low-end segment performed well due to strong demand during the Spring Festival [10] - The gross profit margin for Q4 2024 was 50.13%, down 8.3 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to increased promotional expenses for low-end products [10] - The company expects to achieve total revenues of 3.288 billion, 3.608 billion, and 3.982 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 8.8%, 9.8%, and 10.4% [11] Market Performance - The company's sales cash collection for Q4 2024 increased by 27.4% year-on-year, indicating strong channel confidence [10] - The company has seen a net increase of 16 and 121 distributors in the province and outside the province, respectively, indicating a focus on refining the domestic market while expanding into Eastern China and surrounding Gansu northern markets [10]

舍得酒业（ [Table_StockNameRptType] 600702） 公司点评 | 调整加速，静待转机 | | --- | 1.舍得酒业 24Q3：主动调整，静待转 机 2024-10-29 2.舍得酒业 24Q2：静待市场修复 2024-08-23 3. 舍 得 酒 业 24Q1 ： 蓄 势 向 前 2024-04-30 ——舍得酒业 2024 年报点评 [Table_Rank] 投资评级：买入（维持） 报告日期： 2025-03-23 [Table_BaseData] 收盘价（元） 58.71 近 12 个月最高/最低（元） 86.25/39.56 总股本（百万股） 333 流通股本（百万股） 333 流通股比例（%） 99.85 总市值（亿元） 196 流通市值（亿元） 195 [公司价格与沪深 Table_Chart] 300 走势比较 -58% -36% -14% 9% 31% 3/24 6/24 9/24 12/24 舍得酒业 沪深300 [Table_Author] 分析师：邓欣 执业证书号：S0010524010001 邮箱：dengxin@hazq.com 联系人：郑少轩 执业证书号 ...

Investment Rating - Industry investment rating: Overweight [1] Core Insights - The USDA's March 2025 forecast indicates an increase in global wheat production to 797.23 million tons for the 2024/25 season, up 6.44 million tons from the previous year, with consumption also rising to 806.65 million tons [4][29] - Global corn production is projected to be 1.214 billion tons for 2024/25, a decrease of 13.92 million tons year-on-year, while consumption is expected to rise to 1.23919 billion tons [7][11] - The soybean market shows stable production at 421 million tons, with consumption increasing to 409 million tons, indicating a tightening supply-demand balance [4][5] Summary by Sections Corn - Global corn production for 2024/25 is forecasted at 1.214 billion tons, a decrease of 13.92 million tons from the previous year, while consumption is expected to increase by 20.22 million tons to 1.23919 billion tons [11][19] - The ending stock for corn is projected to be 288.94 million tons, down 25.01 million tons year-on-year, with a stock-to-use ratio of 20.3%, the lowest since the 2016/17 season [11][12] - In China, corn production is expected to reach 295 million tons, with imports decreasing to 8 million tons, reflecting a tightening domestic supply [19][21] Wheat - Global wheat production is expected to reach 797.23 million tons for 2024/25, an increase of 6.44 million tons from the previous year, with consumption rising to 806.65 million tons [29][30] - The ending stock for wheat is projected at 260.08 million tons, down 9.42 million tons year-on-year, with a stock-to-use ratio of 25.6% [29][31] - China's wheat imports are forecasted to decrease to 6.5 million tons, a drop of 1.5 million tons from the previous year [30] Soybeans - Global soybean production is forecasted to remain stable at 421 million tons, with consumption increasing to 409 million tons, indicating a tightening supply-demand balance [4][5] - The ending stock for soybeans is projected to be 121 million tons, reflecting a decrease in the stock-to-use ratio to 20.5% [4][5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's performance in Q4 2024 exceeded expectations, with revenue reaching 109 billion yuan (yoy +48.8%) and Non-GAAP net profit of 8.32 billion yuan (yoy +69.4%) [4] - The company has raised its 2025 automotive delivery target to 350,000 units, reflecting strong demand and improved production capacity [4][5] Summary by Sections Q4 2024 Performance - Overall performance: Revenue and profit both exceeded Bloomberg consensus expectations, with Q4 revenue at 109 billion yuan (yoy +48.8%), surpassing expectations by 4.4%; Non-GAAP net profit was 8.32 billion yuan (yoy +69.4%), exceeding expectations by 27.2% [4] - Business segments: 1. Mobile business: Revenue of 51.31 billion yuan (yoy +16.0%), gross margin at 12.0% [4] 2. IoT business: Revenue of 30.87 billion yuan (yoy +51.7%), gross margin at 20.5% [4] 3. Internet business: Revenue of 9.34 billion yuan (yoy +18.5%), gross margin at 76.5% [4] 4. Smart automotive and innovative business: Revenue of 16.7 billion yuan, gross margin at 20.4%, exceeding expectations [4] Automotive Business - Automotive sales and profitability significantly exceeded expectations, with nearly 70,000 vehicles delivered in Q4, surpassing the expected 60,000 [4] - The company has improved its automotive gross margin to 20.4%, up 3.3 percentage points from the previous quarter [4] - The company is focusing on enhancing automotive production capacity, with plans for a second factory to be operational mid-year [4] - The automotive business's adjusted net loss narrowed to 700 million yuan in Q4, down from previous quarters [4] Mobile Business - The average selling price (ASP) of mobile phones reached 1,202 yuan (yoy +10.1%), marking two consecutive quarters of double-digit growth [4] - Future targets include achieving a market share increase of 1% annually in China and breaking into the ultra-high-end market (above 6,000 yuan) within five years [4] IoT Business - The IoT business experienced over 50% year-on-year growth in Q4, driven by strong performance in home appliances and tablets [5] - The overseas market for IoT is expected to be twice the size of the domestic market, indicating significant growth potential [6] R&D and Future Projections - The company plans to invest 30 billion yuan in R&D in 2025, with approximately 25% allocated to AI-related projects [7] - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 492 billion yuan, 626 billion yuan, and 731 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding adjusted net profits of 38.3 billion yuan, 54.2 billion yuan, and 67.3 billion yuan [8][10]

| 总股本（百万股） | 1333 | | --- | --- | | 流通股本（百万股） | 1333 | | 流通股比例（%） | 100 | | 总市值（亿港元） | 30 | | 流通市值（亿港元） | 30 | [公司价格与恒生指数走势比较 Table_Chart] [Table_Author] 分析师：徐偲 朝云集团 [Table_StockNameRptType] （6601.HK） 公司点评 产品战略持续推进，高质量稳利润发展 | 投资评级：买入（维持） [Table_Rank] | | --- | | 报告日期： 2025-03-21 | | [Table_BaseData] 收盘价（港元） 2.29 | | 近 12 个月最高/最低（港元） 2.35/1.45 | 执业证书号：S0010523120001 邮箱：xucai@hazq.com 分析师：余倩莹 执业证书号：S0010524040004 邮箱：yuqianying@hazq.com [Table_CompanyReport] 相关报告 1. 家居护理基石稳固，宠物线下实体 门店服务业态助力高增长，高股息率 保障股东权益 2024 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's overall performance in Q4 2024 exceeded Bloomberg consensus expectations, with revenue reaching 109 billion yuan (yoy +48.8%) and Non-GAAP net profit of 8.32 billion yuan (yoy +69.4%) [4] - The company has raised its 2025 automotive delivery target to 350,000 units, reflecting strong demand and improved production capacity [4][5] - The smartphone business is showing significant progress in high-end market penetration, with the average selling price (ASP) reaching 1,202 yuan (yoy +10.1%) [4][5] Summary by Sections Q4 2024 Performance - Revenue was 109 billion yuan, exceeding expectations by 4.4% - Non-GAAP net profit was 8.32 billion yuan, exceeding expectations by 27.2% - Smartphone revenue was 51.31 billion yuan (yoy +16.0%), IoT revenue was 30.87 billion yuan (yoy +51.7%), internet services revenue was 9.34 billion yuan (yoy +18.5%), and innovative automotive revenue was 16.7 billion yuan [4] Automotive Business - Nearly 70,000 vehicles were delivered in Q4 2024, surpassing the expected 60,000 units - Automotive gross margin improved significantly to 20.4%, up 3.3 percentage points from the previous quarter - The company is focusing on enhancing automotive production capacity and has plans for a new factory to be operational by mid-year [4][5] Smartphone Business - The ASP for smartphones has shown double-digit growth for two consecutive quarters - The share of high-end smartphones (priced above 3,000 yuan) in the Chinese market has increased to 23.3% [4] IoT Business - The IoT segment experienced over 50% year-on-year growth in Q4 2024, driven by strong sales in home appliances and tablets - The overseas market for IoT is expected to be twice the size of the domestic market, indicating significant growth potential [5][6] Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 492 billion yuan, 626 billion yuan, and 731 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 34.5%, 27.3%, and 16.8% [8] - Adjusted net profit projections for the same years are 38.3 billion yuan, 54.2 billion yuan, and 67.3 billion yuan, with growth rates of 40.7%, 41.4%, and 24.3% [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is focused on continuous product strategy advancement, achieving high-quality and stable profit growth. It offers a one-stop platform for home care, personal care, and pet products, covering various segments with seven core brands [3][4] - In the first half of 2024, the company reported revenue of 1.249 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.3%, and a net profit of 176 million yuan, up 29.6% year-on-year. The offline channel grew by 12.2%, while online revenue increased by 10.7%, with new e-commerce channels experiencing a remarkable growth rate of 300% [3][4] - The company signed a strategic cooperation agreement with Yangnong Chemical, marking the start of its fourth five-year strategic partnership, aimed at enhancing product quality and expanding its pet store network [3][4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company achieved a revenue of 1.616 billion yuan in 2023, with projections of 1.813 billion yuan in 2024, 2.002 billion yuan in 2025, and 2.194 billion yuan in 2026, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 12% for 2024 and 10% for 2025 and 2026 [9][10] - The net profit for 2023 was 175 million yuan, expected to rise to 213 million yuan in 2024, 237 million yuan in 2025, and 262 million yuan in 2026, with growth rates of 22% for 2024 and 11% for the following years [9][10] - The company maintains a strong cash flow with cash and cash equivalents totaling 2.665 billion yuan [3] Product Strategy - The company has successfully launched several products that have gained popularity, such as the Super We mosquito repellent spray and the Weiwang pine wood orange fragrance toilet cleaner, both achieving top rankings on platforms like Douyin [4][6] - The company is actively enhancing its product offerings across various segments, including high-end natural home cleaning products and innovative pet food solutions [4][6] Market Position - The company is recognized as a leading platform in China for multi-category home care, personal care, and pet products, with a significant focus on expanding its offline pet store presence [7][9] - The strategic initiatives and product innovations are expected to drive the company's growth trajectory, establishing a second growth curve through the pet business [7][9]