消费金融政策出台,险资举牌银行再现 银行业周报 (2025.03.10-2025.03.16) 核心观点 行业周报 银行业 | | | 分析师 张一纬 ☎：010-8092-7617 z:zhangyiwei_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130519010001 研究助理 袁世麟 网: yuanshilin_yj@chinastock.com.cn 相对沪深 300 表现图 2025-03-14 资料来源:ifind. 中国银河证券研究 相关研究 www.chinastock.com.cn 证券研究报告 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明 2025 年 3 月 17 日 银行板块表现弱于市场:本周沪深 300 指数上涨 1.59%,银行板块上涨 ● 1.41%。国有行、股份行、城商行、农商行分别-0.35%、+2.69%、-0.91%、 +1.39%。个股方面,华夏银行（+5.99%）、宁波银行（+4.67%）、招商银行 (+3.65%）、浦发银行 (+2.76%)、常熟银行（+2.74%）涨幅居前。截至 3 月 14 日，银行板块 PB 为 0.66 倍， ...

宏观研究报告 如何看待提振消费专项行动, 2025年3月17日 分析师 张迪 聂天奇 ☎： 010-8092-7737 网: nietianqi_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130524090001 赵红蕾 ☎: 010-8092-7737 网: zhangdi_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130524060001 ☎: 010-8092-7606 网: zhaohonglei_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130524060005 日電 ☎： 010-8092-7780 z: lvlei _yj @chinastock.com.cn 2025年3月16日,《提振消费专项行动方案》发布。结合中央经济工作 会议和政府工作报告关于惠民生、促消费的相关表述,我们认为本轮一揽 子提振消费举措可以视作宏观政策的一个重要里程碑。本轮逆周期政策调 节过程中，由于地产和基建具有高杠杆属性,相关政策仍比较克制,而消 费则被寄予厚望,促消费政策具有高层级、全方位、重需求和出实招四大 特征。当然，部分政策目前看仍留有余力, 17 日 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, CITIC Special Steel [3] Core Views - CITIC Special Steel is positioned as a leading player in the special steel industry, with a robust product portfolio that meets the evolving demands of various sectors, including energy and automotive [6][10] - The company has demonstrated resilience in its financial performance, with a focus on high-temperature corrosion-resistant alloys and high-strength steel products, which are expected to see significant sales growth [6][10] - The report highlights the company's strategic initiatives in digital transformation and cost reduction, which are anticipated to enhance operational efficiency and profitability [6][10] Financial Performance Summary - The projected revenue for CITIC Special Steel is expected to be 114,018.80 million in 2023, with a slight decline to 112,254.93 million in 2024, followed by a recovery to 116,879.83 million in 2025 and 122,999.66 million in 2026 [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 5,721.19 million in 2023, decreasing to 5,191.47 million in 2024, before rebounding to 5,754.78 million in 2025 and reaching 6,503.84 million in 2026 [2] - The report indicates a sales gross margin of 13.14% in 2023, with a slight improvement expected in subsequent years [18] Product and Market Positioning - CITIC Special Steel offers over 3,000 types of products and more than 5,000 specifications, catering to diverse applications in automotive manufacturing, energy, and machinery [13][46] - The company has a strong focus on high-end special steel products, which are critical for various industries, including renewable energy and automotive [6][10] - The report emphasizes the company's commitment to quality control and technological innovation, which positions it favorably against international competitors [6][10] Strategic Initiatives - The company is actively pursuing digital transformation, investing over 1 billion annually to enhance operational efficiency and reduce costs [6][10] - CITIC Special Steel is expanding its market presence, particularly in overseas markets, to capitalize on the growing demand for high-performance steel products [6][10] - The report notes the company's strategic partnerships and collaborations that enhance its competitive edge in the special steel sector [6][10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the chemical industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The chemical industry is experiencing weak fluctuations in chemical prices, but there are structural opportunities to be seized [1] - The report highlights that the valuation of the basic chemical industry is at a relatively low level since 2014, indicating medium to long-term allocation value [3][4] - It emphasizes the potential for demand recovery in 2025 as policy stimulus effects gradually manifest and terminal industry momentum strengthens [3][4] Summary by Sections Oil Market - As of March 14, Brent and WTI oil prices reached $70.58/barrel and $67.18/barrel, respectively, with a slight increase of 0.31% and 0.21% compared to the previous week [7][9] - Year-to-date, Brent and WTI prices have decreased by 5.44% and 6.33% respectively [9] Inventory Conversion - The average inventory conversion loss for crude oil this week was -355 yuan/ton, while for propane, it was -237 yuan/ton [14] Price Changes - In the week, 43 out of 170 tracked chemical products saw price increases, accounting for 25.3%, while 76 products decreased, making up 44.7% [18] - Notable price increases were observed in products like diammonium phosphate (up 3.7%) and calcium carbide (up 2.8%) [19] Price Spread Changes - Among 130 tracked products, 41 price spreads increased, representing 31.5%, while 84 decreased, accounting for 64.6% [26] - The price spread for phthalic anhydride increased by 156.5% due to supply reductions and cost support from neighboring xylene prices [26][27]

行业周报 · 有色金属行业 锡矿供应再出扰动, 金价涨破 3000 美元 有色金属行业周报 2025年3月17日 网：huali@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码: S0130516080004 阎予露 ☎：010-80927659 核心观点 有色金属行业 | | | 分析师 华立 ☎：021-20252629 证券研究报告 0: yanyulu @chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130522040004 研究助理:孙雪琪 相对沪深 300 表现图 2025-3-16 沪深300 资料来源:中国银河证券研究院 相关研究 【银河有色】行业周报_有色消费旺季来临,刚果 (金) 暂停钻出口 20250302 www.chinastock.com.cn 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明 市场行情回顾:截止到3月14日周五收市:本周上证指数+1.39%,报 3419.56 ● 点; 沪深 300 指数+1.59%，报 4006.56点; SW 有色金属行业指数+3.56%, 报 4975.62点。分子行业来看,本周有色金属行业 5 个二级子行业中,工业金 属 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the textile and apparel industry [1]. Core Insights - The implementation of nationwide fertility subsidy policies is expected to encourage childbirth, addressing the declining birth rate in China since 2016 [5]. - The number of newborns in China has decreased from 18.83 million in 2016 to 9.54 million in 2024, a decline of 49.3%. However, a slight increase of 525,000 newborns is projected for 2024 compared to 2023, influenced by the introduction of fertility support policies and the Year of the Dragon [5]. - The children's clothing market is anticipated to benefit from the rebound in newborn numbers, with the market size reaching 252.57 billion yuan in 2023, showing a CAGR of 4.43% from 2020 to 2023 [5]. - The market share of leading brands in children's clothing is increasing, with the CR3, CR5, and CR10 market shares at 8.6%, 11.0%, and 13.9% respectively in 2023, indicating a trend towards brand concentration [5]. - The report highlights the growth potential of sports children's clothing, with Anta's market share increasing from 1.2% in 2018 to 1.9% in 2023, suggesting a strong development trajectory for this segment [5]. Summary by Sections Fertility Support Policies - The establishment of a national fertility subsidy system aims to alleviate the pressure of declining birth rates, with various regions implementing differentiated child-rearing subsidy policies [5]. - As of now, 18 provinces and municipalities have introduced related policies, with significant support measures in places like Hohhot, Inner Mongolia [5]. Market Trends - The decline in newborns has impacted the children's clothing market, but the expected stabilization and increase in newborn numbers could lead to market expansion [5]. - The children's clothing market experienced rapid growth from 2015 to 2019, with a market size of 239.15 billion yuan in 2019 and a CAGR of 14.3% during that period [5]. Brand Dynamics - The children's clothing market is seeing a shift towards higher quality and health standards, leading to increased market share for stronger brands [5]. - The report suggests that sports children's clothing will be a core driver of long-term growth in the industry [5]. Investment Recommendations - Companies to watch include Semir Fashion, Taiping Bird, Hailan Home, and Jiaman Clothing for casual children's clothing, and Anta Sports, Xtep International, Li Ning, and 361 Degrees for outdoor and sports segments [5].

行业月度报告 · 房地产行业 销售降幅显著修复,投资降幅收窄 2月房地产行业月报 2025 年 3 月 17 日 房地产行业 推荐 维持评级 分析师 胡孝宇 0: huxiaoyu_yj @chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130523070001 相对沪深 300 表现图 2025-3-17 40% 20% 0% -20% 相关研究 1. 【银河地产】行业月报_房地产行业_单月销售金 额正增长,单月均价同比提升 2. 【银河地产】行业月报_房地产行业_一线城市商 品住宅价格环比止跌 3. 【银河地产】行业月报_房地产行业_单月销售面 积同比转正,政策效果逐渐显现 4. 【银河地产】行业月报_房地产行业_销售均价环 比提升,开工降幅扩大 www.chinastock.com.cn 证券研究报告 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明 销售:销售累计同比降幅明显收缩。2025年1-2月全国商品房销售面积 10746 0 万方,同比下降 5.10%,降幅较 2024 年全年收窄 7.8pct。2025 年 1-2 月全 国商品房销售额 10259 亿元,同比下降 2.60%,降 ...

公司点评报告 ·汽车行业 智驾业务蓬勃发展,国际化布局提速 2024 年年报业绩点评 2025 年 3 月 17 日 核心观点 国际化发展潜力十足,全球化开拓取得亮眼成绩,西班牙工厂 2026年投 ● 产深化智能化出海:2024年公司通过全方位推进国际化布局在全球市场取得 亮眼成绩，目前公司已获得 TATA MOTORS、VOLKSWAGEN、MAZDA、 STELLANTIS、SEAT、TOYOTA 、SKODA、VOLVO、FORD、AUDI、LEXUS、 SUZUKI 等国际知名车企的新项目订单,并成功突破白点客户 HONDA。2024 年公司境外收入仅为 17.08亿元,同比+3.89%,公司 2024年海外订单规模超 过 50 亿元,同比增幅超过 120%,国际化发展潜力十足。产能出海方面,公 司西班牙智能工厂已开工建设,预计 2025年底竣工,2026年开始向客户供应 智能座舱、智能驾驶等一系列智能化产品。全球化客户拓展叠加产能出海持续 石金漫 ☎：010-80927689 网: shijinman_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130522030002 研究助理 ...

2025 年 3 月 18 日 银河观点集萃 责任编辑 周颖 ☎：010-80927635 网:zhouying_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130511090001 噢闻 1-2 月份,社会消费品零售总额 83731 亿元, 同比增长 4.0% 每日晨报 www.chinastock.com.cn 证券研究报告 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明 宏观:今年的开门红有哪些不同?——1-2 月份经济数据分析。如我们前期报 ● 告所述,2025年中国要以确定性拥抱不确定性,内需的恢复更加关键,尤其 是消费和基建的表现更加重要。首先,以旧换新政策扩围加码带动下,年初消 费表现良好,除汽车外的社零增速回升至 4.8%;其次,年初化债资金提速发 行,地方政府"手有余粮",存量项目资金拨付有所改善,基建增速好于市场 预期。其三,高技术制造业投资在高基数基础上继续维持高速增长,新质生产 力相关行业资本开支保持高景气度。全年来看,经济叙事有望呈现"消费稳当 下、科技赢未来"的局面,一揽子政策下,上半年经济韧性可能较去年更强。 华润三九(000999.SZ):中医药健康引领 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Li Auto (stock code: 2015.HK) [1][4][5] Core Views - Li Auto achieved a revenue of 144.46 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 16.64%, but net profit decreased by 31.37% to 8.03 billion yuan [4][6] - In Q4 2024, the company reported a revenue of 44.27 billion yuan, up 6.09% year-on-year, and a net profit of 3.52 billion yuan, down 37.74% year-on-year [4] - The company delivered 500,500 vehicles in 2024, a 33.10% increase year-on-year, with Q4 deliveries reaching 158,700 units, a 20.40% increase year-on-year [4][5] - The average selling price (ASP) of vehicles decreased by 13.48% year-on-year to 276,800 yuan in 2024, primarily due to the increased sales of lower-priced models [4][5] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue and Profit Forecasts: - 2025E: Revenue of 186.90 billion yuan, net profit of 11.49 billion yuan, EPS of 5.41 yuan [6][8] - 2026E: Revenue of 235.39 billion yuan, net profit of 15.40 billion yuan, EPS of 7.26 yuan [6][8] - 2027E: Revenue of 276.45 billion yuan, net profit of 19.11 billion yuan, EPS of 9.01 yuan [6][8] - Key Financial Ratios: - 2024: Gross margin at 20.53%, net profit margin at 5.56% [8] - 2025E: Gross margin expected to decrease to 19.86% [8] - 2024 R&D expense ratio at 7.66%, with a focus on maintaining cost control [4][6] Strategic Initiatives - The launch of new electric models, including the i8 and i6, is expected to enhance market competitiveness and drive sales growth [4][5] - The company is expanding its charging infrastructure, with plans to increase the number of charging stations to 4,000 by the end of 2025 [4][5] - Li Auto is focusing on international market expansion, establishing a presence in Central Asia and planning to enter markets in the Middle East, Latin America, and Asia-Pacific [4][5]