公司首次覆盖 · 北交所 光学+特种玻璃双轮驱动,熔炼与成型工艺精湛 戈碧迦（835438.BJ）公司首次覆盖 2025 年 03 月 16 日 | 主要财务指标预测 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | 营业收入(百万元) | 808.34 | 566.49 | 736.12 | 926.89 | | 收入增速(%) | 88.26 | -29.92 | 29.94 | 25.92 | | 归母净利润(百万元) | 104.21 | 70.99 | 86.95 | 109.89 | | 利润增速(%) | 127.37 | -31.88 | 22.48 | 26.38 | | 毛利率(%) | 29.82 | 28.53 | 27.83 | 28.19 | | 摊薄 EPS(元) | 0.74 | 0.50 | 0.62 | 0.78 | | PE | 30.77 | 45.17 | 36.88 | 29.18 | | PB | 4.71 | 3.40 | 3.11 | 2.81 | | ...

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods - **Model Name**: CSI 1000 Enhanced Index Fund **Model Construction Idea**: This model aims to generate excess returns over the CSI 1000 Index by leveraging quantitative strategies and factor-based enhancements [3][4] **Model Evaluation**: The model demonstrated strong performance this week, with a median excess return of 0.31%, outperforming other enhanced index funds [3][4] - **Model Name**: CSI 500 Enhanced Index Fund **Model Construction Idea**: This model focuses on outperforming the CSI 500 Index through quantitative enhancements and systematic strategies [3][4] **Model Evaluation**: The model showed moderate performance this week, with a median excess return of 0.20% [3][4] - **Model Name**: CSI 300 Enhanced Index Fund **Model Construction Idea**: This model targets excess returns over the CSI 300 Index by employing quantitative techniques and factor-based strategies [3][4] **Model Evaluation**: The model achieved a median excess return of 0.05% this week, indicating relatively weaker performance compared to other enhanced index funds [3][4] - **Model Name**: Absolute Return (Hedged) Fund **Model Construction Idea**: This model aims to deliver absolute returns through hedging strategies and risk management techniques [8][9] **Model Evaluation**: The model achieved a median return of 0.03% this week, reflecting stable but modest performance [8][9] - **Model Name**: Active Quantitative Fund **Model Construction Idea**: This model employs active quantitative strategies to outperform broader market indices [8][9] **Model Evaluation**: The model demonstrated strong performance this week, with a median return of 1.49% [8][9] - **Model Name**: Multi-Factor Fund **Model Construction Idea**: This model integrates multiple quantitative factors to enhance portfolio returns and manage risks systematically [17][23] **Model Evaluation**: The model achieved a median return of 1.73% this week, showcasing robust performance among factor-based strategies [17][23] - **Model Name**: Big Data-Driven Active Investment Fund **Model Construction Idea**: This model leverages big data analytics to identify investment opportunities and optimize portfolio allocation [17][24] **Model Evaluation**: The model delivered a median return of 1.62% this week, reflecting strong performance driven by data-driven insights [17][24] Model Backtesting Results - **CSI 1000 Enhanced Index Fund**: Weekly median excess return: 0.31%, Monthly median excess return: 0.09%, Quarterly median excess return: -0.20%, Annual median excess return: -0.20% [4][5][7] - **CSI 500 Enhanced Index Fund**: Weekly median excess return: 0.20%, Monthly median excess return: 0.20%, Quarterly median excess return: -0.62%, Annual median excess return: -0.62% [4][5][7] - **CSI 300 Enhanced Index Fund**: Weekly median excess return: 0.05%, Monthly median excess return: -0.01%, Quarterly median excess return: 0.43%, Annual median excess return: 0.43% [4][5][7] - **Absolute Return (Hedged) Fund**: Weekly median return: 0.03%, Monthly median return: 0.34%, Quarterly median return: 0.10%, Annual median return: 0.10% [8][9] - **Active Quantitative Fund**: Weekly median return: 1.49%, Monthly median return: 3.59%, Quarterly median return: 6.03%, Annual median return: 6.03% [8][9] - **Multi-Factor Fund**: Weekly median return: 1.73%, Monthly median return: 4.40%, Quarterly median return: 8.19%, Annual median return: 8.19% [17][23] - **Big Data-Driven Active Investment Fund**: Weekly median return: 1.62%, Monthly median return: 4.12%, Quarterly median return: 8.40%, Annual median return: 8.40% [17][24]

公司深度报告 · 医药行业 中医药健康引领者,长期发展韧性 2025年3月14日 华润三九(000999.SZ) 推荐 首次评级 分析师 程培 ☎：021-2025-7805 | 市场数据 | 2025-03-14 | | --- | --- | | 股票代码 | 000999.SZ | | A 股收盘价(元) | 41.90 | | 上证指数 | 3419.56 | | 总股本 | 128429.87 | | 实际流通 A 股(万股) | 127565.21 | | 流通 A 股市值(乙元) | 534.50 | 2023-03-14 相对沪深 300 表现图 资料来源:中国银河证券研究院 相关研究 www.chinastock.com.cn 证券研究报告 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明 ● 事件: 华润三九发布 2024年年报,2024年营业收入 276.17 亿元,同比增长 12%;归母净利润 33.68亿元,同比增长 18%;扣非归母净利润 31.18 亿元, 同比增长 15%。经营活动现金流净额 44.02 亿元,同比增长 5%。全年计提各 项资产减值准备 3.08 亿元,对 ...

【中国银河宏观】到底什么是"海湖庄园协议"？ 中国银河证券研究 2025年03月17日 07:45 北京 以下文章来源于中国银河宏观 ，作者中国银河宏观 中国银河宏观 中国银河证券宏观经济研究 核心观点 >>海湖庄园协议是特朗普所谓"让美国再次伟大"（Make America Great Again）的重要一环。 在美国上一任政府履职期间，"拜登经济学"大行其道，美国通过不断突破债务上限，用大规模的 财政扩张维持了美国经济的高景气度，造就了"美元越印越涨"的局面。然而，这加剧了全球对于 美元体系的不信任，数据显示，过去一段时间美元资产在全球官方储备的占比已出现了显著下 降，黄金价格也在强美元环境下不断突破新高，脱离了我们熟知的"美元-实际利率-黄金"框架。 其三，设计"世纪债券"重塑美国债务体系。利用关税、金融安全、军事保护伞等手段迫使美国盟 友卖出美元资产，达到美元贬值的效果；同时，为了维持美债利率稳定且不削弱"弱美元"的效 果，这些国家还要配合美国调整其债务结构，将短期美债置换为超长期的世纪债券（Century Bond）。 >>特朗普已经在尝试推进海湖庄园协议。 显然，美国人也担心触及美元体系信用危机的 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the construction materials industry [1] Core Views - The construction materials industry is experiencing a recovery in demand driven by the peak construction season, with a focus on supply-side changes [1] - Cement prices are expected to continue rising in the short term due to recovering demand and low inventory levels, while long-term policies may boost infrastructure investment [38] - The consumer building materials sector is anticipated to see a rebound as government policies facilitate the clearance of existing housing stock [39] - The fiberglass market is stabilizing, with prices for both roving and electronic yarn expected to remain steady in the short term [40] - Float glass prices are under pressure, with an expected decline due to increased supply and stagnant demand [40] Summary by Sections Industry News - Sichuan has announced its peak production tasks for the cement industry for 2025, requiring a baseline of 190 days for staggered production [7] - A meeting in Shanxi focused on promoting stable growth in the cement industry, emphasizing the importance of policy implementation and industry self-discipline [9][10] Industry Data - The national average cement price is reported at 352.69 CNY per ton, with a week-on-week increase of 3.24% [16] - The average price of float glass has decreased to 1324.01 CNY per ton, reflecting a 2.14% decline from the previous week [18] Market Review - The construction materials sector has seen a weekly increase of 1.18%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.40 percentage points [25] - The top-performing companies in the construction materials sector this week include Fashilong and Fujian Cement, with significant weekly gains [32]

行业点评报告 ·银行业 政府债发力突出,企业信贷需求仍待修复 2025 年 2 月金融数据点评 ☎：010-8092-7617 网: zhangyiwei_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130519010001 研究助理 袁世麟 网: yuanshilin_yj@chinastock.com.cn 相对沪深 300 表现图 2025-03-14 20% 资料来源:ifind. 中国银河证券矿 2025年3月16日 银行 推荐 维持 分析师 张一纬 相关研究 www.chinastock.com.cn 证券研究报告 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明 ● 事件:央行公布了 2025年 2 月金融数据。 社融同比多增、存量增速继续提升:2月新增社融 2.23万亿元,同比多增 ● 7374 亿元;截至２月末, 社融存量同比增长 8.19%, 增速环比提升 0.16pct。 受信贷投放节奏提前影响,人民币贷款转为少增;政府债对社融增长贡献度提 高。两新政策成效释放,居民短贷有所改善;企业贷款同比少增,预计受累化 债及融资需求较弱。M1 增速放缓,居民存款搬家推动非银存 ...

行业周报 · 社会服务行业 政策与 AI 共振，催化母婴及 K9 教育赛道 ——行业周报 2025 年 3 月 16 日 核心观点 本周重点事项点评： 社会服务行业 | | | 分析师 顾熹闽 ：021-2025-2670 ：guximin_yj @chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130522070001 相对沪深 300 表现图 2025-3-16 资料来源：wind，中国银河资证料券来研源究：院中国银河证券研究院 相关研究 1. 【银河社服】公司点评：携程集团（9961.HK）： 营销投放提升，巩固国际业务增长 2. 【银河社服】行业周报：育儿补贴有望推出，AI 催化服务业变革 2）对标海外发达国家，呼市补贴力度和广度较强。从补贴力度上来看，参考呼和浩特市 2024 年的人均可支配收入，每剩余一孩一年一万的补贴略等于个人可支配收入的 20.3%，在各国生育补 贴力度中位于中等位置，明显高于美国/加拿大/英国/日本的 1.6%/9.6%/7.4%/6.5%，但仍低于韩 国的 38.2%。单从育儿补贴的角度来看（未计算税务减免、带薪休假等其他潜在福利），呼市补贴 的补贴力度和覆盖时长均 ...

2025 年 03 月 13 日 核心观点 主要财务指标预测 | | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 10100.38 | 11682.81 | 13099.80 | 14586.50 | | 收入增长率% | 28.05 | 15.67 | 12.13 | 11.35 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 3136.04 | 3588.80 | 3941.37 | 4386.43 | | 利润增速% | 25.30 | 14.44 | 9.82 | 11.29 | | 毛利率% | 78.34 | 76.09 | 75.50 | 75.00 | | 摊薄 EPS(元) | 2.52 | 2.88 | 3.16 | 3.52 | | PE | 21.82 | 19.07 | 17.36 | 15.60 | | PB | 5.15 | 4.40 | 3.51 | 2.87 | | PS | 6.77 | 5.86 | 5.22 | 4.69 | 公司点评报告 · 食品饮料行业 看好今世缘的 3 ...

每日晨报 2025 年 3 月 17 日 银河观点集萃 责任编辑 周颖 ☎：010-80927635 网:zhouying_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130511090001 要闻 2 月新增社融 2.23 万亿元 www.chinastock.com.cn 证券研究报告 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明 ● 宏观:金融数据的噪音——2025年2月金融数据解读。货币政策展望:适度 宽松取向不改,但降息节奏可能发生改变,再次降息需要等待。降息窗口可能 会在二季度美联储降息预期重燃之后逐渐打开。在全面降息之前,可能会进行 结构性降息,调降结构性货币政策工具资金利率。降准和买断式逆回购都会是 释放中长期流动性的重要工具,同时降准可以节约银行成本,支持信用扩张, 1 季度落地的概率仍然较大。2025 年货币政策取向转向适度宽松仍是基本叙 事,全年降息降准的空间仍在,全年可能累计调降政策利率(7天逆回购利率) 30-40BP,引导 5 年期 LPR 下行 40-60BP。全年可能累计降准 100-150BP。 央行公开市场国债全年累计净买入可能在 2万亿元之上。 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the consumer sector, driven by policy support, suggesting a potential recovery in consumption [2][41]. Core Insights - The A-share market has shown a general upward trend, with the overall index rising by 1.49% during the week of March 10 to March 14, 2025. The Shanghai Composite Index surpassed 3400 points, led by gains in the consumer and financial sectors [2][5]. - The report highlights that the consumer sector is expected to benefit from upcoming government initiatives aimed at boosting consumption, with a focus on policies that promote domestic demand [41][42]. - The market is currently experiencing a transition period, with a shift from old to new economic drivers, and the potential for significant valuation reconstruction in the A-share market [41]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The A-share index saw a rise of 1.49% during the week, with the Shanghai 50 and CSI 300 indices increasing by 2.18% and 1.59%, respectively [5][7]. - Consumer-related industries performed notably well, with beauty care, food and beverage, and coal sectors leading the gains at 8.18%, 6.19%, and 4.84% respectively [7][38]. 2. Fund Flow - The average daily trading volume in the A-share market was 16,557 billion, a decrease of 451.91 billion from the previous week, while the average turnover rate was 1.7499% [12][15]. - Northbound trading saw an average daily turnover of 2,009.73 billion, down by 43.80 billion from the previous week [15]. 3. Valuation Changes - The overall A-share index's PE (TTM) ratio increased by 1.45% to 19.21 times, placing it at the 64.43% percentile since 2010, indicating a moderate historical level [29][37]. - The PB (LF) ratio rose by 1.47% to 1.64 times, which is at the 27.68% percentile since 2010, suggesting a relatively low historical valuation [29][37]. 4. Future Investment Outlook - The report anticipates that the consumer sector will gain more attention from investors due to its relatively low valuations and the expected policy support [41][42]. - Key investment themes include technology innovation driven by self-sufficiency, expansion of domestic demand, and high-margin dividend sectors, particularly focusing on state-owned enterprises [42].