证券研究报告 海外科技 行业定期报告 证券分析师 郑嘉伟 S1350523120001 zhengjiawei@huayuanstock.com 于炳麟 S1350524060002 yubinglin@huayuanstock.com 联系人 郑冰倩 S1350124050014 zhengbingqian@huayuanstock.com 相关研究 2024 年 07 月 16 日 智能驾驶领涨 AI 应用,Web3 重视大选催化不断 ——海外科技周报(24/07/08-24/07/12) 投资要点: ➢ 海外 AI:本周 7 月 9 日~7 月 11 日在美国旧金山举办美国西部半导体展览会(semicon west),本届展 会共有来自 27 个国家/地区的共 600 多家企业参加。CEO Summit 主题为"投资美国制造业的未来"和 "抓住未来的全球机遇和挑战"。深入探讨美国经济发展和制造业复苏的核心,关键主题将强调投资和建 设设备基础设施以及促进全球增长和创新的承诺。国际半导体产业协会(SEMI)在大会上发布报告中宣 布,今年全球半导体制造设备销售额预计将达到 1090 亿美元,同比增长 3.4% ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage due to the favorable price mechanism and declining gas source costs, which enhance the stability of its urban gas business [6][10]. Core Viewpoints - The company has a clear business structure, expanding its urban gas operations from Shenzhen to surrounding provinces, with a robust profitability profile. As of the end of 2023, the company had over 7.63 million natural gas users, with a pipeline natural gas sales volume of 4.84 billion cubic meters, representing an 18.28% year-on-year increase [6][19]. - The demand side benefits from the adjustment of base costs, allowing the recovery of high procurement costs not previously passed on to downstream customers, which is expected to enhance profit margins [6][12]. - On the supply side, the company anticipates a recovery in gross profit margins due to the decline in natural gas prices and the completion of new projects that will increase LNG sales capacity [6][40]. Summary by Sections From Shenzhen to Nationwide - The company, established in 1996, has transitioned from primarily urban gas operations to a comprehensive clean energy operator, achieving a revenue of 30.93 billion yuan in 2023, a 2.88% increase year-on-year [17][19]. Urban Gas Business Benefits from Supply and Demand - The urban gas business is set to benefit from a dual advantage of price mechanism adjustments and declining gas source costs, with a significant increase in sales volume expected [29][43]. - The company has successfully expanded its urban gas operations to 11 provinces, with a notable increase in user numbers and sales volume [19][36]. Comprehensive Energy and Smart Services - The comprehensive energy and smart services segments have shown steady growth, contributing significantly to the company's profitability. The smart services segment saw a revenue increase of 33.97% in 2023 [7][22]. - The company has invested in various projects, including solar energy and smart gas services, which are expected to bolster its revenue streams [21][22]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024-2026 is 1.518 billion, 1.649 billion, and 1.800 billion yuan, with corresponding growth rates of 5.4%, 8.6%, and 9.2% [10][11]. - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 13, 12, and 11 for the years 2024-2026, indicating a favorable valuation compared to peers [10][11].

证券研究报告 公用事业|电力 证券分析师 查浩 S1350524060004 zhahao@huayuanstock.com 邹佩轩 S1350524070004 zoupeixuan01@huayuanstock.com 刘晓宁 S1350523120003 liuxiaoning@huayuanstock.com 联系人 市场表现: -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 2023-01-032023-02-012023-02-232023-03-172023-04-112023-05-082023-05-302023-06-212023-07-172023-08-082023-08-302023-09-212023-10-232023-11-142023-12-062023-12-282024-01-222024-02-212024-03-142024-04-092024-05-062024-05-282024-06-202024-07-12 中国核电 沪深300 相关研究 2024 年 07 月 15 日 中国核电 (601985.SH ) 公司点评 买入(维持) ——装机 ...

证券研究报告 交通运输 行业定期报告 投资要点: 证券分析师 孙延 S1350524050003 sunyan01@huayuanstock.com 王惠武 S1350524060001 wanghuiwu@huayuanstock.com 联系人 张付哲 zhangfuzhe@huayuanstock.com 板块表现: 相关研究 2024 年 07 月 14 日 集运欧线 SCFI 再上涨,航空上半年业绩改善 看好(维持) ——2024 年 7 月 08 日-7 月 14 日交通运输行业周报 一、行业动态跟踪 ➢ 航运船舶: 1)三家央企将大幅扩张船舶运力,服务国货国运。据财新网,中国三家央企正开启庞大 的造船计划,大幅扩张运力,以增加未来国货国运的比例。中国远洋海运集团正计划推进 一项"百船计划",新增约 100 艘大型散货船、油轮、多用途杂货船等船舶运力。招商局 集团旗下的航运板块也有类似的计划,拟新增约 100 艘大型散货船、油轮、LNG 船等船舶 运力。另一央企国家能源投资集团旗下的航运公司也计划大幅扩张运力,主要是散货船。 中国远洋海运集团人士称,大幅增加运力主要是为了服务国家的国货国运战略,但 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook for the public utility sector [1] Core Insights - The tightening of carbon emission quotas is beneficial for high-efficiency coal power plants, while the gas sector is expected to maintain low gas source costs in 2024, with market reforms aiding natural gas demand growth [1][12] Summary by Sections 1. Carbon Emission Quotas Tightening Benefits High-Efficiency Coal Power Units - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment released a draft for the carbon emission trading quota for the power generation industry for 2023 and 2024, shifting the quota calculation from electricity supply to electricity generation [3][4] - The new quota scheme focuses on emission intensity rather than absolute emission reductions, which is expected to favor high-efficiency coal power units [5][6] - The benchmark values for various coal power units are set to decrease by approximately 0.5% in 2024 compared to 2023 [5][6] 2. Natural Gas: 2024 Gas Source Costs Remain Low - Natural gas prices have remained low in 2024, with pipeline gas import prices decreasing by 11.2% and LNG import prices by 17.2% in the first five months [12][14] - National gas consumption is projected to grow steadily, with a 10.8% year-on-year increase in apparent consumption in early 2024 [12][14] - Market reforms are expected to enhance gas trading volumes and consumption, with significant developments in pipeline gas pre-sale trading [16][17] 3. Recommended Portfolio Performance - The recommended portfolio, including companies like Changjiang Electric Power and Huaneng Hydropower, has outperformed the market, with a 37.20% increase in 2024 compared to the broader indices [1][19] 4. Key Company Valuations - Companies such as China Nuclear Power and Huaneng Power are rated as "Buy," with projected earnings growth and favorable price-to-earnings ratios [21][23]

证券研究报告 金属与材料|有色金属 行业定期报告 证券分析师 田源 S1350524030001 tianyuan@huayuanstock.com 田庆争 S1350524050001 tianqingzheng@huayuanstock.com 项祈瑞 S1350524040002 xiangqirui@huayuanstock.com 联系人 板块表现: 相关研究 2024 年 7 月 14 日 能源金属底部震荡,关注软磁和铜合金材料的主题机会 看好(维持) ——有色金属 能源金属&新材料周报(24/7/08-24/7/14) 投资要点: ➢ 能源金属方面,价格整体呈弱势运行趋势。锂:本周,碳酸锂价格下跌 0.88%至 89750 元/吨,氢氧化锂 价格下跌 0.30%至 82200 元/吨,近期市场偏弱震荡运行。供给端,碳酸锂产量稳步攀升,6 月碳酸锂产 量 64868 吨,环比上升 4%,增速放缓;需求端,补库行情结束,部分下游库存足够满足生产需求,长协 客供稳定下现货成交相对清淡。预计后续价格偏弱震荡运行。建议关注:天齐锂业、赣锋锂业、中矿资源、 永兴材料。 ➢ 钴:本周海外 MB 钴价下跌 0. ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, considering its core pipeline is nearing approval and the progress of its R&D pipeline is positive [3] Core Views - The company has entered into a licensing agreement with Belenos Biosciences, granting exclusive rights for the research, development, registration, production, and commercialization of two bispecific antibodies (CM512 and CM536) outside Greater China [2] - The company will receive an upfront payment of $15 million and a 30.01% equity stake in Belenos, with potential additional payments of up to $170 million based on development, regulatory, and commercial milestones [2] - The company's R&D pipeline is differentiated and progressing well, with CM310 (IL4Rα) expected to be approved in China for adult moderate-to-severe atopic dermatitis this year, and other indications such as chronic rhinosinusitis with nasal polyps and seasonal allergic rhinitis also progressing [2] - CMG901 (CLDN 18.2 ADC) has global rights granted to AstraZeneca, with a global Phase III trial for second-line gastric cancer completed in April 2024 [2] - Other pipeline candidates, including CM326 (TSLP), CM338 (MASP-2), CM313 (CD38), and several CD3 bispecific antibodies, are also advancing through clinical trials [2] Financial Forecasts and Valuation - The company's revenue is projected to be RMB 224 million, RMB 532 million, and RMB 1.216 billion for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [3] - Using a DCF valuation method with a perpetual growth rate of 2% and a WACC of 9.46%, the company's fair equity value is estimated at RMB 16.3 billion, equivalent to HKD 17.6 billion (exchange rate: RMB 1 = HKD 1.08) [3] - The company's gross margin is expected to remain stable, ranging from 89.44% to 91.00% from 2024 to 2026 [4] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be negative, with losses of RMB 704 million, RMB 772 million, and RMB 512 million for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [4] - ROE is expected to remain negative, ranging from -30.7% to -50.4% over the same period [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [3][7]. Core Insights - The company showcased significant progress in its innovative drug pipeline during the R&D Day held on July 9, 2024, highlighting the clinical data and market potential of its candidate drugs [3]. - The company has a strong competitive edge with its innovative pipeline, which includes promising candidates such as Syk inhibitor, Sovanertinib, and HMPL-306, each targeting specific diseases with substantial market potential [4]. - Future catalysts for the company include the anticipated growth in overseas sales of Fuquintinib, ongoing clinical trials for various indications, and expected regulatory approvals that could drive revenue growth [5]. Summary by Sections Company Events - On July 9, 2024, the company held an R&D Day where management shared insights on clinical data and market value of its innovative pipeline, including Syk inhibitor for autoimmune diseases, Sovanertinib for pancreatic cancer, and HMPL-306 for acute myeloid leukemia [3]. Candidate Pipeline Progress - Syk Inhibitor: Demonstrates superior selectivity and safety profile, with ongoing clinical trials showing promising results for ITP and wAIHA [4]. - Sovanertinib: Shows improved progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) in combination with PD1 and chemotherapy for pancreatic cancer [4]. - HMPL-306: Targets IDH1/2 mutations in acute myeloid leukemia, with a registration-phase III trial initiated [4]. Future Catalysts - Fuquintinib's overseas sales are expected to grow, with a potential approval in Japan in the second half of 2024 [5]. - The company anticipates new sales growth from domestic approvals for various indications, including gastric cancer and other cancer therapies [5]. - The company has a robust cash position of $886 million as of the end of 2023, supporting its growth strategy [5]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - The company projects total revenue of $300 million to $400 million in 2024, driven by existing product sales and royalties [5]. - Revenue estimates for 2024-2026 are $705 million, $912 million, and $1.185 billion, respectively, with a calculated equity value of HKD 40.9 billion based on DCF analysis [5][6].

证券研究报告 医药生物 行业定期报告 证券分析师 刘闯 S1350524030002 liuchuang@huayuanstock.com 李强 S1350524040001 liqiang01@huayuanstock.com 板块表现: 相关研究 2024 年 07 月 14 日 血制品外延还有多大空间? 看好(维持) ——医药行业周报(24/7/8-24/7/12) 投资要点: 本周医药市场表现分析:本周以恒瑞医药为代表的创新药表现相对强势;此外,受证监会宣布暂停 转融券业务影响,部分处于底部的医疗服务和 CXO 个股反弹明显;部分中报业绩超预期的个股如 国药现代、甘李药业、奥锐特等表现相对亮眼。短期建议关注:1)创新药:海外方面,美国 6 月 通胀数据再次超预期放缓,市场预期 9 月降息可能性加大,叠加前期国务院官方表态支持创新药全 产业链条发展,我们继续看好创新药趋势持续,优质创新药个股有望迎来反弹;2)中报:逐步进 入中报业绩窗口期,建议关注半年报较好及下半年业绩预期加速个股。3)超跌:医药指数呈现底 部企稳迹象,超跌个股有望迎来反弹。 医药指数和各细分领域表现、涨跌幅分析:本周表现较为分散,整体 ...

证券研究报告 金属与材料|有色金属 行业定期报告 证券分析师 田源 S1350524030001 tianyuan@huayuanstock.com 田庆争 S1350524050001 tianqingzheng@huayuanstock.com 项祈瑞 S1350524040002 xiangqirui@huayuanstock.com 联系人 板块表现: 相关研究 2024 年 07 月 14 日 美国 6 月 CPI 低于预期,金价有望持续上涨 看好(维持) ——有色金属 大宗金属周报(24/7/8-24/7/14) 投资要点: ➢ 美国 6 月 CPI 低于预期,美联储 9 月降息或成大概率事件,金价有望持续上涨。铜金中长期逻辑仍未改变, 仍建议继续关注贵金属、低冶炼自给率的铜和高氧化铝自给率的电解铝板块,小金属建议关注:钨、锰、锑 和铟,同时可关注滞涨品种如镍和镁等。 ➢ 贵金属板块:美国 6 月 CPI 低于预期,美联储 9 月降息或成大概率事件,金价后续有望持续上涨。伦敦现 货黄金上涨 1.17%、上期所黄金上涨 1.92%,伦敦现货白银上涨 0.46%、上期所白银上涨 1.96%,钯金 下跌 ...