Report Overview - Report Title: Short - end Spreads Compressed, Long - end Spreads Widened — Credit Analysis Weekly (2025/4/14 - 2025/4/18) - Report Date: April 20, 2025 - Industry Investment Rating: Not provided in the report Core Views - The 10 - year Treasury yield at 1.65% prices in about a 30BP interest rate cut expectation, and the 10Y Treasury yield may return above 1.7% this year [2] - The credit spreads of various industries fluctuated this week. For urban investment bonds, the 3 - 5Y spreads are inverted with long - end spreads, and it is recommended that institutions with stable liability ends select high - quality urban investment entities in developed regions. For industrial bonds, short - end spreads compressed slightly, and long - end spreads widened slightly, and it is recommended to focus on high - rating short - duration industrial bonds. For bank capital bonds, short - end spreads compressed to varying degrees, and long - end spreads widened slightly, and it is recommended to focus on the catch - up opportunities of secondary capital bonds at the convex points of the term structure [2][44] Summary by Directory 1. This Week's Market Overview (4/14 - 4/18) 1.1 Primary Market - Credit bond issuance, repayment, and net financing: The net financing of credit bonds (excluding asset - backed securities) was 17.96 billion yuan, a decrease of 4.34 billion yuan from last week. The total issuance was 45 billion yuan, an increase of 2.42 billion yuan, and the total repayment was 27.04 billion yuan, an increase of 6.76 billion yuan. The net financing of asset - backed securities was 2.35 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.08 billion yuan [6] - By product type: The net financing of urban investment bonds was 6.28 billion yuan, a decrease of 0.26 billion yuan; that of industrial bonds was 12.78 billion yuan, an increase of 3.97 billion yuan; and that of financial bonds was - 1.1 billion yuan, a decrease of 8.04 billion yuan [6] - Issuance and repayment numbers: Urban investment bond issuance increased by 53 and repayment by 21; industrial bond issuance increased by 102 and repayment by 63; financial bond issuance decreased by 14 and repayment increased by 9 [7] - Issuance costs: Except for the issuance rates of AAA urban investment bonds and financial bonds rising, the issuance rates of other rated credit bonds decreased to varying degrees. For urban investment bonds, AA and AA + rates decreased by 15BP and 2BP respectively; for industrial bonds, AA, AA +, and AAA rates decreased by 15BP, 18BP, and 2BP respectively; AAA urban investment and financial bond rates increased by 1BP and 15BP respectively. For asset - backed securities, AAsf - rated ABS rate increased by 550BP, AA + sf - rated ABS rate decreased by 92BP, AAAsf - rated ABS rate decreased by 9BP, and AA + and AAA - rated ABN costs decreased [15][16] 1.2 Secondary Market - Trading volume: The trading volume of credit bonds (excluding asset - backed securities) decreased by 2.24 billion yuan from last week. Urban investment bond volume increased by 5.65 billion yuan, industrial bond volume increased by 4.3 billion yuan, financial bond volume decreased by 12.2 billion yuan, and asset - backed securities volume increased by 0.9 billion yuan [18] - Turnover rate: The turnover rate of credit bonds fluctuated. Urban investment bond turnover rate was 1.69%, a decrease of 0.36pct; industrial bond turnover rate was 2.14%, an increase of 0.24pct; financial bond turnover rate was 2.71%, a decrease of 0.89pct; asset - backed securities turnover rate was 0.7%, an increase of 0.28pct [18] - Yields: Except for the yields of credit bonds below 1Y decreasing slightly, the yields of credit bonds of other terms and ratings decreased by 0 - 7BP. By variety, taking AA + - rated 5Y bonds as an example, the yields of different varieties fluctuated [22][23] - Credit spreads: The credit spreads of various industries fluctuated slightly. AA - rated pharmaceutical and biological credit bonds narrowed by 10BP; among AA + - rated bonds, the spreads of electronics, chemical, and machinery industries narrowed by 6BP, 5BP, and 5BP respectively, while that of the computer industry widened by 5BP; among AAA - rated bonds, the spread of the electrical equipment industry narrowed by 9BP, and that of the leisure service industry widened by 6BP [25] 2. Urban Investment Bonds - By term: Short - end spreads compressed slightly, and long - end spreads widened slightly. The 0.5 - 1Y spread was 44BP, a compression of 1BP; the 1 - 3Y spread was 51BP, a compression of less than 1BP; the 3 - 5Y spread was 75BP, a compression of 3BP; the 5 - 10Y spread was 66BP, a widening of 3BP; the spread over 10Y was 47BP, a widening of less than 1BP [29] - By region: The credit spreads of urban investment bonds in various regions generally narrowed, with some regions rising slightly. Tianjin, Shanxi, and Gansu's AA - rated spreads compressed by 5BP or more, and the spreads of other regions fluctuated by less than 5BP [31] 3. Industrial Bonds - Credit spreads: Short - end spreads compressed slightly, and long - end spreads widened slightly. After the adjustment of long - end spreads, the convex point of the term spread of AAA - rated industrial bonds has been smoothed out. It is recommended to focus on high - rating short - duration industrial bonds for coupon income and increase positions on dips [33] 4. Bank Capital Bonds - Credit spreads: Short - end spreads compressed to varying degrees, and long - end spreads widened slightly. For secondary capital bonds, the spreads of AAA - 3Y, AA + 1Y and 3Y, and AA 1Y narrowed by 5BP or more, and the spreads of AAA -, AA +, and AA 10Y widened by 2 - 3BP. For bank perpetual bonds, the spreads of AAA -, AA +, and AA 1Y narrowed by 5BP. It is recommended to focus on the catch - up opportunities of secondary capital bonds at the convex points of the term structure [37] 5. This Week's Bond Market Sentiment - Negative sentiment: The implied ratings of "24 Anyang Iron and Steel MTN001 (Sustainable - linked)", "24 Anyang Iron and Steel MTN002 (Science and Technology Innovation Note)", "25 Anyang Iron and Steel PPN001 (Science and Technology Innovation Note)", and "25 Anyang Iron and Steel PPN002B (Science and Technology Innovation Note)" issued by Anyang Iron and Steel Group Co., Ltd. were downgraded [2] 6. Investment Recommendations - Urban investment bonds: Institutions with stable liability ends can select high - quality urban investment entities in developed regions to lock in coupon income and moderately sink to capture arbitrage opportunities at the convex points of the term structure [2][44] - Industrial bonds: Focus on high - rating short - duration industrial bonds for coupon income and increase positions on dips [2][44] - Bank capital bonds: Focus on the catch - up opportunities of secondary capital bonds at the convex points of the term structure [2][44]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the transportation industry is "Positive" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The domestic aircraft industry is accelerating its international expansion, and the express delivery sector continues to grow rapidly [4][5] - The shipping market is experiencing fluctuations in freight rates, with VLCC rates rebounding due to OPEC+ production increases [5][6] - The express delivery industry shows strong demand, with a year-on-year growth of 21.6% in the first quarter [8][9] Industry Dynamics Tracking Shipping Vessels - VLCC market rates have rebounded, with the TCE on April 17 reaching $48,551/day, up 33.8% from April 16 [5] - The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index reported a decrease of 1.7% to 1,371 points [5] - The BDTI index increased by 2.34% to 1,141 points, while the BCTI index rose by 2.3% to 686 points [6] - The BDI index decreased by 3.6% to 1,262 points [6] Express Logistics - The express delivery industry handled 451.4 billion items in the first quarter, with a revenue of 345.64 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 21.6% and 10.9% respectively [8] - Major express companies showed varied performance in March, with YTO Express and SF Express reporting significant growth in business volume [9][10] Aviation and Airports - Domestic aircraft are gaining traction in international markets, with recent agreements between China and Vietnam, and China and Malaysia to enhance cooperation [11] - Predictions for the May Day holiday indicate a 7.6% increase in passenger volume compared to 2024 [12][13] Key Company Focus Aviation - Companies to watch include China National Aviation, Southern Airlines, and Huaxia Airlines due to expected demand recovery and supply constraints [14] Express Delivery - Recommended companies include ZTO Express, YTO Express, and SF Express, which are positioned well for long-term growth despite current price competition [14] Shipping - Companies like COSCO Shipping and China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation are highlighted due to the tightening supply of new vessels and increasing demand for oil transportation [14]

海外 行业定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 04 月 20 日 证券研究报告 郑嘉伟 SAC：S1350523120001 zhengjiawei@huayuanstock.com 于炳麟 SAC：S1350524060002 yubinglin@huayuanstock.com 郑冰倩 SAC：S1350525040002 zhengbingqian@huayuanstock.com 板块表现： 继续看多黄金，规避美元定价的风险资产 投资评级： 无 ——海外科技周报（25/4/14-25/4/18） 投资要点： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 证券分析师 海外 AI：本周，白宫依据《贸易扩展法》第 232 条款发布的新行动，针对加工关键矿物及其衍生产品采取关税 或数量限制措施，以降低对外国供应链的依赖、增强国家安全和经济韧性。政策明确强化了美国自主掌控能源关 键原材料供应链的战略方向，间接利好铀板块。叠加此前限制俄罗斯铀进口的政策背景，本次行动有望进一步提 振市场对美国本土铀矿开采、铀浓缩与核燃料加工企业（如 Energy Fuels、UEC、Cameco 等）的中长期增长 预期 ...

证券研究报告 固收定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 04 月 20 日 政策助力，Q1 经济数据较好 ——一季度经济数据点评 投资要点： 联系人 一季度 GDP 增速亮眼。一季度，中国 GDP 达到 31.9 万亿元，实际 GDP 同比增长 5.4%。其中，最终消费支出拉动 GDP 增长 2.8 个百分点，贡献超过一半以上的经济 增长，或因在以旧换新政策持续推动下，消费潜力持续释放；资本形成总额拉动 GDP 增长约 0.5 个百分点，或因财政政策靠前发力和大规模设备更新政策效果逐渐显现； 货物和服务净出口拉动 GDP 增长 2.1 个百分点，或因"抢出口"效应持续支撑。 证券分析师 廖志明 SAC：S1350524100002 liaozhiming@huayuanstock.com 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 一季度消费增速较高。一季度，社会消费品零售总额 12.5 万亿元，同比增长 4.6%， 扣除价格因素实际增长 4.8%；3 月份社会消费品零售总额同比增长 5.9%，增速较 1-2 月份提高 1.9pct。消费品以旧换新加力扩围政策成效明显。3 月份限额以上单位 通 讯 ...

证券研究报告 机械设备 | 工程机械 北交所|公司点评报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 04 月 20 日 证券分析师 赵昊 SAC：S1350524110004 zhaohao@huayuanstock.com 万枭 SAC：S1350524100001 wanxiao@huayuanstock.com 市场表现： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 事 件 ： 25Q1 实 现 营 收 1.67 亿 元 (yoy+18%/qoq-10%) ， 归 母 净 利 润 3382.47 万 元 (yoy+61%/qoq+2%)，扣非归母净利润 3301.50 万元(yoy+70%/qoq+2%)，收入端延续稳定增 长，利润端超预期。从费用端来看，25Q1 销售费用率 1.11%(yoy-0.01pcts/qoq+0.05pcts)， 管理费用率 2.57%(yoy-0.59pcts/qoq-0.71pcts），费用端控制得当。 联系人 液压油缸"小巨人"，工程机械等下游恢复，油气弹簧等新产品不断扩展。公司业务涵盖液 压产品的研发、设计、生产和销售，主要产品包括自卸车专用油缸、机械装备用缸和油气 ...

证券研究报告 建筑装饰 | 房屋建设Ⅱ 非金融|公司点评报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 04 月 20 日 证券分析师 王彬鹏 SAC：S1350524090001 wangbinpeng@huayuanstock.com 戴铭余 SAC：S1350524060003 daimingyu@huayuanstock.com 郦悦轩 SAC：S1350524080001 liyuexuan@huayuanstock.com 唐志玮 tangzhiwei@huayuanstock.com 林高凡 lingaofan@huayuanstock.com 市场表现： | 基本数据 | 年 | 04 | 月 18 | 日 | | 2025 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | | | 5.50 | | | | | 一 年 内 最 / 最 低 | | | 6.79/4.72 | | 高 | | | （元） | | | | | | | | 总市值（百万元） | | | 227,262.15 | | | | | 流通市值（百万元） | | ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The company is experiencing sustained high growth in its Aliskiren ester product line, and an innovative pipeline is about to form [5] - The company reported a revenue of 4.012 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 19.22%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 602 million yuan, up 3.71% year-on-year [6] - The company is increasing its R&D investment, which accounted for 25.35% of revenue in 2024, amounting to 1.017 billion yuan [6] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: 3.365 billion yuan in 2023, 4.012 billion yuan in 2024, 4.505 billion yuan in 2025E, 5.436 billion yuan in 2026E, and 6.278 billion yuan in 2027E [5][7] - The projected net profit for 2025 is 661 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 9.88% [5] - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 0.59 yuan in 2025, with a projected price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 60.80 [5][7] - The company’s total assets are projected to reach 10.998 billion yuan in 2025, with total liabilities of 1.980 billion yuan [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The company is focusing on the import substitution of core components for seat adjustment systems, expanding market capacity, and developing assembly components [5] - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 304 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.04%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 79.13 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.93% [6] - The company is leveraging growth opportunities from downstream customer demand, with several core products experiencing revenue growth [6] - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles in China continues to rise, with the company focusing on the new energy vehicle sector, where orders for new energy models account for 90% of total orders [6] - The company plans to expand its market and production capacity in 2025, with ongoing R&D efforts and significant investment progress in key projects [6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 304 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 18.04% and a net profit of 79 million yuan, reflecting an 18.93% increase [6] - The company’s core products, including metal powder metallurgy parts and self-lubricating bearings, saw significant revenue increases [6] Market Opportunities - The Chinese automotive industry showed resilience in 2024, with production and sales reaching 31.28 million and 31.44 million vehicles, respectively, marking year-on-year increases of 3.70% and 4.50% [6] - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the growing demand for new energy vehicles, with strong partnerships with leading clients in the industry [6] Future Outlook - The company is expected to maintain high growth rates through horizontal expansion and continuous R&D optimization [6] - The projected net profits for 2025-2027 are estimated at 97 million, 119 million, and 146 million yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.94, 1.15, and 1.42 yuan per share [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the precious metals industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4][6] Core Viewpoints - The precious metals sector, particularly gold, has seen significant price increases, with London spot gold rising 8.22% to $3305.65 per ounce and Shanghai gold increasing 7.03% to ¥791.02 per gram over the past two weeks [5][10] - The recent surge in gold prices is attributed to the suspension of reciprocal tariffs by the U.S. government, which has alleviated systemic risks in the market [5][6] - The U.S. House of Representatives passed a budget plan that is expected to extend tax cuts from the Trump era, which could further support gold prices [5][6] - Strong retail sales data from the U.S. indicates economic resilience, contributing to bullish sentiment in the gold market [5][6] - The report suggests that the "Trump 2.0" narrative will be a key driver for gold trading in the coming months, with expectations of continued demand from central banks [5][6] Summary by Sections Price Trends - Over the last two weeks, gold prices have shown substantial increases, with London spot gold up 8.22% and Shanghai gold up 7.03% [10][11] - Silver prices have fluctuated, with London spot silver rising 3.10% while Shanghai silver fell by 1.52% [10][11] U.S. Economic Data and Federal Reserve Tracking - U.S. retail sales rose by 1.4% in March, marking the largest increase in nearly two years, driven by sales of automobiles and high-priced goods [5][6] Positions and Trading Volume - The report indicates an increase in trading volumes for both gold and silver, with Shanghai gold holdings rising 8.97% to 424,000 contracts [10][11] Internal and External Price Differences and Gold Benchmark Ratios - The internal-external price difference for gold is reported at ¥16.82 per gram, a decrease from two weeks prior [57] Futures Basis Situation - The international gold basis (spot-futures) is reported at -$35.65 per ounce, showing a decrease from two weeks ago [64]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the non-ferrous metals industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Views - After a decline, copper prices may experience fluctuations, awaiting further macroeconomic catalysts. The rebound in copper prices is limited by the impact of tariffs on demand and expectations of a recession in the U.S. [5][6] - The aluminum market shows signs of bottom support with domestic inventory decreasing, while lithium prices continue to decline due to an oversupply situation [5][6] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - **Important Information**: U.S. retail sales for March exceeded expectations, with a month-on-month increase of 1.4% [9] - **Market Performance**: The non-ferrous metals sector underperformed the Shanghai Composite Index, with a weekly increase of 0.91% compared to the index's 1.19% [13][14] - **Valuation Changes**: The PE_TTM for the non-ferrous metals sector is 19.17, with a decrease of 0.44, while the PB_LF is 2.08, down by 0.04 [22][25] 2. Industrial Metals - **Copper**: Copper prices fluctuated, with LME copper down 0.29% and SHFE copper up 1.21%. The copper smelting profit was -2261 CNY/ton, indicating an expanded loss [27] - **Aluminum**: LME aluminum decreased by 1.58%, while SHFE aluminum increased by 0.13%. The aluminum smelting profit rose to 3970 CNY/ton, up 8.78% [36] - **Lead and Zinc**: Lead prices increased slightly, while zinc prices fell. The smelting profit for zinc was -78 CNY/ton, indicating a loss [51][52] 3. Energy Metals - **Lithium**: Lithium prices continue to decline, with carbonate lithium down 0.21% to 71450 CNY/ton. The market remains oversupplied [78] - **Cobalt**: Domestic cobalt prices increased by 5.22% to 242000 CNY/ton, with domestic smelting profits rising by 41.71% to 40800 CNY/ton [88]