证券研究报告 公用事业 | 燃气Ⅱ 非金融|公司点评报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 04 月 18 日 证券分析师 查浩 SAC：S1350524060004 zhahao@huayuanstock.com 刘晓宁 SAC：S1350523120003 liuxiaoning@huayuanstock.com 市场表现： | 基本数据 | | | 年 | 04 | | 日 | 月 | | 2025 | 17 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | | | | | | 8.43 | | | | | | 一 年 内 最 低 | 最 | 高 | | | | | | / | | | | （元） | | | | | | | | | | | | 总市值（百万元） | | | | | 4,132.32 | | | | | | | 流通市值（百万元） | | | | | | 4,091.07 | | | | | | 总股本（百万股） | | | | | | 490.19 | | | | | ...

证券研究报告 建筑装饰 | 工程咨询服务 Ⅱ 非金融|公司点评报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 04 月 18 日 | 收盘价（元） | | | | | | | 15.18 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 一 年 内 | | | | | | | | | | （元） | | | | | | | | | | 总市值（百万元） | | | | | | | 6,198.40 | | | 流通市值（百万元） | | | | | | | 6,070.45 | | | 总股本（百万股） | | | | | | | 408.33 | | | 资产负债率（%） | | | | | | | 53.78 | | | 每股净资产（元/股） | | | | | | | 6.74 | | | / 低 | 高 | 最 | | | | | 18.30/11.68 | | | 最 | | | | | | | | | | 基本数据 | | | 2025 | 年 | 04 | 月 | 18 | 日 | 地铁设计(003013.SZ) ——业绩提 ...

证券研究报告 晨会 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 04 月 18 日 投资要点： 资料来源：聚源，华源证券研究所，截至2025年04月17日 华源晨会精粹 固定收益 纯债基金久期估算-区分利率与信用——基于 K-means 聚类算法和加权 线性回归：久期是债券基金的核心风险指标，用于衡量投资组合对利率变动的敏感 性。我们基于债基净值回归法进行久期日频估算。本文测算债基久期中位数和公告 久期中位数误差较小，测算结果具有一定的准确性和稳定性。结果显示，样本中的 利 率 债 纯 债 券 型 基 金 / 信 用 债 纯 债 券 型 基 金 / 标 准 中 长 期 纯 债 基 金 分 别 有 57%/47%/55%测算误差在 0.4 年以内，验证了模型的有效性。2025 年 4 月上旬， 我们测算的利率债基久期中位数从 4 月 1 日的 3.44 年上升至 4 月 10 日的 3.79 年， 反映关税战使得债基普遍拉长久期；同时期，信用债基久期中位数则从 2.05 年升至 2.18 年。中美关税战出现缓和迹象，债市预计将调整。 风险提示：模型假设风险；数据质量风险；极端市场风险。 公用环保 光大环境(0025 ...

证券研究报告 医药生物 | 医疗器械 非金融|公司点评报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 04 月 18 日 证券分析师 刘闯 SAC：S1350524030002 liuchuang@huayuanstock.com 林海霖 SAC：S1350524050002 linhailin@huayuanstock.com 市场表现： | 基本数据 | | | | 年 | 04 | 月 17 日 | | | | 2025 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | | | | | | | | 25.50 | | | | 一 年 内 低 | 最 | 高 | / | | | | 最 | | 41.29/22.21 | | | （元） | | | | | | | | | | | | 总市值（百万元） | | | | | | | | 10,369.83 | | | | 流通市值（百万元） | | | | | | | | 2,860.06 | | | | 总股本（百万股） | | | | | | | ...

有色金属 | 能源金属 非金融|首次覆盖报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 04 月 18 日 田源 SAC：S1350524030001 tianyuan@huayuanstock.com 张明磊 SAC：S1350525010001 zhangminglei@huayuanstock.com 田庆争 SAC：S1350524050001 tianqingzheng@huayuanstock.com 陈轩 chenxuan01@huayuanstock.com 证券研究报告 赣锋锂业(002460.SZ) 投资评级： 增持（首次） ——锂一体化龙头，资源端放量穿越下行周期 投资要点： 风险提示。新建产能进度不及预期风险；新能源汽车需求不及预期风险；锂供给超预期释放 风险；市场空间测算偏差风险。 | 盈利预测与估值（人民币） | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | 营业收入（百万元） | 32,972 | 18,906 | 18,981 | 23,227 ...

Investment Rating - Investment Rating: Positive (Maintain) [1] Core Insights - The penetration rate of intelligent driving is continuously increasing, with a significant rise in high-level intelligent driving penetration [4][35] - Leading domestic and international automotive companies are focusing on the intelligent driving sector [4][35] - The intelligent driving chip market is expanding, with significant industry barriers [4][35] - Horizon Robotics is a leading domestic manufacturer of autonomous driving chips and intelligent driving solutions [4][35] - Black Sesame is making breakthroughs in high-end intelligent driving chips, with notable software optimization effects [4][35] Summary by Sections 1. Intelligent Driving Penetration - The global sales of high-level intelligent vehicles are accelerating, with an expected penetration rate of over 65% for high-level autonomous driving by 2030 [12][13] - In China, the penetration rate of intelligent vehicles is projected to reach 99.7% by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 48.1% for high-level autonomous driving from 2023 to 2030 [16][17] 2. Intelligent Driving Chip Market - The global ADAS SoC market reached 27.5 billion RMB in 2023, with China's market accounting for 14.1 billion RMB [85] - The market is expected to grow to 92.5 billion RMB globally by 2028, with a CAGR of 27.5% [85] 3. Key Players and Innovations - BYD is expected to lead in sales with 4.272 million units in 2024, showing a year-on-year growth of 41.1% [36] - The "Whole Vehicle Intelligence" strategy by BYD aims to integrate electric and intelligent technologies for enhanced safety and efficiency [39] - Tesla's Full Self-Driving (FSD) is seeing accelerated mileage growth, with significant improvements in AI training computing power [52][56] 4. Market Trends - The penetration rates of highway NOA and city NOA are steadily increasing, with domestic brands showing rapid growth compared to joint venture brands [28][29] - Huawei's QianKun ADS 3.0 architecture has been upgraded to enhance perception, decision-making, and control efficiency [66][67]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The company's performance meets expectations, with both thermal and hydropower entering the production phase [5] - The significant increase in net profit for 2024 is primarily due to the transfer of 50% equity in Guodian Construction Investment, resulting in a one-time investment gain of approximately 4.6 billion [7] - The company plans to invest 74.1 billion in capital expenditures for 2025, with a focus on new energy projects [7] Financial Performance Summary - For 2023, the company reported revenue of 180.999 billion, a decrease of 7.02% year-on-year, and a net profit of 5.609 billion, an increase of 98.80% [6] - The projected revenue for 2024 is 179.182 billion, with a slight decrease of 1.00%, while the net profit is expected to rise to 9.831 billion, reflecting a growth of 75.28% [6] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is estimated at 0.55 yuan, with a projected price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 8.45 [6] Operational Insights - The company’s total installed capacity as of the end of 2024 is 111.7 million kilowatts, with thermal, hydropower, wind, and solar power capacities of 74.63 million, 14.95 million, 9.84 million, and 12.28 million kilowatts respectively [7] - The company achieved a total electricity generation of 436.7 billion kilowatt-hours in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 1.59% [7] - The average on-grid electricity price for 2024 is 429.82 yuan per megawatt-hour, a decrease of 7.97 yuan compared to 2023 [7] Future Projections - The forecasted net profit for 2025-2027 is 6.389 billion, 7.071 billion, and 7.247 billion respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 13, 12, and 11 [7] - The company is expected to maintain a dividend payout ratio of 36.28% for 2024, with a total dividend of 0.11 yuan per share [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [6] Core Views - The report highlights that the annual report has been released, and the company is expected to enter a phase of significant growth in civil explosives production capacity [6][8] - The company experienced a decline in revenue and net profit in 2024, with revenue at 6.101 billion yuan, down 13.10% year-on-year, and net profit at 668 million yuan, down 21.69% year-on-year [8] - The report anticipates a recovery in profitability and growth in net profit from 2025 onwards, with projections of 751 million yuan in 2025, 1.071 billion yuan in 2026, and 1.515 billion yuan in 2027 [8][9] Financial Summary - The company's total market capitalization is approximately 10.56 billion yuan, with a circulating market capitalization of about 9.59 billion yuan [4] - The company reported a total asset-liability ratio of 26.53% and a net asset value per share of 4.58 yuan [4] - The forecasted revenue for 2025 is 5.969 billion yuan, with a projected growth rate of 15.19% in 2026 and 19.89% in 2027 [7][9] - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to increase from 0.62 yuan in 2024 to 1.41 yuan in 2027 [7][9] - The report indicates that the company is expected to maintain a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 14.05 in 2025, decreasing to 6.97 by 2027 [7][10]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [6] Core Views - The company's performance meets expectations, and it is waiting for signs of a bottoming out [6] - The company is positioned as a leader in the plastic pipe retail market, benefiting from domestic demand policies and high dividend yields, which enhance its defensive attributes [8] Financial Summary - The company reported a revenue of 6,267 million RMB in 2024, a decrease of 1.75% year-on-year, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 953 million RMB, down 33.49% year-on-year [8] - The company’s PPR series revenue was 29.39 billion RMB, with a gross margin of 56.47%, while the PE series revenue was 14.23 billion RMB, with a gross margin of 31.40% [8] - The company expects net profits of 1,000 million RMB, 1,102 million RMB, and 1,219 million RMB for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.63, 0.69, and 0.77 RMB [8][9] Market Performance - The company’s sales expenses increased significantly, leading to a pressure on profitability, with a total profit margin of 15.32% in 2024 [8] - The company has a high dividend payout ratio of 99% for 2024, resulting in a dividend yield of 4.75% [8] Earnings Forecast - The company’s revenue is projected to grow to 6,612 million RMB in 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 5.51% [9] - The expected operating profit for 2025 is 1,197 million RMB, reflecting a growth rate of 4.89% [9]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an investment rating of "Buy" for the company, marking its first coverage [5][61]. Core Views - The company focuses on its core toll road business while exploring diversified layouts, which is expected to enhance its profitability and shareholder returns [7][10]. - The company has a strong position in the Jiangsu province's highway network, with significant contributions from its core asset, the Shanghai-Nanjing Expressway [10][38]. - The report anticipates steady growth in revenue and net profit, driven by the recovery of traffic demand and expansion of road assets [57][61]. Summary by Relevant Sections Basic Data - Closing price: 15.59 CNY - Total market capitalization: 78,538.48 million CNY - Total shares outstanding: 5,037.75 million shares - Debt-to-asset ratio: 44.67% [3][4]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - Projected revenue for 2025: 22,128 million CNY, with a year-on-year growth rate of -4.61% - Projected net profit for 2025: 5,211 million CNY, with a year-on-year growth rate of 5.33% - Price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) for 2025: 15.07 [6][8]. Investment Highlights - The company has a cumulative cash dividend of 246.85 billion CNY from 2014 to 2024, with a stable dividend per share of around 0.45 CNY [7][33]. - The company operates 19 toll road projects with approximately 1,000 kilometers of controlled or invested road mileage [14][38]. - The Shanghai-Nanjing Expressway contributes 55.22% of the total revenue from toll roads in 2024 [38]. Revenue Structure - Toll road revenue accounted for approximately 41.07% of total revenue in 2024, with construction period revenue from PPP projects contributing 46.84% [20][26]. - Investment income for 2024 is estimated at 17.80 billion CNY, representing 28.07% of operating profit [26][46]. Risk and Growth Drivers - The company is expected to benefit from the recovery of macroeconomic conditions and the expansion of its road network, which will drive traffic volume and revenue growth [9][57]. - The diversification into financial services, renewable energy, and real estate is anticipated to enhance profitability and sustainability [45][51].