Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Positive" (maintained) [6] Core Insights - The industry is at a valuation and profit bottom, with pulp prices expected to rise due to the US dollar interest rate cut cycle [1][12] - The supply of commodity pulp is tightening, with limited new overseas capacity expected after 2025, while domestic self-sufficient pulp production is increasing [2][19] - Short-term demand remains resilient, driven by Chinese demand, but structural impacts from self-sufficient pulp projects may suppress commodity pulp demand in the medium term [2][25] - Current inventory levels are relatively low, supporting strong price expectations for Q1 2026 [3][41] - Cost differences in pulp production are significant, with domestic pulp relying heavily on imported wood chips [3][33] Summary by Sections Section 1: Market Cycle and Price Dynamics - The pulp and paper cycle is at a bottom, with historical price performance indicating a potential rebound [1][11] - As of January 16, paper prices are at historical low percentiles, while pulp prices are also low, providing a safety margin for the industry [1][11] - The US dollar's depreciation is expected to stimulate demand and drive pulp prices upward [12] Section 2: Supply and Demand Analysis - Commodity pulp supply is slowing, with global capacity at approximately 36.14 million tons as of 2024, and utilization rates around 90% [2][19] - Domestic self-sufficient pulp production is projected to add about 6.6 million tons in 2025-2026, primarily from vertical integration projects [24] - Global demand for hardwood pulp is expected to remain resilient, with a year-on-year increase of 7% in shipments driven by China [25][26] Section 3: Inventory Levels - Global hardwood pulp producer inventory days are at 44.7 days, indicating a relatively low stock level [3][37] - China's main port inventory has decreased to 1.906 million tons, reflecting strong demand and continuous inventory reduction [41] Section 4: Cost Structure - The cash cost of domestic pulp production varies significantly based on the source of wood chips, with costs around $480 per ton for imported wood and $420 per ton for domestic wood [3][33] - The cost structure is influenced by the production of self-sufficient pulp, which may lead to increased domestic wood chip prices [44] Section 5: Investment Recommendations - Recommended companies include Sun Paper, Nine Dragons Paper, Xianhe Paper, and Bohui Paper, which have strong cost control and high self-sufficient pulp ratios [4][56][57][58]

Investment Rating - The industry rating for the EDA sector is "Positive" [3] Core Insights - The EDA industry is a crucial tool for semiconductor design, with a global market size of approximately $15.7 billion in 2024, representing only 2.5% of the semiconductor industry valued at $631 billion, yet it supports a multi-trillion dollar digital economy [1][14] - The Chinese EDA market is expected to grow from 19.3 billion yuan to 35.4 billion yuan between 2025 and 2027, with a CAGR of 35.4%, significantly outpacing the global growth rate of 7.84% [1][16] - The global EDA market is highly concentrated, dominated by three major players: Synopsys, Cadence, and Siemens EDA, which have built their market positions through decades of systematic mergers and acquisitions [2] - The domestic EDA industry in China is experiencing rapid growth but faces structural bottlenecks, including fragmented competition, a shortage of high-end talent, and barriers to entry due to established international ecosystems [2][3] - Policy direction is shifting from fragmented competition to platform collaboration, with government support aimed at promoting integration and upgrading the industry [2] Summary by Sections EDA Industry Characteristics - EDA is a foundational tool for the trillion-dollar semiconductor industry, with its market size rapidly expanding in China [8][9] - The industry has high capital requirements and a significant demand for skilled talent, with a long training cycle [21] - High barriers to entry and strong binding among full-process platform companies enhance competitive advantages [22][25] Global EDA Development History - The rise of EDA in the U.S. is attributed to high investment and strategic government support, with a focus on mergers and acquisitions [27][28] - The U.S. government has historically invested in EDA as a strategic pillar for enhancing semiconductor and defense competitiveness [28][29] Current State of China's EDA Industry - The Chinese EDA market is growing rapidly but is hindered by fragmentation, capital concentration, talent shortages, and ecological barriers [3][16] - The domestic EDA industry is at a critical juncture for breakthrough and integration, with increasing policy support [3] Investment Recommendations - The EDA sector is seen as being at a pivotal moment for domestic replacement, with increasing policy support and active consolidation among leading platform companies [3] - Recommended companies for long-term investment include Huada Jiutian, Gai Lun Electronics, and Guangli Micro [3]

证券研究报告 | 公司深度 | 酒店餐饮 小菜园(00999) 报告日期：2026 年 01 月 21 日 从徽菜烟火到千店网络，凭效率升级驱动规模扩张 ——小菜园深度报告 投资要点 ❑ 全国领先的大众便民中式餐饮连锁企业，稳健扩张驱动增长 小菜园是一家全国领先的大众便民餐饮连锁企业，专注于为消费者提供高品质、 标准化的中式餐饮体验。小菜园凭借 SKU 精简、供应链体系完善、自动化设备 投入及门店面积收缩，正进入效率兑现期，未来全国扩张潜力巨大。2021-2024 年，公司收入由 26.5 亿元增至 52.1 亿元，CAGR 约 25%；毛利率由约 66%提升 至约 68%，净利率由约 9%提升至约 11%，盈利能力和资本回报稳步提升。 ❑ 万亿级市场+行业集中度提升，我国中餐市场增长空间广阔 2024 年中国内地餐饮市场规模约 55,000+亿元，2020-2024 年 CAGR 约 9%。其 中中式/非中式餐饮市场结构明显：增速维度，非中式＞中式，2018-2023 年非中 式/中式餐饮 CAGR 约 7%/4%；规模维度，中式＞非中式，2023 年中式/非中式市 场规模约 40,000+/12,000+ ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Su Nong Bank is "Buy" (maintained) [8] Core Views - Su Nong Bank's 2025 performance report indicates steady growth in revenue and profit, with improvements in non-performing loans and provisions [1] - The bank's revenue and net profit for 2025 are projected to grow by 0.4% and 5.0% year-on-year, respectively, with an increase in growth rates compared to the first three quarters of 2025 [2][3] - The outlook for 2026 suggests reduced pressure on core revenue, with expectations of improved interest margins and good growth in non-interest income [3] Financial Performance Summary - For Q4 2025, Su Nong Bank's non-performing loan ratio was 0.88%, a decrease of 2 basis points from the previous quarter, while the provision coverage ratio increased by 14 percentage points to 370% [5] - Loan and deposit growth rates as of Q4 2025 were 7.8% and 7.5% year-on-year, respectively, with a cautious lending strategy expected to maintain single-digit growth in loans for 2026 [4] - The forecast for net profit growth from 2025 to 2027 is 5.04%, 5.27%, and 6.26%, respectively, with a target price of 6.77 CNY per share, indicating a potential upside of 37% [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [7] Core Insights - The company is recognized as an excellent international brand operator, with a promising future as it rebounds from a low point. It operates notable brands including Clarks, Bossini, and Testoni, and has established a joint venture to manage the outdoor brand Haglöfs in Greater China. For the first half of 2025, the company reported a revenue of HK$48.1 billion (down 5.7% year-on-year) and a net profit of HK$1.8 billion (up 60.9% year-on-year) [1][4] - Clarks, a 200-year-old global footwear brand, holds a market share of 14.6% in the UK (ranked first) and 1.8% in the US (ranked eighth). The brand's revenue for the first half of 2025 was HK$41.5 billion (down 5.3% year-on-year), accounting for 85.7% of total revenue, with a gross margin of 48.7% (up 0.1 percentage points) [2] - The company is actively expanding its online sales network, with a 9.7% year-on-year increase in online revenue to HK$6.3 billion for the first half of 2025, representing 15.2% of total revenue [3] - The newly appointed co-CEO, Victor Herrero, has extensive management experience and has successfully led the company to profitability, with a 60.9% year-on-year increase in net profit for the first half of 2025 [4] - The company is also focusing on the outdoor segment by enhancing its presence with the high-end outdoor brand Haglöfs, planning to open over 20 stores in Greater China by 2025 [5] - Profit forecasts indicate a positive outlook, with expected net profits of HK$2.1 billion, HK$5.1 billion, and HK$5.7 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting significant growth [6] Financial Summary - For the first half of 2025, the company reported a revenue of HK$48.1 billion and a net profit of HK$1.8 billion, with projections for 2025-2027 indicating a recovery and growth trajectory [1][6] - The estimated revenue for 2025 is HK$10,466 million, with a projected net profit of HK$208.2 million, marking a significant turnaround from a loss in 2024 [11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [7] Core Insights - The company is recognized as an excellent international brand operator with a promising future, having a diverse portfolio that includes Clarks, Bossini, and Testoni, among others. In the first half of 2025, the company reported a revenue of HK$48.1 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 5.7%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 60.9% to HK$1.8 billion [1][4] - Clarks, a well-known global footwear brand, holds a market share of 14.6% in the UK and 1.8% in the US. The brand's revenue for the first half of 2025 was HK$41.5 billion, down 5.3% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 48.7% [2] - The new co-CEO, Victor Herrero, has extensive management experience and has successfully led the company to profitability, with a significant increase in net profit in the first half of 2025 [4] Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company is expected to achieve net profits of HK$2.1 billion, HK$5.1 billion, and HK$5.7 billion for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, indicating a recovery and growth trajectory [6] - The projected revenue for 2025 is HK$10.47 billion, with a slight increase expected in subsequent years [11] Online and Offline Expansion - Clarks is actively expanding its online sales network, with a projected online revenue increase of 9.7% to HK$630 million in the first half of 2025, accounting for 15.2% of total revenue [3] - The company plans to open new concept stores globally, including three independent Cloudstepper™ stores in Malaysia and the US by 2025, and a larger Canvas retail concept store in London's Tottenham Court Road [2][3] Strategic Initiatives - The company is enhancing its outdoor brand presence by establishing a joint venture to operate the Haglöfs brand in Greater China, with plans to open over 20 stores by 2025 [5] - The company is also leveraging social media platforms for targeted marketing to boost brand recognition [5]

证券研究报告 | 浙商早知道 ：wanghe@stocke.com.cn 市场总览 重要推荐 ❑ 【浙商农林牧渔 钟凯锋/张心怡】优然牧业（09858）公司深度：有"盲区"的周期，待"重估"的价值—— 20260120 http://www.stocke.com.cn 1/3 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 报告日期：2026 年 01 月 22 日 浙商早知道 2026 年 01 月 22 日 ：王禾 执业证书编号：S1230512110001 ：021-80105901 ❑ 大势：1 月 21 日上证指数上涨 0.08%，沪深 300 上涨 0.09%，科创 50 上涨 3.53%，中证 1000 上涨 0.79%，创业 板指上涨 0.54%，恒生指数上涨 0.37%。 ❑ 行业：1 月 21 日表现最好的行业分别是有色金属（+2.79%)、电子（+2.62%)、机械设备（+1.5%)、钢铁 （+1.39%)、建筑材料（+1.35%)，表现最差的行业分别是银行（-1.58%)、煤炭（-1.57%)、食品饮料（-1.53%)、 商贸零售（-1.07%)、公用事业（-0.8%)。 ❑ 资金：1 月 21 日 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, YuRan Dairy [5] Core Insights - The company is positioned as a leading player in China's dairy industry, with both a strong market position and undervalued stock, benefiting from the upward cycle of beef cattle and the reversal of raw milk prices, which is expected to lead to high returns from cattle disposal and significant growth in raw milk production [1][2] - The raw milk price is nearing a turning point, with a projected decline in dairy cow inventory by 8% from the end of 2023 to October 2025, which is expected to support a moderate increase in milk prices [1] - The company has established the largest modern dairy farm network in China, operating 100 farms across 17 provinces, with a dairy cow inventory of 620,000 heads and a raw milk production of 2.08 million tons in the first half of 2025, leading the industry [1][18] Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - YuRan Dairy is a leader in the upstream dairy market, covering the entire industry chain from breeding to raw milk production, and is committed to high-quality development and sustainable practices [17] - The company has a stable shareholding structure, with a significant stake held by Yili Group, which also serves as a core customer, ensuring a deep business relationship [22] 2. Beef Cattle Market - The beef cattle market is expected to experience a structural shortage due to a decline in breeding cows, which will support long-term price increases [2][47] - The company is projected to benefit from the rising prices of calves and breeding cattle, with expected revenue growth from cattle disposal of 72% in 2025 [2] 3. Raw Milk Market - The raw milk business is expected to see significant growth, with sales projected to exceed 4 million tons by 2025, benefiting from cost reductions and efficiency improvements [1][3] - The company has a strong sales relationship with Yili, with 94.8% of its raw milk sales going to Yili at a price significantly higher than the industry average [1] 4. Financial Projections - Revenue is expected to grow from 200.96 billion yuan in 2024 to 258.98 billion yuan in 2027, with net profit projected to increase from a loss of 691 million yuan in 2024 to a profit of 4.01 billion yuan in 2027 [11][9] - The company’s price-to-earnings ratio is projected to decrease significantly, indicating a potential for valuation improvement [9] 5. Market Dynamics - The report highlights the cyclical nature of the dairy and beef markets, with a turning point expected in the raw milk cycle and a long-term upward trend in beef prices due to structural supply issues [1][68] - The company is well-positioned to capitalize on these market dynamics, with a robust operational framework and strategic partnerships [1][4]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, YuRan Dairy [5] Core Insights - The company is positioned as a leading player in China's dairy industry, with both a strong market position and undervalued stock, benefiting from the upward cycle of beef cattle and the reversal of raw milk prices, which is expected to lead to high returns from cattle disposal and significant growth in raw milk production [1][2] - The raw milk price is nearing a turning point, with current prices at the bottom of the cycle, and a projected decline in dairy cow inventory by 8% by October 2025 compared to the end of 2023, which will support a moderate increase in milk prices [1] - The company has established the largest modern dairy farm network in China, operating 100 farms across 17 provinces, with a dairy cow inventory of 620,000 heads and a raw milk production of 2.08 million tons in the first half of 2025, ranking first in the country [1][18] Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - YuRan Dairy is a leader in the upstream dairy market in China, covering the entire industry chain from breeding to raw milk production, and is committed to high-quality development and sustainable practices [17] - The company has a stable shareholding structure, with Yili Group as the largest shareholder, holding 33.93% of the shares, which strengthens the business relationship and sales advantages [22] 2. Beef Cattle Market - The beef cattle market is expected to experience a structural shortage, supporting long-term price increases due to a significant reduction in inventory and a weak replenishment of breeding cows [2][38] - The company is projected to benefit from the rising prices of calves and breeding cattle, with expected revenue growth from cattle disposal of 72% in 2025, 25% in 2026, and 34% in 2027 [2] 3. Raw Milk Market - The raw milk business is expected to have high growth elasticity, with a projected sales volume exceeding 4 million tons by 2025, benefiting from cost reduction and efficiency improvements [1][3] - The company’s raw milk sales to Yili accounted for 94.8% of its total raw milk revenue, with a selling price of 3.87 yuan/kg, which is 25.6% higher than the industry average [1] 4. Financial Projections - The company’s revenue is expected to grow steadily, with projected revenues of 215.89 billion yuan in 2025, 234.86 billion yuan in 2026, and 258.98 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting growth rates of 7.43%, 8.78%, and 10.27% respectively [9] - The net profit is projected to recover significantly, with estimates of 9.71 billion yuan in 2025, 20.37 billion yuan in 2026, and 40.10 billion yuan in 2027, corresponding to growth rates of 240.60%, 109.67%, and 96.88% respectively [9][11]

Market Overview - On January 20, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.01%, the CSI 300 decreased by 0.33%, the STAR 50 dropped by 1.58%, the CSI 1000 declined by 1%, the ChiNext Index decreased by 1.79%, and the Hang Seng Index fell by 0.29% [5][6] - The best-performing sectors on January 20 were oil and petrochemicals (+1.74%), building materials (+1.71%), real estate (+1.55%), transportation (+1.25%), and construction decoration (+1.24%). The worst-performing sectors were telecommunications (-3.23%), defense and military (-2.87%), computers (-1.94%), comprehensive (-1.87%), and electric equipment (-1.84%) [5][6] - The total trading volume of the A-share market on January 20 was 28,042 billion yuan, with a net inflow of 3.663 billion Hong Kong dollars from southbound funds [5][6] Important Recommendations - The report focuses on Wei Long Delicious (09985), a leading spicy snack company, which is expected to stabilize its noodle products in 2026 while the new konjac products are anticipated to drive revenue growth [7][8] - The recommendation logic indicates that despite market concerns about the growth potential of noodle products and increased competition in the konjac category, the company is expected to achieve a slight increase in noodle product sales in 2026 due to new flavors and improved distribution strategies [7][8] - The konjac industry is projected to exceed 30 billion yuan by 2025, with a CAGR of 12% over the next five years, indicating significant growth potential. Wei Long, as a market leader, is well-positioned to capitalize on this trend with new product launches [7][8] Important Insights - The macroeconomic report indicates that December 2025 concluded positively, with a focus on enhancing policy effectiveness for 2026. The overall economic growth for 2025 was 5%, and there is an expectation for a strong start in 2026 supported by industrial production and fiscal policies [9][10] - The report highlights a shift in policy focus from merely expanding policy measures to improving their effectiveness, particularly in supporting major national strategic tasks [9][10] Important Comments - The media and internet sector is experiencing a cooling period in AI applications, with a focus on identifying new investment opportunities. Companies such as Perfect World, Century Huatong, and Giant Network are highlighted as potential investment targets [11] - The report notes a fundamental shift in search logic from SEO to GEO, emphasizing the importance of authoritative information sources in AI model training and commercialization [11]