Report Investment Rating - The report does not mention the industry investment rating Core Viewpoints - Geopolitical factors may play an increasingly important role in the future pricing of major asset classes. The GPR index provides a relatively high - frequency, complete and coherent reliable data source for quantitatively tracking geopolitical factors, which may have a certain positive effect on preventing and responding to geopolitical risks [1][8][55] Summary by Directory 1. Geopolitical Factors May Become Important Influences on Asset Pricing - Since 2025, with the resonance of the bond and equity eras, asset pricing theories have been continuously updated. Geopolitics, as an exogenous factor in traditional asset - pricing models, is becoming more important in asset pricing. The shift from incremental to stock - based competition is the underlying reason for the intensifying geopolitical influence [1][14][16] - Geopolitical factors have low predictability. It is more feasible to prepare response plans in advance rather than predict these factors. Geopolitical events can cause short - term shocks to asset prices, and in recent years, their influence may show signs of long - term effects [2][22][27] 2. How to Quantify Geopolitical Factors - With the development of text analysis and big data processing, the measurement of geopolitical factors is becoming more standardized, multi - dimensional, and high - frequency. The GPR index, proposed by Caldara and Iacoviello in 2022, is the most representative method for quantifying geopolitical risks based on news text. It can accurately capture important historical geopolitical events but has regional limitations [3][34][35] - Other methods, such as economic sanctions, military expenditure, and political stance indicators, can complement the GPR index [41] 3. Analysis of the Impact of Geopolitical Factors on Asset Pricing 3.1 Correlation Analysis between the GPR Index and Major Asset Classes - Statistically, the impact of the GPR index on the returns of major asset classes is weak overall, but there are directional differences among different assets. The GPR index has limited statistical correlation with asset price trends, and its impact is more short - term [6][43][44] 3.2 Using the GPR Index to Measure the Returns of Major Asset Classes - From a full - cycle perspective, the GPR index can help measure the tail - risk of major asset returns. Geopolitical risks may show a trend of continuous central - value increase. Gold shows strong safe - haven properties in high - geopolitical - risk periods, while copper and crude oil prefer a low - geopolitical - risk environment. The impact of geopolitical factors on major assets is evolving from a short - term factor to a long - term structural force [7][45][49] 3.3 Using the GPR Index to Measure the Volatility of Major Asset Classes - Geopolitical factors not only affect the price direction of major assets but also their volatility. Commodity and equity assets are more sensitive to geopolitical risks, while bond assets show strong volatility resilience. Since 2021, the influence of geopolitical factors on the volatility of major assets has significantly increased [8][52][53]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [5] Core Views - The report indicates that the leading spicy snack company is expected to stabilize its noodle products in 2026 while experiencing rapid growth in its konjac new products, driven by scale effects that may lead to better-than-expected performance [2][3] Summary by Relevant Sections Market Outlook - The market perceives insufficient growth momentum for noodle products, with potential ongoing pressure due to weakened industry demand. However, the report suggests that noodle products may stabilize or see slight growth in 2026, while the konjac category is expected to achieve rapid growth through new flavors [2][3] Growth Drivers 1. The konjac industry is projected to grow significantly, with an expected market size exceeding 30 billion yuan by 2025 and a CAGR of 12% over the next five years. The company holds the leading market share and has established strong brand recognition, which provides a competitive advantage. The growth in 2026 will be supported by three new flavors [3] 2. The decline in noodle products is attributed to SKU adjustments, but this impact is expected to diminish in 2026. New flavors and optimized channel displays are anticipated to enhance sales performance [3] 3. The combination of scale effects and cost advantages is expected to improve the company's profitability [3] Financial Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 7.26 billion, 8.59 billion, and 10.14 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 16%, 18%, and 18%. Net profit is expected to reach 1.41 billion, 1.72 billion, and 2.07 billion yuan for the same years, with growth rates of 32%, 23%, and 20% [5][3] - The estimated P/E ratio for 2026 is 16.69, indicating a favorable valuation compared to the industry average of 20.4. The report suggests a target P/E range of 20-25 for the company, corresponding to a market capitalization of 34.5 billion to 43 billion yuan, representing a potential upside of 20%-50% [3]

Market Overview - On January 19, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.29%, the CSI 300 increased by 0.05%, the STAR Market 50 fell by 0.48%, the CSI 1000 rose by 0.4%, the ChiNext Index decreased by 0.7%, and the Hang Seng Index dropped by 1.05% [3][4] - The best-performing sectors on January 19 were basic chemicals (+2.7%), oil and petrochemicals (+2.08%), electric equipment (+1.84%), automobiles (+1.7%), and social services (+1.63%). The worst-performing sectors were computers (-1.55%), telecommunications (-0.96%), banking (-0.6%), pharmaceuticals and biology (-0.52%), and electronics (-0.49%) [3][4] - The total trading volume for the A-share market on January 19 was 27,322 billion yuan, with a net inflow of 2.292 billion Hong Kong dollars from southbound funds [3][4] Important Insights Macroeconomic Analysis - Latin America is characterized as an export-oriented economy for agricultural and mineral products while importing manufactured goods. The commodity cycle significantly influences total demand through both export and capital expenditure channels [5] - The market anticipates that exports may drive economic growth in 2026 [5] Fixed Income Analysis - The current R007 weighted interest rate is around 1.50%, which reflects both the central bank's preferred pricing (DR007) and liquidity friction between banks and non-banks (the spread between R007 and DR007). It is advised not to hold overly optimistic expectations [7][8] - The market sentiment is relatively optimistic, but there is a cautious stance compared to previous assessments [10]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is optimistic [1] Core Viewpoints - The report maintains a bullish outlook on the steel sector, emphasizing a positive quarterly rhythm for steel equities [1] Price Performance - The SW Steel Index is at 2,700, showing a year-to-date increase of 1.5% [3] - The price of rebar (HRB400 20mm) is 3,320 CNY/ton, with a weekly increase of 1.2% [3] - The price of hot-rolled coil is 3,330 CNY/ton, reflecting a weekly increase of 1.8% [3] - The iron ore price index is at 107 USD/ton, with a weekly increase of 1.7% [3] Inventory - Total social inventory of five major steel products is 8.65 million tons, with a year-to-date decrease of 0.8% [5] - Steel mill inventory stands at 3.81 million tons, showing a year-to-date increase of 1.2% [5] - Port inventory of iron ore is 16.55 million tons, with a year-to-date increase of 4.3% [5] Supply and Demand - Weekly production of five major steel products is projected to be around 900,000 tons [9] - Daily molten iron production is expected to reach approximately 245,000 tons [9] - The report indicates a steady demand for rebar, with apparent demand figures showing a positive trend [14]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is optimistic [1] Core Viewpoints - The report maintains a bullish outlook on the steel sector, emphasizing a positive quarterly rhythm for steel equities [1] Price Performance - The SW Steel Index is at 2,700, with a weekly increase of 4.0% and a year-to-date increase of 15.0% [3] - The average price of rebar (HRB400 20mm) is 3,320 CNY/ton, reflecting a weekly increase of 1.2% and no change year-to-date [3] - The iron ore price index is at 107 USD/ton, with a weekly increase of 1.7% [3] Inventory - Total social inventory of five major steel products is 865,000 tons, with a weekly increase of 0.1% and a year-to-date decrease of 8.0% [5] - Steel mill inventory stands at 381,000 tons, with a weekly increase of 2.1% and a year-to-date increase of 1.2% [5] - Port inventory of iron ore is 16,551,000 tons, with a weekly increase of 1.7% and a year-to-date increase of 4.3% [5] Supply and Demand - The weekly output of five major steel products is projected to be 900,000 tons [9] - The average daily molten iron production is expected to reach 245,000 tons [9] - The operating rate of blast furnaces across 247 mills is currently at a healthy level, indicating stable production capacity utilization [11]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: ETF Fund Flow Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The model is designed to analyze and predict fund flows into various ETFs, identifying sectors or themes that are likely to outperform based on capital allocation trends [1][11] - **Model Construction Process**: The model tracks daily fund flow data for key ETFs, such as CSI 300 ETF, CSI 500 ETF, and thematic ETFs like Chip ETF, Carbon Neutral ETF, and Chip 50 ETF. It evaluates the net inflow or outflow of funds over specific time periods to determine investor preferences and market sentiment. For example, the model observed significant outflows from broad-based ETFs like CSI 300 ETF and CSI 500 ETF, while recommending thematic ETFs in technology sectors such as chips and carbon neutrality [1][11] - **Model Evaluation**: The model effectively identifies shifts in capital allocation, highlighting potential opportunities in technology-related sectors while cautioning against certain AI application themes [1][11] --- Model Backtesting Results 1. ETF Fund Flow Model - **Key Observations**: - Significant outflows from CSI 300 ETF and CSI 500 ETF, with daily net outflows reaching 114 billion, 715 billion, and 1,048 billion yuan on January 14, 15, and 16, respectively [11] - Recommendations for Chip ETF, Carbon Neutral ETF, and Chip 50 ETF, reflecting a preference for technology sectors like electronics and power equipment [11] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: Style Factors (BARRA Style Factors) - **Factor Construction Idea**: These factors aim to capture the performance of different market styles, such as value, growth, momentum, and size, to identify prevailing market preferences and trends [24] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Fundamental factors: Evaluate metrics like profitability and earnings growth to assess the performance of high-profitability assets relative to the market average - Transaction-related factors: Analyze metrics such as turnover rate, short-term momentum, and beta coefficients to identify stocks with potential for excess returns - Size factors: Examine the performance of small-cap stocks versus large-cap stocks, including non-linear size effects [24] - **Factor Evaluation**: The factors reveal a shift in market preferences, with high-turnover stocks reversing gains, while short-term momentum and high-beta stocks show potential for sustained excess returns. Small-cap stocks exhibit relative outperformance during the observed period [24] --- Factor Backtesting Results 1. Style Factors (BARRA Style Factors) - **Key Observations**: - Profitability-related factors showed recovery, with high-profitability assets outperforming the market average [24] - Transaction-related factors indicated a reversal in high-turnover stocks, while short-term momentum and high-beta stocks demonstrated potential for sustained excess returns [24] - Size factors highlighted the relative strength of small-cap stocks, with non-linear size factors experiencing larger drawdowns [24]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is maintained as "Positive" [5] Core Views - The report highlights that the liquor sector is currently at a bottom phase, with leading brands expected to see an upward trend in sales during the upcoming Spring Festival, particularly for core products [2][10] - The report emphasizes the importance of the Spring Festival stocking season for consumer goods, with a focus on new consumption trends in the medium to long term [3][12] Summary by Sections Market Performance Review - The food and beverage sector experienced a decline of 2.10% from January 12 to January 16, 2026, underperforming compared to the Shanghai Composite Index, which fell by 0.45%, and the CSI 300 Index, which dropped by 0.57% [1][19] - Specific declines included the liquor sector at -2.35%, processed foods at -2.13%, and dairy products at -2.09% [1][19] Weekly Updates - **Liquor Sector**: The liquor sector's performance was weaker than the overall food and beverage sector, with a notable decline of 2.35%. The report mentions the release of a market-oriented operational plan by Kweichow Moutai, which aims to stabilize retail prices and enhance sales channels [2][10] - **Consumer Goods**: The report indicates a positive outlook for snack foods, with significant gains in stocks such as "Good Idea" and "Kangbiter" [3][12] Investment Recommendations - **Liquor Sector**: Recommended stocks include Kweichow Moutai, Luzhou Laojiao, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Gujing Gongjiu, with a focus on potential sales exceeding expectations during the Spring Festival [2][10][17] - **Consumer Goods**: Emphasis on the importance of stocking for the Spring Festival, with recommendations for companies like Wei Long and Wanchen Group, as well as monitoring new product launches and channel adjustments [3][12][18] Sector and Stock Performance - The report provides detailed performance metrics for various sectors, indicating that the processed food and baking sectors also faced declines, with specific stocks like Weizhi Xiang and Kemei Foods showing some resilience [15][19] - The report notes that the dynamic price-to-earnings ratio for the food and beverage sector is currently at 21 times, ranking it 24th among primary industries [24]

Bond Market Investment Rating The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. Core Views - As the annual report and performance forecast disclosure window opens, the market is expected to return to the performance mainline, with the sustainability of theme investments likely to weaken and valuation factors expected to strengthen [1][21]. - In the past week, after the equity market's volume increased and prices soared, the market style is expected to enter a stage of balanced development. The small and medium - cap stocks showed strong performance, and the market style is expected to shift from theme - driven to balanced allocation [1][10]. - Recently, the volatility and volume - price correlation style has been strong, while valuation factors have not been fully priced. Investors need to seize strong varieties while strengthening drawdown control and valuation constraints [2][11]. - The spring market is not over yet. High - quality companies with solid fundamentals and better - than - expected performance are expected to achieve excess returns and become the core mainline in the second half of the spring market [3][21]. Summary by Directory 1. Convertible Bond Weekly Thinking - **Market Style and Allocation Tendency**: After the equity market's volume increased and prices soared, the market style is expected to enter a stage of balanced development. The small and medium - cap stocks showed strong performance. The market style is expected to shift from theme - driven to balanced allocation, and the convertible bond market style is expected to return to relative balance with the equity market [1][10]. - **Style Performance and Strategy**: The volatility and volume - price correlation style has been strong, while valuation factors have not been fully priced. The volatility style is relatively stable, but the momentum and volume - price correlation styles are weakened by some targets. Investors need to seize strong varieties while strengthening drawdown control and valuation constraints [2][11]. - **Fund Flow and Preference**: In the past week, the risk preference of funds continued to be cautious, and the allocation idea was still centered on defense and stability. Bond ETFs were actively traded, and the market was in a stage of high - level shock with obvious industry and style rotation characteristics [12]. - **Future Market Outlook**: As the annual report and performance forecast disclosure window opens, the market is expected to return to the performance mainline. High - quality companies with solid fundamentals and better - than - expected performance are expected to achieve excess returns, mainly due to the mean - reversion of market sentiment, the change of incremental fund attributes, and the return of the valuation constraint mechanism [3][21]. 1.1 Convertible Bond Market - **Index Performance**: Different convertible bond indexes showed different performance in different time periods. For example, the Wind Convertible Bond Information Technology Index had a weekly increase of 2.52%, and the Wind Convertible Bond High - price Index had a weekly increase of 3.45% [23]. 1.2 Convertible Bond Individual Securities - **Ranking of Individual Securities**: The report presents the top ten and bottom ten individual convertible bonds in terms of weekly gains and losses, such as Huayi Convertible Bond leading the gainers and Zai 22 Convertible Bond leading the losers [24][26]. 1.3 Convertible Bond Valuation - **Valuation Trends**: The report shows the valuation trends of bond - type, balanced, and equity - type convertible bonds, as well as the valuation trends of convertible bonds with different parities [28][30][34]. 1.4 Convertible Bond Price - **Price Indicators**: The report shows the proportion trend of high - price bonds and the median price trend of convertible bonds [31][38][39].

Group 1: Company Overview - The report focuses on Yubang Electric (688597), which has been deeply engaged in the smart power sector for thirty years, with growth potential in energy storage and low-altitude applications [3]. - The company is expected to see revenue growth from 1,004 million in 2025 to 1,897 million in 2027, with growth rates of 7%, 36%, and 39% respectively [4]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to increase from 77 million in 2025 to 196 million in 2027, with growth rates of -30%, 57%, and 61% respectively [4]. Group 2: Industry Insights - The smart meter bidding is anticipated to exceed expectations, with a year-on-year investment increase of 40% from the State Grid during the 14th Five-Year Plan [3]. - The energy storage capacity is well-prepared, with orders gradually increasing, and low-altitude inspections are expected to benefit from the construction of smart grids, leading to accelerated growth [3]. - The report highlights the importance of authoritative information sources in the context of changing search logic, emphasizing their significance in data training and commercialization [7]. Group 3: Catalysts and Opportunities - Key catalysts for Yubang Electric include the smart meter bidding, the ramp-up of energy storage orders, and the expansion of low-altitude economic applications [4]. - The gaming industry is also highlighted, with a focus on new game launches as a significant opportunity for growth, particularly for companies like Century Huatong and Giant Network [6]. - The report suggests monitoring authoritative information publishing institutions as potential investment opportunities [9].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [6] Core Insights - The report highlights accelerated integration in the US fusion industry, with frequent technological breakthroughs and a continuous strengthening of the "engineering" logic [1] - International cooperation is advancing, with significant policy support at both national and international levels, emphasizing the strategic urgency of major economies in seizing future energy dominance [1][13][17] - The report notes substantial progress in various technological pathways, particularly in Tokamak device construction and other fusion technology routes, indicating a robust trajectory towards commercialization [2][19][25] Policy Insights - National policies are increasingly supportive of fusion energy, with the Chinese government explicitly including fusion technology in its "14th Five-Year Plan" [1][11] - A cooperation agreement between China and France has been established, marking a new phase in international collaboration on fusion technology [13][14] - South Korea has advanced its fusion energy goals by moving the timeline for fusion power generation from the 2050s to the 2030s, highlighting the urgency among global economies [17][18] Industry Developments - Significant advancements in Tokamak devices include the completion of key plasma control coils for the JT-60SA, which is set to facilitate high-parameter experiments in 2026 [2][19] - The CRAFT facility has successfully passed its first performance test, confirming that its core components meet design specifications [21] - China's ITER project has officially commenced mass production of its first wall components, a critical step in the development of fusion reactors [22] Capital Market Activity - The US fusion industry is experiencing rapid consolidation, with notable mergers such as Trump Media and Technology Group's acquisition of TAE Technologies, which is set to launch the world's largest commercial fusion power plant [3][27][29] - Initial public offerings and significant funding rounds for startups in the fusion sector are on the rise, indicating growing investor confidence in fusion technology [3][33][36] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on midstream equipment companies such as Lianchuang Optoelectronics, Xuguang Electronics, and others, as well as upstream material suppliers like Yongding Co. and West Superconducting [4][37]