金融工程周报 $$\pm\nwarrow\pm\nwarrow\pm\nwarrow\pm\nwarrow\pm\nwarrow\pm\nwarrow\pm$$ 黄金持续上涨，商品基金录得较大涨幅 [Table_Author] 证券分析师：刘晓锋 电话：13401163428 E-MAIL：liuxf@tpyzq.com 执业资格证书编码：S1190522090001 研究助理：孙弋轩 电话：18910596766 E-MAIL：sunyixuan@tpyzq.com 一般证券业务登记编码：S1190123080008 内容摘要 太 平 洋 证 券 股 份 有 限 公 司 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 守正 出奇 宁静 致远 [Table_Title] [Table_Summary] [Table_Message]2025-03-16 金 融 工 程 周 报 ◼ 大类资产市场概况：1）权益：本周 A 股市场中上证指数收盘 3419.56，涨跌幅 1.39%， 深证成指、中小板指数、创业板指、上证 50、沪深 300、中证 500、中证 1000、中证 2000、 北证 50 涨跌幅 ...

2025 年 03 月 14 日 投资策略 证券分析师：张冬冬 E-MAIL：zhangdd@tpyzq.com 分析师登记编号：S1190522040001 证券研究助理：徐梓铭 E-MAIL：xuzm@tpyzq.com 一般证券业务登记编号：S1190123050005 债券市场：各期限利率债涨跌分化，短端下跌长端上涨。各期限利率 债普涨，长端涨幅大于短端。基本面上债市已完全计入降息预期，技术面 10 年期国债在触及半年线的技术支撑位后企稳，多头可在控制风险的同 时可尝试进行建仓。 股票市场：市场开盘震荡下跌，尾盘拉升跌幅收窄，大盘风格好于小 盘。从技术上来看，科技板块的长线牛市并未结束，但短期内交易较为拥 挤，容易呈现出暴涨暴跌的走势，投资者可适当获利了结，关注红利、消 费、医疗等低位股。 美股：美股三大指数涨跌分化，CPI 数据放缓，纳指 收涨 1.22%。美股中期调整应未结束，维持美股月度级别调整的判断。美 国滞胀若隐若现，"美国例外论"受到市场质疑，市场从 Trump Put 交易 转向 Trump Recession。市场恐慌加剧，但长期美股牛市基本面不改，投 资者应静待美股的长期买点出现。 ...

投资策略 策略日报(2025.03.14) 大类资产跟踪 E-MAIL：zhangdd@tpyzq.com 分析师登记编号：S1190522040001 证券研究助理：徐梓铭 E-MAIL：xuzm@tpyzq.com 一般证券业务登记编号：S1190123050005 策 略 研 究 太 平 洋 证 2025 年 03 月 14 日 交易策略 证券分析师：张冬冬 债券市场：各期限利率债普跌，长端下跌大于长端。各期限利率债 普涨，长端涨幅大于短端。基本面上债市已完全计入降息预期，技术面 10 年期国债在触及半年线的技术支撑位后企稳，多头可在控制风险的同 时可尝试进行建仓。 券 股 份 有 限 公 司 证 券 研 究 报 告 股票市场：A 股放量上涨，沪指创年内新高，消费与金融板块领涨。 从技术上来看，科技板块的长线牛市并未结束，但短期内交易较为拥挤， 容易呈现出暴涨暴跌的走势，投资者可适当获利了结，关注红利、消费、 医疗等低位股。 美股：美股三大指数创半年新低，纳指跌近 2。美股中 期调整应未结束，维持美股月度级别调整的判断。美国滞胀若隐若现，"美 国例外论"受到市场质疑，市场从 Trump Put 交易转向 ...

Group 1 - The report emphasizes that domestic policies are addressing long-term pain points, while the US is facing a "detox" period and trade uncertainties. This creates a favorable environment for large-cap quality stocks in the domestic market [1][2][3] - Key policy initiatives include the introduction of childcare subsidies and a strong focus on boosting consumption and investment efficiency, which are expected to enhance domestic demand [1][15] - The report notes that the expectation of monetary easing through interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions is being maintained, with social financing data indicating weak demand from both households and enterprises [2][16] Group 2 - The report anticipates a style shift in the market, predicting that large-cap stocks will outperform small-cap stocks in the coming months, with a focus on low-position sectors such as consumption, pharmaceuticals, and dividends [3][17] - It highlights that the TMT sector is showing signs of crowding out, while the consumption sector has a more favorable chip structure, indicating better potential for growth [3][18] - The report also points out that the options market sentiment is stronger for large-cap indices compared to small-cap indices, suggesting a bullish outlook for large-cap stocks [3][18] Group 3 - The report discusses the current state of the US market, indicating a potential temporary rebound but warns of ongoing mid-term adjustments, advising investors to remain cautious [7][31] - It identifies several fundamental risks for the US market, including the unpredictability of trade policies and the potential decline in government spending, which could impact economic growth [7][31] - The report suggests that while the private sector remains strong, a slowdown in government spending could challenge the prevailing narrative of the US economic exception [7][31] Group 4 - The report provides insights on other asset classes, noting that gold is in a bullish trend with a support level at $2875, while copper prices are influenced by domestic production cuts but face high inventory levels [8][38] - It advises caution in pursuing copper investments due to weak demand signals despite recent price increases [8][38]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the textile and apparel industry, indicating a "Look Forward" investment rating [1]. Core Insights - The implementation of fertility subsidy policies is expected to stimulate demand in the maternal and infant market, presenting investment opportunities in children's clothing and personal care sectors [4]. - The textile and apparel sector is entering a recovery phase driven by policy incentives and improved consumer confidence, with a better macroeconomic environment compared to 2024 [5]. - The report suggests that the market's concerns regarding tariff impacts on manufacturing are overestimated, as companies have adapted to previous tariff changes [5]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 1.39%, while the textile and apparel sector rose by 3.95%, outperforming the index by 2.55 percentage points [6][15]. - The beauty and personal care sector saw the highest increase at 8.18%, indicating strong market performance [6][15]. Industry Data Tracking - Retail data shows a total retail sales figure of 45,171 billion yuan in December, with a year-on-year growth of 3.7% [21]. - The Cotlook A index for cotton rose by 4.4% to 13,922, while the China cotton price index increased by 0.5% to 14,904 [26]. Company Dynamics - 361 Degrees reported a 19.6% year-on-year revenue increase to 10.07 billion yuan, with a net profit increase of 19.5% to 1.15 billion yuan [3]. - Yuyuan Group's FY24 revenue grew by 3.7% to 8.18 billion USD, with a net profit increase of 42.8% to 390 million USD [3]. - Huali Group's revenue increased by 19.35% to 24 billion yuan, with a net profit growth of 20% to 3.84 billion yuan [3]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on high-quality companies in the textile and apparel sector, such as Anta Sports and 361 Degrees, as well as companies with strong dividend yields and favorable policy impacts [11].

相关研究报告 2025 年 03 月 17 日 行业周报 看好/维持 农林牧渔 农林牧渔 周报（第 11 期）：粮价上涨&猪鸡奶价低迷，养殖关注产能去化 ◼ 走势比较 (20%) (12%) (4%) 4% 12% 20% 24/3/18 24/5/29 24/8/9 24/10/20 24/12/31 25/3/13 ◼ 推荐公司及评级 | 登海种业 | 买入 | | --- | --- | | 牧原股份 | 买入 | | 苏垦农发 | 买入 | <<农业周报（第 10 期）：农产品贸易 加征关税，粮价有望继续上涨>>-- 2025-03-10 <<周报（第 9 期）：养殖产能去化，估 值底部，长期投资机会显现>>-- 2025-03-03 <<美国奶牛感染禽流感事件梳理及 对食品安全的影响>>--2025-02-17 证券分析师：程晓东 电话：010-88321761 E-MAIL：chengxd@tpyzq.com 分析师登记编号：S1190511050002 报告摘要 一、市场回顾 农业板块行情表现优于大市，其中渔业和动保子行业涨幅领先。1、 上周，申万农业指数上涨 2.84%，同期，上证综指上涨 1 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the machinery industry, expecting overall returns to exceed the CSI 300 index by more than 5% in the next six months [49]. Core Viewpoints - The humanoid robot industry is experiencing continuous catalysts, with significant advancements in technology and increasing policy support, indicating potential investment opportunities within the supply chain [4][13]. - Recent developments include Elon Musk's announcement regarding the "Starship" carrying the "Optimus" humanoid robot to Mars, and the launch of the GO-1 model by Zhiyuan, which enhances robots' learning capabilities [4][13]. - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on investment opportunities within the humanoid robot supply chain as technology is expected to rapidly iterate and progress towards mass production [4][13]. Summary by Sections Industry Opinion and Investment Suggestions - The humanoid robot sector is highlighted as a key area for investment, with various companies making significant technological advancements and receiving government support [4][13]. Industry Key News - The report notes a decline in the tower crane rental industry's utilization rates and rental price index due to seasonal factors, indicating a challenging environment for the engineering machinery sector [14]. - The report also mentions the successful launch of the SQS250 truck-mounted crane by XCMG, which is expected to contribute to infrastructure development along the "Belt and Road" initiative [15][17]. Key Company Announcements - The report details the financial performance of several companies, including Guozhi Technology, which reported a revenue increase of 43.82% year-on-year, and Wantong Hydraulic, which saw a decline in revenue but an increase in net profit [32]. - Strategic partnerships are being formed, such as the collaboration between Wuzhou Xinchun and Hangzhou Xinjian to enhance product offerings in the AI hardware sector [33]. Market Performance Review - During the period from March 10 to March 14, the CSI 300 index rose by 1.6%, while the machinery sector saw a modest increase of 0.1%, ranking 28th among all primary industries [39].

食品饮料 2025 年 03 月 16 日 行业周报 看好/维持 食品饮料 消费政策预期提振，关注估值修复机会 走势比较 (30%) (20%) (10%) 0% 10% 20% 24/3/18 24/5/29 24/8/9 24/10/20 24/12/31 25/3/13 子行业评级 | 酒类 | 无评级 | | --- | --- | | 饮料 | 无评级 | | 食品 | 无评级 | |  推荐公司及评级 | | | 泸州老窖 | 买入 | | 山西汾酒 | 买入 | | 今世缘 | 买入 | | 迎驾贡酒 | 买入 | | 卫龙美味 | 买入 | | 东鹏饮料 | 买入 | | 甘源食品 | 买入 | | 立高食品 | 买入 | 相关研究报告 <<东鹏饮料：全年圆满收官，来年高 增可期>>--2025-03-10 <<蜜雪冰城：供应链壁垒与下沉红利 双轮驱动，全球化打开长期空间>>-- 2025-03-04 <<莲花控股：利润表现亮眼，调味品 主业份额持续提升>>--2025-01-27 证券分析师：郭梦婕 E-MAIL：guomj@tpyzq.com 分析师登记编号：S1190523080002 ...

普洛药业(000739) 昨收盘:15.28 医药生物 原料药制剂一体化布局加速，CDMO 有望迎来新通胀时代 走势比较 (20%) (8%) 4% 16% 28% 40% 24/3/18 24/5/29 24/8/9 24/10/20 24/12/31 25/3/13 股票数据 2025 年 03 月 17 日 公司深度研究 买入/维持 | 总股本/流通(亿股) | 11.69/11.69 | | --- | --- | | 总市值/流通(亿元) | 178.67/178.61 | | 12 个月内最高/最低价 | 18.96/12.23 | | (元) | | 相关研究报告 <<普洛药业（000739）2021 年一季报 点评：Q1 业绩超预期，产能建设进入 提速期>>--2021-04-20 <<普洛药业（000739）2020 年年报点 评：全年业绩略预期，CDMO 业务进入 加速期>>--2021-03-12 <<普洛药业（000739）2020 年三季报 点评：Q3 业绩符合预期，公司业务结 构改善明显>>--2020-10-22 证券分析师：周豫 E-MAIL：zhouyua@tpyzq.com ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [1][5] Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 4.57 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 6.34%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.562 billion, down 4.39% year-on-year [3][4] - The company plans to distribute a dividend of 5.23 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 1.09 billion, which represents 70% of the net profit for the year [3][4] - The company has received a government document confirming the reimbursement of operational maintenance fees, which amounts to 340 million, indicating a positive outlook for future maintenance fee policies [5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Total revenue for 2024 was 4.57 billion, down 6.34% year-on-year - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.562 billion, a decrease of 4.39% year-on-year - Basic earnings per share were 0.75 yuan, with a weighted ROE of 15.52% [3][4] Business Operations - The company manages 306.78 kilometers of highways, with a total of 295.88 kilometers when considering equity stakes [4] - Key revenue contributors include: - Fokai Expressway: 1.495 billion - Jingzhu Expressway (Guangzhou-Zhuhai section): 1.08 billion - Guanghui Expressway: 1.925 billion [4] Future Outlook - The company aims for a revenue target of 4.447 billion for 2025, which is lower than the actual revenue for 2024 [4] - The estimated total investment for the expansion of Guanghui Expressway is 30.5 billion, with the company responsible for approximately 5.448 billion in capital contributions [4]