2026 年 01 月 25 日 正极材料不断突破，镍钴自供能力强化 —格林美（002340.SZ）公司动态研究报告 买入(首次) 投资要点 分析师：黎江涛 S1050521120002 lijt@cfsc.com.cn | 基本数据 | 2026-0 1-2 3 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价（元） | 9.66 | | 总市值（亿元） | 493 | | 总股本（百万股） | 5103 | | 流通股本（百万股） | 5073 | | 52 周价格范围（元） | 5.85-9.66 | | 日均成交额（百万元） | 1094.59 | ▌ 三元材料受益于需求结构化升级，技术持续突破 伴随 eVOTL、人形机器人、穿戴式 AI 设备的兴起与固态电池 的产业化实践，全球高镍及超高镍三元前驱体出货量占比提 升，公司三元材料业务有望受益。2025 年前三季度，公司镍 钴前驱体出货 12 万余吨，正极材料实现出货 1.7 万余吨。公 司在高端前驱体方面持续突破，超致密高镍及超高镍前驱体 已通过量产认证并实现数十吨级出货，固态电池用富锂锰基 前驱体进入吨级验证阶段。2025 年 7 月，公司全球首款超高 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and it is maintained [8] Core Insights - The company disclosed its 2025 earnings forecast, expecting a net profit attributable to shareholders of between 150 million and 200 million yuan, a significant turnaround from a loss of 710.95 million yuan in the previous year [2][6] - The net profit, excluding non-recurring gains and losses, is projected to be between 146 million and 196 million yuan [2][6] - The company received significant subsidies for coalbed methane production, contributing positively to profits [13] - The production projects are progressing steadily, with a projected production increase of 98% year-on-year in 2025 [13] - The rapid growth in gas production is expected to lead to a decrease in production costs [13] - Coalbed methane and other unconventional gas sources are becoming important growth drivers for natural gas supply in China [13] Summary by Sections Earnings Forecast - The company anticipates a net profit of 150 million to 200 million yuan for 2025, compared to a loss of 710.95 million yuan in the previous year [2][6] - The expected net profit after excluding non-recurring items is between 146 million and 196 million yuan [2][6] Production and Cost Insights - The company is set to experience a 98% year-on-year increase in production volume in 2025, with daily gas production expected to exceed 3 million cubic meters by the end of the year [13] - The cost of gas production is projected to decrease due to advancements in technology and operational efficiencies [13] Market Outlook - Unconventional gas sources, particularly coalbed methane, are expected to play a crucial role in enhancing China's natural gas supply security [13] - The company’s projects are strategically located near significant gas fields, which may provide further production guidance and economic benefits [13] Financial Projections - The expected EPS for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 0.57 yuan, 1.41 yuan, and 2.56 yuan respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 30.14X, 12.13X, and 6.70X [13]

2026 年 01 月 25 日 公司研究 评级：买入(维持) 研究所： 证券分析师： 刘熹 S0350523040001 liux10@ghzq.com.cn 联系人 ： 唐锦珂 S0350125070014 tangjk@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 预计 2025 年营收同比增长约 25%，盈利能力稳 步上升 ——飞荣达（300602）2025 年度业绩预告点评 最近一年走势 | 相对沪深 | 表现 300 | | 2026/01/23 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 表现 | | 1M | 3M | 12M | | 飞荣达 | | 10.0% | 13.8% | 75.8% | | 沪深 300 | | 1.8% | 2.1% | 23.6% | | 市场数据 | 2026/01/23 | | --- | --- | | 当前价格（元） | 34.75 | | 周价格区间（元） 52 | 15.59-38.20 | | 总市值（百万） | 20,219.75 | | 流通市值（百万） | 13,740.28 | | 总股本（万股） | ...

研究所： 证券分析师： 林加力 S0350524100005 linjl01@ghzq.com.cn 证券分析师： 徐凝碧 S0350524110001 xunb@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 2025Q4 单季度营收增速达到 16%，灵活调整金 2026 年 01 月 25 日 公司研究 评级：买入(维持) 融资产结构 ——南京银行（601009）2025 年业绩快报点评 最近一年走势 | 相对沪深 | 300 表现 | | 2026/01/23 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 表现 | | 1M | 3M | 12M | | 南京银行 | | -8.9% | -7.6% | 2.2% | | 沪深 300 | | 1.8% | 2.1% | 23.6% | | 市场数据 | 2026/01/23 | | --- | --- | | 当前价格（元） | 10.35 | | 周价格区间（元） 52 | 9.91-12.20 | | 总市值（百万） | 127,962.92 | | 流通市值（百万） | 127,962.92 | | 总股本（万股 ...

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on Chuanheng Co., Ltd. with a "Buy" rating, assigning a target price of RMB 50.73 based on a 19x PE for 2026 [1][8][6]. Core Insights - Chuanheng Co., Ltd. is a leading player in the domestic phosphate chemical industry, possessing a nominal phosphate rock capacity of 3.3 million tons. The company's self-owned phosphate mines contribute to its high gross margin in the industry. The global phosphate supply-demand balance is expected to remain tight in the next 1-2 years, benefiting the company. Additionally, the anticipated growth in demand for new energy is expected to enhance the company's revenues from products such as iron phosphate, ammonium phosphate, and phosphoric acid [1][15][19]. - The company is projected to achieve a net profit of RMB 1.31 billion, RMB 1.62 billion, and RMB 1.8 billion for the years 2025-2027, representing year-on-year growth rates of 37%, 24%, and 11%, respectively [6][12]. Summary by Sections Phosphate Industry Outlook - The global expansion of phosphate rock production is slow due to limited new supply and stringent regulations in China. The demand for phosphate fertilizers is expected to grow by 3% annually starting in 2024, driven by the expansion of arable land and increasing demand for new energy [2][14]. - The report estimates a global phosphate supply-demand gap of approximately 1.78 million tons, 0.95 million tons, and 1.21 million tons for the years 2025-2027, indicating a continued tight supply situation [2][15]. New Energy Demand - The demand for phosphate chemical products related to new energy is anticipated to recover, particularly for iron phosphate and industrial-grade ammonium phosphate, as the industry shows signs of improvement due to rising storage and power battery demands [3][16]. Financial Performance and Valuation - The company has entered a growth phase, with a significant increase in net profit expected. The debt ratio has improved, and the dividend payout ratio has increased to around 70%, with projected dividend yields of 3.7%, 4.5%, and 5.0% for 2025-2027 [17][33]. - The report highlights that the company’s gross margin is among the highest in the industry, supported by its strong export capabilities and the non-fertilizer use of its phosphate products [4][28]. Market Perspective - The report contrasts its views with market concerns regarding the sustainability of tight phosphate supply. It argues that the demand for phosphate fertilizers remains robust, and the regulatory environment will continue to support high phosphate prices [5][18].

上 市 公 司 公 司 研 究 / 公 司 点 评 证 券 研 究 报 告 | 市场数据： | 2026 年 01 月 23 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | 7.44 | | 一年内最高/最低（元） | 8.76/6.21 | | 市净率 | 6.5 | | 股息率%（分红/股价） | 5.11 | 一年内股价与大盘对比走势： -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 01-23 02-23 03-23 04-23 05-23 06-23 07-23 08-23 09-23 10-23 11-23 12-23 01-23 分众传媒 沪深300指数 (收益率) 相关研究 证券分析师 林起贤 A0230519060002 linqx@swsresearch.com 任梦妮 A0230521100005 renmn@swsresearch.com 联系人 上证指数/深证成指 4,136.16/14,439.66 注："股息率"以最近一年已公布分红计算 | 基础数据: | 2025 年 09 月 30 日 | | --- | --- | | 每股净资产（元） | 1.14 | | 资产 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" investment rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance in the coming months [2][8]. Core Insights - The company is expected to benefit from the structural upgrade in demand for ternary materials, with continuous technological breakthroughs in high-nickel and ultra-high-nickel ternary precursors [5]. - The company's self-sufficiency in nickel and cobalt is strengthening, showcasing resilience amid tightening supply due to external factors such as export bans [6]. - The recycling of power batteries is projected to grow significantly, with the company actively participating in this emerging market [7]. - Revenue forecasts for the company are optimistic, with projected revenues of 39.27 billion, 48.18 billion, and 59.51 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, alongside increasing earnings per share (EPS) [8][11]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The company's stock price has shown a range from 5.85 to 9.66 yuan over the past 52 weeks, with an average daily trading volume of approximately 1.1 billion yuan [2]. Business Operations - In the first three quarters of 2025, the company shipped over 120,000 tons of nickel-cobalt precursors and 17,000 tons of cathode materials, indicating strong operational performance [5]. - The company has achieved significant production milestones, including the mass production of ultra-high nickel precursors and the establishment of a low-carbon recycling innovation lab for power batteries [7]. Financial Projections - The company is projected to see substantial growth in net profit, with estimates of 1.66 billion, 2.31 billion, and 3.53 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting a robust growth trajectory [11]. - The report anticipates a decrease in the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio from 30 times in 2025 to 14 times by 2027, suggesting increasing valuation attractiveness [8][11].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to the company [3][5]. Core Insights - The company has a strong R&D capability and a solid long-term operational experience, particularly with its evergreen IPs "Zhengtu" and "Qiuqiu" [3][31]. - The new product "Supernatural Action Group" has quickly gained popularity, showcasing significant long-term operational potential [3][38]. - Revenue is expected to grow significantly, with projections of CNY 53.7 billion, CNY 92.2 billion, and CNY 110.9 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 83.9%, 71.6%, and 20.3% [3][48]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company, founded in 2004 by Shi Yuzhu, has a strong R&D background and has transitioned from a focus on traditional gaming to mobile and international markets [8][14]. - The company has launched several successful games, including "Zhengtu" and "Qiuqiu," which have established a loyal user base [31][34]. Financial Performance - The company reported a revenue of CNY 33.7 billion in the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 51.8% [24]. - The gross margin remains high, around 90%, with sales expenses peaking during new product launches [21][28]. Product Development - The "Zhengtu" series has been a long-standing IP, continuously expanding its user base through various platforms [31][32]. - The new game "Supernatural Action Group" has been well-received, leveraging unique gameplay mechanics and strong social features to attract users [38][39]. Market Position - The company holds a market share of approximately 1.5% in the Chinese gaming industry, ranking 29th among mobile game publishers globally [14][18]. - The gaming market in China is projected to reach CNY 3507.9 billion in 2025, with a growth rate of 7.7% [14]. Future Projections - Net profit is expected to reach CNY 24.1 billion, CNY 45.3 billion, and CNY 51.0 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding EPS of CNY 1.62, CNY 3.05, and CNY 3.43 [3][48]. - The company anticipates maintaining a high gross margin and improving operational efficiency through AI integration in game development [45][49].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Merchants Bank, indicating a positive outlook for the stock [8]. Core Insights - The bank's revenue for 2025 is projected to be RMB 337.5 billion, showing a slight year-on-year increase of 0.01% [6][8]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach RMB 150.2 billion in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 1.2% [6][8]. - The bank's non-performing loan (NPL) ratio remains stable at 0.94% for the fourth quarter of 2025, with a provision coverage ratio of 392% [6][8]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue for 2025 is estimated at RMB 337.5 billion, with a year-on-year growth rate of 0.01% [7]. - Net interest income is projected to grow by 2% in 2025, contributing to the overall revenue stability [8]. - The bank's return on equity (ROE) is expected to decline to 13.43% in 2025, down from 14.49% in 2024 [7][12]. - The provision coverage ratio is forecasted to decrease to 391.79% by 2026, indicating a potential increase in credit risk [7][12]. - The bank's earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be RMB 5.70 in 2025, with a gradual increase to RMB 6.07 by 2027 [7][12]. Market Position and Valuation - The current price-to-book (PB) ratio for China Merchants Bank is 0.76, suggesting that the stock is undervalued relative to its book value [8]. - The dividend yield is approximately 5.4%, which is attractive for income-focused investors [9][8]. - The bank's stock performance is influenced by broader market trends, particularly in the context of index fund flows [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Merchants Bank (招商银行) [3] Core Insights - The bank's revenue for 2025 is projected to be RMB 337.5 billion, showing a slight year-on-year increase of 0.01% [6][8] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach RMB 150.2 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 1.2% [6][8] - The bank's non-performing loan (NPL) ratio remains stable at 0.94%, with a provision coverage ratio decreasing by 14 percentage points to 392% [6][8] - The report highlights a recovery in core revenue, particularly in net interest income, which is expected to grow by 2% in 2025 [8] - The bank's stock price is currently trading at a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 0.76, with a dividend yield of approximately 5.4%, indicating strong value [8][9] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total operating income is projected to be RMB 337.5 billion for 2025, with a slight increase expected in subsequent years [7] - The net interest income is forecasted to be RMB 215.6 billion in 2025, with a growth rate of 2% [7][13] - The bank's return on equity (ROE) is expected to decline to 13.43% in 2025, down from 14.49% in 2024 [7][13] - The report anticipates a gradual increase in net profit growth rates for 2025-2027, with estimates of 1.2%, 2.5%, and 3.6% respectively [8][13]