Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China State Construction International (830 HK) with a target price of HKD 2.10, reflecting a potential upside of 28.8% based on a projected P/E ratio of 6.0 times for FY25 [4][5][14]. Core Views - The company's FY24 net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 12.0% year-on-year to HKD 650 million, although this was below market expectations of HKD 780 million and HKD 770 million, primarily due to a slowdown in the Hong Kong office building curtain wall projects and a decrease in general contracting revenue [1][4]. - Despite a temporary slowdown in profit growth, the long-term development outlook remains solid, with a target to achieve new contract amounts, revenue, and net profit of at least HKD 35 billion, HKD 25 billion, and HKD 3 billion respectively by 2030 [4][5]. Financial Performance Summary - FY24 total revenue decreased by 6.5% year-on-year to HKD 8.1 billion, with curtain wall revenue in Hong Kong and Macau growing only 8.4% to HKD 4.97 billion, compared to a 27.4% increase in FY23 [1][5]. - New contract value for FY24 fell by 4.2% year-on-year to HKD 11.5 billion, with a significant decline of 28.3% in the Hong Kong and Macau regions, while mainland new contracts rose by 33.2% to HKD 4.2 billion [2][5]. - The company has identified significant growth potential in its BIPV (Building-Integrated Photovoltaics) business, which has begun to generate electricity in various projects, aligning with national carbon reduction goals and international ESG requirements [3][4]. Financial Data Overview - Key financial metrics for FY24 include: - Revenue: HKD 8.1 billion - Net profit: HKD 650 million - Earnings per share: HKD 0.29 - Dividend per share: HKD 0.10, with a dividend yield of 6.0% [5][12]. - Forecasts for FY25 and FY26 project revenues of HKD 9.9 billion and HKD 11.6 billion, respectively, with net profits expected to reach HKD 789 million and HKD 964 million [5][12].

证券研究报告 | 公司点评报告 2025 年 03 月 19 日 华润啤酒（00291.HK） 目标估值：33 港元 当前股价：28.5 港元 基础数据 | 总股本（百万股） | 3244 | | --- | --- | | 香港股（百万股） | 3244 | | 总市值（十亿港元） | 92.5 | | 香港股市值（十亿港元） | 92.5 | | 每股净资产（港元） | 11.7 | | ROE（TTM） | 15.0 | | 资产负债率 | 48.7% | | 主要股东 | CRC Bluesky Limited | | 主要股东持股比例 | 51.91% | 股价表现 24 年稳定收官，25 年改善可期 消费品/食品饮料 面对复杂多变的市场环境、天气、低端市场容量收缩及基数影响，公司 24 年啤 酒销量承压但高端化跑赢行业，白酒整合初见成效，摘要大单品快速增长。25 年 1-2 月公司在高基数下取得良好开局，为全年利润恢复较快增长奠定基础。 ❑ 风险提示：极端天气影响、原材料成本上涨、高端化竞争加剧等。 财务数据与估值 | 会计年度 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 20 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for China Resources Beer is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights that the beer upgrade continues while the liquor business benefits from synergy. The company has shown resilience in its performance despite a slight decline in revenue and profit [6] - The company is undergoing a structural upgrade in its beer segment, with a focus on high-end products, which is expected to drive profit growth [6] - The liquor business is expected to contribute positively if economic conditions improve, indicating potential for future growth [6] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue for 2023 is projected at RMB 38,932 million, with a slight decline to RMB 38,635 million in 2024, followed by a recovery to RMB 39,286 million in 2025 [5][7] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to decrease from RMB 5,153 million in 2023 to RMB 4,739 million in 2024, before increasing to RMB 5,279 million in 2025 [5][7] - Earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be RMB 1.59 in 2023, decreasing to RMB 1.46 in 2024, and then increasing to RMB 1.63 in 2025 [5] - The net asset return rate is projected to decline slightly from 17.98% in 2023 to 15.29% in 2024, before stabilizing around 15.95% in 2025 [5] Business Performance Insights - The beer segment reported a revenue of RMB 36,486 million in 2024, with a slight decline in sales volume but an increase in average price per ton [6] - The high-end beer segment (priced above RMB 10) saw a 9% increase in sales volume, with notable growth in brands like Heineken and Snow [6] - The liquor segment achieved a revenue of RMB 2,150 million in 2024, with a 35% increase in sales volume for the flagship product, indicating strong market performance [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Leap Motor (09863.HK) with a target price of HKD 66, corresponding to a valuation of HKD 885 billion, which is 1.5x the estimated 2025 P/S ratio [4][7]. Core Views - Leap Motor achieved profitability in Q4 2024, with expectations for full-year profitability in 2025. Q4 2024 sales exceeded 120,000 units, leading to revenue of RMB 13.44 billion and a gross margin improvement of 6.6 percentage points year-on-year to 13.3% [1][4]. - The launch of the LEAP 3.5 technology architecture and the B10 model is expected to drive strong product cycles, with pre-sale orders for the B10 model reaching 31,688 units within 48 hours [2][4]. - A strategic partnership with FAW aims to enhance cost and scale advantages through joint development and component cooperation, potentially lowering production costs [3][4]. Financial Summary - The projected sales volume for Leap Motor is expected to exceed 500,000 units in 2025, with total revenue forecasted at RMB 54.94 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth rate of 71% [4][13]. - The company anticipates a net profit margin of 0.6% in 2025, improving to 6.2% by 2027, with net profit estimates of RMB 336 million in 2025 and RMB 6.036 billion in 2027 [4][12]. - Key financial metrics include a projected revenue of RMB 32.16 billion in 2024, increasing to RMB 54.94 billion in 2025, with a gross profit of RMB 5.968 billion and a gross margin of 10.9% [6][13].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company achieved a total revenue of 3.34 billion RMB in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 23.94%, and an adjusted net profit of 586.17 million RMB, up 59.16% year-on-year, which is at the upper limit of the previously forecasted range [7] - The imaging and design products continue to show rapid growth, with revenue from this segment reaching 2.09 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 57.12%, accounting for 62.43% of total revenue [7] - The company is leveraging AI to enhance product capabilities, resulting in a steady increase in paid user penetration, with a total of 12.61 million paid users and a penetration rate of 4.74%, up 1.09 percentage points year-on-year [7] - The company's productivity and globalization strategies are showing breakthroughs, with MAU outside mainland China reaching 94.51 million, a year-on-year increase of 21.66% [7] - The report projects adjusted net profits for 2025-2027 to be 914.27 million RMB, 1.20 billion RMB, and 1.56 billion RMB respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 29, 22, and 17 times based on the current stock price [7] Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2024 is projected at 3.34 billion RMB, with a growth rate of 23.93% for 2025 and 21.96% for 2026 [8] - The adjusted net profit is expected to grow significantly, with projections of 914.27 million RMB for 2025 and 1.20 billion RMB for 2026 [8] - The company’s gross margin improved to 68.67%, an increase of 7.25 percentage points year-on-year, driven by high-margin product revenue growth [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Buy" for Smoore International (06969.HK) [1] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 11.799 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 5.6%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.303 billion yuan, down 20.8% year-on-year [7] - The second half of 2024 saw a revenue of 6.761 billion yuan, up 11.8% year-on-year, but the net profit was 620 million yuan, down 33.2% year-on-year [7] - The gross margin for 2024 was 37.4%, a decrease of 1.3 percentage points, primarily due to changes in product mix [7] - The company is experiencing rapid growth in its proprietary brand business, with revenue reaching 2.475 billion yuan, up 34% year-on-year [7] - The HNB (Heated Not Burned) product line is expected to contribute significantly to profits, with the new product glo Hilo showing positive feedback during trials in Serbia [7] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Total revenue for 2024 was 11.799 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 8.04% in 2023 [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024 was 1.303 billion yuan, down 34.47% from 2023 [1] - Earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is projected at 0.21 yuan, with a P/E ratio of 59.07 [1] Business Segments - Revenue from proprietary brand business reached 2.475 billion yuan, up 34% year-on-year, while revenue from disposable electronic vapor products was 3.050 billion yuan, down 9.5% [7] - The company’s B2B business revenue for the second half of 2024 was 5.402 billion yuan, up 9.7% year-on-year [7] Market Trends - The report highlights a positive trend in H2 revenue growth due to stricter regulations in Europe and the US, which has led to a recovery in ODM sales [7] - The HNB market is rapidly growing, and the company is diversifying its vaporization business, including beauty and medical applications [7] Profit Forecast - The report adjusts profit forecasts for 2025 to 2027, estimating net profits of 1.636 billion yuan, 2.221 billion yuan, and 2.870 billion yuan respectively [7] - The corresponding P/E ratios for these years are projected at 47, 35, and 27 [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 15.03 HKD, indicating an expected return of over 20% within the next six months [7]. Core Insights - The company has successfully implemented a platform-based development strategy, leading to a significant increase in platform technology service revenue, which reached 3.47 billion HKD, a year-on-year growth of 103.6% [2]. - The company's net profit for 2024 is projected to be 3.80 billion HKD, reflecting a 42% increase year-on-year, despite a decline in overall revenue due to the impact of the sale of a subsidiary [1]. - The integration of AI technology into the supply chain has positioned the company as a leader in the digital transformation of key industries such as infrastructure, pharmaceuticals, and commodities [3][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company's total revenue for 2024 is expected to be 9.19 billion HKD, a decrease of 4.6% year-on-year, primarily due to the divestment of Wuxi Guojin Commercial Factoring Co., Ltd. [1]. - The platform technology service revenue has become a major growth driver, accounting for 37.7% of total revenue in 2024, up from 17.7% in 2023 [2]. Strategic Development - The company has established strong partnerships with local state-owned enterprises, enhancing its platform-based financial services and increasing the number of funding partners to 163, a growth of 24.4% [2]. - The company is actively exploring new markets, including e-commerce and robotics, with potential market sizes exceeding 10 trillion HKD and over 10 million potential clients [4][5]. AI and Technology Integration - The company has integrated its cloud platform with advanced AI models, enhancing its capabilities in supply chain management and decision-making processes [4]. - The company has also secured significant computational resources to support its AI initiatives, further solidifying its position in the digital ecosystem [4]. Future Projections - Revenue forecasts for FY2025 and FY2026 have been adjusted to 11.11 billion HKD and 13.46 billion HKD, respectively, with net profit projections of 4.98 billion HKD and 6.53 billion HKD [6]. - A new revenue forecast for FY2027 is introduced at 16.15 billion HKD, with a net profit of 8.36 billion HKD [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for Li Auto, indicating an expected relative performance above the market benchmark over the next 12-18 months [10][19]. Core Insights - Li Auto's revenue for 2024 is projected at RMB 144.5 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 17%. The fourth quarter of 2024 saw revenue of RMB 44.3 billion, up 6% year-on-year and 3% quarter-on-quarter [3][10]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024 is expected to be RMB 8 billion, down 31% year-on-year, with Q4 2024 net profit at RMB 3.5 billion, down 38% year-on-year but up 25% quarter-on-quarter [3][10]. - For Q1 2025, vehicle deliveries are anticipated to be between 88,000 and 93,000 units, representing a year-on-year increase of 9.5% to 15.7%. Total revenue for this period is expected to be between RMB 23.4 billion and RMB 24.7 billion, down 8.7% to 3.5% year-on-year [3][10]. Financial Data Summary - Key financial metrics for Li Auto from 2023 to 2027 are as follows: - Revenue (in million RMB): 2023: 123,851; 2024: 144,460; 2025E: 189,483; 2026E: 210,516; 2027E: 230,781, with year-on-year growth rates of 173.5%, 16.6%, 31.2%, 11.1%, and 9.6% respectively [2][3]. - Net Profit (in million RMB): 2023: 11,704; 2024: 8,032; 2025E: 13,146; 2026E: 15,434; 2027E: 17,955, with year-on-year growth rates of 681.7%, -31.4%, 63.7%, 16.6%, and 15.9% respectively [2][3]. - Fully Diluted EPS (in RMB): 2023: 5.52; 2024: 3.79; 2025E: 6.19; 2026E: 7.27; 2027E: 8.46 [2][3]. Market Position and Strategy - Li Auto is focusing on enhancing user experience through intensive OTA upgrades, which have led to an increase in the order proportion of the ADMax version, particularly in models priced above RMB 300,000 [3][10]. - The company is set to launch its first pure electric SUV, the Li Auto i8, in July 2025, as part of its dual-energy strategy, while also expanding its charging network with 1,874 supercharging stations and 10,008 charging poles by February 2025 [3][10].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [6] Core Views - The company is expected to see steady growth in HNB (Heated Not Burned) products in 2025, with significant contributions anticipated in the second half of the year. The potential of the aerosol medical business is also highlighted as a key component of the company's 2030 goals [11] - Revenue for 2024 is projected at 117.99 billion CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 5.3%, while net profit is expected to decline by 20.8% to 13.03 billion CNY [1][11] - The company is focusing on expanding its HNB and aerosol medical product lines, with R&D investments showing significant increases in these areas [3][11] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 117.99 billion CNY, with a net profit of 13.03 billion CNY, resulting in a net profit margin of 11.05% [1] - The company’s revenue for the fourth quarter of 2024 was 34.63 billion CNY, reflecting an 8% increase year-on-year, but a decline in profit by 42% due to high expenses [1] - The projected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 128.92 billion CNY, 151.12 billion CNY, and 173.48 billion CNY, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 16.19 billion CNY, 21.21 billion CNY, and 26.59 billion CNY [11][12] Market Potential - The global market for electronic aerosol is expected to reach 91.42 billion USD by 2029, with a CAGR of approximately 7.4% from 2024 to 2029 [4] - The heated not burned market is projected to reach 66.86 billion USD by 2029, with a CAGR of about 10.1% during the same period [4] - The aerosol medical market is anticipated to grow significantly, with the global market for pulmonary drugs and delivery devices expected to reach 93.28 billion USD by 2030 [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][5] Core Views - The company achieved a significant improvement in profitability in 2024, with total revenue reaching USD 10.259 billion, a year-on-year increase of 15.9%, driven by strong global parcel volume growth [8] - Adjusted EBITDA rose to USD 778 million, reflecting a substantial increase of 430.5%, indicating enhanced profitability [8] - The company turned a profit with a net income of USD 114 million in 2024, compared to a loss of USD 1.156 billion in 2023 [8] - The report highlights the continued improvement in domestic business profitability and the ongoing increase in overseas market share [5] Financial Performance Summary - The company’s revenue for 2024 was USD 10.259 billion, with a growth rate of 15.9% [7] - Adjusted EBITDA for 2024 was USD 778 million, showing a significant increase of 430.5% [8] - The net profit for 2024 was USD 114 million, a turnaround from a loss of USD 1.156 billion in 2023 [8] - The operating cash flow for 2024 reached USD 807 million, a year-on-year increase of 136.1% [8] Parcel Volume and Cost Control - The global parcel volume reached 24.65 billion pieces in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 31.0% [8] - The cost per parcel in Southeast Asia decreased from USD 0.67 to USD 0.57, and in China from USD 0.34 to USD 0.30, demonstrating effective cost control [8] - Despite a slight decline in revenue per parcel due to competitive pricing adjustments, overall profitability improved due to cost reductions [8] Regional Performance - Southeast Asia remains the core market with a parcel volume of 4.56 billion pieces and a market share of 28.6% [8] - In China, the parcel volume reached 19.8 billion pieces, with a market share of 11.3%, ranking sixth in the industry [8] - New markets, including the Middle East and South America, saw revenue growth of 76.1% to USD 576 million, indicating successful market expansion efforts [8]