九毛九(09922):024年经营承压,期待关店固本后的业绩回升
Guoxin Securities· 2025-03-31 01:47
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [6][26]. Core Views - The company is expected to face operational pressure in 2024, with a projected revenue of 6.07 billion yuan, a slight increase of 1.5% year-on-year, but a significant decline in core operating profit by 60.1% to 250 million yuan, and a drastic drop in net profit attributable to shareholders by 87.7% to 55.81 million yuan due to cost leverage effects [1][9]. - The company is focusing on its core brands by selling off non-core brands and optimizing its store portfolio, which includes closing underperforming locations [2][24]. - The company has committed to maintaining a dividend payout ratio of no less than 40%, with a total dividend payout rate reaching 92.5% for the year [3][24]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 6.07 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 1.5%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders fell to 55.81 million yuan, a decrease of 87.7% [1][5]. - For the second half of 2024, the company expects a revenue of 3.01 billion yuan, a decline of 3.1%, and a net loss of 16.48 million yuan, reversing from a profit of 230 million yuan in the same period of the previous year [1][9]. Brand Performance - The core brand, Tai Er, generated a revenue of 4.41 billion yuan, down 1.4% year-on-year, with same-store sales declining by 18.8%. The company opened 95 new stores while closing 39 [2][12]. - The company’s other brands, including Song Hotpot and Jiumaojiu, also faced challenges, with significant declines in same-store sales [2][12]. Cost Structure - The company is experiencing rising costs, with raw material costs accounting for 35.6% of revenue, employee costs at 28.8%, and lease depreciation at 11.7%. This cost rigidity is negatively impacting profit margins [3][21]. - The net profit margin for 2024 is projected to be 0.9%, a decrease of 6.7 percentage points from the previous year, primarily due to rising costs and impairment losses from store closures [3][21]. Future Outlook - The company is actively adapting to market changes by introducing new store formats and menu items to attract customers, while also focusing on a light-asset model for new brand incubation [4][24]. - The profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been adjusted downwards to 216 million yuan and 295 million yuan, respectively, reflecting a more cautious outlook on same-store sales and expansion pace [4][24].
蒙牛乳业(02319):经营利润率超预期,期待需求向好
Xinda Securities· 2025-03-31 01:35
Investment Rating - The report assigns a rating of "Hold" for the company, indicating that the stock price is expected to fluctuate within ±5% of the benchmark [15]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of RMB 886.75 billion in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 10.52%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 1.05 billion, down 97.8% year-on-year [2]. - The second half of 2024 saw weak demand in the dairy industry, leading to revenue pressure across various business segments, with liquid milk, ice cream, milk powder, and cheese revenues showing year-on-year changes of -9.0%, +5.0%, -11.7%, and +5.0% respectively [4]. - The decline in raw milk prices improved the gross margin, which increased by 2.4 percentage points to 39.6% for the year, despite a slight increase in overall expense ratios due to revenue decline [4]. - The company plans to increase its dividend payout ratio to 45% in 2024, focusing on profit improvement while excluding certain impairments from its dividend calculation [4]. - For 2025, the company anticipates low single-digit revenue growth, with milk prices expected to remain stable or slightly decrease, while operating profit margins are projected to remain relatively stable [4]. Financial Summary - Revenue for 2025 is projected at RMB 910 billion, with year-on-year growth of 3%, and net profit expected to reach RMB 49.53 billion, reflecting a significant increase of 4639% [5]. - The gross margin is expected to remain stable, with projections of 39.57% for 2025, 39.90% for 2026, and 40.10% for 2027 [6]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be RMB 1.26 in 2025, increasing to RMB 1.64 by 2027 [6].
光大环境(00257):造收入、减值拖累业绩,派息比率41.8%创历史新高
Guoxin Securities· 2025-03-31 01:15
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [5][12][3] Core Views - The company's revenue and profit are under pressure due to a decline in construction income and impairment factors, with a 2024 revenue of HKD 30.258 billion, down 5.71% year-on-year, and a net profit of HKD 3.377 billion, down 23.75% year-on-year [1][6] - The company has increased its dividend payout ratio to 41.8%, the highest in its history, with a total dividend of HKD 1.41 billion for 2024, reflecting improved cash flow and a commitment to returning value to shareholders [2][12] - The report projects a slight downward adjustment in profit forecasts but expects net profit growth from 2025 to 2027, with estimates of HKD 3.836 billion, HKD 4.129 billion, and HKD 4.298 billion respectively [3][12] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of HKD 30.258 billion, a decrease of 5.71% from the previous year, primarily due to a reduction in new projects [1][6] - The net profit for 2024 was HKD 3.377 billion, reflecting a decline of 23.75%, attributed to reduced construction profits and increased impairment provisions [1][6] - The gross profit margin for 2024 was 38.13%, down 4.91 percentage points from 2023, while the net profit margin was 13.13%, down 3.38 percentage points [1][6] Segment Performance - Environmental Energy Segment: Revenue of HKD 15.916 billion, down 8% year-on-year, with operational income increasing by 5% but construction income decreasing by 41% [1][8] - Environmental Water Segment: Revenue of HKD 6.847 billion, up 2% year-on-year, with construction income increasing by 17% [2][8] - Green Environmental Segment: Revenue of HKD 6.974 billion, down 6% year-on-year, with construction income significantly declining by 65% [2][8] Dividend Policy - The company has enhanced its dividend policy, with a payout ratio rising to 41.8% and a dividend of HKD 0.23 per share for 2024, compared to 30.5% in 2023 [2][12] - The absolute dividend value increased from HKD 1.35 billion in 2023 to HKD 1.41 billion in 2024, corresponding to a dividend yield of approximately 6.6% based on the closing price on March 26, 2025 [2][12]
珍酒李渡:珍酒良性调整,李渡稳扎稳打-20250331
Soochow Securities· 2025-03-31 01:05
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is undergoing a healthy adjustment, with steady growth in its product lines, particularly in the Li Du brand, which has shown resilience in a challenging market environment [7] - The company has received multiple accolades at the 112th National Spring Sugar and Wine Commodity Trade Fair, enhancing its brand reputation [7] - The financial forecasts indicate a gradual recovery in revenue and profit margins, with expectations for non-IFRS net profit to reach RMB 16.8 billion in 2025, reflecting a slight adjustment from previous estimates [7] Financial Summary - Total revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023A: RMB 7,060 million - 2024A: RMB 7,067 million - 2025E: RMB 7,304 million - 2026E: RMB 8,107 million - 2027E: RMB 9,289 million - The year-on-year growth rates for total revenue are projected to be 20.56% for 2023A, 0.10% for 2024A, 3.36% for 2025E, 10.99% for 2026E, and 14.59% for 2027E [1] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted as follows: - 2023A: RMB 2,327 million - 2024A: RMB 1,324 million - 2025E: RMB 1,494 million - 2026E: RMB 1,804 million - 2027E: RMB 2,251 million - The year-on-year growth rates for net profit are projected to be 125.96% for 2023A, -43.12% for 2024A, 12.90% for 2025E, 20.71% for 2026E, and 24.77% for 2027E [1] - The company's earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be: - 2023A: RMB 0.69 - 2024A: RMB 0.39 - 2025E: RMB 0.44 - 2026E: RMB 0.53 - 2027E: RMB 0.66 [1] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to be 9.58 for 2023A, 16.84 for 2024A, 14.92 for 2025E, 12.36 for 2026E, and 9.91 for 2027E [1]
达势股份:2024年业绩公告点评:新增长市场势能强劲,经营效率持续提升-20250331
Soochow Securities· 2025-03-31 00:23
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 4.314 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 41.41%, and a net profit of 55.20 million yuan, marking a turnaround from a loss [7] - The company is expanding its store network, with a total of 1,008 stores by the end of 2024, an increase of 240 stores or 31.25% year-on-year [7] - The new growth markets are showing strong momentum, contributing to 61.76% of total revenue, up 12.41 percentage points year-on-year [7] - The company plans to open approximately 300 new stores in 2025, with 82 already opened by mid-March 2025 [7] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 55.44 billion yuan, 70.13 billion yuan, and 87.41 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 28.52%, 26.48%, and 24.65% respectively [1][7] - Net profit forecasts for the same period are 132.55 million yuan, 241.18 million yuan, and 416.12 million yuan, with growth rates of 140.15%, 81.95%, and 72.54% respectively [1][7] - The company's gross margin is expected to improve, with a projected gross margin of 72.9% in 2024 [7]
达势股份(01405):2024年业绩公告点评:新增长市场势能强劲,经营效率持续提升
Soochow Securities· 2025-03-30 23:43
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [7] Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 4.314 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 41.41%, and a net profit of 55.20 million yuan, marking a turnaround from a loss [7] - The company is expanding its store network, with a significant increase in new growth markets, which contributed to a revenue share increase of 12.41 percentage points to 61.76% [7] - The company plans to open approximately 300 new stores in 2025, with 82 already opened by mid-March 2025, indicating strong growth momentum [7] Revenue and Profit Forecast - Revenue is projected to grow from 55.44 billion yuan in 2025 to 87.41 billion yuan in 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 28.52%, 26.48%, and 24.65% respectively [7] - Net profit is expected to increase significantly, from 132.55 million yuan in 2025 to 416.12 million yuan in 2027, with growth rates of 140.15%, 81.95%, and 72.54% respectively [7] Financial Metrics - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from 1.01 yuan in 2025 to 3.18 yuan in 2027 [7] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 94.05 in 2025 to 29.96 in 2027, indicating improving valuation as earnings grow [7]
珍酒李渡(06979):珍酒良性调整,李渡稳扎稳打
Soochow Securities· 2025-03-30 23:31
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is undergoing a healthy adjustment, with steady growth expected for the Li Du brand. The report anticipates a gradual recovery in demand after a period of consolidation [7] - The company has received multiple awards, indicating strong brand recognition and market positioning [7] - Revenue and profit forecasts have been slightly adjusted due to increased competition in the mid-range liquor segment, but the long-term outlook remains positive [7] Financial Summary - Total revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023A: 7,060 million RMB - 2024A: 7,067 million RMB - 2025E: 7,304 million RMB - 2026E: 8,107 million RMB - 2027E: 9,289 million RMB - Year-on-year growth rates are expected to be 20.56%, 0.10%, 3.36%, 10.99%, and 14.59% respectively [1] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted as: - 2023A: 2,327 million RMB - 2024A: 1,324 million RMB - 2025E: 1,494 million RMB - 2026E: 1,804 million RMB - 2027E: 2,251 million RMB - Year-on-year growth rates are projected at 125.96%, -43.12%, 12.90%, 20.71%, and 24.77% respectively [1] - Non-IFRS net profit estimates are: - 2023A: 1,622.60 million RMB - 2024A: 1,676.28 million RMB - 2025E: 1,681.85 million RMB - 2026E: 1,929.36 million RMB - 2027E: 2,288.12 million RMB - Year-on-year growth rates are 35.52%, 3.31%, 0.33%, 14.72%, and 18.59% respectively [1] - The latest diluted EPS is projected to be: - 2023A: 0.69 RMB - 2024A: 0.39 RMB - 2025E: 0.44 RMB - 2026E: 0.53 RMB - 2027E: 0.66 RMB [1] - The P/E ratios based on the latest diluted EPS are: - 2023A: 9.58 - 2024A: 16.84 - 2025E: 14.92 - 2026E: 12.36 - 2027E: 9.91 [1]
腾讯控股(00700):4Q24报告点评:收入、利润均超预期,AI基建投入加大,静待应用场景改造推进
Huachuang Securities· 2025-03-30 15:21
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tencent Holdings (00700.HK) with a target price range of HKD 547.75 to HKD 608.61 [1][5]. Core Insights - Tencent's 4Q24 financial results exceeded expectations, with revenue of CNY 172.4 billion, a year-over-year increase of 11%, and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 3%. The NON-IFRS net profit reached CNY 55.3 billion, up 30% year-over-year but down 8% quarter-over-quarter [1][8]. - The company is increasing its investment in AI infrastructure, anticipating significant advancements in application scenarios [1][34]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 4Q24, Tencent achieved revenue of CNY 1724 billion, YOY +11%, QOQ +3%, exceeding expectations by 2%. The NON-IFRS net profit was CNY 553 billion, YOY +30%, QOQ -8%, surpassing expectations by 4% [1][8]. - The total revenue forecast for 2025 is adjusted to CNY 721.8 billion, with a YOY growth of 9%. The NON-IFRS net profit forecast is CNY 225.9 billion, reflecting a YOY increase of 16.4% [5][6]. Business Segments - **Gaming**: Revenue reached CNY 492 billion, YOY +20%, marking the highest growth rate since 2021. The international gaming segment contributed CNY 160 billion, YOY +15%, while the domestic market generated CNY 332 billion, YOY +23% [4][20]. - **Social Networks**: Revenue was CNY 298 billion, YOY +6%, driven by mobile game income and TME membership growth [27]. - **Marketing Services**: Revenue reached CNY 350 billion, YOY +17%, supported by the WeChat ecosystem [31]. - **Financial Technology and Enterprise Services**: Revenue was CNY 561 billion, YOY +3%, meeting expectations [33]. Capital Expenditure and AI Investment - Tencent's CAPEX for the quarter was CNY 39 billion, a significant increase of 418% YOY and 225% QOQ, indicating a strong commitment to AI infrastructure [33][34]. - The company is focusing on enhancing its AI capabilities, with plans to integrate self-developed and open-source models into its applications [34]. Shareholder Returns - Tencent announced a cash dividend of CNY 41 billion, corresponding to a dividend rate of approximately 17%, and plans to repurchase over CNY 80 billion worth of shares [38].
李宁(02331):逆势之下运营能力出色,分红率稳步提升
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities· 2025-03-30 14:45
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Add" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance relative to the market [2][27]. Core Insights - The company demonstrated strong operational capabilities despite challenging market conditions, with a steady increase in dividend payout ratio to approximately 50% for the year [7]. - Revenue for 2024 reached 28.68 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.9%, outperforming expectations, primarily due to a strong recovery in Q4 sales [7]. - The company’s net profit for 2024 was 3.01 billion RMB, a decrease of 5.5% year-on-year, but adjusted for a one-time impairment loss, the profit would have shown a 5% increase [7]. - The company continues to focus on enhancing brand value and product innovation, particularly in the running segment, which saw a 25% increase in sales [7]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for the upcoming years are as follows: - 2023: 27.6 billion RMB - 2024: 28.7 billion RMB - 2025E: 28.8 billion RMB - 2026E: 30.1 billion RMB - 2027E: 31.2 billion RMB - The expected growth rates for these years are 7%, 4%, 0%, 4%, and 4% respectively [6]. - The forecasted net profit for 2025 is 2.48 billion RMB, with a projected PE ratio of 17 [6][17]. - The gross margin is expected to remain stable around 49.4% for 2025, with a slight increase in operating profit margin to 12.8% [7]. Sales Performance - The company’s footwear segment generated 14.3 billion RMB in revenue, a 7% increase, while apparel revenue decreased by 2.9% to 12.05 billion RMB [7]. - E-commerce sales grew by 10.3% to 8.3 billion RMB, while direct sales saw a slight decline of 0.3% [7]. - The company’s total store count at the end of 2024 was 7,585, with a net decrease of 83 stores, indicating a strategic focus on optimizing store performance [7]. Market Comparison - The company’s market capitalization is approximately 44.36 billion HKD, with a target market value of 48.3 billion HKD for 2025, suggesting a potential upside of 9% from current levels [7][17]. - Compared to peers, the company’s projected PE for 2025 is 18, which is competitive within the industry [17].
李宁(02331):点评报告:运营提效,积极投入培育竞争力
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2025-03-30 14:27
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company has shown operational efficiency improvements and is actively investing in cultivating competitive advantages. The revenue for 2024 is projected to be 28.676 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.9%. The gross profit margin is expected to be 49.4%, with a slight increase of 1.0 percentage points. The net profit for 2024 is forecasted at 3.013 billion, a decrease of 5.5% year-on-year, but EBITDA is expected to improve by 6% [2][5] Financial Summary - **Revenue Forecast**: - 2024: 28.676 billion (+3.9%) - 2025: 28.870 billion (+0.68%) - 2026: 30.315 billion (+5.0%) - 2027: 31.747 billion (+4.72%) [2][6] - **Net Profit Forecast**: - 2024: 3.013 billion (-5.46%) - 2025: 2.616 billion (-13.18%) - 2026: 2.923 billion (+11.75%) - 2027: 3.217 billion (+10.04%) [2][6] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - 2024: 1.17 - 2025: 1.01 - 2026: 1.13 - 2027: 1.24 [2][6] - **Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratio**: - 2024: 13.6 - 2025: 15.6 - 2026: 14.0 - 2027: 12.7 [2][6] Operational Insights - The company has reported a stable revenue performance with a focus on enhancing operational quality. The e-commerce channel has shown a growth rate of 10.3% year-on-year, while the direct sales channel has seen a slight decline of 0.4%. The average store size has increased, and the average monthly sales per store have reached 300,000 RMB [5][6] - Cash flow remains strong, with operating cash flow of 5.268 billion in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 12.4%. The inventory level is healthy, with a turnover period of 4 months [5][6] Market Positioning - The company is expected to enhance its brand presence and product reputation through increased investment in professional research and development, sponsorship of various sports events, and targeting different consumer segments. The revenue growth for 2025, 2026, and 2027 is projected to be 289 billion, 303 billion, and 317 billion respectively, with a focus on maintaining its position as a leading sports brand in China [5][6]