商誉减值致 24 年利润承压，25Q1 表现超 预期 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 根据 24 年年报、25 年一季报，对 25-26 年下调收入、上调毛利率。我们预测公司 25-27年每股收益分别为 1.73、1.97、2.17元（原预测 25-26年为 1.79、1.88元）。 结合可比公司，我们认为目前公司的合理估值水平为 2025 年的 21 倍市盈率，对应 目标价为 36.33 元，维持买入评级。 风险提示：经济恢复不及预期、原奶价格持续回落导致竞争加剧、减值损失缩窄幅度不 及预期、食品安全事件风险。 （此处简单列示风险，正文需单独对风险提示详细展开描述） 公司主要财务信息 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 125,758 | 115,393 | 121,413 | 128,328 | 137,195 | | 同比增长 (%) | 2.5% | -8.2% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 6.9% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 11,873 | 1 ...

证券研究报告·公司点评报告·电力 南网储能（600995） 2025 年一季报点评：调峰水电受益于来水偏 丰，业绩略超市场预期 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 5,630 | 6,174 | 6,673 | 7,731 | 8,691 | | 同比（%） | (31.85) | 9.67 | 8.08 | 15.86 | 12.42 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 1,014 | 1,126 | 1,235 | 1,394 | 1,517 | | 同比（%） | (39.05) | 11.14 | 9.61 | 12.90 | 8.82 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 0.32 | 0.35 | 0.39 | 0.44 | 0.47 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 30.74 | 27.66 | 25.24 | 22.35 | 20.54 | [Table_Tag] [Table_ ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2] Core Views - The company's Q1 2025 revenue met expectations, while profit fell short due to initial inefficiencies in new factory operations. The new factories are expected to provide growth opportunities in the medium term as they ramp up efficiency [7][6] - The company is experiencing significant growth in new brand orders, particularly from Adidas, which is expected to enhance revenue streams. The company is now one of the few manufacturers capable of producing for both Nike and Adidas [7] - The company's core competitiveness is strengthening through diversified production locations and technological advancements, including breakthroughs in midsole technology and automation [7] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue for 2025 is projected at 27,608 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 15.0%. The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 4,148 million yuan, reflecting an 8.0% increase [6] - The gross margin is forecasted to stabilize at 25.7% in 2025, with a return on equity (ROE) of 22.0% [6] - The company has adjusted its revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 to 27,608 million, 31,762 million, and 36,301 million yuan respectively, while slightly lowering profit forecasts due to new factory efficiency issues [7]

2025 年 05 月 05 日 招商银行(600036.SH) 一波三折—招商银行 2025 年一季报点评 事件：招商银行公布 2025 年一季报，营收同比增长-3.09%，拨 备前利润同比增长-4%，归母净利润同比增长-2.08%，各项业绩指 标增速较 2024 年报均略有下行，与 2024 年一季报情景较为类 似，我们点评如下： 招商银行 2025 年一季度业绩增长主要依靠规模扩张所驱动，而 净息差同比收窄、非息收入增长放缓则对利润增长形成拖累。 规模扩张速度与去年四季度大致相当。今年一季度，招商银行 生息资产（日均余额口径）同比增长 8.7%，较 2024Q4 增速基本 持平，仍处于去年初以来较快增长阶段，其中信贷增速基本平稳， 信贷扩张节奏仍偏低，而金融投资增速较 2024Q4 提升约 2 个百 分点，同业类资产增速略有放缓。从单季度新增生息资产规模（日 均余额口径）来看，今年 Q1 新增生息资产 1766 亿元，同比多增 84 亿元，其中新增信贷同比多增 62 亿元，而新增金融投资同比 多增 595 亿元。资产配置结构显示，当前有效信贷需求不足是资 产投放的核心矛盾。 进一步观察信贷结构，我们以招 ...

英派斯(002899) 报告日期：2025 年 05 月 05 日 24 年利润高增，看好未来内需市场及健身器材智能化转型 ——英派斯点评报告 投资要点 公司发布 2024 年年报和 2025 年一季报 公司 2024 年营收 12.1 亿元，同增 35.6%，归母净利润 1.09 亿元，同增 23.8%； 25Q1 营收 2.91 亿元，同增 21.9%，归母净利润 0.14 亿元，同增 2.19%。24 年全 年及 25Q1 营收均保持较高同比增速。 传统业务稳健增长 公司 2024 年营收 12.1 亿元，同增 35.6%。按产品用途来说，商业产品占比 87.7%；按地区来看，海外销售占比 78.7%，公司目前仍然是以商用器材为主导 的外销导向，而主要的增长动能来自于订单的增长，特别是 OEM/ODM 出口增 长迅速。在 OEM/ODM 产品业务领域，公司积极调整产品结构和市场战略，采 用以销定产的定制化生产模式，差异化进行研发、生产，实现与新客户的稳健合 作，实现 10 余款产品的量产出货以及完成部分产品打样、试产工作。 公司积极面对国际市场变化，同时拓展内需市场 公司在年报中指出了国际市场的变化较大 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 48.11 CNY, compared to the current price of 40.95 CNY [4][12]. Core Insights - The company is positioned as a leader in the domestic market for drug molecular building blocks, emphasizing a multi-dimensional approach to high-quality development, with an inflection point in performance now evident [2][10]. - The report highlights the company's continuous expansion of product varieties and quantities, with a current inventory of 130,000 types of ready-to-use products, capable of providing over 500,000 unique and functional drug molecular building blocks [10][11]. - The company has been increasing its R&D investment, with some products reaching international advanced levels while maintaining a price advantage, being priced at 1/5 to 1/10 of international leaders like Sigma-Aldrich [10][11]. - The overseas revenue for the company is projected to reach 616 million CNY in 2024, with a gross margin of 50.40%, significantly higher than domestic margins, and a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 43.52% from 2018 to 2024 [10][12]. Financial Summary - The company's total revenue is forecasted to grow from 1,102 million CNY in 2024 to 1,909 million CNY in 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 0.9%, 21.4%, 20.0%, and 19.0% respectively [3][12]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from 117 million CNY in 2024 to 214 million CNY in 2027, with growth rates of 7.2%, 24.1%, 22.9%, and 19.6% respectively [3][12]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to rise from 1.29 CNY in 2024 to 2.36 CNY in 2027, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios decreasing from 32 to 17 [3][12]. Industry Context - The report notes a recovery in domestic market demand and an urgent need for domestic alternatives, driven by rising research funding and a shift towards local sourcing due to increased import costs [10][56]. - The overseas market is also showing signs of recovery, with an increase in demand from biopharmaceutical investments, creating significant growth opportunities for domestic companies [10][56].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's Q1 2025 performance showed slight pressure with a revenue of 14.3 billion yuan, down 0.1% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.137 billion yuan, down 10.6% year-on-year. The forecast for net profit from 2025 to 2027 is maintained at 5.24 billion, 5.51 billion, and 5.82 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.51, 1.59, and 1.68 yuan, indicating a stable investment opportunity [1][4] Summary by Sections Q1 Performance - In Q1 2025, the meat product segment generated revenue of 5.58 billion yuan, a decrease of 17.8% year-on-year, with sales volume and price at approximately 310,000 tons and 17.9 yuan/kg, down 17.4% and 0.5% respectively. This decline is attributed to insufficient consumer demand and inventory reduction in the market [2] - The profit per ton for meat products was approximately 4,729 yuan, down 5.3% year-on-year but still at a high level, with operating profit of 1.48 billion yuan, down 21.7%, and an operating profit margin of 26.5% [2] Slaughtering and Breeding Business - The slaughtering business achieved revenue of 7.0 billion yuan in Q1 2025, an increase of 6.1% year-on-year, with operating profit of 120 million yuan, up 24.7%, and an operating profit margin of 1.7%. Fresh product sales volume was about 450,000 tons, up 12.6% year-on-year [3] - The breeding business saw a revenue increase of 30.7% year-on-year, with a reduction in losses to 140 million yuan. The company plans to enhance management and cost control, expecting further improvement in operational performance throughout the year [3] Financial Summary and Valuation Metrics - The company’s projected revenues for 2025 to 2027 are 61.04 billion, 63.55 billion, and 65.83 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year growth of 2.2%, 4.1%, and 3.6% [4] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 5.24 billion, 5.51 billion, and 5.82 billion yuan for the same period, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 5.0%, 5.1%, and 5.6% [4] - The company maintains a stable gross margin around 17.7% to 17.9% and a net margin of approximately 8.6% to 8.8% over the forecast period [9]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights that the price of phosphate rock remains stable at a high level, while the volume of phosphate fertilizer and urea has increased but prices have declined. The company's debt-to-asset ratio continues to improve [1][8] - The company's Q1 2025 performance met expectations, with total revenue of 13,004 million yuan (YoY -6%, QoQ -12%) and net profit attributable to shareholders of 1,289 million yuan (YoY -12%, QoQ +42%) [8] - The report emphasizes the integrated advantages of the phosphate chemical enterprise and the ongoing optimization of its debt structure, alongside a strategic shift towards fine phosphate chemical business and efficient development of phosphate resources [8] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue forecast for 2025 is 61,336 million yuan, with a projected net profit of 5,518 million yuan, corresponding to an EPS of 3.01 yuan [7] - The company's gross margin is expected to improve slightly to 18.2% in 2025, with a return on equity (ROE) of 21.5% [7] - The debt-to-asset ratio is reported at 49.96%, down 2.30 percentage points from the end of 2024, indicating ongoing financial stability [8]

传媒/游戏Ⅱ 姚记科技（002605.SZ） 业绩具备韧性，关注休闲游戏新品类及卡牌业务 2025 年 05 月 05 日 投资评级：买入（维持） | 日期 | 2025/4/30 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价(元) | 27.07 | | 一年最高最低(元) | 37.66/16.50 | | 总市值(亿元) | 112.28 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 90.26 | | 总股本(亿股) | 4.15 | | 流通股本(亿股) | 3.33 | | 近 3 个月换手率(%) | 201.48 | 股价走势图 -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 2024-05 2024-09 2025-01 姚记科技 沪深300 数据来源：聚源 相关研究报告 《Q3 扣非归母净利润增速提升，关注 游戏和卡牌业务 —公司信息更新报 告》-2024.11.1 《三大业务技术优势持续深化，看好 主业回暖 —公司信息更新报告》 -2024.8.21 方光照（分析师） 田鹏（分析师） fangguangzhao@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790520030004 tianpeng@kysec.c ...

伊利股份（600887.SH） 减值落地轻装上阵，盈利能力稳步提升 2025 年 05 月 05 日 投资评级：买入（维持） 食品饮料/饮料乳品 | 日期 | 2025/4/30 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价(元) | 29.76 | | 一年最高最低(元) | 31.96/21.13 | | 总市值(亿元) | 1,894.49 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 1,885.14 | | 总股本(亿股) | 63.66 | | 流通股本(亿股) | 63.34 | | 近 3 个月换手率(%) | 48.02 | 股价走势图 数据来源：聚源 -36% -24% -12% 0% 12% 24% 2024-05 2024-09 2025-01 伊利股份 沪深300 相关研究报告 《2024Q3 利润超预期，盈利能力有望 稳 步 提 升 — 公 司 信 息 更 新 报 告 》 -2024.11.3 《短期调整下业绩承压，期待下半年 环 比 改 善 — 公 司 信 息 更 新 报 告 》 -2024.8.31 张宇光（分析师） 张思敏（联系人） zhangyuguang@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0 ...