证券研究报告 嘉里物流 (636 HK) 港股通 货代盈利高增，综合物流承压 | 华泰研究 | | | 年报点评 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 年 | 3 月 | 30 日│中国香港 | 仓储物流 | 嘉里物流公布 24 年报业绩：收入 582.7 亿港币，同比增长 22.9%；归母净 利润 15.4 亿港币，同比增长 94.8%，基本符合我们的预期；扣除一次性资 产处置收益影响，核心净利 13.6 亿港币，同比增长 11.7%。其中，公司国 际货代分部利润 19.5 亿港币，同比增长 39%，主要受益于国际海空运价上 涨；综合物流分部利润 12.5 亿港币，同比下滑 3%，主因需求偏弱影响。 展望 25 年，我们预计国际海运价格在 24 年高基数上将显著回落；综合物 流业务伴随整体宏观需求回暖，同比有望改善。中长期看，公司深耕亚洲市 场，其综合物流业务将持续受益产业重塑带动的物流需求提升，维持"买入"。 国际货代：24 年盈利高增，25 年同比或回落 24 年公司国际货代业务收入 438.3 亿港币，同比增长 35%；分部利润 19.5 亿港币，同比增长 39%。分市 ...

| 会计年度 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万元) | 2159 | 1987 | 2278 | 2627 | 3100 | | 同比增长 | -9% | -8% | 15% | 15% | 18% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 191 | 190 | 275 | 340 | 427 | | 同比增长 | -28% | -0% | 45% | 23% | 26% | | 经调整净利润(百万元) | 209 | 315 | 350 | 397 | 477 | | 同比增长 | 256% | 51% | 11% | 13% | 20% | | 每股收益(元) | 0.01 | 0.15 | 0.17 | 0.19 | 0.23 | | PE | 16.9 | 11.2 | 10.1 | 8.9 | 7.4 | | PB | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 资料来源：公司数据、招商证券 强烈推荐（维持） 证券研究报告 | 公司点评报告 2025 ...

证券研究报告·海外公司点评·纺织及服饰(HS) 申洲国际（02313.HK） 2024 年业绩点评：业绩超预期恢复，预计 25 年稳健增长 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 24970 | 28663 | 31780 | 35053 | 38465 | | 同比(%) | (10.12) | 14.79 | 10.87 | 10.30 | 9.73 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 4557 | 6241 | 6624 | 7384 | 8157 | | 同比(%) | (0.12) | 36.94 | 6.15 | 11.47 | 10.46 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 3.03 | 4.15 | 4.41 | 4.91 | 5.43 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 18.21 | 13.30 | 12.53 | 11.24 | 10.17 | [Table_Tag] [Tabl ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Insights - The company has shown steady improvement in gross margin and has fully integrated intelligent driving technology into its vehicles [1] - Revenue and profit forecasts have been adjusted, with EPS estimates for 2025-2027 set at 1.27, 1.50, and 1.84 RMB respectively, maintaining a target price of 20.65 HKD [2] - The company aims for a sales target of 2.71 million vehicles in 2025, representing a 24.5% year-on-year growth [9] Financial Performance Summary - For 2023, the company reported revenue of 179,204 million RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 21.1% [4] - The gross margin for 2024 is projected to be 15.9%, an increase of 0.6 percentage points from the previous year [9] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2024 is expected to reach 16,632 million RMB, reflecting a significant year-on-year growth of 213.3% [4][9] - The company plans to distribute a final dividend of 3.3 HKD per 10 shares to all shareholders [9] Sales and Market Position - Total vehicle sales reached 2.1767 million units in 2024, marking a 32.0% increase year-on-year, with new energy vehicle sales growing by 91.9% [9] - The company has set ambitious sales targets for its brands, with specific goals for 吉利 (Geely), 极氪 (Zeekr), and 领克 (Lynk & Co) [9] Future Outlook - The company is set to launch a new cycle of electric vehicles in 2025, with multiple new models planned under its upgraded Galaxy brand [9] - The integration of advanced intelligent driving systems across all new models is expected to enhance the company's competitive edge in the market [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company is expected to see steady improvement in gross margin and has fully integrated intelligent driving technology into its vehicles [1] - The revenue and profit forecasts have been adjusted, with EPS estimates for 2025-2027 set at 1.27, 1.50, and 1.84 RMB respectively, maintaining a target price of 19.05 RMB or 20.65 HKD [2] Financial Performance Summary - For 2023, the company reported revenue of 179,204 million RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 21.1% - The operating profit for 2023 was 3,806 million RMB, reflecting a growth of 4.3% - The net profit attributable to the parent company was 5,308 million RMB, with a slight increase of 0.9% - The gross margin for 2023 was 15.3%, with a net margin of 3.0% and a return on equity (ROE) of 6.6% [4][10][11] Sales and Growth Projections - The company aims for a total sales target of 271,000 vehicles in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 24.5% - The sales targets for the brands are set at 200,000 for Geely, 32,000 for Zeekr, and 39,000 for Lynk & Co, with respective growth rates of 19.8%, 44.1%, and 36.6% [9][10] Brand and Product Development - The company plans to launch five new energy models under the Galaxy brand in 2025, alongside several updated models, all equipped with advanced intelligent driving systems [9][10] - The sales of new energy vehicles reached 88.82 million units in 2024, marking a 91.9% increase, with new energy vehicles accounting for 40.8% of total sales [9] Market Position and Valuation - The company is positioned within the automotive and components industry in China, with a market capitalization of 168,281 million HKD [5] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 27.5 in 2023 to 7.9 by 2027, indicating an attractive valuation [4][11]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company for the first time [1]. Core Views - The company is expected to improve its profitability despite the impact of goodwill impairment on profits [1]. - The revenue and operating profit for 2024 are projected to be CNY 886.75 billion and CNY 72.57 billion, respectively, reflecting a year-on-year change of -10.1% and +17.6% [5]. - The adjusted net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be CNY 44.35 billion, showing a year-on-year decrease of 7.8% [5]. - The company continues to optimize its product structure, leading to an effective increase in gross margin, with gross margin and operating profit margin for 2024 at 39.6% and 8.2%, respectively, up by 2.4 and 1.9 percentage points year-on-year [5]. Summary by Sections Product Performance - The company has seen stable development in ambient liquid milk, while low-temperature yogurt has performed well [6]. - Revenue from liquid milk and ice cream for 2024 is expected to be CNY 730.66 billion and CNY 51.75 billion, respectively, with year-on-year changes of -11.0% and -14.1% [6]. - The company is expanding its lactose-free product line and enhancing its brand presence in the baking and tea beverage sectors [6]. Business Segments - The milk powder business is recovering, with revenue expected to be CNY 33.20 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 12.7% [7]. - The cheese business has been successfully integrated, leading to significant improvements in profitability [7]. - The company is actively expanding its overseas business, maintaining a leading position in markets such as Indonesia and the Philippines [9]. Financial Forecast - The company anticipates revenue growth from 2025 to 2027, with projected revenues of CNY 900.16 billion, CNY 921.34 billion, and CNY 943.07 billion, respectively [10]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are expected to increase from CNY 1.32 in 2025 to CNY 1.63 in 2027, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 14, 13, and 11 times [10]. - The report highlights that there is room for product structure optimization across different categories, and a decrease in management expense ratio is expected to offset some of the increase in sales expense ratio [10].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is not explicitly stated in the provided documents, but the report indicates a positive outlook on revenue growth and operational capabilities, suggesting a favorable investment perspective [1]. Core Viewpoints - The company achieved a revenue of 10.71 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 23.3%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 504 million yuan, down 4.1% year-on-year, indicating strong revenue growth but some pressure on profit margins due to factors like shipping costs and pricing strategies [1][2]. - The cross-border sales and logistics solutions business showed significant growth, with revenues of 8.27 billion yuan and 2.44 billion yuan respectively, marking increases of 17.6% and 47.7% year-on-year, driven by an expansion of warehouse space [2]. - The company's gross margin for 2024 was 30.8%, a decrease of 3.7 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to rising logistics costs, while the gross margin for the sales business was 36.2%, down 2.7 percentage points [3]. - The company has strengthened its market share in various product categories on Amazon's US platform, benefiting from excellent supply chain management and product development capabilities [4]. - Future revenue growth is expected to continue, with the main product categories projected to maintain stable growth, particularly in furniture and home appliances, while the electric tools segment is anticipated to grow at a rate of 40%-50% under a branding strategy [5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 10.71 billion yuan, with a projected revenue growth of 20% in 2025, reaching approximately 12.90 billion yuan [8]. - The net profit for 2024 was 504 million yuan, with forecasts of 581 million yuan for 2025, indicating a recovery with a 15% increase [8]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be 1.40 yuan in 2025, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 7.25 [8]. Operational Efficiency - The company has improved its inventory turnover days, showcasing enhanced operational efficiency, and achieved a net cash flow from operating activities of 535 million yuan in 2024 [3][10]. - The logistics solutions business has been effectively integrated with product sales, enhancing overall operational capabilities [4]. Market Position - The company has seen a continuous increase in market share across multiple product categories, with a strong presence in the US market [4]. - The expansion of warehouse space to 780,000 square meters has bolstered the company's competitive position in cross-border logistics [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company is gradually recovering from past challenges, with expectations for a rebound in bottled water market share in 2025 [8] - The company achieved a revenue of 42.896 billion CNY in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 0.5%, and a net profit of 12.123 billion CNY, also up 0.4% year-on-year [4] - The report anticipates a double-digit revenue growth in 2025, driven by improvements in bottled water market share and continued strength in ready-to-drink tea [9] Revenue Performance - In 2024, the revenue from bottled water was 15.952 billion CNY, down 21.3% year-on-year, while ready-to-drink tea revenue was 16.745 billion CNY, up 32.3% year-on-year [4][5] - The company’s other income and gains reached 2.129 billion CNY in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 15.6% [7] Profitability Metrics - The gross margin for 2024 was 58.1%, a decrease of 1.4 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to promotional activities for bottled water [6] - The net profit margin remained stable at 28.3% for 2024 [7] Future Outlook - The company plans to enhance its product offerings and marketing strategies to strengthen its market position in the ready-to-drink tea segment [8] - The projected net profit for 2025 is 14.130 billion CNY, reflecting a growth rate of 16.6% [10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 114.55 HKD [5][10]. Core Insights - The company is expected to see significant growth in earnings per share (EPS), with projections of 2.47, 3.09, and 3.52 CNY for the years 2024 to 2026, respectively, reflecting an upward adjustment from previous estimates [2][10]. - The company is solidifying its leading position in mobile and automotive optical technology, with a focus on product development and market expansion [1]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from 31,832 million CNY in 2023 to 47,033 million CNY in 2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 10% [4]. - Operating profit is expected to rebound significantly, from 750 million CNY in 2023 to 3,797 million CNY in 2026, indicating a strong recovery [4]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to increase from 1,099 million CNY in 2023 to 3,856 million CNY in 2026, with a notable growth rate of 146% in 2024 [4][9]. - The gross margin is anticipated to improve from 14.5% in 2023 to 19.0% in 2026, reflecting enhanced operational efficiency [4]. Business Segment Performance - The optical components business is expected to grow by approximately 23% in revenue, driven by a 13% increase in automotive lens shipments and the successful launch of new high-performance products [9]. - The mobile lens segment is projected to maintain its global market leadership, with a 13% increase in shipments, supported by advancements in product technology [9]. - The optoelectronic products segment is forecasted to grow by about 21%, with significant improvements in product structure and market share [9].

事件 3 月 28 日，公司公告 24 年业绩，24 年收入 87.9 亿元/+14.5%， 归母净利 14.8 亿元/+36.9%，经调整净利 15.4 亿元/+5.7%，符合 预期。 点评 24 全年门店增速 10%，空白可拓市场广阔。截至 24 年末，公司门 店总数 9914 家/+10.1%，分城市线看，一线+4%/新一线+3%/二线 +6%/三线+14%/四线及以下+18%，下沉市场开店更快。24 全年新开 1587 家、关闭 674 家、净增 913 家，公司在全国仍有 17 个省份未 建立布局，未来空白可拓市场广阔。 行业价格战之下单店表现有韧性，Q4 单店 GMV 增速小幅改善。24 年公司总 GMV 224 亿元/+16.6%，量价拆分，出杯量 13.3 亿杯 /+12.1%，杯单价 16.9 元/+3.9%。单店平均 GMV 236 万元/-4.3% （出杯量-8.0%、杯单价+3.9%），其中 Q1~3 同比-4.4%、Q4 同比-4%， Q4 降幅收窄，推测主要受益于行业价格战趋缓、杯单价提升。 24 年竞争加剧情况下盈利能力韧性优于同业，期待后续改善。主 要成本费用看 ，24 年毛利 ...