我们不是资讯的搬运工 而是有态度的发现者 万和财富早班车 2026年3月5日 ● 国内金融市场 · | · 股指期货 · | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 收盘 | 涨跌幅 | | 上证当月连续 | 2972. 2 - | -1.33% | | 沪深当月连续 | 4591 | -1.16% | 宏观消息汇总 1.全球移动通信系统协会智库最新发布的报告预测，到2030年, 全球移动技术和服务产业的经济贡献将达到11.3万亿美元，占 全球GDP的约8.4%。 2郑商所发布公告,根据《郑州商品交易所期货交易管理办法》 第二十七条规定,经研究决定,自2026年3月3日当晚夜盘交易 时起，甲醇期货2604及2605合约的交易指令每次最小开仓下单 量调整为8手。 二、行业最新动态 1.三菱瓦斯化学调涨CCL产品价格板块估值有望提升,相关个股: 生益科技(600183)、华正新材(603186)等。 2.千问App月活破2亿,关注产业链受益标的,相关个股： 润建 股份(002929)、佳力图(603912)等。 3.六部门力推光伏组件综合利用行业空间巨大，相关个股： 格林 美(002340) ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Focus - The conference call primarily focused on the **artificial intelligence (AI) network sector**, particularly the **co-packaged optics market trends**, and the **global printed circuit board (PCB) / copper clad laminate (CCL) industry** dynamics, including supply-demand patterns and competitive landscape [1][2] Core Insights and Arguments Artificial Intelligence Network Sector - Investors are particularly interested in the **supply-demand dynamics of optical modules** and the trends in **co-packaged optics technology** [1] - The **AI data center market** is viewed positively by most investors, who see it as a long-term growth opportunity for optical communication companies, driven by increased capital expenditures from global cloud service providers and the technological upgrade from **800G to 1.6T** [2] - Some investors express uncertainty about the **development trends of co-packaged optics**, questioning whether this technology will disrupt the business models of optical module companies [2] - Nomura suggests that co-packaged optics may become a competitive solution in horizontal network expansions, while pluggable optical modules will maintain a longer lifecycle due to lower implementation difficulty and a more mature supply chain [2] - Key component companies benefiting from the high entry barriers in the co-packaged optics field include **Corning** and **Lumentum**, particularly in the fiber optics and high-power laser sectors [2] - Japanese companies such as **Fujikura**, **Sumitomo Electric**, and the unlisted **Xuan Guang Advanced Components** are highlighted as having potential opportunities in the global co-packaged optics supply chain [2] Printed Circuit Board / Copper Clad Laminate Industry - Investors are keen to understand the successful development experiences of Chinese AI PCB / CCL companies over the past 2-3 years, while also expressing concerns about the sustainability of current demand growth and potential overcapacity risks [3] - Nomura believes that continuous technological innovation from **graphics processing units (GPUs)** and **application-specific integrated circuits (ASICs)** will support material and product upgrades in 2026 and 2027, potentially accelerating the industry into an upgrade cycle starting in the second half of 2026 [3] - Supply shortages of key raw materials such as **glass fiber**, **copper foil**, and **resins**, as well as equipment like **laser drilling machines**, are expected to persist, allowing leading PCB / CCL companies to maintain their competitive edge through more efficient supply chain management [3] - The competitive landscape in the **high-density interconnect PCB** sector is viewed as more favorable compared to the **high-layer PCB** sector, with the CCL industry exhibiting a higher concentration than the PCB industry [3] - Core recommended stocks include **Shenghong Technology** and **Shengyi Technology**, with Shengyi being a leading CCL supplier in China and Shenghong serving as a high-density interconnect PCB supplier for **NVIDIA** [3] Concerns Regarding Japanese Suppliers - Some investors are worried that Japanese upstream suppliers are adopting a conservative approach to capacity expansion, while their Chinese counterparts are more aggressive, potentially allowing Chinese companies to capture market share and impact the high-profit business of Japanese firms [4] Software Sector Insights - Most investors currently hold a negative view of the software sector, primarily due to concerns that **large language models (LLMs)** and **open AI agents** will disrupt the software industry [5] - Nomura agrees with this sentiment, indicating that valuation pressures in the software sector will persist in the short term due to a weak macro environment and intense competition, with many Chinese software companies facing growth challenges [5] - Despite the negative outlook, Nomura believes that a clear trend of differentiation will emerge within the software industry, where companies that integrate deeply into business processes and leverage LLMs and AI technologies to provide smarter solutions will thrive and not be disrupted [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for companies such as 中芯国际 (SMIC) and 通富微电 (Tongfu Microelectronics) [2][3] Core Insights - The electronic industry is experiencing a comprehensive "inflation" phase, with multiple segments seeing price increases due to supply chain constraints and rising raw material costs [7][34] - AI demand is driving price hikes in PCB upstream materials, with significant increases in costs for electronic cloth and copper foil, leading to a new round of price increases in the CCL (Copper Clad Laminate) sector [10][17] - The MLCC (Multi-Layer Ceramic Capacitor) market is entering a price increase cycle, driven by high demand from AI servers and supply constraints from leading manufacturers [31][32] Summary by Sections 1. AI Demand Driving Price Increases in PCB Upstream Materials - The CCL industry has initiated a new round of price increases, with Japanese manufacturers announcing price hikes of over 30% for copper foil substrates and adhesive films [10] - The demand for high-end products is squeezing traditional production capacities, leading to a tighter supply-demand balance in electronic cloth [19] - The HVLP (High Voltage Low Profile) copper foil market is experiencing an expanding supply gap, enhancing the industry's pricing power [24] 2. AI Industry Driving Demand for MLCC - The MLCC sector is seeing a surge in prices, with a nearly 20% increase in spot prices for Korean MLCCs and leading manufacturers considering price hikes due to sustained high demand [31][32] - The supply-demand balance for high-end MLCCs is tight, with production rates at leading companies reaching 90-95%, indicating a potential for continued price increases [32] 3. Upstream Raw Material Price Increases and Semiconductor Price Trends - The semiconductor industry is expected to continue its price increase trend due to rising raw material costs and tight supply conditions [34] - Power semiconductors are also entering a new price increase phase, with companies like 新洁能 (New Clean Energy) announcing price hikes of at least 10% due to increased manufacturing costs [34] 4. Market Review - The electronic sector saw a weekly increase of 4.02%, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by 2.94 percentage points [37] - Year-to-date, the electronic sector has risen by 14.94%, again outperforming the broader index [37]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for companies such as 中芯国际 (SMIC) and 通富微电 (Tongfu Microelectronics) [2][3] Core Insights - The electronic industry is experiencing a comprehensive "inflation" phase, with multiple segments seeing price increases due to rising costs and supply chain constraints [7][34] - AI demand is driving price hikes in PCB upstream materials, with significant increases in costs for electronic cloth and copper foil, leading to a new round of price increases in the CCL (Copper Clad Laminate) sector [10][17] - The MLCC (Multi-Layer Ceramic Capacitor) market is entering a price increase cycle, driven by high demand from AI servers and supply constraints from leading manufacturers [31][32] Summary by Sections 1. AI Demand Driving Price Increases in PCB Upstream Materials - The CCL industry has initiated a new round of price increases, with Japanese manufacturers announcing price hikes of over 30% for copper foil substrates and adhesive films [10] - The demand for high-end products is squeezing traditional production capacities, leading to tighter supply in electronic cloth [19] - The HVLP (High Voltage Low Profile) copper foil market is experiencing an expanding supply-demand gap, enhancing the industry's pricing power [24] 2. AI Industry Driving Demand Upward, MLCC Enters Price Increase Cycle - The MLCC sector is seeing a surge in prices, with a nearly 20% increase in spot prices and leading manufacturers considering price hikes due to sustained high demand from AI applications [31][32] - The global high-end MLCC market is currently in a state of supply-demand imbalance, with utilization rates of leading manufacturers reaching 90%-95% [32] 3. Upstream Raw Material Price Increases + AI Demand Driving Semiconductor Price Increases - The semiconductor industry is expected to continue its price increase trend due to rising raw material costs and tight supply of 8-inch wafers [34] 4. Market Review - The electronic sector saw a weekly increase of 4.02%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.94 percentage points, with a year-to-date increase of 14.94% [37]

国际复材 20260302 摘要 常规产品线转向高端细纱和超细纱，叠加丰田织机供应受限，共同推动 常规产品价格上涨。近期纱和布价格均上涨，但布端涨幅（约 0.6-0.7 元）高于纱端（约 0.4-0.5 元），公司顺势调整价格。 行业预期 2026 年 3-4 月价格"渐涨"。布端受织机供给瓶颈制约，国 产替代设备进展尚不明确。纱端虽有新增产能投放，但整体纱线产能增 长仍合理，预计纱端平稳，布端取决于织机瓶颈突破。 8.5 万吨新纱线项目年末投产，预计 3 月底达满产。虽 1-2 月成本数据 不具可比性，但前期规划显示新线成本将大幅下降。产品结构上，初期 以基础类产品为主，逐步向超细方向优化。 现有 500 多台织布机订单，预计 2026 年到货 400 多台，7 月开始每月 到货 100 多台。现有织机 1,250 台，含 100 台老机型"金田居"，无 法用于极薄布生产，后续不再新增采购。 二代布主要交付"生益"订单，2025 年底 100 万米订单已基本完成， 月出货量约 40-50 万米。与生益进行价格谈判，倾向于按市场价上调， 新订单价格约 100 元/米（含税）。 Q&A 如何看待未来一段时间普通 ...

宏和科技 20260302 摘要 普通电子布价格持续修复，预计 2026 年全年仍处于上行趋势。2024 年全年均价 3.74 元，2025 年一季度至三季度分别为 4.5 元、4.8 元、 4.97 元，预计全年超过 5 元。2026 年受高性能电子布需求拉动，普通 布供给收缩，价格有望回升至历史高点。 高性能电子布价格坚挺并上调，AI 需求强劲支撑。一代产品价格维持 25 元/米，CT/C1 产品 2026 年已提价约 20%，价格区间为 80~240 元/米。二代产品 2026 年随订单导入，价格存在上行可能。公司不倾向 主动提价，但若终端客户愿支付更高价格以优先交付，则可能接单。 CT/C1 产品结构中，厚布与薄布占比相对较高，超薄极薄布占比逐步提 升。AI 服务器应用主要聚焦 50~100 微米规格，消费电子载板应用则以 35 微米以下规格为主。2026 年涨价后综合均价水平大致在 100 元左右。 公司拥有 1,000 多台织布机，高性能电子布扩量不会挤压普通产品。通 过优化产品结构，减少低毛利品类供应，增加超薄极薄布供给，以匹配 当前订单机会。与丰田存在战略合作，预计设备采购速度相对同行更快。 ...

AI 算力又一瓶颈，芯片封装基板供应短缺 20260302 摘要 IC 载板作为 PCB 高端领域，国产渗透率低，增长空间大，是 PCB 板块 中值得重点关注的细分方向，尤其是在"算力相关 PCB 创新"之外。 2025 年载板行情未充分发酵，因 BT 载板与存储周期相关，涨价早幅度 大；ABF 载板下游分散，涨价滞后。上游材料供给约束是 2025 年载板 涨价的重要驱动，而非单纯的需求拉动。 2026 年 BT 载板将延续涨价趋势，ABF 载板也开始涨价，主要驱动力来 自材料端供给约束叠加需求端结构性增量，ABF 载板逐步成为 GPU 生 产的瓶颈环节。 海外载板厂积极扩产，但上游材料端扩产节奏偏慢，难以匹配下游需求 增长，预计 2026 年行业涨价具有较强必然性，供需偏紧状态预计仍将 延续。 国内 ABF 载板体系化推进始于 2021 年，虽在外资客户体系中仍较难达 到向英伟达供货的要求，但在国内多类应用场景中技术能力已逐步达标， 国产替代正在进行中。 Q&A 在 PCB 产业链中，IC 载板（BT 与 ABF）应如何定位，当前投资关注点是什 么？ IC 载板属于 PCB 环节中技术门槛最高、价值量最高的 ...

Flash | 01 Mar 2026 11:17:15 ET │ 12 pages Shengyi Technology (600183.SS) Preliminary Results Mean 4Q25 a Slight Miss, But Still Promising Growth Outlook for 2026E CITI'S TAKE Shengyi announced the 2025 preliminary results with revenue / net profit surging 39% / 92% yoy to Rmb28.431bn / Rmb3.334bn respectively. This implies the 4Q25 net profit of Rmb886m soaring 142% yoy. However, this was still slightly lower than previous midpoint guidance of Rmb902m. See Fig 1 for the quarterly P&L trend. Despite the mil ...

本文首发于公众号"私募排排网"。 （点击↑↑ 上图查看详情 ） 美银证券（ BofA Securities）在2月2日发布的研报中，对中际旭创维持"买入"评级，同时将其目标价由780元上调至888元。报告指出，中际旭 创2025年四季度业绩预告表现超预期，公司预计2025年全年净利润同比增幅为90%-128%，这意味着四季度盈利中值约37亿元（环比增长17%、 同比增长159%），较美银预期高出约9%。 管理层透露，公司2025年四季度营收环比增长30%，核心得益于产能交付能力提升与产品结构持续优化，且核心组件供应链压力较2025年上半 年已显著缓解。 展望未来，管理层持乐观态度，尤其看好2027年行业规模化扩张与升级进程，认为可插拔光模块仍将是算力"横向扩展（scale-out）"的主流方 案；同时对未来几年算力"纵向升级（scale-up）"中光技术的应用持积极态度，并预计其渗透率将从2027年开始显著提升。 2月28日，中际旭创发布业绩快报，公司2025年实现营业总收入382.4亿元，同比增长60.25%；实现归母净利润107.99亿元，同比增长 108.81%。受益于终端客户对算力基础设施的强劲投入， ...

Stock Recommendations - Kingsoft Office (688111.SH) is positioned to benefit from AI developments despite recent stock price adjustments, with an expected EPS growth from 3.56 in 2024 to 4.57 in 2026[5] - Shengyi Technology (600183.SH) anticipates significant growth driven by server PCB upgrades and new AI customer acquisitions, with EPS projected to rise from 0.74 in 2024 to 2.37 in 2026[5] - Tuojing Technology (688072.SH) maintains a leading position in thin film deposition equipment, with EPS expected to increase from 2.48 in 2024 to 5.96 in 2026[5] Automotive Sector Insights - Bertly (603596.SH) is expected to benefit from the focus on autonomous driving, with an EPS forecast of 2.85 in 2026, reflecting a growth trajectory[6] - Yinlun (002126.SZ) is projected to see EPS growth from 0.96 in 2024 to 1.49 in 2026, supported by economic recovery in construction machinery and heavy trucks[6] Market Performance Overview - The weighted return of the gold stock portfolio in February 2026 was 6.47%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index, which rose by 1.09%[12] - Silver Wheel (002126.SZ) had the highest monthly increase at 32.15%, while Hongyuan Electronics (603267.SH) rose by 22.52%[12] Risk Factors - Potential risks include overseas policy changes and individual company operational risks, which could affect performance and earnings volatility[8]