Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies in the non-ferrous metals sector, including companies like Zijin Mining, China Hongqiao, and Chalco [11]. Core Insights - The report highlights that despite short-term fluctuations in macroeconomic sentiment, the long-term bullish trend for non-ferrous metals remains intact [2]. - In January, the People's Bank of China increased its gold purchases, injecting confidence into the precious metals market, while the U.S. ADP employment figures fell short of expectations, indicating a cooling job market [2][41]. - The report emphasizes the strategic importance of copper reserves, with plans to expand national copper strategic reserves and explore commercial reserve mechanisms [3]. - The aluminum market is experiencing short-term price fluctuations due to geopolitical tensions and macroeconomic policies, with supply and demand dynamics affected by seasonal factors [4]. - Nickel prices are under pressure due to declining macroeconomic sentiment, with a notable drop in prices observed [5]. - The lithium market is seeing a decline in prices and ongoing inventory reduction, with supply chain dynamics influenced by seasonal production adjustments [9]. - Cobalt prices are also weak, with reduced trading activity as companies prepare for the upcoming holiday season [10]. Summary by Sections Precious Metals - In January, China's central bank increased gold purchases from 0.93 tons to 1.24 tons, providing support to the precious metals market [2][41]. - The largest silver ETF recorded a single-day increase of 1,000 tons, marking the third-largest daily increase in history, indicating long-term investor confidence [2]. Industrial Metals - Copper prices are being closely monitored due to increased global inventories and strategic reserve discussions in China [3]. - Aluminum production is stable, but demand is declining as downstream processing enterprises begin their holiday breaks, leading to increased social inventory [4]. - Nickel prices fell by 5.8% to 132,000 yuan/ton, driven by a cooling macroeconomic sentiment [5]. Energy Metals - Lithium carbonate prices dropped by 13.2% to 138,000 yuan/ton, with ongoing inventory reduction and production adjustments ahead of the holiday season [9]. - Cobalt prices decreased by 6.3% to 410,000 yuan/ton, with demand slowing as companies finish pre-holiday stockpiling [10]. Key Companies to Watch - Companies recommended for attention include Zijin Mining, Shandong Gold, and China Hongqiao in the precious metals sector, and Chalco and Western Mining in the aluminum sector [2][4][11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies in the non-ferrous metals sector, including companies like Zijin Mining, China Hongqiao, and Chalco [11]. Core Views - The report highlights that despite short-term fluctuations in macro sentiment, the long-term bullish trend for non-ferrous metals remains intact. The Chinese central bank's increased gold purchases in January have provided a strong boost to precious metals [2][41]. - The report emphasizes the strategic importance of copper reserves, suggesting that the Chinese government is looking to expand its copper strategic reserve system [3]. - The aluminum market is experiencing short-term price fluctuations due to geopolitical tensions and macroeconomic policies, with a stable production capacity but increasing social inventory [4]. - Nickel prices are under pressure due to a cooling macro sentiment, with significant price drops observed in recent weeks [5]. - The report notes that tin prices are expected to remain volatile, influenced by macroeconomic sentiment and supply-demand dynamics [8]. - Lithium prices have seen a decline, with ongoing inventory reduction, while cobalt prices are also under pressure as trading activity weakens ahead of the holiday season [9][10]. Summary by Sections Precious Metals - In January, the People's Bank of China increased its gold purchases from 0.93 tons to 1.24 tons, injecting confidence into the precious metals market. The largest silver ETF also saw a significant increase in holdings, indicating long-term investor confidence [2][41]. Industrial Metals - **Copper**: The report stresses the importance of copper strategic reserves, with a recent increase in global copper inventories. The Chinese government is exploring commercial reserve mechanisms [3]. - **Aluminum**: The aluminum market is facing short-term price volatility due to geopolitical issues and macroeconomic policies, with production capacity remaining stable but social inventories increasing [4]. - **Nickel**: Nickel prices have dropped significantly, with SHFE nickel falling 5.8% to 132,000 CNY/ton due to cooling macro sentiment [5]. - **Tin**: The tin market is experiencing a supply-demand imbalance, with prices expected to remain volatile [8]. Energy Metals - **Lithium**: The report indicates a decline in lithium prices, with carbonate prices dropping 13.2% to 138,000 CNY/ton. Inventory levels are also decreasing [9]. - **Cobalt**: Cobalt prices are under pressure, with a 6.3% drop in domestic electrolytic cobalt prices to 410,000 CNY/ton as trading activity slows [10].

行业规模 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数（只） | 235 | 4.5 | | 总市值（十亿元） | 7908.7 | 7.1 | | 流通市值（十亿元） | 6895.0 | 6.8 | 证券研究报告 | 行业定期报告 2026 年 02 月 08 日 钽铟钨铼加速上涨 等降波加仓 金属行业周报 周期/金属及材料 美国启动关键矿产战略储备的计划，召开关键矿产部长级会议，和非洲主要矿 业国关键矿产合作，和大型矿企、矿贸加强合作，美资源保护的意图愈发明显。 有色资源大叙事没有变化，维持长期看好有色资源股配置，逢调整加仓。近日 龙头股已经累计下跌 20%左右，向下空间不大，难得加仓位置。等待降波夯实 底部。此外，关注补涨标的和加速上涨的小金属，重点关注钽铟钨铼等。中长 期重点关注金银铜铝稀土钨铀钽锂钴镁镍等品种。此外，关注科技成长相关新 材料标的。 SMM 统计 2 月 5 日国内主流消费地电解铝锭库存 83.6 万吨，环比提高 5.4 万吨，下游逐步进入传统淡季。本周一沪铝受贵金属影响以跌停收盘，随后 在 2.3-2.4 万元/吨区间内震荡。春节前后需关注铝锭累库幅 ...

Group 1 - Zhang Yiming, founder of ByteDance, tops the Forbes 2026 China Rich List with a net worth of $69.3 billion, surpassing Zhong Shanshan for the first time [2][5] - The list reflects a significant reshuffling, with many traditional industries being disrupted by the rise of internet and hard technology sectors [2][5] - The top ten includes major figures from technology, new energy, and manufacturing, indicating a shift in wealth towards hard tech [6] Group 2 - Lei Jun of Xiaomi makes a notable comeback, ranking tenth with a net worth of $30.4 billion, surpassing Jack Ma, who is now ranked eleventh with $29.6 billion [2][5] - ByteDance's investments in AI, including a $160 billion budget for AI development, are key to Zhang Yiming's wealth increase [5] - The real estate tycoons have seen a decline, with internet billionaires now making up less than 40% of the list, highlighting a trend towards AI, new energy, and high-end manufacturing [6]

Core Viewpoint - The Hang Seng Index (HSI) experienced a closing price of 26,985.57, reflecting an increase of 425.62 points or 1.60% [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index (HSI) closed at 26,985.57, up by 425.62 points or 1.60% [1]. - The index reached a high of 26,989.63 and a low of 26,628.55 during the trading session [1]. - The trading volume was 47.8275 million shares, with an average price of 26,809.09 [1]. Group 2: Major Blue-Chip Stocks - Major blue-chip stocks mostly declined, with HSBC Holdings closing at 134.800 HKD, down 2.67% from the previous close [2]. - Tencent Holdings closed at 547.500 HKD, reflecting a decrease of 1.97% [2]. - Other notable declines included AIA Group, which fell by 5.54%, and Meituan, which decreased by 2.56% [3]. Group 3: Stock Price Movements - Tencent Holdings (00700) reported a price of 547.500 HKD, down by 11.000 HKD or 1.97% [3]. - HSBC Holdings (00005) closed at 134.800 HKD, down by 3.700 HKD or 2.67% [3]. - AIA Group (01299) saw a significant drop of 4.900 HKD, translating to a 5.54% decrease [3].

Core Viewpoint - CMB International maintains a positive outlook on China Hongqiao, expecting a continued supply shortage in the global aluminum market from 2026 to 2027, leading to upward revisions in aluminum price forecasts by 12% and 7% respectively for those years [1] Group 1: Earnings Forecasts - The company has raised its earnings forecasts for China Hongqiao by 27% and 12% for the current and next year respectively [1] - The target price for China Hongqiao has been increased from HKD 39 to HKD 45, maintaining a "Buy" rating [1] Group 2: Profit Projections - The company anticipates that China Hongqiao's core net profit will reach CNY 26.2 billion in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 7% [1] - Net profit growth is expected to accelerate to 34% in 2026, driven by higher aluminum prices [1] Group 3: Profit Sensitivity - The company estimates that a 1% increase in aluminum prices will boost earnings by approximately 2.3% in 2026 [1] - A 1% decrease in coal prices is projected to enhance earnings by about 0.3% [1]

Group 1 - Everbright Securities maintains a "Buy" rating for Baidu Group-SW, citing short-term pressure on advertising but stabilization trends, with AI cloud growth logic remaining intact [1] - China Hongqiao's target price raised to HKD 45 by CMB International, driven by a persistent global aluminum supply-demand gap until 2026-27, leading to a 27% and 12% upward revision in profit forecasts [1] - CMB International initiates a "Buy" rating for Innovation Industry with a target price of HKD 32, highlighting significant cost advantages from renewable energy and a clear growth path through overseas aluminum projects [1] Group 2 - Huatai Securities lowers the target price for Ausnutria to HKD 2.11 while maintaining an "Add" rating, noting ongoing pressure from declining newborn population impacting domestic infant formula sales, but strong overseas performance [2] - Dongfang Securities maintains a "Buy" rating for Geely Automobile with a target price of HKD 23.37, reporting a 121% year-on-year increase in January export sales and a 99.7% growth in the Zeekr brand [3] - Dongfang Securities also maintains a "Buy" rating for Kuaishou-W with a target price of HKD 104.36, highlighting a 112% month-on-month increase in AI overseas revenue and ongoing technological advancements [3] Group 3 - CITIC Construction maintains a "Buy" rating for Laopu Gold, noting a pre-Spring Festival buying spree and strong brand expansion, with Q1 gross margin expected to approach 40% [4] - Kaiyuan Securities initiates a "Buy" rating for Leshu Comfort, emphasizing its leading market share in Africa for baby diapers and sanitary napkins, supported by localized production and distribution channels [5] - GF Securities maintains a "Buy" rating for Meituan-W, indicating a stabilization in food delivery competition and a solid market position, with profitability expected to improve by 2026 [6] - Guoyuan International Securities maintains a "Buy" rating for Q Technology with a target price of HKD 12.89, noting a 27.2% year-on-year increase in camera module prices and a growing revenue share from non-mobile sectors [7]

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index (HSI) closed at 26,513.11, down by 334.21 points or 1.24% [1] - The index reached a high of 26,812.73 and a low of 26,414.23 during the trading session [1] - The trading volume was 70.4034 million shares, with an average price of 26,613.48 [1] Major Blue-Chip Stocks Performance - HSBC Holdings closed at HKD 139.704, up by 0.51% compared to the previous close [2][3] - Tencent Holdings closed at HKD 552.190, down by 1.04% compared to the previous close [2][3] - Alibaba Group (W) closed at HKD 159.500, down by 0.93% [3] - AIA Group closed at HKD 90.700, up by 1.40% [3] - Xiaomi Group (W) closed at HKD 33.960, down by 1.85% [3] - Meituan (W) closed at HKD 92.150, down by 1.13% [3] - China Ping An closed at HKD 72.050, up by 1.05% [3] ADR Performance - Tencent's ADR (TCEHY) was priced at USD 552.190, reflecting a decrease of 1.04% compared to its Hong Kong counterpart [3] - Alibaba's ADR (BABA) was priced at USD 155.411, down by 2.56% compared to its Hong Kong counterpart [3] - HSBC's ADR (HSBC) was priced at USD 139.704, up by 0.51% compared to its Hong Kong counterpart [3]

結合技術數據，紫金礦業的技術面呈現「強勢但有隱憂」的特點，逐個拆解如下： 2月3日，紫金礦業(02899)走勢強勁，收盤價41.36元，單日漲幅4.55%，成交額達48.47億元，量能配合較為充足，成為當日資源板塊領漲個股之一。與其同 屬資源、礦業類別的三隻個股同步跟漲，但力度有所差異：江西銅業(00358)表現最為接近，單日漲幅4.47%，與紫金走勢高度相關；中國宏橋(01378)、中國 鋁業(02600)則分別上漲1.26%、1.55%，屬於跟隨性上漲，動能相對偏弱。 上日（3日）我哋嘅【中銀做客】欄目中，中銀國際的董事朱紅Niki都有點評黃金價格話題：最近黃金價格的升勢確實有所突破，短短一個月，國際黃金價 格上漲了接近30%，這個幅度讓市場也有些驚訝。任何產品的價格都不可能只漲不跌，所以大家看到這樣急促的漲幅，後市的風險其實越來越大。短線來 看，因為漲幅太急，想做短線操作風險會非常高，超短線炒作未必是好時機，畢竟黃金已處歷史高位，波動劇烈，稍有風吹草動就可能高位回落，比如這兩 天白銀價格就跌了差不多40%，大家要小心短線的大幅波動。 股價目前高於MA30（38.97元）、MA60（35.70元），長期趨 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong Dividend ETF (工银, 159691) experienced significant net redemptions, indicating a trend of outflow from this fund, which may reflect investor sentiment and market conditions [1][2]. Fund Performance - As of February 3, the latest scale of the Hong Kong Dividend ETF is 85.4 billion yuan, with a net outflow of 28.23 million yuan on that day, representing 0.33% of the previous day's scale [1]. - Over the past five days, the fund faced net redemptions totaling 68.26 million yuan, ranking 15th out of 212 in cross-border ETF net outflows [1]. - In the last ten days, the total net redemptions reached 202 million yuan, ranking 7th out of 212 [1]. - Over the past 20 days, the fund saw net redemptions of 332 million yuan, ranking 8th out of 212 [1]. Fund Size and Liquidity - The current share count of the Hong Kong Dividend ETF is 6.282 billion shares, with a scale of 85.4 billion yuan, showing a 3.80% decrease in shares and a 1.24% increase in scale since December 31, 2025 [2]. - The cumulative trading amount over the last 20 trading days is 6.501 billion yuan, with an average daily trading amount of 325 million yuan [2]. - Year-to-date, the cumulative trading amount is 7.151 billion yuan, with an average daily trading amount of 325 million yuan [2]. Fund Management - The current fund managers are Liu Weilin and He Shun, with Liu managing since March 30, 2023, achieving a return of 36.96%, while He is set to manage from May 30, 2024, with a return of 14.67% [2]. Top Holdings - The fund's top holdings include: - China National Offshore Oil Corporation (14.55% holding) - China Shenhua Energy (9.65% holding) - China Pacific Insurance (8.90% holding) - China Hongqiao Group (7.68% holding) - CLP Holdings (7.53% holding) - WH Group (7.36% holding) - Power Assets Holdings (6.21% holding) - Haier Smart Home (3.50% holding) - People's Insurance Company of China (3.42% holding) - CSPC Pharmaceutical Group (3.41% holding) [2].