Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview 1. Baijiu Industry - The baijiu industry is experiencing cautious expectations for sales during the Spring Festival, with a decrease in the willingness of distributors to collect payments. However, Moutai shows strong demand resilience, with its price rebounding. The misalignment of the Spring Festival holiday is expected to benefit Q1 2026, and policies to stimulate domestic demand may be implemented, leading to increased dividend yields for leading companies and maintaining strong profitability [1][3][5]. 2. Paper Industry - The profitability in the paper industry is shifting towards upstream sectors due to high pulp prices and weak downstream consumption, resulting in narrowed profits for midstream operations. It is anticipated that wood chip and pulp prices will continue to rise in Q1, driving up paper prices. Companies with their own pulp production capacity are expected to see sustained profitability [1][7][8]. 3. Forestry Carbon Sink - China is actively promoting forestry carbon sinks as part of its national climate strategy. Companies capable of developing forestry carbon sinks and possessing forestry resources are worth attention, as the cost-effectiveness of forestry carbon sinks is the highest [1][9]. 4. New Consumption Sector - Leading companies in the new consumption sector, such as Laopu Gold, are currently undervalued with strong performance expectations. The rise in gold prices and discount promotions are driving sales growth. Laopu Gold significantly raised prices in the second half of last year, and substantial growth is expected this year [1][10][11]. 5. Home Appliance Industry - The home appliance industry is showing signs of bottoming out, with expectations for a reversal post-Spring Festival. The implementation of trade-in subsidies is expected to improve retail performance. TCL Electronics is integrating Sony's TV business, opening up profitability potential, and is currently undervalued [1][17][19]. Company-Specific Insights 1. Moutai and Other Baijiu Brands - Moutai is recommended as a key investment due to its undeniable competitiveness. Other notable brands include Luzhou Laojiao, Gujing Gongjiu, and Shanxi Fenjiu, which have significant advantages in competitiveness and operational capabilities, with opportunities to increase market share [1][6]. 2. Paper Companies - Recommended paper companies include Nine Dragons Paper, Sun Paper, and Yueyang Forest Paper, which are expected to see continuous profit improvements due to their upstream integration [1][7][8]. 3. New Consumption Leaders - Key investment opportunities in the new consumption sector include Laopu Gold, which is expected to achieve a performance of 7 to 8 billion yuan in 2026, corresponding to a P/E ratio of about 16 times, reflecting a 50% growth compared to 2025 [1][11][12]. 4. Gold and Jewelry Sector - The gold and jewelry sector is entering a bull market, with companies like Taibai Gang showing significant profit growth and low P/E ratios, indicating substantial potential. The sector is expected to benefit from promotional activities during Valentine's Day and the Spring Festival [1][13]. 5. Livestock and Meat Industry - The livestock sector, particularly beef and pork, is facing supply pressures, with pig prices in a downward cycle. However, the beef market is expected to see price support due to tight supply conditions [1][20][21][23][22]. 6. Pharmaceutical Manufacturing - The CRO, raw materials, and intermediates sectors in pharmaceutical manufacturing are poised for growth in 2026, driven by changes in supply and demand dynamics. Companies like WuXi AppTec and Junshi Biosciences are highlighted as key players in this space [1][24][25]. Additional Insights - The overall sentiment in the market indicates a cautious but optimistic outlook for various sectors, with specific companies showing strong potential for growth and profitability amidst changing market conditions [1][2][4][10][18].

Group 1 - The appreciation of the RMB is beneficial for the company's procurement cost optimization, particularly for imported raw materials and equipment, primarily settled in USD [1] - Since November 2025, the RMB has accelerated its appreciation, with the USD to RMB exchange rate at approximately 6.95 as of January 28, 2026, which may lower foreign trade procurement costs and enhance profitability [1] - The company has established a "forest-pulp-paper integration" industry system, enhancing its core competitiveness through strategic positioning and resource diversification across three major industrial bases in Shandong, Guangxi, and Laos [1] Group 2 - The company is one of the few listed firms in China achieving "forest-pulp-paper integration" and full category coverage, continuously gaining sustainable cost advantages through structured cost reduction [2] - Recent significant increases in gold prices and expectations of rising prices for certain commodities contrast with the relatively low pulp prices since 2025, indicating potential upward trends in pulp and white paper prices as macroeconomic stability and consumption policies take effect [2] - The anticipated rise in pulp prices is expected to improve corporate profitability, increase operating rates, and optimize gross margins [3] Group 3 - The company is adjusting its profit forecasts while maintaining a "buy" rating, expecting net profits for 2025-2027 to be 3.37 billion, 3.83 billion, and 4.50 billion RMB respectively [4] - The company continues to optimize its business structure and focuses on differentiated, high-end product development while implementing a "forest-pulp-paper integration" strategy to ensure sustainable development [4]

业绩再超预期，浆纸一体化驱动价值重构 玖龙纸业(2689) [Table_Industry] 林纸产品 | [Table_Invest] 评级： | 增持 | | --- | --- | | [当前价格 Table_CurPrice] (港元)： | 7.46 | [Table_Market] 交易数据 玖龙纸业公司更新报告 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 刘佳昆(分析师) | 021-38038184 | liujiakun@gtht.com | S0880524040004 | | 毛宇翔(分析师) | 021-38038672 | maoyuxiang@gtht.com | S0880524080013 | 本报告导读： 玖龙业绩再超预期，FY26H1 预计盈利 19.5-20.5 亿元，浆纸一体化驱动公司价值重 构 投资要点： | 财务摘要(百万元人民币) | FY2024A | FY2025A | FY2026E | FY2027E | FY2028E | | --- | --- | --- | - ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [5] Core Insights - The company has exceeded performance expectations, with FY26H1 projected earnings between 1.95 billion to 2.05 billion RMB, driven by the integration of pulp and paper operations [2][9] - The integration of pulp and paper production is expected to significantly enhance profitability, with major contributions from new capacities in Hubei and Beihai [9] - The company anticipates further price increases in short-fiber pulp and improvements in profitability for cultural and white card paper, which are currently at historical low levels [9] Financial Summary - Total revenue projections are as follows: - FY2024A: 59.50 billion RMB - FY2025A: 63.24 billion RMB - FY2026E: 69.30 billion RMB - FY2027E: 76.29 billion RMB - FY2028E: 84.02 billion RMB - Revenue growth rates are expected to be 4.9%, 6.3%, 9.6%, 10.1%, and 10.1% respectively [3][10] - Net profit projections are as follows: - FY2024A: 750.68 million RMB - FY2025A: 1.77 billion RMB - FY2026E: 4.00 billion RMB - FY2027E: 4.40 billion RMB - FY2028E: 4.84 billion RMB - Net profit growth rates are expected to be 131.5%, 135.4%, 126.6%, 9.8%, and 10.2% respectively [3][10] - The company’s PE ratio is projected to decrease from 20.31 in FY2024A to 7.23 in FY2028E, indicating increasing valuation attractiveness [3][10] Market Data - The current stock price is 7.46 HKD, with a market capitalization of 35.00 billion HKD and a 52-week price range of 2.82 to 7.46 HKD [6][10]

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Group 1 - The paper sector experienced a slight increase of 0.02% on January 29, with Yueyang Lin Paper leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4157.98, up by 0.16%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14300.08, down by 0.3% [1] - Key stocks in the paper sector showed varied performance, with Yueyang Lin Paper rising by 4.76% to a closing price of 5.28, and other notable stocks like Kain Co. and ST Chenming also showing positive gains [1] Group 2 - The paper sector saw a net outflow of 108 million yuan from major funds, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 115 million yuan [2] - The trading volume and turnover for key stocks varied, with Kain Co. having a significant net inflow from retail investors despite an overall negative trend in major funds [3] - Individual stock performances indicated mixed results in fund flows, with some stocks like Kain Co. and Yibin Paper attracting positive retail interest, while others faced outflows [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that due to the unexpected production and profit margins from self-produced pulp, the company has raised its net profit estimates for FY26-27 by 32% and 39% to 3.6 billion and 4 billion respectively, maintaining an outperform rating and increasing the target price by 29% to HKD 9, which implies a 21% upside potential [1] Group 2 - The company's net profit for 1HFY26 exceeded both the firm's and market expectations, with a forecasted profit of 2.15-2.25 billion, and after deducting perpetual bond interest, the profit is expected to be 1.95-2.05 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 315%-337% [2] Group 3 - The boxboard and corrugated paper market is experiencing a stable recovery, with significant price increases expected in the second half of 2025 due to rising waste paper prices and the traditional peak season, leading to an anticipated stable recovery in profit margins [3] Group 4 - The company disclosed a pulp production target of 3 million tons for FY25, with expectations of over 2 million tons in 1HFY26, which is a key driver for the unexpected performance; the company’s self-produced pulp self-sufficiency rate is close to 100%, leading to higher profit margins compared to peers [4] Group 5 - The company is expected to see a recovery in financial quality for FY26, with remaining capital expenditures of approximately 11 billion, indicating a conclusion to the current capital expenditure cycle; improvements in profit and cash flow are anticipated to enhance the quality of FY26 financial reports [5]

Core Viewpoint - CICC has raised the net profit estimates for Nine Dragons Paper (02689) for FY26-27 by 32% and 39% to 3.6 billion and 4.0 billion HKD respectively, due to higher-than-expected self-produced pulp output and profit per ton [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company's net profit for 1HFY26 is expected to be between 2.15 billion and 2.25 billion HKD, with a core profit of 1.95 billion to 2.05 billion HKD, representing a year-on-year increase of 315%-337% [2] - The company is projected to achieve sales of approximately 12 million tons, with a net profit per ton of around 160 HKD, driven by lower self-produced pulp costs and higher output [2] Group 2: Market Trends - The market for corrugated paper is recovering steadily, with significant price increases expected in the second half of 2025 due to rising waste paper prices and the traditional peak season [3] - The company is positioned as the largest player in the corrugated paper market in China, holding about 25% market share, which enhances its earnings potential as the sector recovers [3] Group 3: Production Insights - The company plans to produce 3 million tons of pulp in FY25, with expectations of over 2 million tons in 1HFY26, which is a key driver for the anticipated strong performance [4] - The company’s self-produced pulp supply rate is nearly 100%, allowing it to achieve excess profits compared to peers, with expected average net profit per ton for white paper exceeding 300 HKD [4] Group 4: Financial Quality Outlook - The company is nearing the completion of its capital expenditure cycle, with planned spending of around 11 billion HKD for FY26, which is lower than previous years [5] - The company’s financial quality is expected to improve significantly in FY26, supported by enhanced profits and cash flow [5]

从评级调整方向来看，7只个股评级维持不变，1只个股为首次评级。 从获买入评级个股所属Wind行业来看，材料Ⅱ、商业和专业服务、资本货物买入评级个股数量最多， 分别有4只、1只、1只。 Wind数据显示，1月28日，共有8只个股获券商买入评级，其中3只个股公布了目标价格。按最高目标价 计算，赣锋锂业、雅化集团、太阳纸业目标涨幅排名居前，涨幅分别达50.62%、45.93%、25.16%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company has effectively implemented an integrated layout of forestry, pulp, and paper, demonstrating strong profitability that transcends industry cycles [1] Group 1: Company Advantages - The company's core advantages stem from its integrated forestry-pulp-paper model, cost moat from three major bases, and differentiated operations that control costs [1] - The company maintains industry-leading profitability with an average ROE of 14.96% from 2015 to 2024 and a net profit of 437 RMB per ton of pulp [1] - The company has a low investment per ton of paper, enhancing its depreciation cost advantage compared to competitors [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The supply-demand dynamics for pulp are expected to improve, supporting a moderate recovery in paper prices due to limited new pulp capacity and nearing completion of domestic pulp production [1] - Demand for cultural paper has not significantly increased, and there is still some new capacity for double glue paper, indicating that supply-demand imbalances may persist in the short term [1] - Future demand growth for corrugated paper is concentrated on replacing imported paper and increasing demand for eco-friendly packaging due to plastic restrictions [1] Group 3: Future Growth and Production - The company has a high degree of certainty regarding future performance growth, with 1.7 million tons of packaging paper and 470,000 tons of cultural paper expected to be produced from 2025 to 2027 [2] - The company’s self-produced pulp ensures raw material supply, with new capacity prioritized for core customers, minimizing the risk of significant losses during ramp-up [2] - The company will have 1.1 million tons of self-produced pulp coming online, further strengthening its integrated advantages and ensuring steady profitability [2] Group 4: Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 471.22 billion, 473.10 billion, and 516.25 billion RMB, reflecting year-on-year growth of 2.45%, 13.39%, and 9.12% respectively [3] - Net profit forecasts for the same period are 33.60 billion, 38.67 billion, and 45.24 billion RMB, with year-on-year growth of 8.34%, 15.11%, and 16.97% respectively [3] - The company is assigned a target price of 21.04 RMB based on a 13X PE for 2027, considering the certainty of future capacity and forestry development [3]