中国银河证券ICGS 行业点评报告·消费行业 消费温和复苏，悦已型春节消费斩露头角 2026年02月22日 核心观点 :guximin_vi@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130522070002 免签政策的持续 张迪 www.chinastock.com.cn 证券研究报告 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明 消费温和复苏，消费结构、消费格局变化更受瞩目：1）春节期间消费被寄 分析师 予厚望，政府发力组织 乐购新春" 春节特别活动， 发文 《积极推动物价合 理回升》， 针对互联网平台推动反垄断、反内卷。 2）消费呈现温和复苏的迹 何伟 象，包括客流的稳步增长， 以及核心商圈、 重点零售和餐饮企业相关消费的 ：hewei_yj@chinastock.com.cn 增长。部分消费品、 服务消费价格的提升。3）但市场并不认同消费的全面复 分析师登记编码：S0130525010001 苏，春节期间香港市场 必选消费指数、 非必选消费指数分别下 陈柏儒 美团2月13日公布 :chenbairu_yj @chinastock.com.cn 跌1.31%、 下跌3.0% 消费相 ...

根据国家统计局数据显示：2025年12月中国微型计算机设备产量为2925万台，同比下降14.1%；2025年 1-12月中国微型计算机设备累计产量为33186.1万台，累计下降2.9%。 2020-2025年中国微型计算机设备产量统计图 数据来源：国家统计局，智研咨询整理 上市企业：海尔智家（600690）,神州数码（000034）,浪潮信息（000977） 相关报告：智研咨询发布的《2026-2032年中国微型计算机行业市场运行格局及产业需求研判报告》 知前沿，问智研。智研咨询是中国一流产业咨询机构，十数年持续深耕产业研究领域，提供深度产业研 究报告、商业计划书、可行性研究报告及定制服务等一站式产业咨询服务。专业的角度、品质化的服 务、敏锐的市场洞察力，专注于提供完善的产业解决方案，为您的投资决策赋能。 ...

上市企业：格力电器（000651）,美的集团（000333）,海尔智家（600690）,海信家电（000921）,TCL科 技（000100），哈空调（600202） 相关报告：智研咨询发布的《2026-2032年中国空调行业市场现状分析及发展前景研判报告》 数据来源：国家统计局，智研咨询整理 知前沿，问智研。智研咨询是中国一流产业咨询机构，十数年持续深耕产业研究领域，提供深度产业研 究报告、商业计划书、可行性研究报告及定制服务等一站式产业咨询服务。专业的角度、品质化的服 务、敏锐的市场洞察力，专注于提供完善的产业解决方案，为您的投资决策赋能。 根据国家统计局数据显示：2025年12月中国房间空气调节器产量为2163万台，同比下降9.6%；2025年1- 12月中国房间空气调节器累计产量为26697.5万台，累计增长0.7%。 2020-2025年中国房间空气调节器产量统计图 ...

相关报告：智研咨询发布的《2026-2032年中国微型计算机行业市场运行格局及产业需求研判报告》 上市企业：海尔智家（600690）,神州数码（000034）,浪潮信息（000977） 数据来源：国家统计局，智研咨询整理 根据国家统计局数据显示：2025年12月中国电子计算机整机产量为3140万台，同比下降12.5%；2025年 1-12月中国电子计算机整机累计产量为34850.5万台，累计下降2.1%。 知前沿，问智研。智研咨询是中国一流产业咨询机构，十数年持续深耕产业研究领域，提供深度产业研 究报告、商业计划书、可行性研究报告及定制服务等一站式产业咨询服务。专业的角度、品质化的服 务、敏锐的市场洞察力，专注于提供完善的产业解决方案，为您的投资决策赋能。 2020-2025年中国电子计算机整机产量统计图 ...

智通财经APP获悉，2月23日，中指研究院发布2025中国商业地产租金指数研究报告。2025年，消费市场平稳增 长，但下半年增速放缓。消费品以旧换新政策带动家电/3C、家具等品类零售额快速增长，但餐饮消费整体增长 放缓。多数零售商业项目仍选择以价换量降空置，重点城市商铺租金跌幅扩大。2025下半年，百街商铺平均租 金为24.05元/平方米/天，环比下跌0.47%，跌幅较2025上半年扩大0.12个百分点，全年累计下跌0.81%，跌幅较 2024年累计跌幅扩大0.39个百分点。 商铺租金指数运行分析 2025年以来，提振消费各项政策落地显效，消费市场保持平稳增长。2025年，我国实现社会消费品零售总额50.1 万亿元，同比增长3.7%，增速较2024年全年加快0.2个百分点，但6月以来单月增速连续7个月下滑。消费品以旧 换新政策效果明显，2025年商品零售同比增长3.8%，增速较2024年全年加快0.6个百分点；扩大服务消费政策多 点发力，带动服务消费潜力释放，2025年服务零售额同比增长5.5%，但餐饮收入增速下滑至3.2%。多数零售商 业项目仍选择以价换量降空置，重点城市商铺租金延续2024下半年以来下跌态 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the transformation of China's manufacturing industry towards intelligent factories, driven by data and automation technologies [1][3]. - Ningbo Steel's factory exemplifies this shift, utilizing AI systems for real-time analysis and automated grading of scrap steel, resulting in a 30% reduction in R&D cycles, an 18% increase in per capita production efficiency, and a 12% improvement in energy utilization [1]. - The article notes that as of now, China has established over 35,000 basic-level, 8,200 advanced-level, and 500 excellent-level intelligent factories, along with 15 leading-level intelligent factories [3]. Group 2 - Qingdao Haier Central Air Conditioning Co., Ltd. was recognized as one of the first leading-level intelligent factories, showcasing advanced levels of customization and integration in its operations [3]. - The implementation of the intelligent factory gradient cultivation action by six departments in 2024 is accelerating the construction of intelligent factories across the country [5]. - Major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou are setting ambitious goals for AI and manufacturing integration, aiming for comprehensive coverage of intelligent factories and significant increases in robot density by 2028 [5].

Group 1 - The Xi'an City Wall scenic area has partnered with Haier Robotics to establish an "Intelligent Robot Application Innovation Laboratory for Cultural Heritage," introducing multiple rental points for exoskeleton robots to enhance visitor experience [3] - The exoskeleton robots can reduce lower limb joint pressure by 40% and delay fatigue by 60%, allowing more visitors to enjoy the cultural richness of the area [3] - The exoskeleton device weighs approximately 2 kilograms and utilizes flexible motor drive technology to provide natural assistance based on the user's movement and terrain [3] Group 2 - The integration of technology in cultural tourism has introduced new experiences, such as the "Star Wars" series robots that can engage in poetry and word games, attracting crowds and enhancing visitor interaction [5] - A robot capable of calligraphy has also been showcased, demonstrating its ability to write traditional characters with precision, further blending technology with cultural expression [5][7] - Autonomous boats equipped with intelligent driving systems are providing a seamless experience for tourists at the Kunming Pool scenic area, enhancing the overall enjoyment of the environment [7]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that the recent US Supreme Court ruling on the $175 billion tariff refund has significant implications for both China and the A-share market, despite the refund being an internal US matter [2][6][28] - The $175 billion in tariffs was primarily collected from imports, including a 10% tariff on Chinese goods, and is now being refunded to US importers [8][10] - The refund will indirectly benefit Chinese companies as US importers, who have been financially strained by tariffs, will use the refunded money to pay off debts to Chinese suppliers and resume orders [12][14][28] Group 2 - The immediate impact on the A-share market is expected to be positive, with a potential "opening red" for A-shares as market sentiment improves following the ruling [40][46] - The ruling is seen as a signal that the previous high tariffs on Chinese goods may not be a permanent state, which could lead to a more favorable environment for Chinese exports [20][48] - Structural opportunities in the A-share market are identified, focusing on five main lines: export-oriented sectors, domestic substitution, strategic resources, domestic consumption, and new energy [51][62][88] Group 3 - Export-oriented sectors, particularly those with high exposure to the US market, are expected to benefit directly from the tariff refunds, with companies like Midea Group and Haier expected to see improved performance [52][72][73] - Domestic substitution and self-sufficiency in sectors like semiconductors and military equipment are highlighted as long-term strategic focuses, with companies like SMIC and AVIC Shenyang Aircraft being key players [53][78][86] - Strategic resources such as rare earths and gold are also expected to see price support due to ongoing global supply chain disruptions, benefiting companies like Northern Rare Earth and Shandong Gold [56][87]

Company Performance - Haier Smart Home reported a revenue of 234.05 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 9.98% [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 17.37 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 14.68% [2] - Despite a net inflow of 2.10 million yuan on February 13, there were instances of net outflow, such as 8.06 million yuan on February 10, indicating mixed market sentiment [2] Industry Policy and Environment - The home appliance industry is undergoing a structural transformation, with a forecasted shift to a "weak recovery + structural growth" phase by 2026, driven by emerging fields like smart home technology and AI displays [3] - Haier Smart Home faces challenges related to "narrative premium loss," as its business remains heavily focused on traditional appliances like refrigerators and washing machines, with a TTM P/E ratio of approximately 10.4 times [3] - Competitors like Midea Group have achieved higher valuations by transitioning towards technology narratives [3] Company Strategy - To address market volatility, Haier Smart Home is implementing share buybacks and increasing its cash dividend payout ratio to 50% for the 2025-2026 fiscal years [4] - The company is strategically focusing on the smart home ecosystem and advancing the listing processes for its subsidiaries, Kaos and Haier New Energy, to explore new growth opportunities [4]

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the growth trends in China's home refrigerator market, projecting a production increase in the coming years, with specific data on production volumes and growth rates [1]. Industry Overview - According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the production of home refrigerators in China reached 10.01 million units in December 2025, marking a year-on-year growth of 5.7% [1]. - The cumulative production of home refrigerators for the entire year of 2025 was 109.244 million units, reflecting a cumulative growth of 1.6% [1]. Market Analysis - The report titled "2026-2032 China Ultra-Low Temperature Refrigerator Industry Market In-Depth Analysis and Future Trend Forecast" by Zhiyan Consulting provides insights into the market dynamics and future trends of the ultra-low temperature refrigerator segment [1]. - Zhiyan Consulting is recognized as a leading industry consulting firm in China, specializing in comprehensive industry research reports and tailored consulting services [1].