【黄金期货最新行情】 | 7月28日 | 收盘价（元/克） | 当日涨跌幅 | 成交量（手） | 持仓量（手） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪金主力 | 774.78 | -0.33% | 256019 | 209675 | 打开APP，查看更多高清行情>> 【基本面消息】 数据显示，7月28日上海黄金现货价格报价770.19元/克，相较于期货主力价格（774.78元/克）贴水4.59 元/克。 尽管年初有关关税可能引发通胀和经济放缓的担忧甚嚣尘上，美国经济却展现出惊人的韧性。消费者物 价涨幅温和，劳动力市场虽有放缓迹象，但尚未出现大幅恶化。经济学家普遍认为，只要劳动力市场保 持稳定，消费支出就不会显著下滑，从而支撑经济增长。然而，私营部门就业增长已降至八个月低点， 招聘活动放缓，大学毕业生就业难度加大，这些信号表明经济并非毫无瑕疵。 6月份，美国同比通胀率因关税影响略有上升，而一篮子领先经济指标显示，下半年经济增长可能放 缓。考克斯指出，当前市场对就业市场放缓的乐观情绪令人费解。她警告称，一旦就业市场显著恶化， 消费支出可能受到抑制，进而拖累经济增长。这种背景下， ...

7月26日，中国资本市场学会成立大会暨第一届第一次会员代表大会在上海召开。这标志着中国资本市 场拥有了官方顶级"思想库"和"智囊团"。 会议表决通过《中国资本市场学会章程》等重要制度，设立宏观与产业、市场稳定与风险防控、创新发 展、市场微观结构、期货与衍生品、国际市场与对外开放、法治与投资者保护等7个专业委员会，选举 产生学会第一届会员理事和学会负责人。中国证监会主席吴清当选学会第一届理事会会长，中国证监会 副主席李超当选学会第一届理事会执行副会长。 会议指出，成立中国资本市场学会，是贯彻落实习近平总书记关于金融工作重要论述和党中央、国务院 决策部署的重要举措，是回应时代要求、破解发展难题、提高监管和发展水平的重要抓手，是走好中国 特色金融发展之路、推动深化资本市场改革的关键举措，对促进资本市场高质量发展具有重要意义。 会议强调，当前资本市场已经沉淀了一支比较强的研究力量，在更高起点上，学会既要立意高远又要脚 踏实地，面向国家重大战略、面向资本市场前沿领域、面向监管重大问题，广泛深入开展研究，打造成 为资本市场研究的重要阵地；要通过建设数字化研究交流平台，创办学术研究刊物，举办高水平学术年 会，构建资本市场权 ...

Core Viewpoint - The natural rubber futures market is showing a strong performance, with prices increasing and various factors influencing supply and demand dynamics [1] Price Movement - As of July 25, the main contract for natural rubber is priced at 15,625.00 CNY/ton, reflecting a 3.20% increase [1] - The Shanghai market's 2023 SCRWF mainstream transaction price ranges from 15,350 to 15,400 CNY/ton, up by 400 CNY/ton from the previous day [1] Supply Dynamics - The Shanghai Futures Exchange reported a total of 186,680 tons of natural rubber warehouse receipts as of July 24, a decrease of 20 tons from the previous week [1] - Thailand's natural rubber exports for the first half of 2025 totaled 1.386 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2% [1] - Specific export figures include: standard rubber at 804,000 tons (down 12% year-on-year), sheet rubber at 196,000 tons (up 26%), and latex at 377,000 tons (up 12%) [1] Market Sentiment - According to Guotai Junan Futures, the upward momentum in the rubber market is slightly weakening, with a diminishing bullish sentiment and increased resistance from downstream buyers towards high-priced sources [1] - Hualian Futures notes that large-scale infrastructure projects are beneficial for the demand of all-steel tires, with macroeconomic expectations supporting rubber prices [1] Demand Factors - Domestic real estate sector struggles are negatively impacting rubber demand, with a deepening year-on-year decline in real estate development investment from January to June [1] - However, demand from large engineering projects is improving heavy truck sales, which saw a year-on-year increase of approximately 29% in June [1] - The operating rate for all-steel tires is at a relatively low level, while the operating rate for semi-steel tires has recently rebounded significantly [1] Operational Recommendations - The recommendation is to reduce long positions while maintaining holdings, with the support level for RU09 raised to around 14,500 CNY [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the urea market is experiencing price increases due to policy expectations aimed at eliminating outdated production capacity and optimizing supply structure [1][2][4] - Urea futures for the main contract closed at 1812 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 3.07%, while spot prices in Shandong and Henan regions also saw increases of 20 yuan/ton and 30 yuan/ton respectively [1] - The proportion of outdated production capacity in the urea industry, particularly those using fixed bed gasification processes, has significantly decreased from about 40% in 2022 to 10% as of July 2023 [2][3] Group 2 - The policy impact on the urea industry is primarily focused on phasing out outdated production capacity and optimizing supply structures, with the economic inefficiency of older technologies driving their exit from the market [2][3] - Despite being in a traditional maintenance season, overall urea supply remains at historically high levels, and agricultural demand is expected to decline after the summer fertilization period [3][4] - The adjustment of export policies has led to a weakened expectation of domestic supply being overly relaxed, with an anticipated export volume of over 3.5 million tons for the year [4][5] Group 3 - Analysts suggest that the actual impact of policies on urea production capacity is limited in the short term, with approximately 2.6 million tons of new capacity expected to enter the market [4] - The market sentiment is showing signs of recovery, with potential price rebound driven by the high proportion of production capacity over 20 years old [5] - Price support is expected to be in the range of 1680 to 1700 yuan/ton, while resistance is seen between 1850 and 1870 yuan/ton [5]

7月21日盘中，焦煤期货主力合约遭遇一波急速上涨，最高上探至1005.5元。截止发稿，焦煤主力合约 报992.5元，涨幅6.43%。 焦煤期货主力涨超6%，对于后市行情如何，相关机构该如何评价？ 焦煤价格上涨主要受益于"反内卷"政策预期和印尼出口关税炒作。当前来看，印尼方面表态关税最快也 将在2026年实施，短期供给端实质性扰动有限。国内方面，焦炭仍有刚需支撑，钢厂利润尚可，但6月 宏观数据显示需求端恢复有限，政策预期落地前市场博弈加剧。考虑到月底政治局经济会议带来新一轮 情绪刺激，短期焦煤维持偏强运行的概率较大，但应防范利多出尽后的情绪反转风险。 长江期货：焦煤短期或延续偏强运行 供应方面，主产区供应呈现区域分化特征，前期停产煤矿陆续复产，但产能释放仍需时间；吕梁区域因 环保检查趋严，部分煤矿暂时停产，复产时间待定，区域内供应阶段性收紧。进口方面，蒙古国炼焦煤 市场情绪回暖，下游采购意愿回升。需求方面，焦企原料煤补库需求持续释放，不过到货情况尚未明显 改善，叠加坑口预售订单旺盛、库存持续去化等因素，支撑产地煤价上行；同时，铁水产量超预期增加 带动市场情绪升温，焦炭再涨预期强化，进一步提振焦企补库积极性。不过 ...

【黄金期货行情表现】 美国总统宣布将对等关税谈判推迟至2025年8月1日，宣布自8月1日起美国将对多国征收高额关税，例如 来自墨西哥和欧盟的输美产品征收30%的关税。美国财政赤字和关税政策加剧通胀担忧。美国6月核心 CPI环比增长0.2%，略低于市场预估的0.3%，前值为0.1%。美国6月CPI仅温和上升，核心CPI不及预 期，6月PPI也不及预期，市场怀疑关税对通胀的影响，但美联储或将仍保持谨慎，关税的对通胀的抬升 可能在未来一两个月的数据中体现。隔夜因为美联储主席的传言与澄清，7月16日美元指数大幅波动， 较前一交易日收低。同样原因，夜盘黄金和白银价格盘中一度大幅波动，后回归中间位置。交易策略： 黄金价格震荡，COMEX 金运行在 3250-3480 美元/盎司，国内沪金主连运行在 750-800 元/克之间，白 银在7月14日创新高之后，短线回调整理，多头继续持仓。 美国总统特朗普表示，斯科特·贝森特是接替杰罗姆·鲍威尔担任美联储主席的一个选择，但暗示他不是 领先人选，因为其在财长职位上做得很成功。特朗普还再次抨击鲍威尔，称其及其同僚抓住了美联储翻 修工程的机会，称该工程一直受到成本超支的困扰。特朗普暗 ...

Core Viewpoint - The successful launch of the "Silver Futures Insurance" project for corn in Tacheng, Xinjiang marks the first of its kind in the region, aiming to enhance farmers' income security through an innovative "insurance + futures" model [1][2] Group 1: Project Overview - The "Silver Futures Insurance" project was initiated by Shenyin Wanguo Futures and is part of the Dalian Commodity Exchange's (DCE) "Farmers' Income Guarantee Plan" for 2025 [1] - The project covers a total insured area of 30,000 acres with a project amount of 48 million yuan [1] - The model integrates leading enterprises, banks, insurance, and futures to address financing and grain selling challenges for farmers [1] Group 2: Model Innovation - The "Silver Futures Insurance" is an upgraded version of the traditional "insurance + futures" model, which now includes banks and agricultural leading enterprises to provide comprehensive support from planting to selling [2] - This model allows farmers to secure sales channels through forward contracts with buyers, ensuring income stability and facilitating bank loans [2] - The project also offers "secondary pricing" opportunities through futures derivatives, enhancing agricultural efficiency and farmers' income [2] Group 3: Future Directions - Shenyin Wanguo Futures plans to continue innovating within the "bank + insurance + futures" model, leveraging the unique advantages of the futures market for price discovery and risk management [2] - The company aims to connect various resources and expand service areas to improve service quality, contributing to rural revitalization efforts [2]

Core Viewpoint - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has proposed a draft for the classification evaluation of futures companies, aiming to enhance compliance, risk control, and service to the real economy, while promoting innovation in the industry [1][2][3]. Summary by Sections Regulatory Changes - The draft includes 44 articles that clarify the scoring criteria for futures companies, optimizing both the deduction and addition standards, and simplifying the evaluation process [2][3]. - The deduction standards will shift from subjective discretion to rigid quantification, allowing for automatic deductions based on clear risk indicators [2][3]. Focus on Compliance and Innovation - The new evaluation criteria emphasize the importance of compliance and service to the real economy as core competitive advantages for futures companies [3][6]. - The draft encourages futures companies to enhance their service capabilities to meet the diverse needs of market participants in risk management and resource allocation [9][10]. Industry Dynamics - The proposed changes are expected to accelerate industry concentration, with leading firms gaining more advantages, while smaller firms may face increased survival pressure [7][8]. - The industry is encouraged to adopt a differentiated development strategy, with larger firms focusing on comprehensive services and smaller firms specializing in niche markets [8][9]. Future Development Directions - Futures companies are advised to enhance their capabilities in serving the real economy, increase their global pricing power for bulk commodities, and transition towards digitalization [10][11]. - The industry is urged to leverage policy opportunities and deepen collaboration with trading venues, real enterprises, and financial institutions to achieve a transformation from "channel service providers" to "comprehensive risk management providers" [11][12].

Report Highlights 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The global economy in the macro and financial sector is rated as "Bullish (Slightly)" [1] 2. Core View - The US faces a large - scale debt problem, with about $12 trillion in Treasury bonds to be sold in the next year, which may lead to a "fiscal heart attack." The passage of a related bill is uncertain and has raised concerns [1] - There are different views on the valuation of US stocks. Goldman Sachs believes it is too high, while others think US stocks are supported by solid balance sheets, and European trading is more speculative [1] - Neuralink has the potential to revolutionize human - machine interaction, with the ultimate goal of achieving a full - brain interface and transforming the human brain into a "biological + digital" brain [1] - The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission has issued licenses to 11 virtual asset trading platforms, and there are ongoing institutional applications [1] - A New York mayoral candidate advocates for a more equitable city by taxing the top 1% of the wealthy to fund public services [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Important Information - The US needs to sell about $12 trillion in Treasury bonds in the next year, including $1 trillion for interest payments, $9 trillion for debt repayment, and an additional $2 trillion due to a $2 trillion deficit [1] - The passage of a bill with a large - scale debt is uncertain, and some senators oppose it [1] - Different views on US and European stock markets: Goldman Sachs thinks US stock valuation is too high, while others believe US stocks have solid balance sheets, and European trading depends on infrastructure plans [1] - Neuralink can enable humans to control Tesla Optimus robots with thoughts, and its ultimate goal is a full - brain interface [1] - The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission has issued licenses to 11 virtual asset trading platforms, and institutions are applying for related services [1] - A New York mayoral candidate wants to tax the top 1% to fund public services [1] Global Economic Logic - The US President claims to have reached a trade agreement with China, and the expectation of a Fed rate cut in September is rising [1] - The US June Markit manufacturing PMI final value is 52.0, indicating continued expansion. China's June PMI production index continues to expand, and the new order index resumes expansion [1] - The Swiss National Bank cuts interest rates by 25 basis points to 0. The European Central Bank has cut interest rates 8 times, and Germany's 30% military expansion boosts European manufacturing [1] - China is comprehensively rectifying involution - style competition [1]

Core Viewpoint - The futures company classification evaluation system in China is undergoing systematic revision to better reflect the current market conditions and enhance the evaluation process for futures companies [1][2][3]. Group 1: Regulatory Changes - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has released a draft for public consultation regarding the classification evaluation of futures companies, consisting of 44 articles aimed at optimizing scoring standards and simplifying evaluation processes [1][2]. - The revised classification evaluation will establish a comprehensive income evaluation system that encourages futures companies to serve industrial clients and long-term institutional funds, promoting high-quality development in the futures industry [1][8]. Group 2: Evaluation Criteria - The classification evaluation will utilize a scoring system with a baseline score of 100, with deductions and additions based on compliance and risk management performance, categorizing companies into five classes (A, B, C, D, E) with 11 levels [4][5]. - The draft clarifies the deduction standards, specifying that violations leading to regulatory measures will incur point deductions ranging from 0.5 to 10 points, depending on the severity of the violation [4][5]. Group 3: Adjustments to Scoring - The draft removes the minimum compliance score for market competitiveness and adjusts the scoring for serious violations, ensuring that companies with significant infractions do not receive competitive advantage points [5][6]. - New indicators for evaluating service to the real economy have been introduced, including "average daily positions of industrial clients" and "average daily positions of long-term fund clients," emphasizing support for these client types [6][7]. Group 4: Implications for Industry - The revised evaluation framework is expected to enhance objectivity and fairness, guiding futures companies towards compliance and reinforcing their role in serving the real economy, particularly benefiting well-managed leading futures companies [8]. - The changes are seen as a strategic direction for the development of futures companies, with a focus on compliance, service to the real economy, and innovation [8].