丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨行业周报丨钢铁 [Table_Title] 回顾反内卷政策，2026 年钢铁分级管理怎么走？ 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 回顾 2025 年，反内卷无疑是钢铁行业最受关注的交易主线。作为低价内卷的典型行业，也是 过往供改的重点行业，市场期待随着反内卷的渐进深化，钢铁的供给侧具有出清的预期。尽管 2025 年暂未看到反内卷的具体举措落地，但通过对重点政策的系统性梳理，可以清晰地理出 "分级管理、扶优劣汰"的调控思路。随着 2026 年政策抓手和配套政策的进一步完善，行业 有望迎来供给侧出清的机遇。考虑到近年来产量压减政策的延续性和"扶优劣汰"的思路，不 规范企业或具有更大的产量压减幅度，从而具有市场化出清的预期。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 王鹤涛 赵超 易轰 吕士诚 SAC：S0490512070002 SAC：S0490519030001 SAC：S0490520080012 SAC：S0490525080005 SFC：BQT626 SFC：BUY139 SFC：BUZ394 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the steel industry is "Positive" [2] Core Insights - The steel sector has shown resilience with a weekly increase of 1.93%, outperforming the broader market, while specific segments like special steel and iron ore also saw gains [2][11] - Supply and demand dynamics indicate a tightening supply situation, with high furnace capacity utilization at 84.9% and a slight decrease in production [3][25] - The report highlights the potential for value recovery in the steel sector, particularly for companies with high gross margins and strong cost control [4] Supply Summary - As of December 19, the capacity utilization rate for blast furnaces among sample steel companies is 84.9%, down by 0.99 percentage points week-on-week [3][25] - Daily average pig iron production is 2.2655 million tons, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 2.65 thousand tons [3][25] - The total production of five major steel products is 6.918 million tons, down by 3.92 thousand tons week-on-week [3][25] Demand Summary - The consumption of five major steel products reached 8.353 million tons as of December 19, a decrease of 4.44 thousand tons week-on-week [3][35] - The transaction volume of construction steel by mainstream traders is 99 thousand tons, showing a slight increase of 0.10 thousand tons week-on-week [3][35] Inventory Summary - Social inventory of five major steel products is 9.065 million tons, down by 352.6 thousand tons week-on-week, but up 18.06% year-on-year [3][44] - Factory inventory stands at 3.883 million tons, down by 2.05 thousand tons week-on-week, with a year-on-year increase of 10.75% [3][44] Price & Profit Summary - The comprehensive index for ordinary steel is 3,448.7 yuan/ton, up by 14.76 yuan/ton week-on-week [3][50] - The profit for rebar produced in blast furnaces is 42 yuan/ton, which has doubled week-on-week [3][57] - The average cost of pig iron is 2,423 yuan/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 9.0 yuan/ton [3][57] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on regional leaders with advanced equipment and environmental standards, as well as companies benefiting from the new energy cycle and high-end steel production [4] - Specific companies to watch include Shandong Steel, Hualing Steel, and Baosteel, among others, which are positioned for growth and value recovery [4]

Core Insights - The article highlights the technological advancements in steel production, specifically the development of ultra-thin steel sheets, which reflects a blend of historical craftsmanship and modern engineering [1] Group 1: Historical Context - "Tiangong Kaiwu," a 17th-century Chinese encyclopedia, illustrates the principles of metallurgy that resonate with modern practices, showcasing the evolution of steel production techniques [1] - The book documents the thriving handcraft and mining industries of its time, emphasizing the historical significance of steelmaking in China [1] Group 2: Technological Advancements - Baowu Steel Group's silicon steel production line has achieved remarkable results, transforming a 10-ton hot-rolled raw material from a length of 100 meters to over 10,000 meters and reducing its thickness from 2.3 millimeters to just 0.08 millimeters [1] - This technological leap is attributed to the team's dedication to product quality and their relentless pursuit of excellence in material limits [1] Group 3: Cultural Significance - The journey from ancient texts to modern steel foils symbolizes the enduring spirit of Chinese craftsmen who continue to explore the limits of materials [1]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of macroeconomic research as a critical component of the investment system, suggesting that many past concerns about the Chinese economy were overblown, and a new narrative focusing on innovation and industrial manufacturing is emerging [1] - It highlights the cyclical nature of stock valuations, indicating that understanding undervaluation and overvaluation is essential for successful investment strategies [1] - The steel industry is currently positioned at an absolute undervaluation, presenting a significant opportunity for value investment, with expectations of recovery in capital returns as capacity utilization improves [4] Industry Trends - The report notes that the steel industry is entering a long-term decline phase following industrial maturity, characterized by stable demand and low capital returns, with a projected capacity utilization rate of 82% in 2026 [4] - It discusses the cyclical trajectory of the steel industry, indicating that the current low capital returns are conducive to supply adjustments and potential mergers within the industry [4] - The report anticipates that the marginal recovery in capacity utilization in 2026 will further enhance capital returns in the steel sector, contingent on effective policy implementation [4] Investment Strategy - The report recommends focusing on companies that are likely to benefit from improving capital returns, such as Baosteel, Hesteel, Nanjing Steel, and Xinyu Steel, as they are expected to provide significant investment value despite having moved away from absolute undervaluation [4] - It emphasizes the need for a detailed approach to selecting specific stocks within the steel sector, as the overall market dynamics shift towards a more stable economic environment [4] - The report suggests that the investment strategy should adapt to the changing economic landscape, where excess capital in society will influence market trends and stock valuations [4]

新余钢铁股份有限公司 2025 年第四次临时股东会 会议资料 二〇二五年十二月 1 会议须知 为维护股东的合法权益，确保本次股东会的正常秩序，根据公司章程 和股东会议事规则的有关规定，特制定本须知。 一、股东会会议具体程序方面的事宜由公司董秘室负责。 二、出席本次大会的对象为股权登记日（2025 年 12 月 24 日）在册 的股东；现场登记时间为 2025 年 12 月 26 日。 三、出席会议的股东或股东代理人请于会议开始前半个小时内到达会 议地点，并携带本人有效身份证件、股票账户卡、授权委托书等原件，以 便验证入场。 四、股东参加股东会应遵循本次大会议事规则，共同维护大会秩序， 依法享有发言权、质询权、表决权等各项权利。 五、本次股东会安排股东发言时间不超过一小时，股东在大会上要求 发言，需向大会秘书处(董事会办公室)登记。发言顺序根据持股数量的多 少和登记次序确定。发言内容应围绕大会的主要议案。每位股东的发言时 间不超过五分钟。 3 本次股东会采取现场投票与网络投票相结合的方式。股东以其所持有 的有表决权的股份数额行使表决权。对于非累积投票议案，股东每一股份 享有一票表决权，出席现场会议的股东在投票表 ...

2025年1-10月，黑色金属冶炼和压延加工业企业数（以下数据涉及的企业，均为规模以上工业企业，从 2011年起，规模以上工业企业起点标准由原来的年主营业务收入500万元提高到年主营业务收入2000万 元）为6298个，和上年同期相比，增加了15个，同比增长0.24%，占工业总企业的比重为1.2%。 2016-2025年1-10月黑色金属冶炼和压延加工业企业数统计图 上市公司：中信特钢（000708），河钢股份（000709），中南股份（000717），本钢板材（000761）， 三钢闽光（002110），久立特材（002318），金洲管道（002443），常宝股份（002478），盛德鑫泰 （300881），安阳钢铁（600569），八一钢铁（600581），新钢股份（600782），马钢股份（600808） 数据来源：国家统计局，智研咨询整理 相关报告：智研咨询发布的《2026-2032年中国黑色金属矿采选业行业市场全景调查及投资前景预测报 告》 知前沿，问智研。智研咨询是中国一流产业咨询机构，十数年持续深耕产业研究领域，提供深度产业研 究报告、商业计划书、可行性研究报告及定制服务等一站式产业咨询服务。专 ...

Core Insights - Longi Green Energy collaborates with Sente to integrate photovoltaic technology with building technology, transforming steel factory rooftops into power generation stations, which is crucial for cost reduction and green transformation in the steel industry [1] Group 1: Industry Context - The steel production industry is a high energy-consuming sector, with electricity consumption increasingly impacting operational costs [1] - Longi Sente's BIPV (Building-Integrated Photovoltaics) targets the actual needs of steel production, providing green electricity solutions to unlock spatial value and utilize rooftop resources [1] Group 2: Project Highlights - The Baowu Tai Steel new hot-rolling plant project incorporated Longi Sente's roofing system from the construction phase, integrating photovoltaic components with the roof structure to avoid resource waste, resulting in a carbon reduction of approximately 240,000 tons over the project's lifecycle [1] - The project also achieved significant energy cost savings and established a competitive advantage in carbon asset accumulation, providing an efficient green transformation path for new plants [1] Group 3: Technological Innovations - The Baowu New Steel silicon steel plant's rooftop renovation using Longi Sente's roofing system eliminated leakage issues through non-destructive connection technology, saving maintenance costs and generating an annual electricity output of 55.5 million kilowatt-hours [3] - The curved roofs, previously considered unsuitable for photovoltaic installations, were successfully utilized in projects by Shan Steel Long Steel and Jiangsu Changqiang Steel, achieving lifecycle electricity outputs of 227 million kilowatt-hours and 445 million kilowatt-hours, respectively [5] - Longi Sente's photovoltaic system features a dust prevention design that allows for self-cleaning through rainwater, enhancing electricity generation by 6% compared to traditional photovoltaic products [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the steel industry, indicating a positive outlook for selected companies within the sector [6]. Core Insights - The steel industry is experiencing a divergence between strong expectations and weak realities, with production data quality declining since May 2023, impacting demand assessments [2]. - China's apparent steel consumption increased by 3.6% year-on-year from January to November, but November alone saw a decline of 3.3% [2]. - The net export of steel reached 10.218 million tons from January to November, a year-on-year increase of 7.6%, driven by strong manufacturing exports [3]. - Domestic policies are shifting focus towards basic economic fundamentals, with an emphasis on proactive fiscal policies and moderate monetary easing [4]. Summary by Sections Production and Consumption - In November 2025, crude steel production was 6.987 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 10.9%, while the average daily production was 2.329 million tons, showing a slight month-on-month increase of 0.3% [8]. - The apparent consumption of steel in China for the first eleven months of 2025 grew by 3.6% year-on-year, with a notable decline in November [2]. Exports and Imports - Steel exports for January to November 2025 totaled 10.772 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6.7% [8]. - The import of iron ore in November was 11.054 million tons, up 8.5% year-on-year, while cumulative imports for the first eleven months increased by 1.4% [8]. Policy and Market Outlook - The report anticipates that the focus of domestic policies will increasingly center on structural adjustments, with an expectation of continued fiscal easing and reforms [4]. - The report highlights potential investment opportunities in undervalued companies within the steel sector, such as Huazhong Steel and Baosteel, which are expected to benefit from upcoming economic cycles [4].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that steel demand is expected to gradually bottom out, and the supply side is beginning to show signs of market-driven clearance, with a potential recovery in the steel industry's fundamentals [1] - The report indicates a decrease in demand and inventory levels, with apparent consumption of five major steel varieties at 8.397 million tons, down 2.83% week-on-week and 4.76% year-on-year [2] - The production of five major steel varieties was 8.062 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 22.7 thousand tons, while total inventory stood at 13.32 million tons, down 33.5% week-on-week [2] Group 2 - The average gross profit for rebar was 169.8 CNY/ton, an increase of 22.2 CNY/ton week-on-week, while hot-rolled coil showed a gross profit of -30.2 CNY/ton, a decrease of 17.8 CNY/ton [3] - Approximately 65% of steel companies are currently operating at a loss, and the market-driven clearance of supply is beginning to occur [4] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has released a plan to continue implementing production reduction policies, which is expected to promote a dynamic balance between supply and demand [4] Group 3 - The long-term outlook for the steel industry includes an increase in industry concentration and a focus on high-quality development, benefiting companies with product structure and cost advantages [5] - Key recommendations include companies like Baosteel (600019), Hualing Steel (000932), and Shougang (000959), which have leading technology and product structures [5] - The report also highlights the potential of upstream resource companies such as Hebei Steel Resources (000923) and Dazhong Mining (001203) in the context of demand recovery [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the steel industry is Neutral, maintained [10] Core Insights - The Ministry of Foreign Trade announced the implementation of export license management for certain steel products starting January 1, 2026, aimed at curbing low-end exports represented by "buy-order exports" [2][6] - The management of export licenses is expected to disrupt the operations of shell trading companies, which have been exploiting tax evasion through fictitious contracts [6][7] - Short-term impacts may include a surge in exports before the new regulations take effect, but long-term benefits are anticipated as the industry adjusts to reduced low-end production and improved cost structures [7] Summary by Sections Export License Management - The announcement on December 12, 2025, includes a list of steel products that will require export licenses, which must be obtained based on export contracts and quality inspection certificates [2][6] - The goal is to strengthen export management and eliminate low-end exports that have been detrimental to the market [6] Market Conditions - Recent data shows a significant decline in iron output, with daily production dropping to 2.29 million tons, reflecting a decrease of 3.10 thousand tons per day [4] - Steel inventory has decreased by 2.56% week-on-week, but is up 14.27% year-on-year, indicating a mixed inventory situation [5] Price Trends - Steel prices have shown a downward trend, with Shanghai rebar prices falling to 3,250 CNY per ton, a decrease of 20 CNY per ton week-on-week [5] - The profit margins for rebar have turned negative, with immediate profits at -56 CNY per ton and lagging profits at -85 CNY per ton [5] Future Outlook - The implementation of export license management is expected to create a short-term export pulse, but may lead to a temporary supply-demand imbalance in early 2026 [7] - Long-term benefits include a reduction in raw material demand and the exit of outdated production capacities, which could improve the overall market conditions for quality steel producers [7][28]