证券研究报告·行业跟踪周报·非银金融 非银金融行业跟踪周报 继续看好保险股估值修复；关注券商股主题 性机会 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 2025 年 06 月 22 日 证券分析师 孙婷 执业证书：S0600524120001 sunt@dwzq.com.cn 研究助理 罗宇康 执业证书：S0600123090002 luoyk@dwzq.com.cn 行业走势 -9% -2% 5% 12% 19% 26% 33% 40% 47% 54% 61% 2024/6/24 2024/10/22 2025/2/19 2025/6/19 非银金融 沪深300 相关研究 《权益 ETF 系列：震荡行情可能会持 续较长时间。》 2025-06-22 《金融开放与资本市场改革迈出新一 步》 2025-06-18 东吴证券研究所 1 / 16 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 ◼ 非银行金融子行业近期表现：最近 5 个交易日（2025 年 06 月 16 日-2025 年 06 月 20 日）非银金融板块各子行业中仅保险板块跑赢沪深 300 指 数。保险行业上涨 0.24%， ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the non-bank financial sector is expected to benefit from policy changes, particularly the marginal easing of IPO regulations on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, which will favor brokerage investment banking and direct investment businesses [3] - The report emphasizes the importance of regulatory measures that link the dividend levels of insurance products to investment returns and risk ratings, which is expected to enhance the performance of large insurance companies [3] - The brokerage sector is anticipated to see continued growth in performance, supported by low valuations and institutional holdings, with a focus on retail brokers and financial technology companies [3] Summary by Sections Industry Trends - The non-bank financial sector is projected to outperform the overall market, with a focus on the positive impact of regulatory reforms and market conditions [1][3] - The average daily trading volume for stock funds was 1.46 trillion, showing a week-on-week decrease of 7.7% [3] Regulatory Developments - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has introduced new measures to deepen reforms on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, which includes the establishment of a growth tier to support technology companies that are not yet profitable [3] - New regulations on the classification of brokerages aim to promote differentiated development and enhance the functional assessment of brokerages [3] Recommended and Beneficiary Stocks - Recommended stocks include Jiangsu Jinzheng, Hong Kong Stock Exchange, and China Pacific Insurance [4] - Beneficiary stocks include Guosen Securities, Jiufang Zhitu Holdings, and China Galaxy Securities [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the insurance sector [7] Core Insights - The report highlights the upcoming Lujiazui Financial Forum, which will introduce further reforms under the "1+6" policy measures, aiming to enhance the capital market ecosystem and investor protection, indicating a stable market trend [2][4] - Current insurance valuations reflect a pessimistic long-term investment outlook, but with improving liability costs and concentration, the valuations are considered safe [4] - The report recommends companies such as Jiangsu Jinzheng, China Ping An, and China Pacific Insurance based on their stable earnings and dividends [4] - Additional recommendations include New China Life, China Life, Hong Kong Exchanges, CITIC Securities, Dongfang Wealth, Tonghuashun, and Jiufang Zhitu Holdings based on performance elasticity and valuation levels [2][4] Industry Performance - The non-bank financial index decreased by 1.1% this week, with a year-to-date decline of 5.3%, ranking 25th out of 31 sectors [5] - The average daily trading volume in the market was 12,150.34 billion yuan, down 11.42% week-on-week, with a daily turnover rate of 1.54% [5][36] - The bond market showed an increase, with the 10-year government bond yield decreasing by 0.44 basis points to 1.6396% [5] Insurance Sector Overview - In April 2025, the cumulative premium income reached 25,954 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.25%, with property insurance income at 6,486 billion yuan (+5.19%) and life insurance income at 19,469 billion yuan (+1.31%) [21][22] - The total assets of insurance companies reached 38.12 trillion yuan in April 2025, with life insurance companies holding 33.40 trillion yuan [25][26] Key Industry News - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) announced that qualified foreign institutional investors will be allowed to participate in ETF options trading starting from October 9, 2025 [58] - The CSRC also released opinions on enhancing the inclusivity and adaptability of the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, aiming to support high-quality technology enterprises [59][62]

Core Insights - The first research instrument open-sharing loss compensation insurance has been implemented in Suzhou, providing over 4 million yuan in risk coverage for shared scientific equipment [1][2] - The initiative addresses long-standing issues related to damage liability, making it easier for institutions to share high-end research instruments [1][2] Group 1: Insurance Implementation - The insurance scheme integrates a "sharing economy + technology insurance" model, covering risks from design defects, installation errors, and operational mistakes [2] - This measure alleviates safety concerns for instrument-holding units and removes barriers for small and medium-sized innovative enterprises in utilizing high-end equipment [2] Group 2: Impact on Research and Development - The insurance boosts confidence among research teams to fully utilize high-end equipment in their testing services, enabling them to provide more comprehensive and advanced testing services to enterprises [2] - The local technology department plans to collaborate with instrument management departments, universities, and maintenance units to promote further sharing of research instruments, enhancing the efficiency of technological resource sharing [2]

Group 1 - The article discusses the recent performance of ETFs, highlighting that the leading sector is the liquor industry, followed by Hong Kong financial and dividend ETFs, particularly the Hong Kong non-bank ETF 513750 [1] - The rise in the liquor sector is attributed to a reversal of extreme pessimism regarding internal regulations on dining, with state media intervening to clarify the situation, providing market reassurance [1] - Despite the positive sentiment, the fundamental trend shows that the price of bulk Feitian Moutai has dropped to 1900 yuan, indicating a continued downward trend [1] Group 2 - The surge in Hong Kong financial stocks, especially non-bank financials, is linked to a recent regulatory document from the Financial Regulatory Bureau, which restricts life insurance companies from arbitrarily increasing dividend levels on their products [1][2] - This regulation is expected to lower overall costs for the insurance industry, benefiting leading insurance companies as they will face less competitive pressure from smaller firms [8] Group 3 - The article explains the mechanics of dividend insurance, where the fixed guaranteed return is lower than that of pure fixed-rate insurance, theoretically reducing the payout pressure on insurance companies [2] - The concept of a "dividend special reserve" is introduced, which allows insurance companies to smooth out dividend payouts by retaining excess earnings during profitable years to cover shortfalls during downturns [3][4] Group 4 - The article highlights two main issues with the application of dividend insurance: the lack of regulation leading to arbitrary pricing and the negative balance in many companies' dividend special reserves, which forces them to use capital to maintain high dividend payouts [5][6] - The regulatory changes aim to establish clear guidelines for dividend levels based on the financial health of the companies, ensuring that high dividends are not promised when reserves are negative [6] Group 5 - The overall impact of the new regulations is positive for insurance companies as it reduces their liability costs and creates a more level playing field, favoring larger firms [8] - Investors in insurance products should be cautious about the potential divergence between actual dividends and the rates presented during marketing, as well as the inherent risks associated with the institutions offering these products [8] Group 6 - The article suggests monitoring opportunities in the Hong Kong non-bank sector, particularly the non-bank ETF 513750, due to the concentration of leading insurance companies and favorable valuation compared to A-shares [10][11] - The article notes that the Hong Kong insurance sector has lower valuations and higher dividend yields compared to A-shares, indicating potential for greater elasticity in a favorable market environment [11]

Core Viewpoint - The Hang Seng High Dividend Yield Index (HSSCHKY) has shown positive performance, with key constituent stocks experiencing notable gains, indicating a favorable investment environment driven by policy adjustments and credit environment recovery [3][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of June 20, 2025, the HSSCHKY index increased by 0.54%, with significant gains from stocks such as China Coal Energy (3.23%) and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (2.16%) [3]. - The BoShi Hang Seng High Dividend ETF (513690) reported a 0.30% increase, with a latest price of 1 yuan and a turnover rate of 2.41%, totaling 101 million yuan in transactions [3]. - Over the past week, the average daily transaction volume for the BoShi ETF was 201 million yuan [3]. Group 2: Fund Flows and Leverage - The BoShi ETF has seen a net inflow of 84.66 million yuan over the last five trading days, with an average daily net inflow of 16.93 million yuan [3][4]. - Leveraged funds have been actively buying into the BoShi ETF, with a maximum single-day net purchase of 336.62 thousand yuan, bringing the latest financing balance to 866.50 thousand yuan [4]. Group 3: Performance Metrics - The BoShi ETF has achieved a net value increase of 33.06% over the past two years, ranking 86 out of 2207 index equity funds [4]. - The ETF's highest monthly return since inception was 24.18%, with an average monthly return of 4.99% during rising months [4]. - As of June 19, 2025, the ETF's Sharpe ratio for the past month was 1.40, indicating strong risk-adjusted returns [4]. Group 4: Fee Structure and Tracking Accuracy - The management fee for the BoShi ETF is 0.50%, and the custody fee is 0.10% [4]. - The tracking error for the ETF over the past six months was 0.067%, demonstrating its effectiveness in tracking the HSSCHKY index [4]. Group 5: Top Holdings - The top ten weighted stocks in the HSSCHKY index account for 27.89% of the index, with notable companies including Yanzhou Coal Mining (0.64%) and Hang Lung Properties (0.30%) [5][7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The global economy and financial markets are being significantly influenced by geopolitical tensions, central bank policies, and macroeconomic data [2][13][18] - The commodity market, especially the energy and metal sectors, is experiencing price fluctuations due to geopolitical risks and supply - demand dynamics [2][3] - The bond market shows a complex situation with different trends in yields and prices, affected by factors like credit supply - demand and central bank operations [21][26] - The stock market has seen declines in both A - shares and Hong Kong stocks, with individual stocks and sectors performing differently [29][30] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Data - GDP in Q1 2025 grew at a 5.4% year - on - year rate, unchanged from the previous quarter but up from 5.3% in the same period last year [1] - In May 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, up from 49.0% in the previous month, while the non - manufacturing PMI for business activities was 50.3%, down from 50.4% [1] - Social financing scale in May 2025 was 22871.00 billion yuan, up from 11591.00 billion yuan in the previous month [1] - CPI in May 2025 was - 0.1% year - on - year, unchanged from the previous month but down from 0.3% in the same period last year; PPI was - 3.3% year - on - year, down from - 2.7% [1] 3.2 Commodity Investment 3.2.1 Comprehensive - Trump criticized Fed Chair Powell, believing that the Fed should have cut interest rates by 2.5 percentage points, which could save billions on short - term debt [2] - Due to the tense situation in the Middle East, Brent crude futures have an implied geopolitical risk premium of about $8/barrel, which may expand if the US intervenes [2] 3.2.2 Metals - China is accelerating the review of rare - earth export license applications and has approved a certain number of compliant applications [3] - 95% of respondents expect global central banks to increase their gold reserves in the next 12 months, and UBS expects the gold price to reach about $3500/ounce by the end of this year [3] - Silver prices have risen by over 11% since June, breaking a 13 - year high, driven by industrial demand recovery [3] 3.2.3 Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - Canada will take additional tariff measures to address overcapacity and unfair trade in the steel and aluminum industries [6] - First Quantum is preparing to ship copper from its Panama mine [6] - Indonesia is strengthening its steel industry by focusing on stainless - steel production in the oil and gas field [6] 3.2.4 Energy and Chemicals - OPEC Secretary - General said that global oil demand remains resilient and will be an important part of the energy structure in the next two decades [7] - Different institutions have different forecasts for oil prices under different scenarios of Iranian oil supply disruptions [9] 3.2.5 Agricultural Products - The global cotton market may see a large - scale increase in production, which may put pressure on cotton prices when new flowers are listed in October [10] - The large - scale wheat harvest in China's "Three Summers" is basically over, with a 96% harvest progress as of June 18 [10] 3.3 Financial News 3.3.1 Open Market - On June 19, the central bank conducted 2035 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 842 billion yuan [12] 3.3.2 Key News - China's President Xi Jinping proposed four points on the Middle East situation during a call with Russia's President Putin [13] - Trump has approved an attack plan on Iran but has not issued a final order yet [13] - The central bank of some European countries cut interest rates, while the US and UK maintained their rates [18] 3.3.3 Bond Market - Bank - to - bank main interest - rate bonds' yields mostly rose, and treasury - bond futures showed a differentiated trend [21] - Exchange - traded bonds had different price movements, with some rising and some falling [21] 3.3.4 Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed down 14 points, while the central parity rate was up 32 points [25] - The US dollar index fell 0.12%, and non - US currencies showed mixed performance [25] 3.3.5 Research Report Highlights - CITIC Securities believes that the credit - bond market has a prominent performance, and short - end coupon assets are preferred [26] - Huatai Securities suggests a "high - odds + left - hand + trading - oriented" allocation strategy [27] 3.4 Stock Market - On Thursday, A - shares fell unilaterally, with over 4600 stocks declining, while oil and gas stocks and solid - state battery concepts rose [29] - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index fell 1.99%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index fell 2.42% [30] - Bubble Mart's stock price fell over 5% on June 19 due to a slump in the secondary market of its Labubu series [31]

Group 1 - The article highlights the rapid response of agricultural insurance companies in providing compensation to farmers affected by Typhoon "Butterfly," ensuring timely financial support for recovery [1][2] - Affected farmer Wan Weiping received over 200,000 yuan in insurance claims, which helped cover nearly one-third of his economic losses from the disaster [1] - The insurance assessment indicated a loss rate of 22.5% for severely damaged banana trees and 7.5% for those with minor damage, translating to approximately 40.5 acres and 13.5 acres of loss, respectively [1] Group 2 - The company has completed the damage assessment for agricultural insurance in Lingshui, with total compensation amounting to around 1 million yuan, aimed at facilitating the recovery and replanting efforts of affected farmers [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints The report comprehensively presents the overnight market trends of domestic and international futures, important macro - economic and geopolitical news, and the performance of various financial markets. It also outlines upcoming economic data releases and events, highlighting the complex and dynamic nature of the global economic and financial landscape, especially under the influence of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and central bank policies [2][3][6]. Summary by Directory Overnight Night - Market Trends - Domestic futures: PTA and PX rose over 3%, SC crude oil, fuel oil, etc. rose over 2%;沪锡,烧碱,沪银 fell over 1% [2] - International oil prices: WTI crude oil rose 0.52% to $73.88/barrel, Brent crude oil rose 2.66% to $78.74/barrel [3] - International precious metals: COMEX gold futures fell 0.61% to $3387.4/ounce, COMEX silver futures fell 1.5% to $36.36/ounce [4] - London base metals: Most fell, LME aluminum fell 0.84%, LME tin fell 0.79%, LME copper fell 0.37%, LME zinc rose 0.38% [4] Important Information Macro Information - Geopolitical events: China called for a cease - fire in the Middle East conflict; the Iranian reactor was attacked; Iran responded to US threat; Trump criticized Powell; EU may accept 10% "reciprocal" tariff; Zelensky was ready to meet Putin; Israel aimed to eliminate Khamenei [6][7][8] Energy and Chemical Futures - Inventory changes: Glass inventory rose 0.29% to 6988.7 million heavy boxes; paper pulp inventory rose 1.1% to 220.8 million tons; Singapore fuel oil inventory fell to a 5 - week low; domestic soda ash inventory rose 2.40%; East China methanol inventory fell 2.71 million tons [12][13][14] Metal Futures - Lithium carbonate auction: 300 tons each of Ronghui and Yongshan lithium carbonate were auctioned at 59910 yuan/ton and 60010 yuan/ton respectively [16] - Photovoltaic industry: Planned to cut production by 10% - 15% in Q3 and implement strict price - protection policies [18] Black - Series Futures - Silicon manganese pricing: HeSteel Group set the June silicon manganese price at 5650 yuan/ton [21] - Steel product data: Rebar production increased 2.22%, factory inventory decreased for the fourth week, social inventory decreased for the fifteenth week, and apparent demand decreased for the third week [21] Agricultural Futures - Sugar export: The number of ships waiting to load sugar in Brazilian ports decreased, and the waiting sugar volume decreased to 285.39 million tons [24] - Pig data: The average live - weight of national outer - ternary pigs decreased to 123.78 kg, a 3 - month low [25] - Canadian rapeseed: Export volume decreased 17.05% to 13.14 million tons in the week ending June 15 [25] Financial Markets Financial - A - shares and Hong Kong stocks: A - shares fell, with over 4600 stocks declining; Hong Kong stocks also fell, and Southbound funds had net purchases of HK$1427 million [27] - ESG action: The Shanghai Stock Exchange launched a special action plan to improve ESG ratings of listed companies [29] - IPO situation: There were over 160 companies queuing for IPO in Hong Kong, and 40+ filed in May [29] Industry - New energy vehicles: Three departments studied new energy vehicle safety management, emphasizing no "involution" competition [30] - Photovoltaic industry: Planned for deeper production cuts in Q3 and implemented strict price - protection policies [30] - Real estate: Guangzhou continued to purchase existing housing as resettlement housing; Xi'an introduced new housing policies [32] Overseas - US politics and economy: Trump criticized Powell; the US Senate postponed sanctions on Russia; Zelensky wanted to meet Putin; multiple central banks adjusted interest rates [33][34][36] - Trade issues: The EU tried to reach a trade deal with the US; Canada planned tariff measures [36] - Global investment: Global FDI decreased 11% in 2024, with Europe down 58%; Asia attracted $605 billion [37] International Stock Markets - US stocks: Closed on June 19 for Juneteenth [41] - European stocks: Fell due to Middle East geopolitical risks and Fed policies [41] - US retail investors: Bullish sentiment decreased, and bearish sentiment increased [41] Commodities - Crude oil: International oil prices rose, with a geopolitical risk premium of about $8/barrel in Brent crude [44] - Precious metals: International precious metals futures fell, affected by Fed policies [44] - Base metals: Most London base metals fell, influenced by supply - demand and Fed policies [45] Bonds - Domestic bonds: Yields of domestic inter - bank bonds mostly rose, and bond ETF support measures were studied [46][48] - International bonds: European bond yields rose due to geopolitical risks and market sentiment [48] Foreign Exchange - Hong Kong dollar: The Hong Kong Monetary Authority warned of potential weakening of the Hong Kong dollar [49] - RMB: The RMB's global payment share decreased in May; on - shore and off - shore RMB had different performances [50][52] - US dollar: The US dollar index fluctuated, affected by Fed policies and market sentiment [52] Upcoming Economic Data and Events - Economic data: Include UK consumer confidence, Japanese CPI, Chinese LPR, etc. [55] - Events: Include Japanese and Chinese central bank operations, speeches by central bank governors, etc. [57]

Group 1 - The price of silver futures has surpassed that of gold, with silver futures on COMEX rising over 25% year-to-date, while platinum futures on NYMEX have increased over 45% [1] - The Ministry of Commerce of China is expediting the review of rare earth export license applications and has approved a certain number of compliant applications [1] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other departments are focusing on the safety management of new energy vehicles, urging manufacturers to guide consumers in proper vehicle usage and avoid exaggerated claims [1] Group 2 - The Beijing Municipal Committee has issued support measures for the high-quality development of the gaming and esports industry, offering rewards up to 30 million yuan for eligible projects [2] - The Hong Kong Stock Exchange has over 160 companies queued for IPOs, with more than 40 applications submitted in May alone [2] - The A-share market experienced a decline, with over 4,600 stocks falling, while the Shanghai Composite Index closed down 0.79% at 3,362.11 points [2] Group 3 - Morgan Stanley has updated its focus stock list for Hong Kong and Chinese concept stocks, removing Pop Mart and adding China Pacific Insurance [3] - Yushutech has completed a Series C financing round with a pre-investment valuation exceeding 10 billion yuan [3] - Guosen Securities' acquisition of 96.08% of Wanhe Securities has been approved by the Shenzhen Stock Exchange's merger and reorganization review committee [3] Group 4 - Zhongyan Chemical plans to approve a capital reduction for its subsidiary, which is expected to constitute a major asset restructuring [4] - Keda New Materials intends to acquire at least 51% of Zhongke Huami's equity to expand into the semiconductor integrated circuit field [5] - CloudWalk Technology's multi-modal AI technology can be applied to stablecoin wallet scenarios [6] Group 5 - Saint Noble Bio expects a net profit of 77.03 million to 94.14 million yuan for the first half of the year, representing a year-on-year increase of 253.54% to 332.10% due to strong performance in its peptide raw material business [6] - Haitian Flavoring has successfully listed its H-shares on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [6]