Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the aviation sector, recommending a focus on specific airlines such as Air China, Spring Airlines, China Eastern Airlines, and others [77]. Core Insights - Domestic flight schedules have decreased by 4% compared to 2024, but show a 22% increase compared to 2019, indicating a further easing of domestic supply [7][8]. - International flight schedules are steadily recovering, with plans to restore to 81% of 2019 levels, while flights to Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan have slightly decreased [7][8]. - The overall daily flight schedule for domestic airlines is projected at 17,500 flights, a 21% increase from 2019 [7][8]. Summary by Sections Domestic Market Overview - Domestic flight schedules for the summer-autumn season of 2025 are expected to average 16,100 flights per day, down 4% from 2024 but up 22% from 2019 [11][12]. - The total daily coordinated flight schedules are projected at 8,041 flights, a 21% increase from 2019 [11][12]. - The domestic airlines plan to operate 6,866 domestic routes during the summer-autumn season of 2025 [11]. International Market Overview - The average daily international and regional flights are set at 2,487, recovering to 81% of 2019 levels [51][62]. - Specific regional recovery rates include 78% for Australia, 26% for North America, and 84% for Southeast Asia [51][62]. Investment Analysis - The report suggests that external factors such as oil prices and currency exchange rates are improving, which could enhance airline profitability as domestic demand recovers [7][76]. - The report recommends continued attention to the aviation sector, highlighting the potential for revenue growth if ticket prices rebound [76]. Airline Performance - Major airlines like China Southern Airlines, China Eastern Airlines, and Air China maintain stable market shares, with slight variations in flight schedules compared to previous years [11][12]. - The report provides detailed statistics on individual airline performance, showing changes in flight schedules and market shares [16][17].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the transportation industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector's fundamentals and expected performance relative to the benchmark index [4]. Core Insights - The shipping sector is experiencing a significant recovery in dry bulk freight rates, with increased demand for iron ore and coal, while oil shipping is seeing a rise in geopolitical risk premiums due to ongoing sanctions [8][12][14]. - Infrastructure assets remain attractive for investment, particularly in the context of a long-term interest rate decline, with H-shares offering a dividend yield above 6% [16]. - The express delivery industry is projected to maintain double-digit growth in volume, driven by increasing online shopping frequency and the rise of live-streaming e-commerce platforms [18]. - The airline industry is in a post-pandemic recovery phase, with demand expected to grow due to economic stimulus policies, while supply remains constrained due to global supply chain issues [20]. Shipping Sector Summary - Dry bulk freight rates are on the rise, with the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) increasing by 19.2% this week, driven by higher demand for iron ore and coal [29]. - Oil shipping rates are also improving, with VLCC rates reaching $39,000 per day, up 3% this week [31]. - The container shipping market is seeing a decline in rates, with SCFI indices dropping significantly across major routes [23]. Infrastructure Sector Summary - Road passenger traffic in November 2024 was 990 million, a year-on-year increase of 1.8%, while rail passenger turnover increased by 17.6% in January 2025 [15][33]. - The report highlights the potential for improved performance in the infrastructure sector as domestic demand stabilizes [16]. Express Delivery Sector Summary - The express delivery volume for January-February 2025 reached 28.48 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of 22.4%, with revenue growing by 11.2% [17][36]. - The concentration index (CR8) for the express delivery market is at 87.1, indicating a stable competitive landscape [17]. Airline Sector Summary - Domestic air ticket prices have decreased by 4% week-on-week, while passenger volume has increased by 3% [19][42]. - The airline industry is expected to see a recovery in profitability as supply-demand dynamics improve in 2025-2026 [20]. Logistics Sector Summary - Cross-border air freight prices have decreased by 2.1% week-on-week, while the average short-haul freight rate remains stable at approximately 60 yuan per ton [21][48]. - The logistics sector is closely monitoring the impact of U.S.-China tariff policies on the supply chain [21].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating to the aviation industry, indicating an expectation for the industry to outperform the overall market [1]. Core Insights - The Civil Aviation Administration of China released the summer-autumn flight schedule for 2025, showing a 3.3% year-on-year decrease in overall domestic flight slots compared to 2024, while international flight slots increased by 5% [1]. - The domestic flight slots for the summer season of 2025 are projected to average 16,100 flights per day, a 4% decrease from 2024, marking the first decline in domestic slots since the pandemic [1]. - Major airline groups are reducing more domestic slots, particularly on mid- to low-tier routes, with Sichuan Airlines seeing a 9% decline in domestic slots [1]. - International flight slots are steadily recovering, with an average of 2,487 flights per day, reaching 81% of the levels seen in 2019 [1]. - The report suggests that external factors such as oil prices and exchange rates are improving, and domestic demand is expected to recover, which could lead to a cyclical upturn in the aviation market [1]. Summary by Sections Domestic Flight Schedule - The summer-autumn 2025 domestic flight schedule shows a total of 6,866 domestic routes planned, with major airline groups maintaining stable market shares [1]. - The average daily coordinated slots are projected at 8,041, a 2% decrease from 2024 but a 21% increase from 2019 [1]. International Flight Recovery - International flight slots are recovering to 85% of 2019 levels, with specific regions like Australia and North America showing varied recovery rates [1]. - Domestic airlines are leading in recovery rates compared to international airlines, with domestic slots recovering to 85% of 2019 levels [1]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on the aviation sector due to strong supply logic and elastic demand, suggesting potential for significant performance improvement for airlines [1]. - Specific airlines recommended for investment include China National Aviation, Spring Airlines, and China Eastern Airlines, among others [2].

Investment Rating - The industry is recommended for investment, with a positive outlook on airline performance due to improving supply-demand dynamics [5]. Core Insights - Domestic passenger flight volume has decreased, while international flight volume has increased year-on-year. Domestic airlines' passenger flight volume is 122,632 flights per week, down 3.4% year-on-year, but up 18.1% compared to 2019. Domestic, international, and regional flight volumes are 112,222, 8,932, and 1,478 flights per week, with year-on-year changes of -3.9%, +6.1%, and -16.8% respectively [2][3]. - Airlines may shift some domestic capacity to international markets to address rising international demand, alleviating pressure on domestic supply. Since late 2023, China has announced visa-free policies for several countries, leading to a recovery in international flight volumes, which have reached 81% of 2019 levels [2]. - Various airlines plan to reduce flight volumes, except for Huaxia Airlines, which anticipates an 11.3% year-on-year increase in flight volume. For the summer and autumn season of 2025, China National Airlines will operate 25,313 flights per week (-2.4% year-on-year), China Eastern Airlines 23,041 flights (-3.1%), and Southern Airlines 25,786 flights (-4.6%) [3]. - Shanghai Airport's passenger flight volume remains stable, with Pudong Airport showing a slight increase of 0.1% year-on-year. International flight slots at Pudong Airport have increased by 7.8% year-on-year, indicating a faster recovery compared to other major airports [4]. Summary by Sections Flight Volume Trends - Domestic airlines' passenger flight volume is 122,632 flights per week, down 3.4% year-on-year, while international flights have increased by 6.1% [2]. - Huaxia Airlines is expected to see a significant increase in flight volume, with a year-on-year growth of 11.3% [3]. Airport Performance - Pudong Airport's international flight slots have increased by 7.8% year-on-year, while overall flight volumes at major airports show mixed results [4]. Investment Recommendations - The industry is expected to see a supply-demand improvement, with a projected annual growth rate of around 3% for supply and high single-digit growth for demand. A 1% increase in ticket prices could yield over 1 billion yuan in profit for major airlines [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the transportation industry, particularly highlighting the potential benefits from the upcoming U.S. shipping legislation hearing on March 24, 2025 [4][23]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of the U.S. shipping legislation and its potential impact on the shipping and logistics sectors, particularly for companies like 德翔海运 (Dexion Shipping) [4][23]. - The report identifies AI-driven logistics as a key factor in reducing logistics costs, with companies like 圆通速递 (YTO Express) expected to benefit significantly from digital transformation initiatives [6][23]. - The report notes a mixed performance across sub-sectors, with the express delivery sector showing the highest growth, while the airline sector faced declines [7][14]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The transportation index increased by 1.07%, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.52 percentage points [7]. - The express delivery sector saw a significant increase of 3.62%, while the airline transportation sector experienced a decline of 1.81% [7][14]. Shipping and Logistics - The report highlights the volatility in shipping rates, with the VLCC (Very Large Crude Carrier) rates rising by 3% to $35,202 per day, while the Suezmax rates increased by 24% to $51,524 per day [25][24]. - The SCFI (Shanghai Containerized Freight Index) recorded a drop of 8.1%, indicating pressure on container shipping rates [27][39]. Air Transportation - The report suggests that external factors such as oil prices and domestic demand recovery are likely to enhance the airline sector's performance, with a focus on the potential for increased passenger volumes [44]. High Dividend Stocks - The report lists high dividend yield stocks in the transportation sector, including 渤海轮渡 (Bohai Ferry) with a yield of 12.07% and 大秦铁路 (Daqin Railway) with a yield of 7.07% [19][21]. Recommendations - The report recommends关注 (focus on) companies like 中国动力 (China Power), 中国船舶 (China Shipbuilding), and 招商轮船 (China Merchants Energy) for potential investment opportunities [24][23].

国内客班航班量回落，国际航班量同比提升。按起降一次计为 1 班，国内航司客运航班量为 122632 班/周，同比-3.4%， 较 2019 年+18.1%，其中国内线、国际线、地区线客运航班量分别为 112222 班/周、8932 班/周和 1478 班/周，同比分 别-3.9%、+6.1%、-16.8%，较 2019 年分别+23.6%、-21.4%、-12%。整体航班量同比回落主要受国内航班量下降影响， 航司或将部分国内线运力投放到国际市场，以应对国际线需求提升，国内线供给压力有望减轻。自 2023 年底以来， 我国陆续宣布对多个国家实行单方面或者双边免签政策，国际航班量持续恢复，过去一周国际地区航班量已恢复至 2019 年 81%。 多家航司计划航班量回落，华夏航空计划航班量同比增长。分航司看，2025 年夏秋航季中国国航（中国国航、深圳 航空、昆明航空、山东航空）为 25313 班/周，同比-2.4%；中国东航（东方航空、上海航空、中联航）为 23041 班/ 周，同比-3.1%；南方航空（南方航空、厦门航空、重庆航空、贵州航空）为 25786 班/周，同比-4.6%；春秋航空客 运航班量为 4025 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended (Maintain)" [1] Core Insights - The report highlights that the recent decline in oil prices is expected to elevate the profit margins for the aviation sector, with Brent oil prices dropping below $70 per barrel and WTI prices below $67 per barrel [8] - The report suggests that if oil prices remain low, it could lead to cost savings of approximately 4-5 billion yuan for major airlines, equivalent to a ticket price reduction of about 3%-4% [8] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring supply-demand dynamics and macroeconomic conditions to ensure that the benefits of lower oil prices translate into profits for the airlines [13] Summary by Sections Weekly Focus - The focus of the week is on the accelerated decline in oil prices, which is expected to enhance the profit margins for the aviation industry [6] Industry Data Tracking (2025.03.02 - 03.08) Aviation High-Frequency Data Tracking - Domestic flight volume for the period was 81,367 flights, with a daily average of 11,624 flights, down 10.07% week-on-week and 7.47% year-on-year [10] - Domestic passenger volume reached 11.0615 million, down 12.05% week-on-week and 4.17% year-on-year [11] - The average full ticket price decreased by 4.76% week-on-week and 3.39% year-on-year [11] - The domestic passenger load factor was 83.18%, an increase of 3.73 percentage points year-on-year [12] - International passenger volume reached 1.315 million, down 5.27% week-on-week but up 26.01% year-on-year [14] Express Delivery High-Frequency Data Tracking - For the week of February 24 to March 2, the average daily express delivery volume was approximately 534 million pieces, with a delivery volume of about 541 million pieces, showing a slight decrease of 0.56% and an increase of 0.05% respectively compared to the previous week [19] - Year-to-date (January 1 to March 2), the average daily express delivery volume was approximately 488 million pieces, up 37.41% year-on-year [20] Shipping High-Frequency Data Tracking - The BDI index for the international dry bulk market was 1,263 points, up 17% week-on-week [51] - The CCFI index for the international container shipping market decreased by 3% week-on-week, while the SCFI index fell by 5% [51] - The VLCC-TCE rate for oil shipping was $39,359 per day, down 1% week-on-week [52] Recent Key Reports - The report includes a recommended investment portfolio consisting of companies such as COSCO Shipping Energy, Shandong Hi-Speed, and China Eastern Airlines, among others [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the transportation sector [6] Core Views - The report emphasizes the improvement in supply and demand for aviation and oil transportation, suggesting a favorable outlook for ticket prices and freight rates [1][2][3] - It recommends focusing on alpha stocks with competitive advantages and high dividend yields, particularly in the aviation and oil transportation sectors [1] - The report highlights the need to monitor policy changes and economic data that may influence risk appetite in the transportation sector [4] Aviation Sector - The report notes a steady increase in passenger volume during the Spring Festival, with a year-on-year growth of 7.4%, slightly above the overall inter-regional mobility growth of 7.1% [2][13] - It anticipates that ticket prices will gradually improve due to a low base effect, with expectations for a positive year-on-year change in ticket prices as supply growth slows [16][18] - The report identifies key stocks to watch, including China National Aviation and China Eastern Airlines, which are expected to benefit from supply-demand improvements [22] Shipping and Port Sector - The report indicates that oil transportation rates are expected to rise due to geopolitical events and a rebound in demand after the holiday season [3][34] - It forecasts a potential increase in container shipping rates in March, driven by seasonal demand recovery and price hikes on European routes [35] - The report suggests monitoring the impact of geopolitical events and U.S. tariff policies on shipping rates and demand [34][60] Road and Rail Sector - The report highlights significant improvements in highway freight traffic, with a year-on-year increase of 6.4% in early 2025 [4] - It notes a slowdown in railway passenger growth and coal transport due to high inventory levels, indicating a need for careful observation in the coming months [4][5] Logistics and Express Delivery Sector - The report states that express delivery volumes have exceeded expectations, with year-on-year growth rates of 39% for collection and 42% for delivery [5][55] - It recommends focusing on leading express delivery companies, such as SF Express, which are expected to benefit from foreign investment in China [58] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring cross-border logistics and the impact of U.S. tariff policies on e-commerce volumes [60]

Core Viewpoint - Major blue-chip companies are releasing positive news, indicating potential investment opportunities in the Chinese market, particularly through share buybacks and significant contracts [2][3][8]. Group 1: Share Buybacks and Increases - Gree Electric announced that its major shareholder, Jinghai Internet Technology, plans to increase its stake in the company by investing between RMB 10.5 billion and RMB 21 billion over the next six months [2][5]. - Hikvision reported a share buyback of 35.1 million shares, representing 0.38% of its total share capital, with a total buyback amount of RMB 1.068 billion [5]. - China Merchants Energy announced a buyback of 38.2 million shares, accounting for 0.47% of its total share capital, with a total buyback amount of RMB 251 million [6]. Group 2: Major Contracts Announced - China Shipbuilding announced a significant contract for the construction of 18,000 TEU LNG dual-fuel container ships, valued between RMB 18 billion and RMB 19 billion, with delivery scheduled for 2028 and 2029 [3][8]. - The contract is expected to enhance the company's long-term market competitiveness and profitability, aligning with international green energy design standards [8]. - Additionally, a framework supply agreement was signed between Dangsheng Technology and SK On for the supply of lithium battery cathode materials, expected to positively impact the company's performance from 2025 to 2027 [9]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Valuation - UBS maintains an overweight position on China, suggesting that the Chinese market should trade at a 15% premium compared to other emerging markets, despite currently being at a 30% discount [3][11]. - The firm highlights that the resilience of capital inflows into the Chinese market could mitigate risks associated with trade conflicts [11]. - The overall sentiment indicates that despite potential trade tensions, the Chinese stock market remains attractive for further investment [11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the aviation industry [8] Core Insights - The aviation industry is expected to benefit from a recovery in demand and tightening supply, leading to improved pricing and profitability. The report highlights that most companies are currently valued in the top 20% historical percentile, indicating strong investment appeal [2][7] - The report recommends A-share private airlines (Jixiang, Spring Airlines, and Huaxia) and the three major Hong Kong airlines, with a particular focus on the three major A-share airlines if PMI indicators show significant reversal [2][7] Demand Trends - The 2025 Spring Festival travel season shows a shift from explosive demand to moderate growth, with domestic passenger volume increasing by 5% compared to 2024, and international passenger volume rising by 33% [4][15] - The report identifies three key demand trends: active return home travel, a surge in tourism, and delayed resumption of work. The return home travel demand is particularly strong due to the early start of the Spring Festival travel season [5][29] - The average tourism spending during the Spring Festival is reported to have recovered to 109% of the 2019 level, indicating a strong recovery in consumer spending [5][36] Supply Changes - The report notes that the supply of aircraft is tightening, with a significant number of A320NEO aircraft grounded due to engine issues, which further constrains capacity. The grounded aircraft represent about 2.6% of the total industry capacity [6][58] - The aircraft utilization rate has returned to pre-pandemic levels, with narrow-body aircraft utilization exceeding 104% of 2019 levels during the Spring Festival travel season [6][52] - Future supply growth is expected to remain low, with projections indicating a supply growth rate of only 2.3% in 2025 and 1.5% in 2026, leading to a favorable supply-demand balance [6][69] Outlook for 2025 - The report anticipates that the aviation industry's odds will become increasingly attractive due to a combination of recovering demand, tightening supply, and improving cost structures. The industry is poised for a cyclical rebound [2][7] - The report emphasizes that the industry is accumulating upward momentum, suggesting a potential reversal in the current cycle [2][7]