新华财经北京1月21日电（林玉莲 王文嫣）受寒潮影响，我国中东部地区正迎来今冬最冷的一周。面对 寒潮，记者从多家煤炭、电力、油气企业了解到，相关企业已密集部署投产保供工作，打出能源保供 的"组合拳"。 另有煤电企业人士对记者表示，随着新能源比例逐步增加，煤电机组除了发电，越来越多地承担电力兜 底调节作用。 多地用电负荷快速上升 能源供应安全稳定 新一轮寒潮带来大范围降温，多地用电负荷快速上升。 1月19日，江苏电网最高用电负荷达1.28亿千瓦，较前一日激增近2000万千瓦，增长18.5%。据国网江苏 省电力公司预测，今冬全省最高用电负荷预计将达1.38亿千瓦。 国网山东省电力公司透露，1月18日11时20分、1月19日11时25分，山东电网负荷分别达到1.1109亿千瓦 和1.15995亿千瓦，连续两天创冬季用电负荷历史新高。 受降雪降温天气影响，河北电网用电负荷也持续攀升。1月18日11时25分，河北电网最大负荷达到 5229.4万千瓦，创冬季历史新高。 为了保障电力供应充足稳定，电网公司加大对电网设施的巡检力度，加强抢修保障。可视化巡查和智能 运维也在保供工作中发挥了关键作用。 作为服务上海2400多万市 ...

Group 1: Energy Supply and Demand - A new cold wave has led to a significant increase in electricity load across multiple regions, with Jiangsu's peak load reaching 128 million kilowatts, an increase of 18.5% from the previous day [2] - Shandong's electricity load set a winter record, reaching 111.09 million kilowatts and 115.995 million kilowatts on consecutive days [2] - Hebei's maximum load also hit a winter high of 52.294 million kilowatts due to adverse weather conditions [2] Group 2: Energy Supply Measures - Energy companies are intensifying efforts to ensure stable power supply, including enhanced inspections and maintenance of grid facilities [2] - Shenergy Group has updated over 2400 kilometers of aging gas pipelines in Shanghai to ensure reliable gas supply [3] - The Zhejiang Anji Power Plant, with a total capacity of 1686 megawatts and an efficiency of 64.15%, has commenced full operation to support winter electricity demand [3] Group 3: Fuel Production and Supply - In December 2025, China's industrial raw coal production reached 4.83 billion tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.2%, indicating a relatively loose supply-demand relationship [4] - Major coal companies are ramping up coal production and transportation to ensure supply [4] Group 4: Natural Gas Supply - The natural gas demand for the current heating season is projected to be between 206.1 billion and 210.1 billion cubic meters, a year-on-year increase of 3.2% to 5.2% [5] - China Petroleum's Longqing Oilfield is supplying over 16 million cubic meters of natural gas daily to meet demand in over 50 cities [6] - Intelligent monitoring systems are being utilized to enhance the safety and efficiency of gas supply during extreme weather conditions [6]

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights that Huabei Mining's subsidiary, Tongling Leiming Shuangshi Chemical Co., Ltd., has received preliminary approval for an environmental impact assessment for a project aimed at increasing the annual production capacity of gel emulsified explosives from 11,000 tons to 13,000 tons, incorporating automation and eliminating the need for fixed operators [2] - The total investment for this project is reported to be 7 million yuan [2] - The approval information was disclosed by relevant regulatory authorities on January 4, 2026 [2]

Group 1: Company Overview - The company specializes in the research, production, and sales of hydraulic pipeline systems, with key products including hard pipe assemblies, soft pipe assemblies, fire extinguishing systems, pipe joints, and oil tanks [3] - Hydraulic pipelines are essential components in various machinery manufacturing sectors, including construction, mining, port, agricultural, logistics, metallurgy, and wind power equipment, as well as emerging fields like new energy vehicles and semiconductor equipment [3][4] - The company has established a strong customer base, including industry leaders such as SANY, Zoomlion, Jiangxi Copper, State Power, and Schwing [3] Group 2: Market Segmentation - The company's product applications are divided into two main markets: the front-mounted market and the post-mining maintenance market [3] - The front-mounted market includes clients like SANY and Zoomlion, with a steady recovery in the construction machinery market and accelerated overseas exports [4] - The post-mining maintenance market benefits from the company's first-mover advantage and a commitment to 24-hour close service, with established service points in major domestic mines [4] Group 3: Future Development Plans - The company aims to focus on two major markets: the front-mounted market and the post-mining maintenance market, with plans to explore sectors like metallurgy and shipbuilding, as well as new areas such as new energy vehicle pipeline systems and liquid cooling [5] - The international mining market is a key focus, with the company expanding its overseas service points in countries like Suriname, Serbia, Mongolia, and Namibia [5][7] Group 4: Mining Maintenance Business - The company has over 20 years of experience in the post-mining maintenance market, establishing stable partnerships with companies like Jiangxi Copper, State Power, and China Coal [6] - Continuous growth in fixed asset investment in the mining industry has led to an increasing demand for maintenance and repair services, providing a solid foundation for the post-mining market [6] Group 5: International Business Expansion - Since the end of 2024, the company has partnered with large mining enterprises like Zijin Mining and China General Nuclear Power, establishing overseas subsidiaries for maintenance services [7] - The number of overseas service points is continuously increasing, contributing to the gradual growth of the business scale [7] Group 6: AI Liquid Cooling Development - The company has developed products for the liquid cooling market, leveraging its existing pipeline system advantages in cleanliness, sealing, and pressure resistance [7] - The demand for pipeline systems in the liquid cooling market is expected to grow with the acceleration of data center construction [7]

Group 1 - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.29% and the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.09%, while the ChiNext Index fell by 0.70% on January 19 [2] - Sectors such as precious metals, power grid equipment, and flexible direct current transmission saw significant gains [2] - The National Energy Administration announced that by 2025, China's total electricity consumption is expected to exceed 10 trillion kilowatt-hours, reaching 10.4 trillion kilowatt-hours, a year-on-year increase of 5% [2] Group 2 - Oriental Securities highlighted the zinc sector as an overlooked material in the context of de-globalization, with supply and demand improving and prices expected to rise [3] - The market has been pessimistic about lead and zinc due to domestic infrastructure and real estate concerns, but there is optimism regarding the re-industrialization in Asia, Africa, and Latin America driving demand [3] - Huafu Securities noted that key technologies for small modular reactors (SMR) are being developed by domestic companies, with progress on energy solutions tailored for data centers [3]

Group 1 - The coal mining sector saw a slight increase of 0.33% on January 19, with Xinda Zhou A leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4114.0, up 0.29%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14294.05, up 0.09% [1] - Key stocks in the coal mining sector showed varied performance, with Xinda Zhou A closing at 6.48, up 7.11%, and Jiangte Equipment at 10.08, up 7.01% [1] Group 2 - Major coal companies like China Shenhua and Shaanxi Coal experienced slight declines, with China Shenhua closing at 40.70, down 0.73% [2] - The coal mining sector experienced a net inflow of 1.03 billion yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 773.97 million yuan [2][3] - The top net inflows from institutional investors were led by Shaanxi Coal with 80.36 million yuan, while retail investors showed significant outflows in several stocks [3]

证券研究报告 | 行业研究简报 gszqdatemark 2026 01 18 年 月 日 煤炭开采 2025 全球海运煤炭：贸易量减分化，欧盟进口持续收缩 本周全球能源价格回顾。截至 2026 年 1 月 16 日，原油价格方面，布伦 特原油期货结算价为 64.13 美元/桶，较上周上涨 0.79 美元/桶（+1.25%）； WTI 原油期货结算价为 59.44 美元/桶，较上周上涨 0.32 美元/桶 （+0.54%）。天然气价格方面，东北亚 LNG 现货到岸价为 11.35 美元/百 万英热，较上周上涨 1.71 美元/百万英热（+17.72%）；荷兰 TTF 天然气 期货结算价 37.2 欧元/兆瓦时，较上周上涨 8.78 欧元/兆瓦时（+30.87%）； 美国 HH 天然气期货结算价为 3.11 美元/百万英热，较上周下降 0.06 美元 /百万英热（-1.89%）。煤炭价格方面，欧洲 ARA 港口煤炭（6000K）到 岸价 96.7 美元/吨，较上周上涨 0.2 美元/吨（+0.2%）；纽卡斯尔港口煤 炭（6000K）FOB 价 111.6 美元/吨，较上周上涨 4.3 美元/吨（+4.0%）； ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that coal prices are returning to reasonable levels, with a slight decline in thermal coal prices, and an expectation for gradual recovery to around 750 RMB/ton [1][2] - As of January 17, the Qinhuangdao Q5500 thermal coal price is 695 RMB/ton, down 4 RMB/ton from the previous period, having previously reached the estimated target price range of 800-860 RMB/ton [1][2] - The report highlights that the recent price drop is attributed to a combination of supply tightening due to regulatory actions and increased demand driven by seasonal heating needs [2][3] Group 2 - The investment logic suggests that both thermal and coking coal prices have reached a turning point, with thermal coal prices expected to undergo a recovery process influenced by policy adjustments and market dynamics [3] - The report outlines a four-step process for thermal coal price recovery, including the restoration of long-term contracts and achieving a balance in profitability between coal and power companies [3] - Coking coal prices are more influenced by market supply and demand fundamentals, with target prices linked to the price ratio between coking and thermal coal [3] Group 3 - The investment recommendation emphasizes a dual logic of cyclical recovery and stable dividends, suggesting that coal stocks are positioned for upward price movement due to low historical price levels and improving supply-demand fundamentals [4] - The report identifies four main investment lines in coal stocks, focusing on cyclical logic, dividend potential, diversified aluminum exposure, and growth logic [4] - Specific coal companies are highlighted as beneficiaries of these trends, including Jin控煤业, 兖矿能源, 中国神华, and others [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coal industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report emphasizes that coal prices are returning to reasonable levels, reinforcing the logic of stable coal prices. The price of thermal coal has slightly decreased, with the Qinhuangdao Q5500 thermal coal closing at 695 CNY/ton as of January 17, down 4 CNY/ton from the previous period. The report anticipates a gradual recovery to a reasonable price of 750 CNY/ton, with narrow fluctuations expected [3][4] - The long-term investment logic remains unchanged, driven by a dual influence of tightening supply and increasing demand. Supply constraints are a continuation of the strict production checks initiated in July, while demand is rising due to the heating season and increased industrial production [3][4] Summary by Sections Investment Logic - Thermal coal prices are expected to rise through a four-step process: repairing central and local long-term contracts, reaching the coal-electricity profit-sharing line, and approaching the breakeven point for power plants, estimated at around 750 CNY/ton for 2025. The upper limit for coal prices is predicted to be between 800-860 CNY/ton [4][15] - Coking coal prices are more influenced by supply and demand fundamentals, with target prices based on the ratio of coking coal to thermal coal prices. The current ratio indicates target prices for coking coal at 1608 CNY, 1680 CNY, 1800 CNY, and 2064 CNY [4][15] Investment Recommendations - The report outlines a dual logic for coal stocks: cyclical elasticity and stable dividends. With both thermal and coking coal prices at historical lows, there is significant room for rebound. The report identifies four main lines for stock selection: 1. Cyclical logic: Jin控煤业, 兖矿能源 for thermal coal; 平煤股份, 淮北矿业, 潞安环能 for metallurgical coal 2. Dividend logic: 中国神华, 中煤能源, 陕西煤业 3. Diversified aluminum elasticity: 神火股份, 电投能源 4. Growth logic: 新集能源, 广汇能源 [5][16] Key Market Indicators - The coal index fell by 3.11% this week, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.54 percentage points. The average PE ratio for the coal sector is 15.12, and the PB ratio is 1.33, both ranking among the lowest in the A-share market [10][25][29]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several coal companies, including China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, and Xinji Energy, among others [9]. Core Insights - The coal market is experiencing a potential turning point driven by AI reshaping demand in the U.S. and supply constraints from Indonesia [2][3]. - The report highlights the importance of monitoring "black swan" events that could significantly impact coal prices, particularly changes in domestic policies and increased demand from the U.S. [3]. - The report indicates that the coal market lacks imagination under current fundamentals but could see price increases if unexpected events occur [3]. Market Overview - The CITIC Coal Index was reported at 3690.69 points, down 3.34%, underperforming the CSI 300 Index by 2.77 percentage points [4][74]. - As of January 16, 2026, the price of thermal coal at North Port was 704 RMB/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 3 RMB/ton [30]. Key Areas of Analysis - **Thermal Coal**: Daily consumption remains strong, and pre-holiday production cuts are expected, suggesting a continued upward trend in coal prices [15]. - **Coking Coal**: Increased purchasing by steel companies is driving coking coal prices higher, with significant price increases noted in various coal types [35][48]. - **Market Sentiment**: The sentiment in the coal market is mixed, with some participants optimistic about future demand due to weather changes and others concerned about weak terminal demand [32]. Company Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with strong fundamentals, such as China Shenhua, Yancoal, and others, which are expected to perform well in the upcoming periods [11][10]. - Companies like Keda Control and China Qinfa are highlighted for their potential recovery and growth prospects [11]. Price Trends - Coking coal prices have seen significant increases, with low-sulfur coking coal prices rising by 100 RMB/ton week-on-week [35]. - The report notes that the average profit per ton of coking coal has decreased, indicating pressure on margins for some producers [72]. Inventory and Supply Dynamics - As of January 16, 2026, the inventory of thermal coal at major ports was reported at 6440 million tons, showing a week-on-week decrease of 6 million tons [16]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring inventory levels and production rates, particularly as the Chinese New Year approaches, which typically affects supply [15]. Conclusion - The coal industry is at a critical juncture, with potential for price increases driven by demand shifts and supply constraints. Investors are advised to focus on companies with strong market positions and growth potential in this evolving landscape [3][11].