数据显示，截至2026年1月30日，中证全指证券公司指数前十大权重股分别为东方财富、中信证券、国 泰海通、华泰证券、广发证券、招商证券、东方证券、兴业证券、申万宏源、中金公司，前十大权重股 合计占比60.66%。 2026年2月4日午后，证券行业红盘震荡，截至13:09，中证全指证券公司指数上涨0.30%，成分股华林证 券上涨3.20%，国泰海通上涨1.64%，东吴证券上涨1.52%，华泰证券上涨1.06%，国信证券上涨0.90%。 数据显示，多家头部券商2025年业绩大幅预喜，中信证券全年归母净利润同比增长38.46%，国泰海通 预计同比增长111%至115%，国联民生更达406%。中航证券指出，在监管明确鼓励整合背景下，并购已 成为券商实现高质量发展的有效路径，有望进一步强化头部优势。 中邮证券分析认为，券商板块驱动逻辑高度一致：权益市场回暖带动交投活跃度提升，日均股基成交额 达3.7万亿元、两融余额稳守2.74万亿元高位；叠加资本市场改革深化政策红利释放，共同支撑经纪与自 营业务双轮增长。尽管板块短期跑输大盘，但当前估值显著滞后于盈利修复节奏，基本面与估值错配特 征突出。 证券ETF嘉实(562870) ...

智通财经APP获悉，东吴证券发布研报称，2025年日均股基交易额1.98万亿元，同比增长67%。IPO、 再融资双双触底回升，集中度进一步提升;债券发行规模稳中有增。权益市场持续上行，债券市场表现 较弱。该行预计2025年上市券商净利润同比+50%，第四季度净利润同比+16%，环比下滑26%。目前券 商股估值较低，考虑到行业发展政策积极，该行认为大型券商优势仍显著。 东吴证券主要观点如下： 2025年权益市场表现亮眼，交投活跃度大幅回升 5)债券发行规模稳中有增。2025年，券商参与的债券发行规模为16.0万亿元，同比增长13%。其中企业 债发行规模下滑60%，短融中票规模下滑9%，公司债、金融债券和ABS分别同比增长13%、24%和 19%。 6)权益市场表现亮眼，债券市场表现较弱。2025年，沪深300指数上涨17.66%，创业板指上涨49.57%， 上证综指上涨18.41%，万得全A指数上涨27.65%，中债总全价指数2025年下跌2.32%。 7)权益类公募基金发行回暖。2025年股票+混合类公募基金发行规模同比+83%至5859亿份，以指数型及 指数增强型为主;债券型基金发行规模同比-42%至481 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index experienced volatility, initially rising over 300 points before dropping due to concerns over potential increases in value-added tax for technology stocks, ultimately closing up 59 points or 0.22% at 26,834 points [3][4] - The total market turnover for the day was 335.15 billion [3] Group 2: Technology Sector Concerns - Concerns arose regarding the increase in value-added tax for telecommunications services, leading to significant declines in major tech stocks such as Tencent, which fell 2.9% to 581 HKD, and Kuaishou, which dropped 4.6% to 73.45 HKD [4][9] - The adjustment of the value-added tax rate from 6% to 9% for telecommunications services has raised fears that similar increases may affect other sectors, particularly internet value-added services [9] Group 3: Gold Market Analysis - Citi's report indicates that gold prices are expected to decline, with a potential drop to 3,000 USD per ounce in a bear market scenario, while the baseline scenario predicts a decrease to 4,000 USD by 2027 [7][8] - Current gold prices have reached extreme levels, with the annual expenditure on gold as a percentage of GDP rising to 0.7%, the highest in 55 years, indicating a disconnection from the mining industry's marginal production costs [7] Group 4: Company News - Gilead Sciences announced a placement of 69.256 million new shares at a price of 12.18 HKD per share, raising approximately 844 million HKD, with 90% of the proceeds allocated for clinical trials of a new obesity treatment [11] - Cloud Wisdom plans to issue 1.008 million new H shares at a price of 310 HKD per share, raising approximately 312 million HKD, with proceeds aimed at enhancing its core technology capabilities [12] - Huatai Securities intends to issue 10 billion HKD in zero-coupon convertible bonds to support overseas business development and operational funding [14]

申万宏源：春季行情结束后，新的上涨阶段开启前，大概率会有休整阶段 申万宏源表示，春季行情结束后，新的上涨阶段开启前，大概率会有休整阶段。这个阶段核心是等待产 业趋势下阶段线索清晰，等待业绩消化估值和缓和性价比和筹码结构矛盾。2026年下半年还有新的上行 阶段，核心逻辑是基本面周期性改善+科技产业趋势新阶段+居民资产配置向权益迁移+中国影响力提升 显性化等多种积极因素共振。2025年强结构行情是周期Alpha和AI算力领涨的行情，第二阶段的上涨， 周期Alpha仍有机会，顺周期投资的延伸可能是先进制造和出海链困境反转。而AI产业链行情可能逐步 向应用端过渡。所以，中长期仍看好景气科技和周期Alpha。景气科技关注海外算力链、AI应用(AI应用 产业趋势兑现阶段，港股互联网可能重新成为领涨方向，港股好于A股的特征也可能回归)、半导体、 储能、机器人、商业航天等。周期Alpha关注有色金属和基础化工。 东方证券：外围流动性持续衰减势头企稳，但地缘变数仍在，影响国内投资情绪 东方证券表示，短期来看，外围流动性持续衰减势头暂时企稳，但地缘变数仍在，影响国内市场投资情 绪;考虑到长假将至，主动做多动能有所不足，市场可能会 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the strong performance expectations for listed securities firms in 2025, driven by a vibrant capital market and robust growth in brokerage and proprietary trading businesses [1][2] - As of January 30, 2025, 21 listed securities firms have disclosed their performance forecasts, with leading firms like CITIC Securities and Guotai Junan expected to maintain their market dominance, projecting CITIC Securities' net profit to exceed 30 billion yuan and Guotai Haitong's net profit growth rate to exceed 100% year-on-year [1] - Smaller securities firms are anticipated to show even greater profit elasticity, with Guolian Minsheng forecasting a year-on-year net profit growth rate exceeding 400% [1] Group 2 - The growth drivers for the 2025 performance of these listed securities firms include brokerage and proprietary trading businesses, supported by a favorable A-share market environment and government policies aimed at stabilizing growth and boosting the capital market [2] - Factors such as a moderately loose liquidity environment, continuous optimization of the capital market, and the restoration of investor confidence are expected to collectively enhance the performance of the securities sector [2] - The current valuation of the securities sector is at a historical low, presenting a defensive rebound opportunity, with recommendations to focus on strong leading firms and those with competitive advantages in wealth management, proprietary trading, and cross-border business [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the strong performance expectations for listed securities firms in 2025, with major firms like CITIC Securities and Guotai Junan maintaining their market leadership [1][2] - As of January 30, 2025, 21 listed securities firms have disclosed their performance forecasts, with CITIC Securities expected to achieve a net profit exceeding 30 billion yuan and Guotai Haitong projecting a year-on-year net profit growth rate exceeding 100% [1] - Smaller securities firms are anticipated to show even greater profit elasticity, with Guolian Minsheng forecasting a year-on-year net profit growth rate exceeding 400% for 2025 [1] Group 2 - Brokerage and proprietary trading businesses are identified as the core drivers of performance growth for these listed securities firms in 2025 [2] - The A-share market is expected to remain active in 2025, with a high level of performance in the securities industry, suggesting investment opportunities in the sector [2] - Factors such as a stable growth policy, a conducive capital market environment, and the restoration of investor confidence are expected to drive the upward trend in the securities sector [2] Group 3 - The current valuation of the securities sector is at a historical low, presenting a defensive rebound opportunity [2] - It is recommended to focus on leading securities firms with strong overall capabilities and those with differentiated competitive advantages in wealth management, proprietary trading, and cross-border business [2] - Related concepts in the Hong Kong stock market include Huatai Securities, GF Securities, China Galaxy, Guotai Haitong, CICC, CITIC Securities, and others [3]

Market Overview - The market rebounded yesterday with the Shanghai Composite Index and ChiNext Index both rising over 1%, while the Shenzhen Component Index increased by over 2% [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 2.54 trillion yuan, a decrease of 40.5 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] - Over 4,800 stocks in the market saw gains, indicating a rapid rotation of market hotspots [1] Sector Performance - The commercial aerospace sector experienced a significant surge, with stocks like Jieli Rigging, Tongyu Communication, Shenjian Co., and Zhongchao Holdings hitting the daily limit [1] - The space photovoltaic concept continued to strengthen, with stocks such as Guosheng Technology, Jinjing Technology, Zerun New Energy, and Haiyou New Materials also reaching the daily limit [1] - The chemical sector was active, with Hongbaoli achieving two consecutive limits in three days and Wanfeng Co. hitting four consecutive limits [1] - The precious metals sector rebounded, with Hunan Gold achieving six limits in seven days [1] - The AI application concept remained active, with Zhejiang Wenhu Interconnection achieving five limits in eleven days [1] - The banking sector showed weakness, with China Bank experiencing fluctuations and declines [1] Institutional Insights - Huatai Securities noted that the resilience of the funding environment remains, despite a decrease in trading sentiment and a drop in the number of active investors [2] - CITIC Securities highlighted that the capacity electricity price offers high revenue certainty, which is expected to significantly boost domestic energy storage installations [3] - CITIC Construction Investment stated that the global commercial aerospace sector is entering a new phase focused on large-scale deployment and ecosystem construction, driven by companies like SpaceX [4]

行 业 及 产 业 非银金融/ 证券Ⅱ 行 业 研 究 / 相关研究 《证券行业 2026 年投资策略：权益浪潮 下的券商机遇：财富扩容，国际增效》 2025/11/17 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 罗钻辉 A0230523090004 luozh@swsresearch.com 金黎丹 A0230525060004 jinld@swsresearch.com 联系人 金黎丹 A0230525060004 jinld@swsresearch.com 2026 年 02 月 03 日 华泰及广发 H 股再融资落地，持续 加码国际业务 看好 ——券商板块跟踪 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 博时基金 博时基金管理有限公司(researchreport@bosera.com) 使用。1 行 业 点 评 ⚫ 华泰证券：2026/2/3，华泰证券公告根据一般性授权发行 2027 年到期的 H 股零息转债 100 亿港 元。募资净额：拟 99.25 亿港元。初始转股价：每 H 股 19.70 港元（可予调整），较收盘价溢价 率 6.78%。若以初始转股价计，转股约 5.08 ...

或由于现货黄金重回4900美元，完全收复昨日跌幅，今日（2月3日）有色ETF华宝（159876）强势反 弹，场内价格最高飙涨超6.7%，最终收涨6.4%，一举收复20日均线。 成份股方面，湖南黄金涨停，中稀有色涨超8%，涨幅居前。权重股方面，紫金矿业、北方稀土涨超 6%，洛阳钼业涨逾4%，中国铝业涨超3%。 有色金属为何能够强势反弹？或可从两方面进行拆解： 1、市场"误判"新美联储主席，降息是获提名前提 高盛指出，沃什愿意降息是他获得这份工作的先决条件，并且不认为沃什会推动资产负债表大幅缩减， 因美联储内部对"充足准备金"框架有广泛支持。沃什可能不会真正推动重启量化紧缩，因为这对风险资 产的破坏性太大。* 2、地缘政治扰动，"战略自主"重要性凸显 巴克莱指出，特朗普2.0时代的政策核心是"扩张性财政+关税通胀"。美国政府债务水平高企且无意约 束，投资者对法币贬值的长期恐惧因政策不确定性而加剧。德意志银行指出，继俄罗斯储备被冻结后， 全球央行"战略自主"需求凸显。黄金的储备地位从"收益驱动"转向"生存驱动"*。 黄金牛市还在吗？近期黄金暴跌被华尔街视为"技术性洗盘"，牛市逻辑并未动摇。德银坚定看多至6000 美 ...

Macro Insights - The Federal Reserve paused interest rate cuts during the January meeting, with Powell indicating a higher threshold for future cuts due to reduced inflation and employment risks[2] - The upcoming change in tariff base mid-year is expected to facilitate monetary easing under the new chairmanship, reflecting the Fed's policy independence[2] Market Strategy - A-shares are expected to experience volatility in February, with a lack of catalysts before the Spring Festival leading to decreased market activity[4] - Post-Spring Festival, policy catalysts are anticipated to accelerate, potentially improving index performance[4] Investment Recommendations - Focus on cyclical and technology sectors, with particular attention to semiconductor and AI-related stocks, as well as sectors benefiting from the 14th Five-Year Plan[5] - Recommended index combinations include large-cap indices like CSI 1000 and ChiNext 50, with a preference for growth styles over value[5] Liquidity and Fund Flows - February is projected to see continued net inflows of incremental funds, with foreign capital expected to flow in before the Spring Festival[7] - The stock market experienced net outflows in January, but financing is becoming a primary source of incremental capital[7] Sector Performance - Industrial profits turned positive in December, with high growth areas identified in resource products and AI-driven sectors[8] - The insurance sector is expected to perform strongly in 2026, with significant growth in new policy premiums driven by favorable market conditions[15]