证券研究报告·策略报告·策略点评 策略点评 20251027 反弹之路开启——港股&海外周观察 2025 年 10 月 27 日 我们认为港股阶段性反弹开启，中长期仍在震荡上行趋势中。 其一，前期回调因素有所缓和。随着中美双方沟通推进，市场对关税问 题的态度有所调整。此外，市场对十五五规划反馈积极，内外资整体看 好未来经济趋势，但仍关心物价。 从技术层面来看，截至 10 月 24 日，标普 500 市场广度回落至 65%，市 场宽度在缩小。 其二，科技板块仍需观察美国科技股财报情况。美国科技龙头叙事会持 续影响全球科技产业链股票交易节奏。我们对 AI 趋势乐观，继续认为 在降息周期下科技股的相对胜率更高。 中长期来看，美股回归由经济基本面和企业盈利韧性所主导的轨道上， 主要趋势依然向上。一是，在宏观政策"三降"——降利率、降关税、降 其三，我们继续认为明年一季度基本面叙事会更加顺畅。今年剩下时间， 整体科技弹性更高，但同时建议关注部分红利股，按照以往情形 11-12 月红利股相对胜率较高。 ◼ 美股：本周纳指领涨 2.3%，道指上涨 2.2%，标普 500 上涨 1.9%。行业 上，能源、材料领涨；电信业务、 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on AI growth and highlights key companies to focus on: ZhongJi InnoLight, Eoptolink Technology, Yuanjie Technology, ZTE, Hui Lyu Ecological Technology Groups Co., Ltd., Shenzhen JPT Opto-Electronics, Ruijie Networks, Aojie Technology, and Unisplendour [1][31]. Core Insights - The demand for optical modules is expected to increase significantly, with a forecast of 20 million units for 1.6T optical modules by 2026 [15][39]. - The communication industry is seen as the foundation of the digital economy, encompassing various sectors such as AI ecosystems, satellite internet, data elements, AIoT, internet of vehicles, and industrial internet [31][39]. - OpenAI's release of the AI browser ChatGPT Atlas is viewed as a significant development in redefining internet usage [6][38]. - Anthropic's agreement with Google Cloud for up to one million TPUs, valued at several billion dollars, indicates strong growth potential in AI infrastructure [10][39]. - The acquisition of a 94% stake in Wuhan Ruijing by Dugen Core is expected to enhance technical synergy in the optoelectronics field [12][39]. Summary by Sections Optical Module Demand - The report revises the demand forecast for 1.6T optical modules upwards, predicting a demand of over 20 million units by 2026, with a significant supply gap anticipated for high-speed optical modules [15][39]. AI and Communication - The report emphasizes the acceleration of AI-related investments and innovations, particularly in GPU capabilities and communication networks, which are crucial for enhancing AI efficiency [31][32]. Company Performance - The report includes a simulated investment portfolio for the communication sector, showing a strong performance with an average increase of 14.95% for selected stocks during the specified period [22][23].

Market Overview - A-shares surged on October 27, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising over 1% and nearing the 4000-point mark, reaching a new high in over 10 years [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3996.94 points, up 1.18%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.51% to 13489.4 points, and the ChiNext Index increased by 1.98% to 3234.45 points [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 23.568 billion yuan, an increase of 3.65 billion yuan from the previous day [1] Technology Sector Performance - Semiconductor and technology stocks experienced significant gains, with companies like Jiangbolong and Zhaoyi Innovation hitting new highs [2][4] - Jiangbolong approached the daily limit, while Zhaoyi Innovation and Demingli also reached the limit, indicating strong market interest in these stocks [2] - The demand for storage chips is expected to continue rising, driven by AI applications, with major suppliers like Samsung and SK Hynix planning to increase prices by 30% in Q4 [5][4] AI Industry Dynamics - The AI industry chain stocks showed robust performance, with companies like Dongtianwei and Shijia Optoelectronics seeing significant price increases [6] - The demand for AI servers and data centers is growing exponentially, disrupting traditional supply-demand balances in the storage chip market [5] - Domestic computing power is expected to fill the gap in demand, with projections indicating that domestic chip production will ramp up significantly by 2026 [8] Brokerage Sector Activity - The brokerage sector saw notable upward movement, with firms like Dongxing Securities and Xiangcai Securities approaching daily limits [9] - The overall market capitalization of A-shares has surpassed 100 trillion yuan, providing a broad growth opportunity for brokerage firms [9] - Increased trading activity and a rise in margin financing balances are expected to support the performance of brokerage firms in the near term [9]

Core Insights - Major Bitcoin mining companies are pivoting to provide computing power for AI applications, driven by the surging demand for AI capabilities from tech giants like Google, Microsoft, and Meta [1][3][6] - The transition from cryptocurrency mining to AI data centers is seen as a more profitable avenue, as traditional mining has become less viable due to market saturation and Bitcoin price volatility [2][3][6] - Analysts predict that the shift to AI data centers will significantly enhance revenue and profit margins for mining companies, as they already possess the necessary infrastructure [2][3][4] Industry Trends - Bitcoin mining firms are upgrading their infrastructure to support high-performance computing (HPC) and AI workloads, allowing for rapid adaptation to the growing AI market [2][4] - The competitive landscape of Bitcoin mining has led to decreased profitability, prompting companies to seek alternative revenue streams through AI [3][6] - The demand for AI computing resources is skyrocketing, with major players like OpenAI and Anthropic forming multi-billion dollar partnerships with AI chip leaders [3][4] Company Developments - Companies like CleanSpark, Riot, and TeraWulf are actively pursuing AI data center strategies, resulting in significant stock price increases [6][9] - IREN Limited has shifted focus from Bitcoin mining to AI data center services, purchasing AI chips to support this transition [8][9] - Analysts have raised target prices for companies like IREN, indicating strong market confidence in their pivot to AI [9] Market Opportunities - Bitcoin mining companies are well-positioned to meet the AI computing demand due to their existing infrastructure, which can be quickly adapted for AI workloads [4][5] - The ability to provide renewable energy and established data center capabilities makes these mining firms ideal partners for cloud computing giants facing construction delays [4][5] - The transition to AI data centers is viewed as a structural change in the industry, with long-term contracts and partnerships being established [9]

Group 1: Market Performance - CPO shows strong performance with leading companies like Zhongji Xuchuang and Xinyi Sheng reaching historical highs [1] - Cloud computing ETF Huatai (159273) rises nearly 3%, with a trading volume exceeding 420 million yuan, and its latest scale surpassing 1.67 billion yuan [1] - The technology sector experienced a significant rebound last week due to favorable news and policies [1] Group 2: Industry Demand and Trends - Demand for 1.6T optical modules is continuously increasing, with total industry demand expected to rise from 10 million to 20 million units due to accelerated deployment of GB300 and Rubin platforms [3] - The global port sales for CPO are projected to reach 4.5 million units by 2027, with market revenue potentially reaching 2.6 billion USD by 2033, reflecting a CAGR of 46% from 2022 to 2033 [3] Group 3: Policy and Strategic Developments - The 14th Five-Year Plan emphasizes improving the level of technological self-reliance, which is expected to drive the domestic computing power sector [4] - Recent collaboration between Google and Anthropic to deploy 1 million TPU chips for AI model training indicates significant investment in computing power [4] - Nvidia has exited the Chinese market, reducing its market share from 95% to 0%, which may impact the competitive landscape [4] Group 4: AI and Cloud Computing Growth - AI is identified as a new growth driver for the cloud computing industry, with a shift in business opportunities towards application layers [7] - Major cloud providers are experiencing tight supply and demand, leading to accelerated revenue growth and increased capital expenditure for high-performance infrastructure [8] - The cloud computing market is expected to see significant growth due to the demand for computing power driven by AI applications [8]

Group 1 - The core theme of the 2025 Financial Street Forum is "Innovation, Transformation, and Reshaping Global Financial Development," with a significant focus on the integration of finance and technology [3] - The China Securities Financial Technology Theme Index rose by 0.65%, with notable increases in constituent stocks such as Hengbao Co., Ltd. (up 9.99%) and Guoao Technology (up 6.63%) [3] - The Financial Technology ETF (516860) has shown a cumulative increase of 3.85% over the past week, ranking 1/6 among comparable funds [3] Group 2 - The Financial Technology ETF recorded a turnover rate of 3.54% with a transaction volume of 88.2366 million yuan, and its average daily transaction volume over the past month was 179 million yuan, ranking in the top 2 among comparable funds [3] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes technological self-reliance and innovation, aiming to accelerate the integration of technology and industry, particularly in artificial intelligence and algorithmic fields [3] - The Financial Technology ETF has seen a significant increase in scale, growing by 64.6857 million yuan over the past week, ranking 2/6 among comparable funds [4] Group 3 - The top ten weighted stocks in the China Securities Financial Technology Theme Index account for 55.55% of the index, including companies like Tonghuashun and Dongfang Caifu [5] - The Financial Technology ETF has experienced a net inflow of 14.977 million yuan recently, with a total of 24.762 million yuan over the past 12 trading days [4]

Group 1 - The China Securities Index for the gaming and cultural media sector (931580) has seen a strong increase of 1.17% as of October 27, 2025, with notable gains from stocks such as Southern Media (601900) up 5.68%, and Reading Group (00772) up 3.99% [1] - OpenAI launched the AI browser ChatGPT Atlas on October 21, 2025, which competes directly with Google Chrome, allowing users to utilize ChatGPT for content summarization and task execution on any webpage [1] - The Gaming Media ETF (517770) rose by 0.74%, with the latest price reported at 1.22 yuan [1] Group 2 - Huaxin Securities highlights that the 14th Five-Year Plan aims to stimulate cultural innovation and creativity across the nation, indicating that the media sector combines technology and discretionary consumption attributes [2] - Continuous updates in AI products are leading to market "aesthetic fatigue," and innovation is seen as a preferred method to overcome this fatigue, with a persistent demand for quality content and exploration of AI's unknown boundaries [2] - The Gaming Media ETF closely tracks the China Securities Index for the gaming and cultural media sector, which includes 50 listed companies involved in gaming, film, broadcasting, marketing, publishing, education, and cultural performances [2] Group 3 - As of September 30, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the China Securities Index for the gaming and cultural media sector include Kuaishou-W (01024), Tencent Holdings (00700), and others, collectively accounting for 56.63% of the index [3]

Group 1: US-China Economic Talks - The US-China economic talks were held in Kuala Lumpur on October 25-26, led by Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng and US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, focusing on key issues such as maritime logistics, shipbuilding industry measures, and agricultural trade [2][3] - Both sides reached a basic consensus on addressing mutual concerns and agreed to further define specific details while adhering to domestic approval processes [2] - He Lifeng emphasized that the essence of US-China economic relations is mutual benefit, advocating for stable development that aligns with the fundamental interests of both nations and the international community [2] Group 2: Financial Policy and Economic Recovery - The State Council's report highlighted the need for a moderately loose monetary policy to support economic recovery, aiming to lower overall financing costs [4] - Future financial work will focus on providing high-quality financial services to the real economy, emphasizing support for technology innovation, consumption, small and micro enterprises, and stabilizing foreign trade [4] - The report also mentioned the planning of significant policies and projects to drive economic growth, ensuring a solid start for the 14th Five-Year Plan [5][6] Group 3: Central Bank and Financial Market Stability - The People's Bank of China emphasized the importance of a balanced monetary policy to maintain stability in financial markets, including stock, bond, and foreign exchange markets [7][8] - The central bank aims to enhance the effectiveness of monetary policy and improve the transmission mechanism to support stable economic growth [8] Group 4: Capital Market Development - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) is focused on enhancing the resilience and risk resistance of the capital market, promoting a "long money, long investment" ecosystem [9] - The CSRC plans to deepen reforms in various market segments, including the Sci-Tech Innovation Board and the Growth Enterprise Market, to improve market inclusivity and adaptability [9] Group 5: Semiconductor Industry Breakthrough - A research team from Peking University achieved a breakthrough in the semiconductor field by using cryo-electron tomography to analyze the micro-3D structure of photoresist molecules, which is crucial for reducing lithography defects [10][11] - The market for photoresist in China is expected to grow significantly, with projections indicating a market size of over 11.4 billion yuan in 2024 and 12.3 billion yuan in 2025 [10] Group 6: US Stock Market Performance - On October 24, US stock indices reached all-time highs, with the Dow Jones up 1.01%, S&P 500 up 0.79%, and Nasdaq up 1.15%, driven by lower-than-expected inflation data [11] - Notable performances included significant gains in storage stocks and major technology companies, indicating strong market sentiment [11] Group 7: Upcoming Financial Events - The 2025 Financial Street Forum will take place from October 27-30 in Beijing, focusing on global financial development and innovation [12] - A "super central bank week" is anticipated, with key interest rate decisions from multiple central banks, including the Federal Reserve, expected to influence market dynamics [12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for the communication industry [6][68]. Core Views - The global computing power remains in a high prosperity phase, with significant developments in China's commercial aerospace and AI infrastructure [1][3][5]. - The report highlights the rapid growth of domestic optical module companies and the continuous increase in demand for data communication products, indicating a sustained high industry prosperity [3][22][30]. Summary by Sections Industry News Tracking - The successful completion of the first phase of the Zhuque-3 rocket flight test marks a significant advancement in China's commercial aerospace sector [2][13]. - The Chinese government emphasizes the importance of artificial intelligence, aiming to enhance innovation ecosystems and accelerate AI development [17][19]. - Domestic optical module companies report significant year-on-year profit growth, validating the high prosperity of the data communication sector [22][24]. - The optical cable export data shows a quarter-on-quarter growth of 9.04%, reflecting the ongoing industry prosperity [30][31]. Market Performance Review - The communication index increased by 11.55%, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index, which rose by 3.24% [4][55]. - The optical module, industrial communication, and optical fiber cable sectors performed particularly well [55]. Investment Recommendations - Continuous attention is recommended for the development of AI computing power infrastructure, with specific focus on optical devices and modules, communication equipment, and liquid cooling technologies [5][65]. - The three major telecom operators are highlighted as important assets for dividend allocation, with stable operations and increasing dividend ratios [5][65]. Key Company Earnings Forecast and Investment Ratings - China Mobile, Zhongji Xuchuang, and ZTE Corporation are rated as "Outperform the Market" with projected earnings per share (EPS) growth for 2025 and 2026 [6][62].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for the communication industry [6][68]. Core Views - The global computing power remains in a high prosperity phase, with significant developments in China's commercial aerospace and AI infrastructure [1][3][5]. - The report highlights the rapid growth of domestic optical module companies and the continuous increase in demand for data communication products, indicating a sustained high industry prosperity [3][22][30]. Summary by Sections Industry News Tracking - The Zhuque-3 rocket successfully completed the first phase of its flight test, marking a significant step in China's commercial aerospace development [2][13]. - The Chinese government emphasizes the importance of AI and is committed to fostering a favorable innovation ecosystem to accelerate AI development [2][17][19]. Company Performance - Huagong Technology reported a net profit of 410 million yuan in Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 32.89%, driven by the growth in its optical module business [3][22]. - Guangxun Technology's revenue in Q3 2025 reached 3.289 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 45.01%, benefiting from a shift in product structure towards high-speed optical modules [3][26]. - The optical cable export data for September 2025 showed a 9.04% increase month-on-month, reflecting the ongoing high demand in the industry [30][31]. Market Performance - The communication index rose by 11.55% this week, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index, which increased by 3.24% [4][55]. - The report notes that the optical module, industrial communication, and optical fiber cable sectors performed particularly well [4][58]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests continued focus on the development of AI computing power infrastructure, recommending companies like Zhongji Xuchuang and ZTE for investment [5][65]. - The three major telecom operators are highlighted as important assets for dividend allocation, with stable operations and increasing dividend payouts [5][65].