证券研究报告·行业动态 每周观察：光伏领跑者历史复盘，行业后 续将向什么方向演进？ 核心观点 通过复盘 2015-2017 年光伏领跑者计划实施的背景及影响，我们发现当前行 业状态与当时的产业背景较为相似。陕西省今年 2 月发布"领跑者计划"， 若后续在全国范围推开，将助推低效产能逐步出清。但和 15-17 年相比，目 前行业不同的情况在于光伏 3 项 N 型电池技术各有优势，不同场景下适配 性有明显差异，分布式及背面反射率偏低的场景下 BC 综合输出功率具有优 势，而反射率较高的场景中 TOPCon、HJT 等综合输出功率较高。建议关注 布局 BC、TOPCon3.0 等高效 N 型技术较为领先的企业。 摘要 上一轮光伏"领跑者计划"推出背景如何？ 2015 年前后光伏行业供需失衡，行业陷入价格战泥潭导致企业新技术投资 意愿低，技术进步缓慢。为解决这一问题，光伏"领跑者计划"应运而 生。2015-2017 年，国内共推出三轮领跑者计划，项目规模分别为 1GW/5.5GW/6.5GW，分别占当年国内新增装机的 7.8%/15.9%/12.2%。电池& 组件效率等技术门槛逐步提升，规模逐步扩大。 政策实施推动单 ...

Group 1 - CATL will collaborate with Quinbrook to develop an 8-hour battery storage project in Australia, providing approximately 3GW of long-duration energy storage technology, equivalent to 24GWh of storage capacity [1] - Dongfang Risen's energy storage system, featuring 14 units of iCon 100kW/215kWh, is projected to generate nearly 10 million yuan in additional revenue over 10 years for Yiming Food [2] - Xineng An and Hailiang Technology signed a strategic cooperation agreement to deliver a 2GWh energy storage system over three years, capable of supporting over 100,000 electric vehicles [3] Group 2 - Penghui Lihe signed a contract for a 200MW/400MWh energy storage project in Inner Mongolia, with a total investment of 600 million yuan and a construction period of one year [4] - Canadian Solar's subsidiary, Aypa Power, has signed major battery supply agreements for two projects in California and Texas, totaling 1.8GWh of storage capacity [5] - Jinko Energy and Kubo Energy are the leading candidates for a procurement bid for 25MWh of energy storage cabinets by Southern Power Grid, with bids of 0.65 yuan/Wh and 0.68 yuan/Wh respectively [6] Group 3 - China Communications First Public Bureau is procuring a commercial energy storage system with a total capacity of 67.68MW/282MWh, located in Tai'an, Shandong Province [7] - The 13th International Energy Storage Summit and Exhibition (ESIE 2025) will take place from April 10-12, 2025, featuring over 800 leading companies and 500 new product launches [9]

证券研究报告 | 公司动态点评 2025 年 03 月 04 日 阿特斯（688472.SH） 组件业务显现韧性，大储放量穿越周期 | 财务指标 | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入（百万元） | 47,536 | 51,310 | 46,161 | 48,983 | 56,887 | | 增长率 yoy（%） | 69.7 | 7.9 | -10.0 | 6.1 | 16.1 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 2,157 | 2,903 | 2,291 | 3,530 | 4,074 | | 增长率 yoy（%） | 6065.4 | 34.6 | -21.1 | 54.1 | 15.4 | | ROE（%） | 18.3 | 13.4 | 9.8 | 13.2 | 13.3 | | EPS 最新摊薄（元） | 0.58 | 0.79 | 0.62 | 0.96 | 1.10 | | P/E（倍） | 18.6 | 13.8 | 17.5 | 11.4 | 9.9 | | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the electrical equipment industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector in the next six months [4][28]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the global top five battery cell suppliers had a total shipment of 162.8 GW in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 10.7%. The PERC battery cells accounted for approximately 53.5 GW, while TOPCon battery cells reached 109.3 GW, representing 67% of total shipments [3][14]. - The top ten global module companies shipped around 502 GW in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 22%, with domestic shipments at 289 GW, making up 58% of the total. The top four companies, Jinko, Longi, JA Solar, and Trina, contributed approximately 316 GW, accounting for 63% of the top ten shipments [3][14]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance Review - The photovoltaic index increased by 1.7% during the week of February 17-21, outperforming the CSI 300 index, which rose by 1.00%. The top five performers in the sector included Kehua Data (+24.25%) and Igor (+17.04%) [9]. Industry Perspective Update - Recent policies from the National Energy Administration emphasize the development of distributed photovoltaic power generation, encouraging various stakeholders to invest and operate in this sector. The report notes critical deadlines of April 30 and May 31, 2025, for existing projects to secure subsidies [10][11][12]. Industry Highlights - The report indicates that the competitive landscape among second-tier manufacturers is intensifying, with companies like Tongwei, Chint New Energy, and Canadian Solar vying for market share. The top five battery cell suppliers are expected to leverage technological advancements to maintain their leading positions [14][15][16].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the electrical equipment industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector in the next six months [4][28]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the global top five battery cell suppliers had a total shipment of 162.8 GW in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 10.7%. The PERC battery cells accounted for approximately 53.5 GW, while TOPCon battery cells reached 109.3 GW, making up 67% of the total shipments [3][14]. - The top ten global module companies shipped around 502 GW in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 22%, although the growth rate is slowing. Domestic shipments were 289 GW, representing 58% of the total, indicating stable domestic demand [3][14]. - Recent policies from the National Energy Administration are expected to guide the high-quality development of the renewable energy sector, emphasizing project quality and efficiency [4][10][12]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance Review - The photovoltaic index increased by 1.7% during the week of February 17-21, outperforming the CSI 300 index, which rose by 1.00%. The top five performers in the sector included Kehua Data (+24.25%) and Igor (+17.04%) [9]. Industry Perspective Update - The report discusses the significance of the policy deadlines on April 30 and May 31, 2025, which are expected to accelerate project completion to secure existing subsidies. The distributed order volume, particularly in commercial sectors, has seen a slight increase [10][12][13]. Key Industry Data - The report provides detailed statistics on the shipment volumes of battery cells and modules, noting that the top four module manufacturers contributed approximately 316 GW, accounting for 63% of the top ten's total shipments. The competitive landscape in the second tier of manufacturers is intensifying [14][15][16]. - The report also notes that the price of battery components continues to decline, with a 40% annual drop in TOPCon battery prices, leading to increased cost pressures on companies [16]. Data Tracking - The report includes various data points tracking the monthly installation capacity of photovoltaic and wind power in China from January 2020 to December 2024, providing insights into market trends and growth [18][19][20].

Investment Rating - The solar industry maintains a "Synchronize with the Market-A" investment rating [1] Core Viewpoints - The CPIA forecasts that China will add 215-255 GW of new solar capacity in 2025, with global solar capacity expected to increase by 531-583 GW, reflecting a 10% year-on-year growth in optimistic scenarios [1] - The National Energy Administration projects that by 2025, non-fossil energy will account for approximately 20% of total energy consumption, with a total installed power generation capacity exceeding 3.6 billion kilowatts [2] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology indicates that the photovoltaic manufacturing industry will continue to see a "volume increase and price decrease" trend in 2024, with production of polysilicon, wafers, cells, and modules all expected to grow by over 10% year-on-year [2] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The solar industry is expected to maintain high levels of new installations in 2025, with projections of 215-255 GW in China [1] Price Tracking - Polysilicon prices remain stable, with dense material averaging 39.0 CNY/kg and granular silicon at 37.0 CNY/kg [4] - The average price for 182mm monocrystalline wafers is 1.15 CNY/piece, while N-type wafers average 1.18 CNY/piece [5] - M10 cell prices are stable at 0.33 CNY/W, with N-type cells seeing a slight increase of 1.8% [5] - The average price for 182mm bifacial PERC modules is 0.65 CNY/W, with TOPCon modules at 0.695 CNY/W, reflecting a 0.7% increase [6] Investment Recommendations - Key recommendations include companies focusing on new technology (Aixu Co., Longi Green Energy), supply-side improvements (Folait), and overseas expansion (Canadian Solar, Sungrow Power) [7]

Core Viewpoint - Major blue-chip companies are releasing positive news, indicating potential investment opportunities in the Chinese market, particularly through share buybacks and significant contracts [2][3][8]. Group 1: Share Buybacks and Increases - Gree Electric announced that its major shareholder, Jinghai Internet Technology, plans to increase its stake in the company by investing between RMB 10.5 billion and RMB 21 billion over the next six months [2][5]. - Hikvision reported a share buyback of 35.1 million shares, representing 0.38% of its total share capital, with a total buyback amount of RMB 1.068 billion [5]. - China Merchants Energy announced a buyback of 38.2 million shares, accounting for 0.47% of its total share capital, with a total buyback amount of RMB 251 million [6]. Group 2: Major Contracts Announced - China Shipbuilding announced a significant contract for the construction of 18,000 TEU LNG dual-fuel container ships, valued between RMB 18 billion and RMB 19 billion, with delivery scheduled for 2028 and 2029 [3][8]. - The contract is expected to enhance the company's long-term market competitiveness and profitability, aligning with international green energy design standards [8]. - Additionally, a framework supply agreement was signed between Dangsheng Technology and SK On for the supply of lithium battery cathode materials, expected to positively impact the company's performance from 2025 to 2027 [9]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Valuation - UBS maintains an overweight position on China, suggesting that the Chinese market should trade at a 15% premium compared to other emerging markets, despite currently being at a 30% discount [3][11]. - The firm highlights that the resilience of capital inflows into the Chinese market could mitigate risks associated with trade conflicts [11]. - The overall sentiment indicates that despite potential trade tensions, the Chinese stock market remains attractive for further investment [11].

摘要 江苏率先落地绿电直连试点，新能源电池企业受益。 为应对欧盟日趋严苛的电池产品碳足迹新规，中国电池产业正积极探索绿电直连模式。江苏省率先 启动试点，宁德时代等企业积极参与其中。这项探索旨在帮助中国电池企业突破欧盟碳壁垒，维持 全球竞争力。 二月底，中国首批五个企业绿电直连供电试点项目落地江苏，常州、苏州、盐城三市率先启动试 点，聚焦新能源电池产业链。宁德时代常州生产基地、阿特斯（盐城）、科森科技（苏州）储能项 目、凯金新能源盐城负极产能等首批项目均被纳入试点范围。更值得关注的是，该试点还吸引了宁 德时代在盐城新增规划产能，战略意义凸显。 欧盟碳足迹新规倒逼绿色升级 欧盟新电池法对进口电池产品的碳足迹划定了严格红线，不仅要求强制披露、分级，还设定了最大 阈值，并逐年收紧标准。动力电池碳足迹中，电力消耗的碳排放占比高达六成以上，是决定电池碳 足迹的关键要素。 经济性方面，新建绿电直供项目，对电网公司和用电企业来说均意味着投资风险，包括线路改造、 电站投资和用户侧改造等额外成本，且存在投资回收期长，供需关系单一等问题。项目能否盈利， 关键在于绿电溢价能否覆盖投资成本。 而电网运营成本的增加，最终可能推高全社会输 ...

Core Viewpoint - The global energy transition is accelerating, with large-scale energy storage (ESS) becoming a critical component in addressing the challenges posed by renewable energy integration and ensuring grid stability [1][3][4]. Group 1: Global Energy Trends - The electrification trend is increasing globally, particularly in emerging markets like China, India, and Southeast Asia, driving up electricity demand [1]. - The International Energy Agency (IEA) projects that global electricity consumption growth will reach 4% in both 2024 and 2025, the highest rate since 2007 [1]. - The global consensus on "carbon neutrality" is reshaping the energy landscape, with 151 countries having set carbon neutrality targets covering 92% of global GDP, 89% of the population, and 88% of emissions as of September 2023 [2]. Group 2: Renewable Energy Growth - The installed capacity of renewable energy, particularly wind and solar, has seen significant growth, with global installations increasing from 115.2 GW in 2015 to 461.8 GW in 2023, representing a compound annual growth rate of 19.0% [2]. - The European Union has set ambitious renewable energy targets, increasing the share of renewables in energy consumption to 45% by 2030 [5]. Group 3: Energy Storage as a Solution - Energy storage, especially large-scale storage, is viewed as a key solution to the challenges of renewable energy integration, particularly in regions where grid infrastructure is lagging [3][4]. - The European storage market is expected to grow significantly, with projections indicating a 205% increase in large-scale storage installations by 2024 [15][16]. Group 4: Regional Developments - Italy plans to deploy approximately 50 GW of solar and 16 GW of wind energy by 2030, with significant investments in storage infrastructure to support this growth [6]. - Germany's large-scale storage projects are expected to see a 158% year-on-year increase in new installations by 2025, driven by favorable project returns [7]. - Spain aims to increase the share of renewables in its energy mix to 81% by 2030, with storage capacity targets raised to 22.5 GW [8]. Group 5: Challenges and Market Dynamics - Despite the growth in renewable energy, issues such as intermittency and grid stability remain significant challenges, necessitating advancements in storage technology and infrastructure [3][4]. - The U.S. energy storage market is projected to see a 68% year-on-year increase in installations in 2024, driven by policy support and market demand [17][21]. - The U.S. is experiencing a shift from coal to renewable energy, with a significant portion of coal-fired plants expected to retire by 2035, further emphasizing the need for energy storage solutions [17][18]. Group 6: Future Outlook - The demand for large-scale storage in the U.S. is expected to remain strong, with planned projects exceeding 600 GW, indicating a robust market potential [22][23]. - The global energy transition is anticipated to continue, with storage solutions playing a pivotal role in achieving renewable energy targets and ensuring grid reliability [3][4][22].

Investment Rating - The industry maintains a rating of "Outperform the Market" [1][31]. Core Insights - The report highlights strong sales in the new energy vehicle sector, with significant year-on-year growth in sales figures for major companies like BYD and Xpeng [1][18]. - The photovoltaic sector is expected to see increased demand due to market reforms in electricity pricing, leading to potential price increases in the short term [1][18]. - The wind power sector is projected to recover profitability as domestic and overseas demand remains robust, supported by ongoing project tenders and construction [1][18]. - The solid-state battery technology is anticipated to achieve mass production by 2027, benefiting companies involved in battery materials and equipment [1][18]. - The report emphasizes the importance of the hydrogen energy sector, with policies promoting its industrial development and applications in various fields [1][18]. Summary by Sections New Energy Vehicles - February sales figures show BYD at 323,000 units (up 164% YoY), Xpeng at 30,500 units (up 570% YoY), and Li Auto at 26,300 units (up 29.7% YoY) [1][18]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology projects a total lithium battery production of 1,170 GWh in 2024, a 24% increase YoY [1][18]. Photovoltaic and Wind Power - The National Energy Administration aims for over 200 million kW of new renewable energy generation capacity by 2025 [1][18]. - The report notes a rise in domestic photovoltaic module prices due to increased production and demand [1][18]. - CPIA forecasts global photovoltaic installations to reach 531-583 GW in 2025, reflecting a 0%-10% growth [1][18]. Hydrogen Energy - The European Commission has introduced a Clean Industrial Deal, positioning clean hydrogen as a key pillar for energy sovereignty, with plans to raise €100 billion for industrial decarbonization [1][18]. Company Performance - JinkoSolar expects a net profit of -1.012 billion yuan for 2024, a decrease of 114.66% YoY [1][20]. - Trina Solar anticipates a net profit of -3.455 billion yuan for 2024, a decrease of 162.46% YoY [1][20]. - Other companies like GCL-Poly and LONGi Green Energy also report significant declines in net profits for 2024 [1][20].