Core Viewpoint - The global chemical industry is undergoing a transformation due to intensified competition and structural overcapacity, leading to a shift from traditional, unprofitable sectors to innovative high polymer materials, driven by new applications in low-altitude economy, robotics, electric vehicles, semiconductors, and renewable energy [1]. Group 1: Industry Trends - The chemical industry is transitioning from "scale-based competition" to "technology-based competition," emphasizing breakthroughs in new material technologies and structures [1]. - China's dominance in the global chemical sector is increasing, attracting multinational companies to establish innovation and R&D centers in the country due to its vast market, complete industrial chain, and stable political environment [1]. Group 2: Event Overview - The 2025 Polymer Industry Annual Conference and "New Plastic Award" will be held from September 10-12, 2025, in Hefei, Anhui, focusing on the theme "The Rise of China's Emerging Industries Leading the Next Decade of Polymers" [2]. - The event will feature three main components: thematic industry conferences, innovation exhibitions, and the New Plastic Award ceremony, along with specialized sessions for terminal connections, international cooperation, and project roadshows [2]. Group 3: Conference Highlights - Over 600 global corporate leaders and top scientists will participate, fostering collaboration and exchange [3]. - More than 50 overseas associations and foreign enterprises will gather to support companies in international expansion [3]. - The event will include participation from over 100 end-users from emerging industries such as electric vehicles and robotics, facilitating direct connections for material application needs [3]. - A CEO strategic seminar will feature discussions on the future of polymer materials with government officials, academicians, and industry leaders [3]. Group 4: Forum Topics - The conference will cover various topics, including industry development, market analysis, investment and financing, and AI empowerment in polymer materials [5][8]. - Specific forums will focus on high-performance engineering plastics, new additives, and the development of sustainable plastics [9][12][13]. Group 5: Innovation and Collaboration - The event will emphasize the importance of AI in enhancing material development processes and fostering interdisciplinary research [21]. - International cooperation sessions will explore opportunities for Chinese companies to expand globally and attract foreign investment in the chemical materials sector [22].

【DT新材料】 获悉， 近日， 东粤化学 20 万吨/年混合废塑料资源化综合利用示范性项目试生产成功，受到全球废塑料回收行业极大关注，刷屏内 网。 之所以如此震动，是因为： （1）体量大 。年废塑料处理量高达20万吨，实现了从"废塑料→循环化工原料→循环高端材料"的绿色化工产业链条，并且可复制推广，号称 全球首 套和首创 。 （2）收率高 。项目采用"一步法"深度催化裂解技术（CPDCC），可将废塑料直接转为裂解气、液化气、轻质油等，较传统的废塑料化学两步法（废 塑料-热解油-气）的收率大大提高。 先不评价项目本身， 最重 要因素应该是：高分子循环再利用，已经毫无疑问成为当下化工产业的"顶流"。 在国内，除 东奥化学 外， 中石化、万华化学、航天石化、金发科技、英科再生、奇美实业、科茂环境、恒誉环保、佳人新材料、格林循环、海尔再循 环 等也已经在纷纷布局。 在国外，热度也同样高，比如隔壁的日本。 之前分析过《日本化工巨头大"撤退"》，DT新材料报道过日本化工巨头第一个集体大动向是布局 生物基化学品和材料 ，其投入力度还真不输走在前列的 欧洲化工巨头。而说到他们集体围观的第二个热门化工赛道，那必须就是这个" 高 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the chemical industry [1] Core Insights - The chemical industry is expected to experience a reversal in prosperity driven by anti-involution measures, with significant opportunities arising from supply-side reforms and the optimization of competitive structures [4][30] - The current economic environment, including the exit of European chemical capacities and the slowdown of new capacities in China, is likely to accelerate the restructuring of the domestic chemical industry [4] - Key sectors to focus on include polyurethane, private refining, low-carbon olefins, coal chemicals, phosphorus chemicals, pesticides, and chromium salts [4][5] Summary by Sections Recent Performance - The basic chemical sector has shown a performance increase of 5.4% over the last month, 12.0% over the last three months, and 22.8% over the last year, outperforming the CSI 300 index [2] Investment Recommendations - The report highlights four major investment opportunities: 1. Low-cost expansion with companies like Wanhua Chemical and Satellite Chemical [4] 2. Improved prosperity in sectors such as chromium salts and phosphorus ores [5] 3. New materials with high growth potential and low domestic production rates [6] 4. High dividend opportunities in state-owned enterprises like China Petroleum and China National Offshore Oil [6] Key Price Movements - Notable price increases include TDI at 15,500 CNY/ton (+23.02% week-on-week) and DMC at 3,900 CNY/ton (+5.41% week-on-week) [8] - The report also tracks various chemical prices, indicating a general upward trend in key products [8][9] Company Tracking - Specific companies are highlighted for their performance and potential, including: - Wanhua Chemical: MDI price stable at 16,700 CNY/ton [9] - Hengli Petrochemical: Polyester filament inventory increased to 26.5 days [12] - Yuntianhua: Phosphate prices stable at 1,038 CNY/ton [13] Market Outlook - The report anticipates a recovery in demand and a continued rise in the prosperity of certain sectors, particularly those with supply constraints [30]

证券研究报告·行业点评报告·基础化工 基础化工行业点评报告 科思创德国工厂发生火灾，TDI 价格快速上 升，或带动 MDI 价格提升 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [投资要点 Table_Summary] 2025 年 07 月 20 日 证券分析师 陈淑娴 执业证书：S0600523020004 chensx@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 周少玟 执业证书：S0600525070005 zhoushm@dwzq.com.cn -10% -7% -4% -1% 2% 5% 8% 11% 14% 17% 20% 23% 2024/7/22 2024/11/19 2025/3/19 2025/7/17 基础化工 沪深300 免责声明 东吴证券股份有限公司经中国证券监督管理委员会批准，已具备证券投资咨询业务资格。 相关研究 东吴证券研究所 1 / 2 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 行业走势 ◼ 事件：2025 年 7 月 16 日，科思创宣布其 TDA/TDI、基于 OTDA 的产 品、聚醚多元醇产品遭遇不可抗力，影响 TDI 产能 30 万吨/年、氯气产 能 48 万吨/年等。缺失的氯气在短期内 ...

Report Overview - Report Title: Synthetic Rubber Weekly Report - Report Date: July 20, 2025 - Report Author: Yang Honghan - Report Institution: Guotai Junan Futures Research Institute 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Short - term, the price center of butadiene and cis - butadiene rubber is moving up. Butadiene is expected to continue a slight upward trend next week, while cis - butadiene rubber is also showing a strong performance. Mid - term, the fundamentals of both face pressure. The increase in supply of butadiene and cis - butadiene rubber may limit price elasticity and upside space [3][5]. - Butadiene is currently in the stage of supply - demand pricing, with a low correlation with the raw material end [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Synthetic Rubber Summary - **Supply**: In late July, the production of cis - butadiene rubber is at the break - even point. Jinzhou Petrochemical and Heze Kexin's cis - butadiene rubber plants restarted this week, and Yanshan Petrochemical is expected to restart in the middle and late next week. After the capacity of the previously restarted plants is released, domestic supply will increase significantly [3]. - **Demand**: For rigid demand, the capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises is expected to fluctuate slightly next week. Order volume has increased in the middle of the month, which is expected to drive overall production slightly. In terms of substitution demand, the price difference between NR - BR main contracts is maintained at 600 - 1000 yuan/ton, and substitution demand remains high. Overall, the demand side of cis - butadiene rubber maintains a high year - on - year growth rate [3]. - **Inventory**: As of July 16, 2025 (week 29), the inventory of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber sample enterprises in China was 32,300 tons, a decrease of 500 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 1.59%. During this period, supported by cost and boosted by macro - sentiment, the inventory of sample production enterprises decreased, while that of sample trading enterprises increased slightly [3]. - **Viewpoint**: Short - term, the price center of cis - butadiene rubber is moving up and showing a strong performance. The reasons include the expected optimization of the supply - side of bulk commodities, the strong performance of the rubber sector, and the marginal improvement of the synthetic rubber industry chain fundamentals. Mid - term, the supply increase may limit price elasticity and upside space [3]. - **Valuation**: The static valuation range of cis - butadiene rubber futures fundamentals is 11,200 - 11,900 yuan/ton. The dynamic valuation is expected to rise gradually. The upper limit of the fundamental valuation is 11,800 - 11,900 yuan/ton, and the lower theoretical valuation bottom range is 11,200 yuan/ton [3]. - **Strategy**: Unilateral trading is strong, with resistance at 11,800 - 11,900 yuan/ton and support at 11,100 - 11,200 yuan/ton. There is no cross - period strategy, and the NR - BR price difference is in a short - term shock range [3]. 3.2 Weekly Butadiene Summary - **Supply**: Some plants stopped for maintenance this week, resulting in a decrease in domestic butadiene supply. This period's output was 100,400 tons, a decrease of 1,400 tons from the previous period, a decline of 1.38%, and the capacity utilization rate was 67.96%, a decrease of 0.93% from the previous period [5]. - **Demand**: In the synthetic rubber sector, the operating rates of cis - butadiene rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber remain high, and the demand for butadiene is at a high year - on - year level. In the ABS sector, due to high inventory pressure, the demand for butadiene is expected to remain constant. In the SBS sector, the operating rate has increased slightly, and the demand for butadiene is for rigid procurement [5]. - **Inventory**: During the period from July 10 - 16, 2025, the total inventory of domestic butadiene samples decreased, with a month - on - month decrease of 4.18%. The inventory of sample enterprises increased slightly, while the inventory of sample ports decreased significantly, with a month - on - month decrease of 15.25% [5]. - **Viewpoint**: Short - term, butadiene is driven by the rebound of bulk commodities and downstream rigid procurement. Spot trading has improved this week, and the price has risen slightly. It is expected to continue the upward trend next week. The overall arrival volume of butadiene in July is expected to be low, and port prices may remain resilient. Mid - term, supply pressure is the main contradiction, and the fundamentals are under pressure. After the macro - sentiment eases, it is expected to enter a weak pattern again [5]. 3.3 Butadiene Fundamentals - **Capacity**: To match the expansion of downstream industries such as ABS, SBS, styrene - butadiene, and cis - butadiene, butadiene capacity is continuously expanding, and the expansion speed and amplitude are slightly faster than those of downstream industries at certain stages [10]. - **Supply - Side - Operating Rate**: The operating rate has fluctuated due to plant maintenance. Some major plants have carried out maintenance this year, affecting the overall supply [14][16]. - **Net Imports**: Relevant data shows the situation of butadiene imports and exports, and import profit is affected by factors such as market price and import cost [17]. - **Demand - Side**: - **Cis - Butadiene and Styrene - Butadiene Rubber**: The capacity of related enterprises is expanding. Some new plants have been put into operation in 2024 - 2025, and the operating rate of some plants is high, with a high demand for butadiene [18][23]. - **ABS and SBS**: The capacity of ABS and SBS has also increased in recent years. The operating rate of ABS has fluctuated, and the inventory pressure is relatively large. The operating rate of SBS has increased slightly, and the demand for butadiene is for rigid procurement [24][27][28]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of butadiene includes enterprise inventory and port inventory. Recently, port inventory has decreased significantly, while enterprise inventory has increased slightly [30][31]. 3.4 Synthetic Rubber Fundamentals (Cis - Butadiene Rubber) - **Supply - Output**: The weekly output of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber in China shows certain fluctuations. The operating status of each plant affects overall output [35]. - **Supply - Cost and Profit**: The theoretical production cost, profit, and gross profit margin of cis - butadiene rubber have changed over time, which are affected by factors such as raw material prices and production efficiency [37][38][39]. - **Supply - Import and Export**: The monthly import and export volume of cis - butadiene rubber shows different trends over the years, which is related to domestic and international market supply - demand relationships [40][41]. - **Supply - Inventory**: The inventory of cis - butadiene rubber includes enterprise inventory, futures inventory, and trader inventory. Recently, enterprise inventory has decreased slightly [44][45]. - **Demand - Tires**: The inventory days of all - steel tires and semi - steel tires in Shandong Province, as well as the operating rates of domestic semi - steel and all - steel tires, show certain fluctuations, which are related to market demand and production plans [48][49].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the chemical industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The petrochemical industry's stable growth plan is expected to optimize the competitive landscape of the chemical industry on the supply side [4][30] - The TDI market price has risen sharply due to supply disruptions caused by an incident at a production facility in Germany [4][24] - The overall profitability of the chemical industry is under pressure due to increased capital expenditures and concentrated new capacity over the past four years, but the upcoming stable growth plans may lead to the elimination of outdated capacity and recovery of product profitability [30] Summary by Sections Industry Trends - The chemical industry index outperformed the CSI 300 index by 0.69% this week, with 302 out of 545 stocks in the sector rising [18] - The CCPI (China Chemical Product Price Index) reported a decrease of 0.27% this week [20] Key Products Tracking - The TDI market price increased to an average of 14,063 CNY/ton, up 17.06% from the previous week [24] - The glyphosate market is showing strong performance with prices continuing to rise, averaging 25,901 CNY/ton [55] Recommended and Beneficiary Stocks - Recommended stocks include Wanhua Chemical, Hualu Hengsheng, Hengli Petrochemical, and others in various sub-sectors [6][30] - Beneficiary stocks include Cangzhou Dahua and others that may benefit from the current market conditions [25][31]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the basic chemical industry [2] Core Viewpoints - The basic chemical sector has outperformed the market, with the industry index rising by 1.8% from July 11 to July 18, compared to a 0.7% increase in the Shanghai Composite Index [9][20] - The report highlights significant price increases in TDI, glyphosate, and glufosinate due to supply disruptions and rising demand, particularly in South America [6][31][33] Summary by Sections 1. Core Viewpoints - The basic chemical sector is expected to benefit from supply-side reforms and improved demand due to recent government policies aimed at stabilizing the economy [17] - The report emphasizes the potential for long-term investment in core assets as the profitability of chemical products has likely bottomed out, suggesting a recovery in valuations [17][18] 2. Overall Performance of the Chemical Sector - The basic chemical industry index has shown a year-to-date increase of 10.8%, outperforming both the Shanghai Composite and ChiNext indices by 5.4% and 4.5%, respectively [20][26] 3. Individual Stock Performance in the Chemical Sector - Among 424 stocks in the basic chemical sector, 251 stocks rose while 162 fell during the reporting week, with notable gainers including Shangwei New Materials (+148.8%) and Dongcai Technology (+33.2%) [29][30] 4. Key News and Company Announcements - A fire at Covestro's TDI plant in Germany has led to significant supply disruptions, creating opportunities for price increases in TDI [31][32] - Glyphosate prices have increased to 25,500 CNY per ton, reflecting a 7.16% month-over-month rise, driven by reduced inventory levels [33] - New regulations on glufosinate are expected to constrain supply, potentially leading to price increases as the market adjusts [34]

TDI 海外扰动分析及未来价格展望 20250718 摘要 科思创德国工厂火灾导致全球 TDI 有效产能减少约 35%，预计恢复周期 至少三个月，加剧供应紧张，尤其是在欧洲市场，可能导致 2025 年第 三季度全球 TDI 供应缺口扩大至 40-50 万吨。 受供应短缺影响，国内 TDI 价格已从 12,000 元/吨上涨至 14,200 元/吨， 预计下月突破 15,000 元/吨，欧洲现货报价已达 19,500 元/吨，上涨超 过 30%。下游聚氨酯行业面临成本上升和减产压力，汽车、家电等行业 生产成本预计上升 10%-15%。 科思创预计 8 月底恢复 50%产能，9 月完成全部达产，但长期存在氯气 管道腐蚀引发二次停车的风险，以及环保审查可能延缓复产审批。华东 地区 TDI 价格预计下月在 16,000-17,000 元/吨区间，四季度维稳在 15,000 元/吨左右。 TDI 市场毛利率预计本月突破 40%-45%，三季度达到 55%-60%，四 季度维稳在 50%左右。欧洲溢价超过 3,000 元/吨，国内企业如万华化 学、沧州大化等有望扩大出口份额，预计 2025 年出口占比从 25%跳涨 至 ...

Core Insights - Synthetic polyamides are crucial industrial materials with applications in automotive, oil pipelines, electronics, sports equipment, and medical industries, with a global market size exceeding 100 billion RMB [1] - China is the largest consumer market for polyamide materials, with an annual demand reaching several million tons [1] - Polyamide 6 (PA6) and Polyamide 66 (PA66) account for over 90% of the total production [1] - The synthesis of polyamides begins with specific monomers, including lactams, dicarboxylic acids, and diamines, which contribute to the diversity of polyamide types and properties [1] - There is a growing interest in bio-based polyamides, such as PA1010, PA11, PA610, and PA410, driven by advancements in biotechnology [1] - Challenges in chemical production of core monomers include harsh conditions and low reaction efficiency, leading to a focus on developing dicarboxylic acids and diamines through synthetic biology [1] Research and Development - Professor Wang Dan's team at Chongqing University is dedicated to the biosynthesis of key polyamide monomers, including pentamethylenediamine, δ-valerolactam, and 5-aminovaleric acid [2] - The team collaborates with various companies, including Yantai Wanhua Chemical, Guangdong Kingfa Technology, Chongqing Wankai New Materials, and PetroChina [2] Industry Events - Professor Wang Dan will present at the SynBioCon 2025 conference from August 20-22 in Ningbo, Zhejiang, focusing on "Biomanufacturing of Polyamide Material Monomers and Applications of Green Low-Carbon Materials" [3] - The conference will showcase multiple technological achievements, including bio-based chemicals and materials, and L-piperidine carboxylic acid [3] - The SynBioCon 2025 will explore key directions in green chemistry and biomanufacturing, aiming to replace petroleum-based raw materials with sustainable alternatives [9]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the AI PCB industry chain, indicating it is in an upward phase of prosperity, with attractive valuations for leading companies in the sector [1][2][3] Core Insights - The AI PCB industry is expected to see a correction in market expectations as leading companies report better-than-expected performance, despite recent stock price increases [1][2] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the "anti-involution" trend, highlighting recent government actions and discussions that may impact various industries, including the automotive sector [1][2] - The chemical sector is currently at a stage where it is advisable to increase allocations, particularly in leading companies that are at the bottom of the cycle in terms of inventory, valuation, and expectations [1][3] Summary by Sections Market Review - The chemical market has shown strong performance, with the SW Chemical Index rising by 1.77%, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 0.68% [2][11] - Key events include the suspension of certain production lines by Korean companies and price increases in TDI due to supply disruptions [2][4] Recent Views from the Chemical Team - The report recommends gradually increasing positions in the sector, focusing on technology materials and price-increasing products like nitrocellulose and glyphosate [3][28] Key Chemical Product Price Changes - The report details significant price movements in various chemical products, with notable increases in TDI prices and stable prices in other segments [2][29][34] Important Industry Information - The report highlights major events affecting the industry, including production suspensions and price adjustments due to supply chain disruptions [4][28]