瑞达期货研究院 「2026.02.06」 生猪市场周报 生猪弱势调整，关注节前资金表现 研究员：张昕 期货从业资格号F03109641 期货投资咨询从业证Z001845 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 本周期货震荡收跌 联系电话：059586778969 业 务 咨 询 添 加 客 服 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 「 周度要点小结」 3 u 行情回顾：本周生猪价格震荡收跌，主力合约2605合约周度下跌0.21% u 行情展望：规模养殖场降重出栏增量，中小散户出栏积极亦较高，节前供应压力仍有，不过价格连续 下跌后刺激部分企业的惜售挺价情绪，出栏节奏可能小有波动。结合能繁母猪及新生仔猪数据分析， 近两个月出栏相对充足。需求端，下周节前备货收尾，叠加春节后需求预期减弱，对价格支撑减弱。 资金方面，注意下周春节前资金变化风险。总体来说，供需博弈局面延续，考虑到节后供需格局转松 预期，生猪盘面或弱势调整运行，不过也要关注节前资金变化风险。 「 期货市场情况」 图1、大连生猪期货价格走势图 来源：文化财经 瑞达期货研究院 u 本周生猪价格震荡收跌，主力合约2605合约周度下跌0.21%。 ...

Group 1 - The A-share market opened lower on February 6, 2026, with the major consumption index down by 1.06% as of 10:08 AM, indicating mixed performance among constituent stocks [1] - The food and beverage industry is showing a recovery trend, particularly in the liquor sector, driven by macro policy optimization, low valuation levels, and improvements in leading companies' fundamentals [1] - Optimized real estate policies and intensive domestic demand support measures have boosted market expectations for a recovery in consumer scenarios [1] Group 2 - The top ten weighted stocks in the major consumption index as of January 30, 2026, include Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye, Yili, Muyuan Foods, Luzhou Laojiao, Shanxi Fenjiu, Wens Foodstuff, Haitian Flavoring, Dongpeng Beverage, and Haida Group, collectively accounting for 67.37% of the index [1] - The consumption ETF managed by Harvest (512600) tracks the major consumption index, which encompasses leading consumer stocks across various sectors, with liquor being the largest sector, accounting for over 38% of the index [2] - Investors can also access the consumption recovery trend through the consumption ETF linked fund (009180) [3]

Group 1 - The first central document of the "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the development of new agricultural productivity and the integration of artificial intelligence with agriculture, indicating a shift towards innovation-driven growth in the agricultural sector [1][2] - The document sets a firm target for grain production at approximately 1.4 trillion jin, while also focusing on the regulation of livestock production capacity, laying a foundation for the healthy development of traditional farming [1][3] - The policy outlines systematic and detailed requirements for food security and the supply of important agricultural products, promoting the enhancement of grain quality and circulation efficiency to achieve "high quality and high price" [1][2] Group 2 - Smart agriculture is identified as a key engine for high-quality modern agricultural development, with a focus on applications such as drones, IoT, and robotics [2] - The integration of agriculture and technology is expected to open new industrial opportunities, particularly through the industrialization of biological breeding and the development of high-end smart agricultural equipment [2][3] - Investment opportunities are highlighted in three main areas: the core chain of food security and seed industry revitalization, the healthy breeding chain in livestock, and the innovation chain in smart agriculture [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese pig industry is entering a new growth paradigm characterized by a focus on cost optimization, collaboration with farmers, and overseas expansion as the three major benefits of capital, epidemic prevention, and pig prices weaken [1][4]. Group 1: Industry Transition - The three major benefits of capital, epidemic prevention, and pig prices are diminishing, leading to a shift from external capital-driven growth to internal cost-driven growth [1][4]. - The industry is experiencing a slowdown in the scale-up process, with a greater potential for upgrading existing resources through collaboration with farmers rather than building new capacities [8]. - The slaughtering industry is undergoing integration, channel transformation, and product upgrades, providing opportunities for vertical extension by pig companies [9]. Group 2: New Growth Paradigm - The new growth paradigm involves cost reduction and price increases, collaboration with farmers, and overseas expansion [2][14]. - Cost reduction strategies include improvements in breeding, management, and financial aspects, while price increases are driven by enhanced slaughter capacity utilization and breed improvements [2][17]. - Collaboration with farmers allows pig companies to leverage management and technological advantages, creating new profit opportunities [2][41]. Group 3: Domestic Market Dynamics - The domestic market is shifting towards internal optimization, with a focus on cost-driven growth as pig prices stabilize and volatility decreases [4][6]. - The average price volatility of pigs is expected to decrease, with historical data indicating a narrowing of price fluctuations from 1.3% to 0.8% over the coming years [4][6]. - The traditional high-debt, high-capital expansion model is becoming unsustainable, prompting companies to focus on internal growth and efficiency [6][15]. Group 4: Overseas Market Opportunities - Southeast Asian countries, including Vietnam, Thailand, and the Philippines, have a combined demand exceeding 100 million pigs, presenting significant opportunities for technology transfer and efficiency improvements [10][42]. - The pig farming market in Southeast Asia is characterized by a mix of large-scale enterprises and smallholders, with leading companies accelerating the replacement of inefficient capacities [12][44]. - Companies like Muyuan are targeting significant growth in overseas markets, with ambitious goals for pig production and breeding stock [42][44]. Group 5: Financial and Operational Efficiency - The financial health of leading pig companies is improving, with a focus on maintaining a stable balance sheet and reducing debt levels [44][49]. - Cost advantages are crucial for sustaining growth, with leading companies achieving lower average costs compared to industry peers [45][49]. - The ability to generate cash flow and maintain high dividend payout ratios is enhancing the attractiveness of leading pig companies [49].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported its sales figures for January 2026, indicating a mixed performance in both chicken and pork segments, with notable changes in sales volume and revenue compared to previous periods [1] Group 1: Chicken Sales - In January 2026, the company sold 112 million meat chickens, generating revenue of 2.973 billion yuan, with an average selling price of 11.72 yuan per kilogram [1] - The month-on-month changes in sales volume, revenue, and average price were -2.24%, -3.13%, and -9.50% respectively, while year-on-year changes were +18.03%, +25.50%, and +2.81% respectively [1] - The company also sold 13.1095 million white feather chicken chicks in January 2026 [1] Group 2: Pork Sales - The company sold 2.9636 million meat pigs in January 2026, resulting in revenue of 4.698 billion yuan, with an average selling price of 12.75 yuan per kilogram [1] - Month-on-month changes in sales volume, revenue, and average price were -35.05%, -11.17%, and +9.91% respectively, while year-on-year changes were +2.20%, -12.17%, and -19.15% respectively [1] - The decline in meat pig sales volume was attributed to a reduction in the company's previous piglet stocking [1] - Additionally, the company sold 420,600 piglets in January 2026 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company has approved a proposal to provide a guarantee for its wholly-owned subsidiary's bank credit application, indicating a strategic move to support its operational financing needs [1] Group 1: Company Actions - The fifth board meeting of the company approved a proposal regarding Guangdong Xuxing Animal Husbandry Technology Co., Ltd. providing a guarantee for its wholly-owned subsidiary [1] - The subsidiary, Gaozhou Wens Animal Husbandry Co., Ltd., plans to apply for a credit limit of 50 million yuan from China Construction Bank and Bank of China [1] - The total guarantee amount provided by Xuxing Animal Husbandry for this financing will not exceed 100 million yuan [1]

Group 1 - Kailong High-Tech is focusing on the embodied intelligence sector, launching the "Huilingjia" series of robots and dexterous intelligent detection equipment, which are still in the market development stage and have not yet generated revenue [2] - Wuzhou New Spring plans to establish a joint venture with Zhongzhe High-Speed Rail, focusing on the research and manufacturing of high-end equipment bearings, with a registered capital of 60 million yuan [3] - GCL-Poly has not yet received any orders in the "space photovoltaic" sector, which remains in the exploratory stage, and this has not materially impacted the company's performance [5] Group 2 - Guoxuan High-Tech plans to raise no more than 5 billion yuan through a private placement, with proceeds allocated to a 20GWh power battery project and other related initiatives [4] - Xingsheng Zhitu confirmed that its operations are normal and there are no undisclosed significant matters [6] - Nanjin Mining intends to invest 30 million USD to acquire a 10% stake in Eagle Valley Gold Company, pending regulatory approvals [7] Group 3 - Lixun Precision plans to engage in foreign exchange derivatives trading for up to one year, with a cumulative limit of 4.9 billion USD [8] - Heng Rui Medicine's HR091506 tablet application for market approval has been accepted by the National Medical Products Administration, targeting long-term treatment for hyperuricemia in gout patients [11] - Wen's shares reported a revenue of 4.698 billion yuan from pork sales in January 2026, a decrease of 11.17% month-on-month [12] Group 4 - Yingjixin reported a net profit of 177 million yuan for 2025, a year-on-year increase of 42.81% [13] - Xibu Muye's fresh milk production in January 2026 was 3,076.65 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.54% [15] - Alibaba Health's shareholding in Shuyupingmin has decreased to 5.39% following a series of share reductions [16] Group 5 - Jiangfeng Electronics plans to acquire control of Kaide Quartz, with stock resuming trading on February 6 [17] - Runze Technology is planning to issue convertible bonds to acquire minority stakes in Runhui Technology, leading to a stock suspension starting February 6 [18] - Tianqimo is planning to purchase shares of Dongshi Automotive Technology Group, resulting in a stock suspension from February 6 [19] Group 6 - ST Lifang's stock has surged by 314.93% from January 20 to February 5, leading to a suspension for risk assessment [20][21]

格隆汇2月5日丨温氏股份(300498.SZ)公布，公司的全资子公司广东温氏投资有限公司（简称"温氏投 资"）拟以自有资金受让青岛双安生物科技有限公司（简称"青岛双安"、"标的公司"）的部分股权并向 其进行增资，公司关联方温润农科壹号（珠海）创业投资基金合伙企业（有限合伙）（简称"农科壹 号"）是青岛双安的现有股东并计划转让其持有的股权，本次股权投资构成关联交易。温氏投资本次拟 投资金额不超过14,725万元；其中，受让农科壹号持有股权的交易金额为1,997.3369万元。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company has reached a consensus on international development, prioritizing "going global" as a key strategic direction and has formed a dedicated exploration team [1] Group 1: International Expansion Strategy - The company plans to initially focus on expanding its chicken business internationally, with future plans to gradually extend to pig and duck industries [1] - The company is leveraging its years of overseas experience and channel resources in animal health, agricultural equipment, and environmental protection to explore international markets [1] Group 2: Market Engagement - The company has initiated preliminary discussions with enterprises and government departments in countries such as Vietnam, Malaysia, India, and South Korea [1] - Various cooperation models are being explored, including product trade exports, technology output, and joint ventures for factory establishment [1] Group 3: Market Potential - The company believes that the global demand for livestock and poultry products is continuously growing, indicating a vast overseas market with long-term strategic value [1]

格隆汇2月5日丨温氏股份(300498.SZ)公布，公司的全资子公司广东温氏投资有限公司（简称"温氏投 资"）拟以自有资金受让青岛双安生物科技有限公司（简称"青岛双安"、"标的公司"）的部分股权并向 其进行增资，公司关联方温润农科壹号（珠海）创业投资基金合伙企业（有限合伙）（简称"农科壹 号"）是青岛双安的现有股东并计划转让其持有的股权，本次股权投资构成关联交易。温氏投资本次拟 投资金额不超过14,725万元；其中，受让农科壹号持有股权的交易金额为1,997.3369万元。 ...