咱们聊聊中国的大问题，铜资源短缺这事儿，不是什么小道消息，而是铁板钉钉的事实，你想想看，中国搞基建、做电子产品、造电动车，都离不开铜，可 手里头储备少得可怜。全球挖出来的铜储量，中国才占4%，比邻居日本还低。 数据摆在那儿——国际铜业研究组织说的明明白白，中国这储量基础薄得像纸一样。为啥这么少？地质条件不行啊，多数矿山在西部偏远地区，开采成本 高，探矿技术又赶不上欧美。结果呢？咱们想多挖点儿，却挖不出多少来，只能干瞪眼。 但问题更糟的是消耗量，中国是铜的头号用户，每年吞下全球40%以上的铜资源，这数字听着就吓人。你家用的手机、路上的电动车、工地的电线电缆，全 是铜堆出来的。 2023年，咱们消费了超过1200万吨，比老美加欧盟的总和还多。为啥这么猛？工业化浪潮没停过啊，新能源汽车一火，一台车就吃几百公斤铜；5G基站、 数据中心，更是铜老虎。可惜，中国不是铜矿大国，只能靠进口堵窟窿。那怎么办呢？一边拼命买，一边拼命用，资源跟流水一样哗哗掉。 未来前景挺棘手。专家们预测，到2030年，中国铜消耗还要涨30%，对外依存度可能突破80%。那不就等于更依赖外部了？国家战略资源的安全红线被逼近 了，企业们都喊危机了，中铝 ...

Core Viewpoint - The AI Fund Dachen State-Owned Enterprise Reform Flexible Allocation Mixed A (002258) reported a profit of 21.27 million yuan in Q2 2025, with a net value growth rate of 2.81% for the period, and a total fund size of 1 billion yuan as of the end of Q2 2025 [2][15]. Fund Performance - The fund's weighted average profit per share for the reporting period was 0.0681 yuan [2]. - As of July 21, the unit net value was 3.587 yuan [2]. - The fund's one-year return rates compared to peers are as follows: Dachen Industry Trend Mixed A at 25.22% (highest), and Dachen New Industry Mixed A at 8.85% (lowest) [2]. Investment Strategy - The fund manager indicated a strategic shift in Q2 towards resource and financial sectors to align with macroeconomic trends [2]. - The fund's average stock position over the past three years was 90.75%, higher than the peer average of 84.87% [13]. Risk Metrics - The fund's Sharpe ratio over the past three years was 0.3762, ranking 17 out of 57 among comparable funds [8]. - The maximum drawdown over the past three years was 29.27%, with a single-quarter maximum drawdown of 21.18% occurring in Q1 2022 [10]. Holdings Concentration - The fund has a high concentration of holdings, with the top ten stocks consistently representing over 60% of the portfolio for nearly two years [18]. - As of Q2 2025, the top ten holdings included Shandong Gold, Sailun Tire, Guangsheng Nonferrous, Zhongjin Gold, Haohua Technology, Zijin Mining, Huatai Securities, Yun Aluminum, China Aluminum, and Industrial Bank [18].

Group 1: Liquidity and Fund Performance - The liquidity of the rare earth ETF managed by Jiashi has a turnover rate of 6.85% with a transaction volume of 216 million yuan [3] - As of July 21, the Jiashi rare earth ETF has reached a scale of 3.145 billion yuan, marking a one-year high and ranking first among comparable funds [3] - In the past week, the Jiashi rare earth ETF has seen a significant increase in shares by 12 million, leading in new share growth among comparable funds [3] - The latest net inflow of funds into the Jiashi rare earth ETF is 78.4154 million yuan, with a total of 305 million yuan net inflow over four out of the last five trading days [3] - The Jiashi rare earth ETF has achieved a net value increase of 63.74% over the past year, ranking 131 out of 2929 in the index stock fund category, placing it in the top 4.47% [3] - Since its inception, the Jiashi rare earth ETF has recorded a highest monthly return of 41.25% and an average monthly return of 9.69% [3] Group 2: Market Trends and Price Movements - Since July, domestic rare earth product prices have shown signs of recovery, with the average market price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide reaching 477,000 yuan per ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 5.3% and a month-on-month increase of 8.2% [4] - The upcoming consumption peak season in September and October is expected to drive raw material procurement, leading to a positive outlook for rare earth prices [4] - Historical trends indicate that high overseas prices often lead to domestic price increases, potentially enhancing corporate profits and creating a dual opportunity for valuation and profit expansion in the sector [4] Group 3: Key Stocks in the Rare Earth Sector - The top ten weighted stocks in the rare earth industry index as of June 30, 2025, include Northern Rare Earth, China Rare Earth, and China Aluminum, collectively accounting for 55.58% of the index [4] - The performance of key stocks shows varied changes, with Northern Rare Earth down by 2.40% and Xiamen Aluminum up by 3.50% [6]

Market Overview - Chinese markets surged following the announcement of the Yaxia Hydropower Station project, with construction materials, power equipment, and engineering sectors seeing significant gains[3] - US stock indices reached new highs, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq increasing by 0.14% and 0.38% respectively, while the Dow Jones fell slightly by 0.04%[8] - European markets showed mixed results as investors remained cautious regarding trade negotiations, with the Stoxx 600 and UK FTSE 100 experiencing minor fluctuations[8] Economic Policy Impact - The recently signed "Big and Beautiful Act" by Trump is expected to reduce government spending while significantly cutting taxes, potentially widening the deficit[5] - The act primarily benefits middle to high-income groups, which may limit its positive economic impact but could directly benefit the US stock market through increased cash flow for these demographics[5] Commodity and Currency Movements - International oil prices saw a slight decline, with NY crude oil down 0.21% to $67.2 per barrel, while gold prices rose to a one-month high at $3,406.4 per ounce, increasing by 1.43%[25] - The US dollar index fell by 0.6%, reflecting a broader trend of declining US Treasury yields, while the Japanese yen experienced its largest single-day gain in two months following the recent elections[25] Fixed Income Market - US Treasury yields decreased, with the 2-year yield at 3.86% and the 10-year yield at 4.38%, indicating a flattening yield curve[26] - Asian bond markets remained relatively quiet due to a holiday in Japan, with Chinese investment-grade bond spreads holding steady[4] Stock Performance Highlights - TSMC raised its 2025 revenue growth forecast to 30%, driven by strong demand for advanced chips, particularly in the AI sector[7] - In the Hong Kong market, the Hang Seng Index rose by 0.68%, with significant gains in construction and materials stocks following the hydropower project announcement[10]

Group 1 - The Guozheng Free Cash Flow Index decreased by 0.08% as of July 22, 2025, with mixed performance among constituent stocks, including Dongfang Electric and Zhejiang Construction Investment hitting the upper limit, while Shanghai Steel Union and others led the decline [1][3] - The Free Cash Flow ETF (159201) fell by 0.19%, with the latest price at 1.06 yuan, and it recorded a turnover rate of 2.85% with a transaction volume of 112 million yuan [1] - Over the past nine days, the Free Cash Flow ETF has seen continuous net inflows, with a maximum single-day net inflow of 94.76 million yuan, totaling 232 million yuan, averaging 25.79 million yuan in daily net inflow [1] Group 2 - As of June 30, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the Guozheng Free Cash Flow Index accounted for 57.97% of the index, including SAIC Motor, China National Offshore Oil, Midea Group, and Gree Electric [3] - The latest financing buy-in amount for the Free Cash Flow ETF reached 6.89 million yuan, with a financing balance of 26.45 million yuan [3] Group 3 - The top ten stocks by weight in the Free Cash Flow ETF include SAIC Motor (10.18%), Midea Group (9.28%), and Gree Electric (7.56%), with varying performance in terms of price changes [5]

Group 1: Key Insights on the Construction Sector - The Yaxia Hydropower Station has officially commenced construction, with a total investment of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan, expected to drive national water conservancy investment by 3.5-6.2% in 2024 [12][10]. - The project is part of the "14th Five-Year Plan" and is anticipated to take 10-15 years for completion, with an average annual investment of 48-84 billion yuan [12][10]. - The surrounding infrastructure development is expected to create significant investment opportunities, particularly in the context of the local government's debt pressure and the need for enhanced connectivity [12][10]. Group 2: Insights on the Instant Retail Industry - The instant retail market in China is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 10%, reaching 3.8 trillion yuan by 2029, driven by policy support, technological advancements, and changing consumer habits [11][10]. - Major players like Meituan, Alibaba, and JD.com are intensifying competition in the instant retail space, focusing on differentiated offerings and efficient fulfillment to enhance user engagement [15][11]. - The industry is shifting from price competition to quality-driven strategies, which is expected to revitalize merchant profit margins and consumer spending [11][10]. Group 3: Insights on the Automotive Industry - The aging population and smaller family units in China are reshaping automotive consumption patterns, leading to increased demand for larger, multifunctional vehicles [14][3]. - The automotive market is transitioning towards a "fifth consumption era," where emotional and value-driven purchases are becoming more prominent, particularly among middle-class consumers [14][3]. - Brands that can effectively communicate emotional and social value are likely to outperform in this evolving market landscape [14][3]. Group 4: Insights on the Petrochemical Industry - The petrochemical sector is expected to see a gradual exit of outdated production capacities, particularly those over 20 years old, which could improve overall industry dynamics [18][20]. - The refining sector has a significant proportion of old facilities, with nearly 50% of capacity being over 20 years old, indicating substantial potential for improvement [20][18]. - The market for olefins and aromatics is anticipated to recover as outdated capacities are phased out, particularly benefiting private refining enterprises [20][18]. Group 5: Insights on the Banking Sector - The banking sector is expected to see a marginal improvement in profitability in the first half of 2025, driven by a decline in funding costs and stabilization of non-interest income [21][24]. - Major state-owned and joint-stock banks are projected to experience a narrowing of revenue decline, while regional banks are likely to outperform due to their strong local market positions [21][24]. - The overall credit growth is expected to stabilize around 7%, with a focus on corporate lending, which is anticipated to support banks' revenue recovery [21][24].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry Focus**: Greater China Materials, specifically lithium supply disruption and related commodities [1] - **Market Sentiment**: The industry view is considered attractive by Morgan Stanley [6] Commodity Price Movements Base Metals - **Copper**: Prices decreased by 0.1% week-over-week (WoW) with inventories increasing by 3.8% WoW [2] - **Aluminum**: Prices fell by 0.4% WoW, while inventories rose by 5.5% WoW [2] Battery Metals - **Lithium Hydroxide**: Prices for both industrial-grade and battery-grade remained flat WoW [2] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Prices increased by 2.1% for industrial-grade and 2.0% for battery-grade WoW [2] Precious Metals - **Gold**: Price decreased by 0.5% WoW, settling at US$3,339 per ounce [2] Steel - **HRC and CRC Prices**: Both increased by 1.5% WoW; rebar prices rose by 0.6% WoW [3] - **Long Steel Inventories**: Increased by 2.7% WoW, while flat steel inventories decreased by 0.6% WoW [3] Cement and Coal - **Cement Prices**: Decreased by 1.3% WoW to Rmb328 per ton [3] - **Coal Prices**: QHD5500 coal price increased by 0.3% WoW to Rmb660 per ton, with inventory rising by 3.2% WoW to 5.78 million tons [3] Glass - **Glass Fiber Prices**: Average prices fell by 1.7% WoW to Rmb3,900 per ton [4] - **Float Glass Prices**: Increased by 1.0% WoW to Rmb1,251 per ton [4] - **Solar Glass Prices**: Decreased by 2.7% WoW to Rmb18.0 per square meter [4] Regulatory and Market Developments - **CISA Actions**: The China Iron and Steel Association (CISA) is cracking down on steel export tax evasion, with 2025 steel exports expected to remain around 70 to 80 million tons [8] - **Export Restrictions**: The Ministry of Commerce has added battery cathode material preparation technology to the "Catalog of Technologies Prohibited from Export" [8] - **Production Suspension**: Zangge Lithium has suspended production as ordered [8] Analyst Insights - **Analyst Ratings**: Various companies in the Greater China Materials sector have been rated, with several receiving an "Overweight" rating indicating expected performance above the industry average [62][64] - **Investment Banking Relationships**: Morgan Stanley has received compensation from several companies in the sector, indicating potential conflicts of interest [17][20] Conclusion - The Greater China Materials sector is experiencing mixed price movements across various commodities, with regulatory actions impacting the steel and lithium markets. Analysts maintain an attractive view of the industry, suggesting potential investment opportunities despite the challenges.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus is on **China's Supply-Side Reform 2.0 (SSR2.0)**, particularly in the **manufacturing sector** including steel, solar, and cement industries [1][10][18] - The context includes ongoing **PPI deflation** and the need to address **overcapacity** and **intense competition** in various sectors [2][25][27] Core Insights and Arguments - **Resilience in Manufacturing**: Despite weaknesses in the property market, manufacturing **Fixed Asset Investment (FAI)** remains strong, indicating potential for recovery [1] - **PPI Challenges**: The Producer Price Index (PPI) is struggling in negative territory, with prolonged deflation impacting profitability across industries [1][38] - **SSR2.0 Expectations**: Authorities are expected to implement SSR2.0 to combat overcapacity and price wars, with less aggressive capacity cuts compared to SSR1.0 [2][3][15] - **Sector-Specific Measures**: The reforms will likely include capacity control, production cuts, and regulatory tightening, particularly in sectors like coal, aluminum, and steel [4][63][64] Key Differences Between SSR2.0 and SSR1.0 - **Demand Stimulus**: SSR1.0 had strong stimulus measures, while SSR2.0 is expected to have a milder approach [3][15] - **Capacity Concentration**: SSR1.0 focused on upstream sectors dominated by state-owned enterprises (SOEs), whereas SSR2.0 will address mid- and downstream sectors [3][15] - **Implementation Challenges**: Policymakers may face difficulties in enforcing reforms due to the complexity of the current industrial landscape [3][65] Potential Outcomes and Stock Picks - **Base Case Scenario**: Mild demand stimulus with modest improvements in prices and margins for steel, cement, and solar sectors. Preferred stocks include **Baosteel, Tongwei, and Conch Cement** [5][18] - **Bull Case Scenario**: Stronger demand stimulus could benefit additional sectors like lithium and batteries, with preferred stocks being **Angang, CNBM, CATL, and Tongwei** [5][18] - **Bear Case Scenario**: Less effective supply control could lead to underwhelming demand, favoring existing winners from previous cycles like **Hongqiao and Chalco** [5][18] Important but Overlooked Aspects - **Historical Context**: Previous successful reforms in coal and aluminum contrast with the underperformance of the steel sector, highlighting the need for targeted interventions [12][15] - **Trade Tensions**: Rising trade disputes, particularly in the steel and chemical sectors, could complicate the reform landscape [38][50] - **Labor Market Impact**: The expected labor market impact from SSR2.0 is anticipated to be minimal compared to previous reforms, with less aggressive capacity cuts [66][70] Conclusion - SSR2.0 is positioned as a critical response to ongoing economic challenges in China, with a focus on stabilizing prices and improving profitability across key sectors. The effectiveness of these reforms will depend on the implementation of supportive demand-side measures and the ability to manage overcapacity effectively [1][27][66]

受益的行业非常多，这个要分短期和中长期，因为时间跨度很长，预期是10-15年，但按照中国的速 度，只要资金到位，10年内就完工并非不可能。 短期来看，最开始就是水泥建材这些先行一步，考虑到水泥有个运输半径问题，因此最大龙头是本地水 泥厂的西藏天路(600326.SH)，被巨量封住一字，再是离基地项目400公里的港股华新水泥(06655)，大涨 超85%。本地产能肯定是不够的，需要从其它地区引进，其它有华润建材科技(01313)、中国建材 (03323)、金隅集团(02009)、中国建材(03323)、海螺水泥(00914)均涨超10%。 【解剖大盘】 周末没啥利空，市场主要担心的无非是日本的参议院选举，最新情况是由自民党和公明党组成的执政联 盟丧失参议院过半数议席。但靴子落地后日元并未出现明显波动，市场预期石破茂依旧可以继续履行职 责，从而稳定局面。因此港股继续跳空上行，今天涨0.68%。 扰动市场的巨头内卷也开始收敛，7月18日，根据央视新闻，市场监管总局约谈饿了么、美团、京东三 家平台企业，号召理性参与竞争。美团-W(03690)、京东集团(09618)、阿里巴巴(09988)均涨幅超2%。 而爆炸性题材 ...

"反内卷"政策预期强化催生底部金属机遇 有色金属行业周报 2025年7月 20 日 核心观点 行业周报 · 有色金属行业 有色金属行业 | | | 分析师 华立 ☎: 021-20252629 网: huali@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130516080004 阎予露 ☎：010-80927659 0: yanyulu @chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130522040004 相对沪深 300 表现图 2025-7-20 4000 资料来源：中国银河证券研究院 相关研究 【银河有色】行业周报_中美关税谈判缓和,稀土磁 材反制作用凸显 20250608 www.chinastock.com.cn 证券研究报告 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明 市场行情回顾:截止到7月18日周五收市:本周上证指数+0.69%,报 3534.48 ● 点; 沪深 300 指数+1.09%,报 4058.55点; SW 有色金属行业指数+1.82%, 报 5294.21点。分子行业来看,本周有色金属行业 5个二级子行业中,工业金 属、贵金属、小金属、能源金 ...